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NBA Finals Game 6: Preview, Props & Prediction

Thu Jun 19 3:38pm ET
Field Level Media

The Indiana Pacers return home for Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night trying to stave off elimination while not knowing exactly what they'll be able to get out of star point guard Tyrese Haliburton.

Battling a calf strain, Haliburton is expected to try to play against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who hold a 3-2 series lead.

Haliburton's uncertain status is a significant wrinkle for odds and props ahead of Game 6.

ODDS & TRENDS


The Thunder were a consensus 6.0-point favorite as of mid-day Thursday. However, the spread was sitting at 5.5 at books including FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings and BetMGM, where Oklahoma City has been backed by 58 percent of the spread-line bets and 61 percent of the money.

The line had moved from 6.5 to 6.0 points at BetRivers, where the Thunder have drawn 83 percent of the spread-line money while the total bets have been almost even. The book reported taking a $57,660 wager on Oklahoma City at -6.5.

The 219.5 total points line has seen the Over draw 69 percent of both the total bets and money.

KEY STATS

Indiana has won eight consecutive home games following a loss, while Oklahoma City has failed to cover the spread in its past six road games following a win.

The home team has won the first half in each of the Pacers' past 13 games, according to BetRivers.

PROP PICKS

--T.J. McConnell Over 10.5 Points (-107 at BetRivers): This has understandably drawn the highest percentage of prop money at the book with the uncertain status of Haliburton. McConnell is averaging 11.2 points through the first five games, although 18 of them game in Monday's Game 5 loss in which the Pacers fell behind big midway through the fourth quarter.

--Pascal Siakam 20+ Points (-120 at DraftKings): Another market impacted by Haliburton's injury, this has been the most popular play at DraftKings. Siakam is coming off a huge Game 5 in which he poured in 28 points. However, that's the only game in the series in which he has topped 21.

THE NEWS

As Oklahoma City turned a 2-1 series deficit to a 3-2 advantage, Haliburton has struggled from the field, hitting just 7 of 21 shots from the field over the past two games, including a 1-for-11 clip from 3-point range. He has totaled just 22 points in 70 minutes.

"You don't underestimate great players. In the case that he plays, we're expecting his best punch," Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. "You don't underestimate great teams. In the event he doesn't play, we're expecting Indiana's best."

Heroes of the series emerged from almost every segment of the rotation.

Haliburton's near-triple-double in Game 3 was underscored by Indiana's 49 bench points, 27 from Bennedict Mathurin and five steals from McConnell. Andrew Nembhard shifted to point guard in Haliburton's place in the Eastern Conference semifinals last year, when the Pacers overcame a 3-2 series deficit to beat the Knicks in Games 6 and 7.

"I think obviously Tyrese is a big part of what we do. Whether he plays or not, I think it's going to be a team thing," Siakam said. "We have to together all step up. The importance of the game, we just all have to take a step forward. It's going to be down the line.

"I don't think any one of us should feel like one person is going to have to do it," the Indiana forward continued. "It's going to be collective."

Siakam put up 28 points and stepped up in the fourth quarter of Game 5 without Haliburton. More of the same is in order if the Pacers wish to keep up with OKC's 1-2 punch.

NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a combined 66 points in Games 4 and 5 for the Thunder. But the national spotlight has been shared with Oklahoma City's Jalen Williams, who tallied 67 points over the same span, including a 40-point outburst in Game 5 with the Pacers setting a defense determined to help and force the ball out of SGA's hands.

"It makes me sound like a jerk," Williams said of not answering his phone the past week to keep the focus on winning a title. "A big thing for us -- we've done a really good job of focusing on us."

Gilgeous-Alexander said being "on the cusp of winning is not winning, and the way I see it, winning is all that matters."

He credited the organization for building the culture and environment to make the Thunder a marvel of a turnaround story.

Gilgeous-Alexander said he's buoyed at this point in the season by the closeness of the locker room and how much fun the entire team is having.

"Focusing on Game 6," Gilgeous-Alexander said. "Focusing on just being the best version of myself for this basketball team for whatever it takes -- however many games it is, however many possessions are needed, however many moments. Stay in the moment, and just try to stick to that script."

Oklahoma City led 3-2 in the Western Conference semifinals and lost Game 6 to Denver before a dramatic effort to take Game 7. Williams said Oklahoma City didn't "come out ready to play" in that Game 6.

Carlisle said the Pacers are leaning on the experience of trailing the Knicks 3-2 last summer, when Gainbridge Fieldhouse turned into an energy-feeding advantage for Game 6.

"Buckle down, stand strong," Carlisle said of his message to the team.

But with SGA and Williams both averaging 30 or more points the last three games, Oklahoma City expects nothing less than greatness on Thursday.

