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Offseason | NBA Week 26

NBA Play-In: Warriors-Kings Preview, Props & Prediction

Tue Apr 16 3:09pm ET
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The Golden State Warriors sent the Sacramento Kings home last season by rallying to win a seven-game first-round playoff series with the finale set in California's capital city.

The Warriors once again will try to make it a disappointing ending for host Sacramento on Tuesday night when they face the Kings in a loser-goes-home Western Conference play-in contest.

TRENDING

The Warriors are consensus 2.5-point favorites. That includes at BetMGM, where they have been backed by 75 percent of the spread-line money while their -140 moneyline has drawn 80 percent of the money wagered.


The line has also shifted to 2.5 points at BetRivers, where Golden State opened as a 3.0-point favorite. The Warriors have also received lopsided support at the book, drawing 78 percent of the spread-line money while their -137 moneyline has been backed by a whopping 95 percent of the action.

Prediction: This feels like the end of the road for the Warriors' trio of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Where the road officially ends remains to be seen, but it won't be Tuesday night in Sacramento. --Warriors 115, Kings 108

PROP PICK

Domantas Sabonis Over 12.5 rebounds (-152 at BetRivers): This has been the most popular player prop at the book, drawing 4.2 percent of the total player prop money wagered on this game. Sabonis averaged 13.7 rebounds per game during the regular season and 14.1 in eight April games.

He had only eight in each of the past two matchups against the Warriors, but did pull down 18 in an October game at Golden State and 11 in a home loss to the Warriors five days later.

THE NEWS

Green said he expects to be roundly booed again when he steps on the court in Sacramento. His playoff antics from last season have not been forgotten as part of an electric series in which the Kings won the first two games before Golden State recovered to win four of the final five.

Curry's 50-point performance in Game 7 allowed the Warriors to advance, Green's stomping on the midsection of the Kings' Domantas Sabonis in the fourth quarter of Game 2 lives on as the series-defining visual.

"It kind of has brewed into (a rivalry)," said Green, "but for us, it's another game we have to go win. We've got to get it done."

Sabonis is having a monster season with 77 double-doubles, while teaming up with star point guard De'Aaron Fox to get the Kings in the playoffs for the second straight season after 16 consecutive fruitless campaigns.

The history of losing made last season's postseason ouster feel even harsher for Sacramento.

"It's exciting," Kings guard Davion Mitchell said of facing Golden State. "We get to get a little payback for last year. We know they're going to come here with energy. It's a home game. We know it's going to be loud. It's going to be physical. I think we are ready for it."

Sacramento floundered down the stretch with five setbacks in six games prior to hammering the visiting Portland Trail Blazers 121-82 in Sunday's regular-season finale.

The Kings were eyeing a possible top-six playoff spot when they sat 13 games above .500 with just 11 games left. But a 4-7 finish landed Sacramento in the high-stakes 9 vs. 10 game.

"We welcome anybody that's in front of us," Sacramento coach Mike Brown said. "We are just excited about an opportunity to play. And again, situations like this, we as a group right now, haven't been through. And so to go play one game right now, that's how I look at it and swing for the fences. Try to get a win."

KEY STAT

The Warriors had a hot finish with 10 wins in 12 games, including Sunday's 123-116 home win over the Utah Jazz. Golden State didn't permanently get over .500 until Feb. 15. After being five games under .500 on Jan. 27, the Warriors went 27-12 the rest of the regular season.

SERIES HISTORY

The teams split four regular-season meetings this season -- going 1-1 in both Sacramento and San Francisco.

THEY SAID IT

"We have a really good connection on this team, good chemistry, guys pulling for each other. So I've got a good feeling about what's ahead," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "I think we still have a chance to do something special.

"Now, obviously, it's (the) NCAA Tournament. We've got to get out of the first weekend here, win the first two and get to the first round, but we have a shot, so we're excited about that."

UP NEXT

The winner of the game between the No. 10 seed Warriors (46-36) and No. 9 Kings (46-36) will advance to play either the No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers or No. 7 New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. The winner on Friday advances to play the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs.

