Guest of the League
Rocori Est. 2022
FFL: Week 4 | NFL: Week 4

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 4

Player Notes
Carl Granderson Sep 28 4:40am ET
Carl Granderson

The New Orleans Saints D/ST has gotten off to an impressive start in 2024. They have held each of their first three opponents to less than 20 points and have allowed the sixth-fewest points (44) to date. The team also boasts the second-most total takeaways (seven) and ranks in the top ten in sacks. In Week 4 they will go up against the Atlanta Falcons who have done well to keep quarterback Kirk Cousins safe but recently lost starting linemen Drew Dalman (ankle) and Kaleb McGary (knee) to injury. That puts edge rusher Carl Granderson in a good spot to add to the four sacks he has already recorded this season. Fantasy managers wondering where to turn to fill their D/ST slot in Week 4 could do a lot worse than New Orleans.

From RotoBaller

Jamaal Williams Sep 28 4:30am ET
Jamaal Williams

New Orleans Saints running back Jamaal Williams could be in line for improved production in Week 4. Over the first three weeks of the season, he has not had much to offer from a fantasy standpoint with the Saints dedicated to force-feeding Alvin Kamara (hip/ribs). Kamara popped up on the injury report this week, though, and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons. If Kamara ends up getting a week off then Williams will soak up much of that work but would face some competition from a now-healthy Taysom Hill (chest). Williams played in three of the four games Kamara missed in 2023 and logged 41 rushing attempts for 100 yards, and a touchdown on the ground, and nine catches for 28 receiving yards. Modest totals for sure, but this year's version of the Saints offense has been far more dynamic with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak in charge. Fantasy managers desperate for running back help should monitor pre-game injury reports and only plug Williams into lineups if Kamara is ruled out.

From RotoBaller

Rashid Shaheed Sep 28 4:30am ET
Rashid Shaheed

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed was a main contributor to the team's 91-point explosion over the first two weeks of 2024. Week 3 was an absolute dud, though, as he came up empty on his five targets against the Eagles. In Week 4, the Saints head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in an NFC South matchup. The Falcons are allowing just 6.04 yards per pass attempt and have given up the fewest deep balls to opposing wide receivers in the league, which does not bode well for Shaheed. Furthermore, Shaheed usually thrives against zone defenses but Atlanta's ranks in the top 10 so far this year. Shaheed's prospects may get a boost depending on the health of fellow wideout Chris Olave (hamstring) who left Friday's practice early and is now listed as questionable. Shaheed would benefit from an uptick in targets if Olave is absent, but otherwise should not be counted on for a boom game in Week 4.

From RotoBaller

Taysom Hill Sep 28 4:30am ET
Taysom Hill

New Orleans Saints utilityman Taysom Hill (chest) is ready to get back to action in Week 4. The notorious jack of all trades missed the Saints' previous outing against the Eagles while dealing with a chest injury suffered in Week 2 against the Dallas Cowboys. Hill was mostly left out of the Saints' prolific offensive output in their first two games of 2024, getting a total of 10 touches and 55 scrimmage yards but that might change when the team takes on the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. With running back Alvin Kamara (hips/ribs) limited in practice all week and wide receiver Chris Olave (hamstring) added to the injury report on Friday, Hill may be in line for his first big game of 2024. The boom-or-bust cycle of Hill's career skews towards the latter but given the health of his teammates, his versatility, and the overall production (or lack thereof) at tight end league-wide, Hill might be a risk worth taking at tight end in Week 4.

From RotoBaller

Blake Grupe Sep 28 4:30am ET
Blake Grupe

New Orleans Saints kicker Blake Grupe hit field goals from 34 and 38 yards out in Week 3 against the Philadelphia Eagles. His second professional season started with a bang in Week 1 when he converted five extra points and had four field goals (including two from over 50 yards away). The two games since produced more modest results, with scores of eight and six fantasy points. In Week 4 he has a good chance of turning in another double-digit effort against the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed the most fantasy points to kickers thus far in the new season. Fantasy managers looking for options in Week 4 can plug Grupe in with confidence.

From RotoBaller

Derek Carr Sep 28 4:20am ET
Derek Carr

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (groin) popped up on the team's injury report for Week 4, though he was a full participant in practices this week and carries no injury designation going into his next game. After scoring six total touchdowns (five passing, one rushing) in the Saints' back-to-back blowouts to start the season, Carr failed to crack double digits in fantasy points in Week 3. In Week 4, the Saints face the Atlanta Falcons who have allowed a paltry 6.04 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks thus far in 2024. Carr has the additional challenge of missing his starting center, Erik McCoy (groin), and possibly Chris Olave (hamstring) who left Friday's practice early and is questionable for the NFC South matchup. Carr might still be a play in two-quarterback formats but in most leagues, streamers should avoid him in Week 4.