"Most of the great players are art. They're unbelievably unique," Daigneault said. "That's every great player. Siakam is like that. Haliburton is like that. They're one of one. All the great players are. ... They're great players, but they do it inside the team (concept) and don't suffocate the team."

Daigneault isn't yet talking specifically about the spoils at stake Thursday night.

"We've tried to take a stack mindset to everything we've done. Even when the team was rebuilding. You can't skip steps in the process," Daigneault said. "We want to win the game tomorrow.

"But the most important thing we can do is prepare today, prepare tomorrow. Play the first possession really well. And then the next possession. Win today. The minute you start to drift mentally into the future and into the past, it impacts your ability to stack the next thing."

THEY SAID IT

--"We're always trying to put ourselves in our opponent's shoes. Zero and zero mindset. We're not introducing any new concepts right now, we're just relying on the psychological habits we've built over time." -- Thunder coach Mark Daigneault of Oklahoma City's focus with a 3-2 lead.

--"I think it depends on who you ask. I have to understand the risks, ask the right questions." -- Haliburton said of how he'll decide to play. "But I'm a competitor. I want to play. I'm going to do everything in my power to play." --Haliburton on his playing status Thursday. He scored 22 points and was one rebound shy of a triple-double in Indiana's Game 3 victory on June 11.

PREDICTION

This has the feeling of a potential Thunder rout as the Pacers have fought tooth-and-nail to reach this point but are now facing Game 6 with a limited Haliburton at best. --Thunder 120, Pacers 110

Player Notes
Damian Lillard Thu Jul 17 6:20pm

According to ESPN's Shams Charania, free-agent guard Damian Lillard (Achilles) agreed to a three-year, $42 million contract to return to the Portland Trail Blazers. Lillard, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, spent 11 seasons with the Blazers before being traded to Milwaukee in September 2023. Unfortunately, he wasn't nearly as productive with the Bucks, most recently averaging 24.9 points throughout the 2024 campaign, 7.3 points fewer than he has in his final year in Portland. Lillard also battled numerous health issues last season, including a blood clot in his calf and a torn Achilles sustained during the postseason. After the Bucks waived him this offseason, it was reported Lillard wasn't in a rush to sign with a team. However, he will now rehab before once again suiting up for the Blazers, where he'll have a chance to revive his career.

Brooks Barnhizer Thu Jul 17 2:40pm

On Wednesday, Oklahoma City Thunder forward Brooks Barnhizer logged 19 points (8-of-12 on field goals, 3-of-6 on free throws), nine rebounds, one assist, one steal, and two blocks during a 95-81 Summer League win over New Orleans Pelicans. The 23-year-old had a team-high nine boards and 19 points across 24 minutes. Drafted 44th in the NBA Draft last month, Barnhizer has impressed at Summer League, posting averages of 12.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists across 25.3 minutes over the previous four contests in Vegas.

Isaiah Collier Thu Jul 17 1:30pm

Utah Jazz guardIsaiah Colliercollected 17 points, three assists, two rebounds and two steals across 32 minutes in a 86-76 Summer League win over the Wizards on Wednesday. Collier continues to produce during Summer League as he posted a double-double in Monday's matchup against the Spurs. The 29th overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft will look to battle for an expanded role on a young Jazz team after averaging 8.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists across 71 contests during the 2024-25 campaign.

Caleb Houstan Thu Jul 17 1:20pm

According to Michael Scotto of USA Today, free agent guard/forward Caleb Houstan and the Atlanta Hawks have agreed to a one-year deal on Thursday. Houstan landed on the open market after the Magic declined his team option. Last season, the 22-year-old averaged 4.1 points and 1.3 rebounds in 13.6 minutes per contest across 58 games. After the All-Star break, he shot 50.7 percent from beyond the arc. He could grab a regular role at the bottom of the Hawks' rotation, but he will likely not make an impact in fantasy during the upcoming season.

AJ Johnson Thu Jul 17 12:50pm

Washington Wizards guard AJ Johnson finished with 25 points, five rebounds and three assists across 35 minutes in an 86-76 Summer League loss to the Utah Jazz on Wednesday. Johnson has strung together two impressive outings after collecting 20 points during Tuesday's Summer League action against the 76ers. This upcoming NBA season will be Johnson's second, and at 20 years old, he will likely struggle to establish a regular spot in the Wizards' rotation.

Leaky Black Thu Jul 17 12:20pm

Washington Wizards forward Leaky Black finished with 10 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, four blocks, and two steals in over 33 minutes in an 86-76 win over the Jazz during Summer League action on Wednesday. Black's 11 rebounds and four blocks were game highs in the contest. Despite a solid Summer League outing, the 26-year-old is not a player that should be on fantasy managers' radar. He hasn't played in an NBA game since the 2023-24 regular season.

