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FFL: Week 4 | NFL: Week 4

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 4

Player Notes
Rashee Rice Sep 30 1:30pm ET
Rashee Rice

The Kansas City Chiefs are saying that wide receiver Rashee Rice (knee) is still undergoing tests on his injured knee on Monday, but he will not be available to play in Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints. Rice injured his knee early in the Week 4 win over the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers and is feared to have suffered a season-ending torn ACL. It hasn't been confirmed yet, but fantasy managers need to be bracing for the announcement that the 24-year-old pass-catcher is indeed out for the year. With Marquise Brown (shoulder) also expected to miss the entire season and with running back Isiah Pacheco (leg) on Injured Reserve with a fractured leg, the Chiefs are running out of playmakers on offense. Rookie Xavier Worthy will now have a much bigger role, as well as receivers Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman and tight end Travis Kelce.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Badie Sep 30 1:20pm ET
Tyler Badie

Denver Broncos promising running back Tyler Badie (back), who left the Week 4 win over the New York Jets on a backboard on Sunday, has full movement of his arms and legs and is back in Denver with the team, according to sources. Badie suffered a back injury that could land him on Injured Reserve, but there's a chance he can return this season. The 24-year-old would be forced to miss at least four games he he's placed on IR. A sixth-rounder in 2022 by the Baltimore Ravens out of Missouri, Badie had 11 carries for 86 yards in three games this year and was potentially going to have a shot at a bigger role with both Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin struggling early on out of the backfield. Before being stretchered off on Sunday, he lost a fumble on his only carry and recorded two catches for minus-four yards receiving against the Jets.

From RotoBaller

Shaq Thompson Sep 30 1:20pm ET
Shaq Thompson

Carolina Panthers standout linebacker Shaq Thompson (Achilles), who was playing his best football early on this year, is believed to have torn his Achilles in the Week 4 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and is out for the season, according to sources. Thompson is undergoing an MRI exam on Monday to confirm the devastating injury. The 30-year-old former 25th overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft out of Washington had recorded 35 tackles (19 solo) in the first four games in 2024 after playing in just two games last year. It's a massive blow the rest of the way for a Panthers defense that already had plenty of question marks. Thompson will eventually be placed on Injured Reserve and will have surgery on his torn Achilles. Fantasy managers will want to target Carolina's defense even more so moving forward in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Jacoby Brissett Sep 30 1:10pm ET
Jacoby Brissett

After the New England Patriots' blowout loss on the road to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4 on Sunday, head coach Jerod Mayo once again reiterated that quarterback Jacoby Brissett is the starter moving forward. "Jacoby is 100% our starter, and that's how we're going to look at this going forward," Mayo said. Brissett went 19-for-32 for 168 yards, one touchdown and a pick-six in the 30-13 loss to the Niners and also fumbled once. A report surfaced before Sunday's game that rookie first-round quarterback Drake Maye isn't exactly close to being ready to take over, so it's more about Maye's progress than Brissett actually earning the gig. Through four weeks, Brissett checks in as the QB32 with 536 passing yards, two touchdowns and a pick in four games while leading New England to a league-worst 13.0 points per game. Even in superflex leagues, fantasy managers should be looking to avoid him in Week 5 against the division-rival Miami Dolphins.

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Shaq Thompson Sep 30 12:43pm ET
Shaq Thompson

Carolina Panthers LB Shaq Thompson (Achilles) suffered a torn Achilles and will miss the remainder of the season, according to sources Monday, Sept. 30.

From TheHuddle

Rome Odunze Sep 30 12:10pm ET
Rome Odunze

Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze had a quiet outing in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams, catching just one of his three targets for 10 yards. This performance was a letdown after his breakout game the previous week. The return of veteran receiver Keenan Allen (heel) likely affected Odunze's targets, as he shifted back to a No. 3 role with Allen coming off a two-game absence. Consequently, Odunze saw a notable decline in production. Throughout his rookie season, he has struggled to make a consistent impact, recording two or fewer receptions in three of four games. His target and yardage totals this week marked his lowest yet, leaving him with ample opportunity for improvement in a Week 5 home matchup against the Panthers.

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Cole Kmet Sep 30 12:10pm ET
Cole Kmet

Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet had a modest outing against the struggling Los Angeles Rams secondary, finishing with three catches for 34 yards, including a long reception of 22 yards. After a quiet performance in Week 1, Kmet has maintained steady involvement in the offense, registering at least three targets in each of the last three games. However, this game was a disappointment following his breakout performance last week. The return of veteran receiver Keenan Allen (heel) may have affected Kmet's target share, as he experienced a notable reduction in workload compared to his 10-catch game against the Colts in Week 3. Kmet tied for second on the team in receptions and was the runner-up in receiving yards for the day. Nonetheless, his production on Sunday is likely more in line with his typical performance than what he achieved in the loss to Indianapolis.