Green is confident his squad will still be playing next week.

"We just got to go win," Green said. "When this team's back is against the wall, I like how this group shows up."

Player Notes
Terry Rozier Tue Apr 16 3:00pm

Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier (neck) did not practice on Tuesday. Neck spasms continue to bother Rozier, who didn't play in any of Miami's final four games of the regular season due to the issue. If his absence extends into Wednesday's play-in game against the Philadelphia 76ers, Tyler Herro would function as the Heat's primary ball handler alongside Jimmy Butler and hold added DFS appeal. Stat-sheet stuffer Delon Wright would also play a more prominent role from the second unit in this case.

Cam Reddish Tue Apr 16 2:50pm

The Los Angeles Lakers announced on Tuesday that forward Cam Reddish (ankle) has been downgraded to questionable for Tuesday's play-in game against the New Orleans Pelicans. Dealing with a sprained right ankle, Reddish hasn't been a consistent member of LA's rotation in recent weeks anyway but could be sidelined altogether on Tuesday against New Orleans. More bench minutes would be needed from Taurean Prince on the wing for the Lakers if Reddish is unable to go, but neither are going to be recommended DFS plays either way.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Tue Apr 16 2:40pm

The Milwaukee Bucks are preparing to be without forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) for the start of their first-round series against the Indiana Pacers on Sunday, but they are hopeful treatment on his strained left calf will allow him to return sometime later in the series. It coincides with Monday's report from The Athletic's Shams Charania that Antetokounmpo's status for beginning of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals is very much up in the air, but the 29-year-old two-time MVP sounds to be doubtful at best for Game 1. For the Pacers, it's a big upgrade to the matchup outlooks of their entire offense from a DFS perspective, namely Pascal Siakam's. Damian Lillard will steer Milwaukee's offense in any games Antetokounmpo misses, with Bobby Portis being the direct fantasy beneficiary of any of the Greek Freak's absences.

Bobby Portis Tue Apr 16 9:50am

Milwaukee Bucks forward/center Bobby Portis has given head coach Doc Rivers a vote of confidence, saying he has unlocked a whole new player in him. Rivers' fit with the Bucks has been questioned heavily after he replaced Adrian Griffin in late January and finished the regular season with a losing record at the helm. He went 17-19 with the Bucks, which saw the team drop to the third seed in the Eastern Conference. Portis averaged 15.3 points and 8.9 rebounds under Rivers, a slight improvement from his season averages. The 29-year-old could end up playing a very big role in the first-round matchup against Indiana, with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) in a race to get healthy for the series.

Simone Fontecchio Tue Apr 16 9:30am

Detroit Pistons forward Simone Fontecchio (toe) has hinted that he's going to sign a long-term extension with the team in the offseason. The 28-year-old Italian is set to become a restricted free agent in the summer after completing his first two seasons in the NBA. Following an underwhelming rookie year with the Jazz, Fontecchio found his flow in 2023-24 and did particularly well after getting traded to Detroit. He notched 15.4 points and 4.4 rebounds across 30.3 minutes in 16 games with the Pistons before a toe injury ended his campaign a few weeks early. Fontecchio's performance was one of only a few bright spots for Detroit, as the team finished with the worst record in the league for a second consecutive year.

Deandre Ayton Tue Apr 16 9:20am

Portland Trail Blazers center Deandre Ayton had a rough start at his new club but feels his first year was "amazing" overall. The 2023-24 was almost like two different seasons for Ayton, as he greatly improved his performances after the All-Star break. The former first-overall pick became a 22-12 guy following the break and ended up averaging 16.7 points and 11.1 rebounds for the season. Hopefully, we will see the post-break Ayton for the entire year in 2024-25, and he will stay clear of injury troubles -- the 25-year-old saw action in only 55 games in 2023-24.