Johni Broome Thu Jul 17 9:40am

Philadelphia 76ers forward/center Johni Broome posted a second consecutive double-double in the Las Vegas Summer League on Wednesday, racking up 22 points, 13 rebounds, one assist, two steals, and one block in a 90-82 triumph against the Dallas Mavericks. The second-round pick from Auburn was a bit quiet in his first few Summer League outings, but he has now demonstrated his full potential in the past two games. By picking up Broome, Philadelphia has boosted its frontcourt depth behind the injury-prone Joel Embiid, and he could become a valuable contributor for the team.

Jahmir Young Thu Jul 17 9:30am

Chicago Bulls guard Jahmir Young put on a show in Wednesday's Summer League clash against the Milwaukee Bucks, scoring 40 points on 13-for-18 shooting in a 102-96 victory. It marks the most points ever a Bulls player has scored in the Summer League, and it's also the highest scoring tally during this year's tournament in Las Vegas. Young was unconscious from downtown, going 7-for-8, and finished 7-for-9 at the charity stripe. His work included one rebound, three assists, and two steals. As an undrafted rookie, Young made only five appearances for the Bulls last season, but he could be in line for more work in 2025-26 since the Bulls' backcourt is now a bit thinner following Lonzo Ball's departure.

Tyrese Proctor Thu Jul 17 9:10am

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Tyrese Proctor scored a whopping 40 percent of his team's points in Wednesday's Summer League encounter with the Sacramento Kings, finishing a 94-86 loss with 35 points on 11-for-24 shooting. Proctor's efficiency wasn't great, but he went 9-for-9 at the free-throw line and dropped four three-point bombs with 11 attempts. The 21-year-old from Australia wrapped things up with three rebounds, four assists, and two steals. Across his previous three Summer League outings, Proctor had managed only 34 total points. This was an impressive effort from the Duke product, but we will probably see only glimpses of him in the stacked Cavaliers backcourt during the 2025-26 regular season.

Cody Williams Thu Jul 17 9:00am

Utah Jazz forward Cody Williams posted a team-high 23 points in Wednesday's 86-76 Summer League victory against the Washington Wizards, shooting 9-for-16 from the field and 3-for-6 from downtown. He also did his part defensively by picking up a pair of steals and finished his line with two rebounds and two assists. Williams had a slow start to Summer League action in Salt Lake City, averaging 11.7 points, but he's been sharp with his play in Las Vegas. With four games played, Williams has notched 20-plus points three times. The 20-year-old is working hard to prove himself enough to secure a regular spot in the Jazz rotation for his sophomore season.

LeBron James Wed Jul 16 9:10pm

According to Dan Woike and Joe Vardon of The Athletic, the Dallas Mavericks aren't interested in "gutting its roster" in a deal for Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (knee). It was reported that the multi-time All-Star hasn't had discussions with the Lakers involving a trade. However, James' no-trade clause, age, and $52.6 million salary are barriers preventing teams, not just the Mavericks, from engaging in meaningful discussions about a potential deal. The 40-year-old is still playing at an exceptional level, most recently finishing the 2024 campaign by averaging 24.4 points, 8.2 assists, 7.8 rebounds, and 1.0 steals in 70 contests. Of course, there will be more updates and rumors regarding James and his future moving ahead. With that in mind, he should continue to provide consistent fantasy production, assuming he stays healthy, no matter where he suits up before calling it a career.

Josh Hart Wed Jul 16 8:40pm

New York Knicks forward Josh Hart (finger) underwent a procedure on his right ring finger. He sustained the injury during the postseason. Fortunately, the 30-year-old is expected to resume basketball activities "later in the summer." Even better, he's not projected to miss any time to begin the 2025 campaign. Hart is coming off another quality year, finishing the 2024 season by averaging 13.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.5 steals. He's also one of the most durable players in the National Basketball Association, logging 234 games in the last three seasons. Hart is always a triple-double threat whenever he's on the floor. His willingness to play through injuries is an added bonus for fantasy managers. While his shooting percentages could improve, his contributions in the other statistical categories gives him plenty of value from a fantasy standpoint.

Bradley Beal Wed Jul 16 2:20pm

On Tuesday, Shams Charania of ESPN reports that three-time NBA All-Star guardBradley Beal agreed to a contract buyout with the Phoenix Suns and plans to join the Los Angeles Clippers on a two-year, $11 million deal with a player option after clearing waivers. Beal provides the Clippers with another offensive threat after Norman Powell was traded earlier in the month. Fantasy managers should be aware that Beal's minutes will likely be reduced since the Clippers' offensive attack revolves primarily around Kawhi Leonard and James Harden.