From RotoBaller

T.J. Watt Sep 28 3:10am ET
T.J. Watt

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been stout defensively this season, surrendering the fewest yards and points per contest in the NFL. They are primed for further success at home against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. Although Indianapolis' offense has scored a respectable amount of points through three weeks, Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson currently leads the league in interceptions thrown. If running back Jonathan Taylor struggles against a Steelers defense allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game, Richardson could be forced to throw the ball while dealing with immense pressure from DPOY favorite T.J. Watt. Fantasy managers should lock Pittsburgh's DST into lineups of all shapes and sizes on Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Chris Boswell Sep 28 3:00am ET
Chris Boswell

Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell has been very productive to start the 2024 campaign and will look to keep rolling against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. While Pittsburgh's offense is not necessarily firing on all cylinders, the Steelers' defense has been dominant, often leaving the offense little work to do to get within Boswell's range. He may not offer the same weekly upside as a kicker on a team with a more potent offense, but Boswell is about as steady as they come. For what it's worth, the Colts are tied for the fifth-most fantasy points per game allowed to kickers this season, and with Indianapolis giving up the second-most offensive yards in the league, fantasy managers can start Boswell with confidence on Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Isaac Guerendo Sep 28 3:00am ET
Isaac Guerendo

San Francisco 49ers rookie running back Isaac Guerendo will look to build on a modest increase in usage in Week 4 when the team hosts the New England Patriots. Last week against the Rams in Los Angeles, Guerendo took five carries for 19 yards and zero passing targets. The fourth-round pick saw his offensive snap count grow to 10 after combining for four total in his first two games. It's very unlikely that Guerendo will become usable for fantasy players in mainstream leagues without an injury to Mason, given head coach Kyle Shanahan's tendency to use his main back as a bell cow. In Week 4 Guerendo should remain on fantasy benches. However, he represents nearly as good an injury stash as any in the league, so managers who can afford to hold, should.

From RotoBaller

Cam Little Sep 28 3:00am ET
Cam Little

Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Cam Little is not a great starting option against the Houston Texans in Week 4. The Jaguars offense has struggled to start the year, putting up just 40 points through three games. The rookie kicker has nailed four out of five kicks so far, with his one miss coming from 43 yards. He hasn't had many opportunities to kick field goals with the offense struggling, but he has shown he has the leg to nail kicks over 50 yards. If the offense were to show improvement in Week 4, Little could become a decent fantasy option, as the offense on paper should be getting into field goal range more often. For now though, with just 18 fantasy points through three games, the upside for Little as a fantasy kicker does not seem to be there. Until the offense improves, Little is best left off of fantasy rosters in Week 4.

From RotoBaller

Pat Freiermuth Sep 28 2:40am ET
Pat Freiermuth

Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth is yet to find the end zone or surpass 40 yards receiving in a contest in 2024 but still offers reliability against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. The fourth-year pro is the only tight end in the NFL to catch at least four passes in every game this season. While it is fair to have concerns regarding Freiermuth's lack of touchdown upside, it is difficult to ignore consistent involvement at a position that has been so devoid of fantasy production as of late. The Colts have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, making this a matchup Freiermuth can take advantage of. The 25-year-old can be trusted as a low-end starting option on Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Brian Thomas Jr. Sep 28 2:30am ET
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has shown to be a reliable receiver heading into Week 4 against the Houston Texans. The rookie receiver has 11 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown so far. In an offense struggling to do much, BTJ has stood out as a rookie who can be a good NFL receiver and improve as the season goes along. His big-play ability is his main strength, which he showed off in Week 2 with two catches for 94 yards, but he also can win in shorter areas. Against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, he put up 5 catches for 48 yards, a solid output given the team only scored 10 points and got blown out. In a matchup with the Texans, the secondary has been solid to start the year, but BTJ has the talent to take advantage as long as Trevor Lawrence can get him the ball. Fantasy managers should feel good about starting Brian Thomas Jr. in their flex spots in Week 4.

From RotoBaller

Jordan Mason Sep 28 2:30am ET
Jordan Mason

San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason will take on the New England Patriots in a home interconference matchup on Sunday. Last week, Mason was disappointing for fantasy managers, coming into the game against the Rams in Los Angeles as a Top-5 consensus RB but finishing as the RB25 with 9.8 half-PPR points. It was the first time in the young season that Mason failed to reach the end zone. New England's run defense has been decent, ranking as the 13th-toughest matchup for opposing running backs in half-PPR. In LA last week the 49ers also worked rookie Isaac Guerendo into the mix, handing him five carries for 19 yards after only getting one total carry in San Francisco's first two games. It seems unlikely that number would grow much this week given how head coach Kyle Shanahan tends to ride his lead back, but the development is worth noting. Deebo Samuel (calf), also has a chance of returning and peeling off a handful of carries as well. Nevertheless, Mason has done an excellent job filling in for Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) so far in this run-centric, potent offense, which puts him right in the thick of the RB1 ranks again in Week 4.