Deni Avdija Tue Apr 16 9:20am

Washington Wizards forward Deni Avdija has his sights set on improving at both ends of the court next season. He wants to be a better off-ball defender and become a better ball-handler. Avdija made a big leap in his fourth NBA campaign, averaging career-high numbers across the boards. He developed into one of Washington's top scorers, averaging 14.7 points per game, and also boosted his rebounding numbers to 7.2 per game while handing out 3.8 assists. The Israeli talent turned just 23 at the start of January and should have a lot more upside.

Kyle Kuzma Tue Apr 16 9:10am

Washington Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma plans to come back next season with a "different type of conditioning." The 28-year-old has just completed his third campaign in D.C., averaging a career-high 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, which is another career-best number for him. However, Kuzma went from averaging 35 minutes a night to clocking 32.6 minutes. He'll be carrying extra fantasy value in 2024-25 if he can stay on the court for longer. Kuzma is set to be among the team leaders for a while after Washington inked a four-year, $102 million deal with him last offseason.

Derrick Rose Tue Apr 16 9:00am

Memphis Grizzlies point guard Derrick Rose (groin, back) is planning to be back on the court with the team in 2023-24. The former MVP signed a two-year deal with the Grizzlies last summer and appears to have no plans of retiring despite another injury-riddled season. Rose, who will turn 36 in early October, played his final game of the campaign on Feb. 28 and ended up featuring just 24 times for the Grizzlies. He averaged 8.0 points and 3.3 assists in 16.6 minutes as a bench piece. He will likely be used even more sparingly next season, with a number of younger players on the rise in Memphis.

Ja Morant Tue Apr 16 8:50am

Memphis Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant (shoulder) is on schedule with his recovery and is expected to be cleared for basketball activities halfway through the offseason. The Grizzlies star had his 2023-24 campaign limited to only nine games after he underwent surgery on his right shoulder in January. Despite missing the first 25 games of the season with a suspension, Morant was on fire right away when he returned to the court, posting 25.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 8.1 assists. Hopefully, Morant doesn't suffer any setbacks over the summer, and we can finally enjoy his talents over the course of a full season. Various issues have resulted in Morant playing in only 190 regular-season the past four years.

Brandon Ingram Mon Apr 15 9:50pm

New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram (knee) doesn't carry an injury designation ahead of Tuesday's Play-In meeting with the Lakers. The 26-year-old injured his knee during a matchup with the Orlando Magic in March and was sidelined for 12 games. However, he returned for the regular-season finale versus the Lakers, amassing 13 points and five rebounds in 23 minutes. Fortunately, head coach Willie Green reported that Ingram looked good during practice on Monday, so the plan is to increase his minutes for Tuesday's rematch with Los Angeles. Of course, he'll likely see less work than usual. But Ingram is still worth considering for any DFS contest after Green's latest update.

Mark Williams Mon Apr 15 9:40pm

Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams (back), while taking questions from the media on Monday, stated he does not need surgery. He also said "he's definitely feeling better" and plans to play every game next season. While Williams' proclamation regarding his availability throughout the 2024-25 campaign could be a stretch, fantasy managers are still glad to hear things are moving in the right direction. The 22-year-old averaged a career-high 12.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks this season. However, Williams was limited to only 19 games because of a back injury. With that said, he's not worth reaching for in fantasy drafts, but he could easily surpass his ADP expectations if he stays healthy.

Immanuel Quickley Mon Apr 15 9:30pm

Toronto Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley, while speaking at his exit interview on Monday, expressed his desire to remain with the organization. The 24-year-old, who was traded to Toronto in the deal that sent OG Anunoby to the Knicks, averaged a career-high 18.6 points, 6.8 assists, and 4.8 rebounds in 38 games with the Raptors. But he will be a restricted free agent this offseason, so there should be interest from multiple clubs around the National Basketball Association. With that said, Quickley is figured to earn over $25 million on his next contract, although the Raptors will likely be more than happy to match any offers he'll garner as a restricted free agent.