Rayan Rupert Wed Jul 16 1:50pm

Portland Trail Blazers guardRayan Rupert logged 24 points, three rebounds, two steals and one assist in 28 minutes during Tuesday's 93-87 Summer League victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. Rupert posted a game-high in points and three-pointers, shooting 4-for-6 from beyond the arc. Last season, the 21-year-old averaged 3.0 points, 1.3 rebounds, and 0.5 assists in 8.8 minutes per game across 52 contests. He posted some strong outings towards the end of last season, so he may get a bigger role in 2025-26. However, Rupert isn't someone worth looking at in fantasy leagues.

Gregory Jackson Wed Jul 16 1:10pm

Memphis Grizzlies forwardGG Jackson II finished with 13 points, eight rebounds, six assists and two blocks in 26 minutes during a 96-84 Summer League loss to the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday after sitting out Saturday's game due to an illness. The 20-year-old missed the first half of the 2024-25 campaign due to a broken fifth metatarsal in his right foot and was limited to just 29 regular-season appearances. After several impressive Summer League outings, Jackson could see an uptick in minutes, providing the Grizzlies with an offensive threat off the bench during the upcoming 2025-26 season.

Johni Broome Wed Jul 16 12:50pm

On Tuesday, Philadelphia 76ers center Johni Broome finished with a double-double in a 74-58 Summer League win over the Wizards. During the contest, Broome logged 14 points, 10 rebounds, one assist and one steal in 29 minutes. He was selected by the 76ers with the 35th pick in the 2025 NBA draft after a standout season at Auburn, where he averaged 18.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 2.1 blocks across 36 appearances. Barring any injuries with a crowded 76ers frontcourt, Broome will likely find himself out of the rotation or in the G League to start the upcoming campaign.

Ja'Kobe Walter Wed Jul 16 9:10am

Toronto Raptors shooting guard Ja'Kobe Walter made big plays at both ends in Tuesday's 101-97 victory over the Denver Nuggets in the Las Vegas Summer League, leading all scorers with 26 points and snagging a game-high seven steals. Following a couple of rough shooting performances in Vegas, Walter finished a solid 8-for-16 from the field. He was 4-for-11 with the three-ball and shot 6-for-7 at the line, wrapping up his day at the office with four rebounds and one block. The Raptors saw a few encouraging performances from Walter last season, but he needs to stay healthy to establish himself in the rotation. The 20-year-old missed the start of his rookie campaign due to a shoulder injury and made just 52 appearances in total.

Ajay Mitchell Wed Jul 16 9:00am

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Ajay Mitchell played a leading role in Tuesday's 92-75 Summer League victory over the Orlando Magic, recording a game-high 27 points with seven rebounds, four assists, two steals, and one block. Mitchell had a hot hand throughout the game, shooting 9-for-13 from the field, including 1-for-2 from outside, and 8-for-9 at the free-throw line. The 23-year-old looked promising during his debut campaign in the NBA, but a toe injury interrupted Mitchell's 2024-25 campaign. He's now making up for lost time in the Summer League, having already made six appearances. In Las Vegas, Mitchell has averaged 19.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game.

VJ Edgecombe Wed Jul 16 8:40am

Philadelphia 76ers shooting guard VJ Edgecombe made his Las Vegas Summer League debut in Tuesday's matchup against the Washington Wizards, filling the box score in a blowout win. He notched 15 points, six rebounds, four assists, two steals, and one block in 30 minutes on the floor. Edgecombe missed Philadelphia's first two games in Las Vegas due to a left thumb sprain suffered during a Summer League contest in Salt Lake City on July 5. The 19-year-old Baylor product can be happy with his production on Tuesday, although Edgecombe was inefficient with his scoring, going 4-for-14 from the field, including 1-for-6 from downtown. All of his points came in the second half. Philadelphia faces the Dallas Mavericks in another Summer League contest on Wednesday, but it's uncertain if Edgecombe will play.

Dominick Barlow Wed Jul 16 8:30am

Philadelphia 76ers forward Dominick Barlow has been shut down for the remainder of the Summer League, per Adam Aaronson of PhillyVoice.com. After signing a two-way contract with the 76ers, Barlow suited up twice for the team in Las Vegas. He notched 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.5 steals in 22.1 minutes. In 96 career NBA games, Barlow has averaged 4.2 points and 2.4 rebounds in 12.5 minutes. He's been trying to find his footing in the league with the San Antonio Spurs and Atlanta Hawks. While his playing time in Philadelphia isn't guaranteed either, at just 22 years old, Barlow still has plenty of time to grow and improve his game.


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