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Keenan Allen Sep 30 12:10pm ET
Keenan Allen

Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen had a muted return from injury in Week 4 against the Rams. He finished the game with just three receptions for 19 yards on three targets. Coming back from a two-game absence due to a heel injury, Allen played a secondary role in the passing attack as Caleb Williams threw for only 157 yards and one touchdown. However, he may see a more prominent role in a favorable Week 5 home matchup against the Panthers. While Allen is a game-changer, his value for fantasy managers largely depends on the Bears' ability to establish a more consistent offensive rhythm.

From RotoBaller

Jacoby Brissett Sep 30 11:43am ET
Jacoby Brissett

New England Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett is '100% our quarterback going forward,' according to head coach Jerod Mayo.

Fantasy Spin: Brissett is the QB32 after four weeks, and he's maybe a matchup play in two-QB leagues.

From TheHuddle

D.J. Moore Sep 30 11:40am ET
D.J. Moore

Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore capitalized on a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Rams' struggling secondary in Week 4. He caught three of six targets for 22 yards and a touchdown in the Bears' 24-18 victory. Moore tied with Cole Kmet for second on the team in both receptions and targets. The highlight of his day came when he made a perfectly executed nine-yard touchdown catch from Caleb Williams, extending the Bears' lead to 17-9 late in the third quarter. Although his production was slightly lower this week, it's likely an outlier, considering his consistent involvement in previous games. Moore will look to rebound against a weak Panthers secondary at home in Week 5.

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D'Andre Swift Sep 30 11:30am ET
D'Andre Swift

Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift delivered his best performance of the season in Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams. Swift totaled 165 yards from scrimmage and scored a touchdown, leading the team in rushing and receiving yards. The Bears successfully established a run game by utilizing Swift and getting him into open space. He finished with 16 carries for 93 yards, averaging a solid 5.8 yards per carry, and added seven receptions for 72 yards. Notably, he broke off a 36-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, extending the lead to 24-15. Signed to a three-year, $24 million contract in March, Swift managed 114 total yards through the first three weeks, averaging only 1.8 yards per carry. The Bears combined for 131 rushing yards after only managing 63 against the Colts. Swift also achieved season highs in receptions and receiving yards, making it a successful outing both on the field and for fantasy football owners. With the lead-back role firmly in his hands, he will next face the Panthers' defense in a Week 5 home matchup.

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Roschon Johnson Sep 30 11:30am ET
Roschon Johnson

Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson saw increased usage in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams, serving as a change-of-pace option to help secure tough yards. He scored a one-yard touchdown in the second quarter, capitalizing on a strip-sack by Montez Sweat deep in Rams territory. Johnson's downhill rushing style made him an ideal choice for goal-line situations, while D'Andre Swift, who had struggled early in the season, found his rhythm once the Bears got him into open space. Chicago finished the game with 131 rushing yards, a significant improvement from the 63 they managed against the Colts. After impressing in his first outing of the season in Week 3, Johnson solidified his role as the clear No. 2 running back behind Swift. Although Swift had his best game yet, Johnson may have established himself enough to maintain his change-of-pace role and secure future goal-line opportunities.

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Caleb Williams Sep 30 11:20am ET
Caleb Williams

This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams had a strong performance against the Los Angeles Rams. Once Williams and the Bears' offense found their rhythm, they began to string together the kind of possessions the team and its fans hope to see regularly. It was Williams' most efficient outing yet, as he posted a quarterback rating of 106.6 and led four scoring drives. He threw for 157 yards and a touchdown, following a Bears rookie record of 363 yards on 52 attempts in a loss to Indianapolis the previous week. Williams described this game as a step forward, completing 17 of 23 passes, including a nine-yard touchdown to DJ Moore in the third quarter. Notably, he did not commit any turnovers after facing issues in the previous game, where he was intercepted twice and lost a fumble. This week, he took care of the football and orchestrated multiple drives that resulted in touchdowns. Williams bounced back from two consecutive games with multiple turnovers, showcasing an encouraging development as he prepares for a favorable Week 5 matchup against the Panthers next Sunday.