De'Anthony Melton Mon Apr 15 9:10pm

Philadelphia 76ers guard De'Anthony Melton (back) didn't practice on Monday. The 25-year-old has been bothered by a back injury for most of the season. He's appeared in only seven games since the start of 2024, and he combined for only 21 minutes in the previous two contests before sitting out for Sunday's regular-season finale versus the Brooklyn Nets. It appears Melton is still having issues, so there's a good chance he won't be on the floor for Wednesday's Play-In battle with Miami. If that's the case, Cameron Payne would be a viable DFS value option for the limited two-game slate.

Joel Embiid Mon Apr 15 9:00pm

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (knee) practiced on Monday. The reigning MVP logged 32 minutes in Friday's win over the Orlando Magic, finishing with 32 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists, and one block. However, he briefly exited the contest after tweaking his knee, although he returned to finish the game. Embiid wasn't available for Sunday's regular-season finale versus the Brooklyn Nets, so there is some concern about his health. Yet, head coach Nick Nurse indicated the 30-year-old was held out for precautionary reasons. With that said, it would be surprising if Embiid weren't available for Wednesday's Play-In battle with the Miami Heat. But if he can't suit up, Paul Reed would see a surge in interest from DFS managers.

Cade Cunningham Mon Apr 15 8:50pm

Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham is coming off his best season since entering the league as the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. He appeared in 62 games, averaging 22.7 points and 7.5 assists. But the 22-year-old still has things he'd like to improve throughout the offseason, specifically his conditioning. His ballhandling is also something he vowed to focus on. Cunningham has averaged 3.5 turnovers during his career, so fantasy managers would undoubtedly appreciate an improvement in that area. In addition, while his 62 appearances were an upgrade from the 2022-23 campaign, his inability to stay healthy over the years will negatively impact his fantasy stock until he proves he can stay on the floor.

Gary Payton II Mon Apr 15 8:40pm

Golden State Warriors guard Gary Payton II (calf) won't suit up for Tuesday's Play-In meeting with the Sacramento Kings. The 31-year-old missed the final three contests of the regular season because of a strained calf. With that in mind, Payton only averaged 5.5 points and 2.6 rebounds throughout the 2023-24 campaign, so his absence won't have much of an impact on DFS managers.

LeBron James Mon Apr 15 8:30pm

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (ankle) is probable for Tuesday's Play-In meeting with the New Orleans Pelicans. James has battled a left ankle injury for months. However, he should be ready to roll for the pivotal contest. These clubs met on Sunday for the regular-season finale, with James finishing with a 28-point, 17-assist, 11-rebound triple-double. He also had five steals and a block. Of course, the 39-year-old will receive plenty of attention from DFS managers. Yet, James will receive more if Anthony Davis (back) can't suit up.

Anthony Davis Mon Apr 15 8:20pm

Los Angeles Lakers forward/center Anthony Davis (back) is questionable for Tuesday's Play-In matchup with New Orleans. These clubs met on Sunday for the regular-season finale. AD logged 33 minutes in that one, finishing with 30 points, 11 rebounds, and two steals. Unfortunately, his day ended after experiencing back spasms. As a result, Davis is now on the injury report, although he's adamant he will be out there for the pivotal contest. If he's not, Jaxson Hayes will presumably take his spot in the rotation. Hayes has averaged 11.0 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.0 steals in five starts during the 2023-24 campaign, giving him plenty of value potential for DFS managers.

Lonnie Walker IV Mon Apr 15 2:40pm

Impending free-agent guard Lonnie Walker IV appears to be noncommittal on his future with the Brooklyn Nets. "I'm just looking for a home Just looking for a team that finds me valuable. [I want to be] an important piece for a team that can consistently play We'll see how things go", Walker told reporters following Sunday's blowout loss in Brooklyn's regular-season finale against the Philadelphia 76ers. The 25-year-old swingman netted a one-year pact with the Nets last offseason and was a serviceable part of their rotation when healthy during 2023-24, averaging 9.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.8 three-pointers on 38.4% shooting from beyond the arc through 58 appearances as a reserve. Walker is a decent spot-up shooter and spark plug off the bench, but he doesn't provide enough on the defensive end to consistently handle big minutes.