From RotoBaller

George Pickens Sep 28 2:20am ET
George Pickens

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens has been relatively quiet for fantasy purposes so far in 2024 and will look to turn things around against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. Pickens once again led the Steelers in targets last week but was outshined by Calvin Austin III, who scored a 55-yard touchdown. Because of his ability to make plays downfield, Pickens is always a viable fantasy option, but his upside is even more solidified this week with the Colts surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points per contest to opposing wideouts. As quarterback Justin Fields continues to get comfortable in Pittsburgh's offense, it's clear that Pickens will be his most reliable option. His guaranteed opportunities and high ceiling make Pickens an incredibly appealing fantasy WR2 this week.

From RotoBaller

Najee Harris Sep 28 2:10am ET
Najee Harris

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris has handled the sixth-most rushing attempts through three weeks and should see plenty of opportunities against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. With Jaylen Warren (knee) officially out for Sunday's contest, Harris is in line for even more work both on the ground and as a pass-catcher. Although Cordarrelle Patterson is likely to get involved, it's worth noting that Harris was targeted five times by quarterback Justin Fields last week. The Colts have surrendered the most rushing yards in the NFL this season, making Harris even more appealing for fantasy purposes. Fantasy managers can confidently roll with Harris as an RB2 with upside this week.

From RotoBaller

Gabriel Davis Sep 28 2:00am ET
Gabriel Davis

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Gabe Davis serves as his usual boom-or-bust self in Week 4 against the Houston Texans. Davis has been earning targets but not turning them into much, going down in yardage each of the first three games. He also hasn't recorded more than three receptions. Last week against his former team in what could have been a revenge game, he disappointed, putting up just two receptions for 18 yards. Until the Jaguars offense improves, it will be hard to support multiple receiving options on a weekly basis. As a deep threat, it is extra hard to be fantasy relevant. The receiving core is wide open for someone to step up, but after three games that seems more likely to be Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk, or even Evan Engram when he comes back from injury. Davis is best left on benches in Week 4 against the Texans.

From RotoBaller

Justin Fields Sep 28 1:50am ET
Justin Fields

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields has led the team to three straight wins and will look for similar success in a home matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are surrendering the second-most total yards of offense and have been vulnerable against fantasy quarterbacks so far this season. With how dominant Pittsburgh's defense has been, it's difficult to expect an abundance of points in this contest, but Fields can get the job done for fantasy purposes as a threat through the air and on the ground. He is averaging over nine carries per game and scored his first rushing touchdown of the campaign last week. Fantasy managers should view Fields as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 this Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Hunter Henry Sep 28 1:40am ET
Hunter Henry

New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry should be avoided in most fantasy leagues ahead of Week 4 versus the San Francisco 49ers. Henry's production has been inconsistent through three games this year. He did catch eight passes for 109 yards in Week 2, but outside of that contest, he's averaging just two catches and 14 yards per week. Fantasy managers can't bank on Henry exploding again this Sunday and should instead prepare for a lower-volume performance. A very unfavorable matchup also awaits Henry as the Niners have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. They've also surrendered the fewest receptions, fewest touchdowns, and second-fewest receiving yards to the position. Needless to say, the stars are not aligning for Henry this week. With several key factors working against him, the veteran tight end can be benched in most leagues.

From RotoBaller

Joey Slye Sep 28 1:40am ET
Joey Slye

New England Patriots kicker Joey Slye isn't worth rostering in fantasy football ahead of Week 4 versus the San Francisco 49ers. Slye is having one of his better seasons so far in terms of accuracy, converting all three extra points and going 6-for-7 on field goals. However, a lack of opportunities has made it difficult to trust the veteran leg. The Patriots' offense is regarded as one of the worst in the league and will continue to have trouble reaching scoring range in Week 4, especially against a stingy 49ers defense. In fact, Slye wouldn't be the first kicker to struggle against this San Francisco unit. The Niners have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to kickers this season, a mark that includes zero field goals from beyond 50 yards. The Patriots' subpar offense and the 49ers' impressive defense combine to keep Slye off the radar ahead of Sunday's contest.

From RotoBaller

Demario Douglas Sep 28 1:30am ET
Demario Douglas

New England Patriots wide receiver Demario Douglas has emerged as one of the team's more sought-after waiver wire additions ahead of his Week 4 clash with the San Francisco 49ers. The second-year pass-catcher was not involved nearly as much as expected through the first two games, but veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett made it up to him with seven completions for 69 yards in Week 3 this year. The Patriots enter Sunday's game as 10.5-point underdogs, which means they may need to adopt a pass-heavy approach so that they can keep pace with the 49ers and focus on their own time of possession. Douglas figures to be one of Brissett's preferred options in the passing game going forward. He ranks as a WR3/FLEX in leagues with at least 14 teams.

From RotoBaller