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Wil Lutz Sep 30 11:10am ET
Wil Lutz

Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz came into the Week 4 contest against the New York Jets with a perfect 9-for-9 mark on field goals and 3-for-3 mark on extra-point tries through the first three weeks of the 2024 season. Unfortunately, he was not able to extend his perfect streak in the 10-9 upset win over the Jets on Sunday, going 1-for-2 on his field goals while making his lone extra-point try in a game that featured just one touchdown on the day. The 30-year-old's first miss of the year came from 50 yards out as the Broncos tried to make it a four-point lead late in the contest. In his defense, the field was wet from a steady rain all day. Lutz has been reliable so far in his time in Denver, dating back to last year, but he measures up as a volatile fantasy kicker in an offense that is averaging just 15.5 points per game through four weeks. He will have a little more streaming potential in deep fantasy leagues in Week 5 against the division-rival Raiders in Denver.

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Josh Reynolds Sep 30 11:00am ET
Josh Reynolds

Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds entered the Week 4 contest against the New York Jets as Denver's leading receiver through the first three games. But in the 10-9 rain-soaked upset victory on Sunday over the Jets in Week 4, rookie quarterback Bo Nix only looked Reynolds' way two times, and he was unable to catch either of the two targets. We warned fantasy managers that Reynolds was an extremely volatile and desperate flex play in an offense that is among the worst in the NFL after four weeks of the 2024 campaign. Reynolds and the Broncos should be able to move the ball much better in a Week 5 divisional matchup versus the Las Vegas Raiders, but expectations should remain low for Broncos pass-catchers not named Courtland Sutton. The 29-year-old caught 11 of his 17 targets for 174 yards and no touchdowns through the first three games.

From RotoBaller

Isaiah Likely Sep 30 11:00am ET
Isaiah Likely

Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely led the tight end group in receiving again but didn't ultimately make much of a difference in a blowout victory over the Buffalo Bills. The Coastal Carolina product finished with one reception for 26 yards on two targets. His counterpart, Mark Andrews, only received one target and failed to catch it. Likely's Week 1 performance is starting to look like a big outlier, as both tight ends have combined for just eight receptions and 107 yards since then. Likely seems to be the better of the two, as Andrews has posted goose eggs in the last two games, but neither one of them has contributed much towards a fantasy win. The Ravens will go on the road in Week 5 and take on one of their AFC North rivals in the Cincinnati Bengals.

From RotoBaller

Greg Dulcich Sep 30 11:00am ET
Greg Dulcich

Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich failed to haul in his only target of the day in Sunday's 10-9 upset win over the New York Jets on the road on Sunday. Both teams struggled to move the ball on a rain-soaked afternoon in the Big Apple, with Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix throwing for a total of 60 yards. Dulcich had five catches on 11 targets for 28 yards through the first two weeks of the season, but he has zero catches on just one target in the last two weeks as Nix continues to struggle as a passer early in his NFL career. Things are looking up for this lackluster offense with a Week 5 divisional clash at home against the Las Vegas Raiders, but Dulcich shouldn't be anywhere near starting fantasy lineups, even in two-TE leagues. Nix can barely support one receiver in fantasy, let alone an oft-injured tight end.

From RotoBaller

Mark Andrews Sep 30 10:50am ET
Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews continues his disappointing stretch of play in another winning effort by the team. The veteran especially looked bad after uncharacteristically dropping a wide-open catch that would have gone for a first down. That was his only target of the game as Lamar Jackson only threw the ball 18 times with the ground game cutting up the Bills' defense with ease. Andrews now has a total of six receptions for 65 yards and no touchdowns while putting up goose eggs in two straight weeks. His yards per game total of 16.3 is the worst mark of his career so far with his second-worst coming in at 34.5 during his rookie campaign. Moving forward, Andrews isn't a reliable starter, even in their AFC North matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5.

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Raheem Mostert Sep 30 10:43am ET
Raheem Mostert

Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert (chest) is unlikely to play Monday, Sept. 30, against the Tennessee Titans.

Fantasy Spin: De'Von Achane will be a high-end option at running back if you still have the spot available. Jeff Wilson Jr. will back him up, but he's really only a desperation play at flex if you were holding out hope of playing Mostert.

From TheHuddle

Jaleel McLaughlin Sep 30 10:40am ET
Jaleel McLaughlin

Denver Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin and the team's ground game was the most productive its been all year in the 10-9 upset win over the New York Jets on Sunday in Week 4. McLaughlin averaged 5.11 yards per carry on nine attempts, finishing with 46 rushing yards. He caught his only target for no gain. The 24-year-old could see more run moving forward if the back injury that caused Tyler Badie to be carted off is serious, but McLaughlin is still the clear No. 2 to Javonte Williams in an offense that has averaged 15.5 points through four games, which is fifth-worst in the NFL. McLaughlin was out-touched 18 to 10 and out-gained 80 to 46 in the win over the Jets. Even in a plus matchup in Week 5 against the division-rival Raiders, McLaughlin will belong on benches in most fantasy leagues. He's currently rostered in 22% of Yahoo leagues and has very little to no standalone value right now.

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