RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 4
Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams had 94 yards off 19 carries in Sunday's loss to the Bears. He added four catches for 10 yards. While the 24-year-old didn't have the three touchdowns he had in Week 3, he found the end zone once in Week 4. With at least one score in each of the Rams' four contests this season, Williams is a must-start in Week 5 versus the Packers, considering he'll remain even more involved while Puka Nacua (knee) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) remain on the shelf.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 224 yards and a pick off 20-for-29 passing in Sunday's loss to the Chicago Bears. While the signal-caller had another accurate outing, he continued to struggle. It's very apparent the injuries to Puka Nacua (knee) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) have significantly decreased Stafford's fantasy potential. With that in mind, he's not an ideal fantasy option for the challenging matchup versus the Packers in Week 5. Keep him out of the starting lineup.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills have declared OT Michael Edwards, CB Taron Johnson, LB Terrel Bernard, LB Edefuan Ulofoshio and C Will Clapp inactive for Week 4.
From TheHuddle
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Xavier Legette had six receptions for 66 yards in Sunday's loss to the Bengals. He also scored a touchdown, the first of his career, finding the end zone off an eight-yard toss from Andy Dalton. The rookie was quiet in the Panthers' first three games. However, with Adam Thielen (hamstring) on the injured reserve list, Legette should benefit, giving him value as a flex option in Week 5 against the Chicago Bears.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jacob Cowing (shoulder) is questionable to return to Sunday's meeting versus the New England Patriots. The rookie hasn't done anything to benefit fantasy managers. However, his potential absence isn't ideal for a Niners' offense that has dealt with plenty of injuries over the last few weeks. With that said, there should be an update on his condition soon.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers LB Fred Warner (ankle) left the Week 4 game against the New England Patriots due to an ankle injury. He had seven total stops, four solo tackles, a pass defensed and a 45-yard interception return for touchdown before departing. He is questionable to return.
From TheHuddle
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (groin) finished Sunday's loss to the Bengals by amassing a team-high seven catches for 83 yards. He also scored, finding the end zone off a 21-yard pass from Andy Dalton in the third quarter. The wideout struggled during the first two weeks of the 2024-25 campaign. However, he has thrived since Dalton took over for Bryce Young. With at least seven catches and a touchdown in each of Johnson's last two games, he should be starting in all fantasy lineups when the Panthers meet the Bears in Week 5, assuming Dalton remains under center.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard finished the Week 4 loss to the Bengals by totaling 104 yards and a touchdown off 18 carries. He added four grabs for 17 yards. The 25-year-old didn't do much in the Panthers' first two games. However, with Andy Dalton now under center, Hubbard has thrived. With his added level of involvement, he's at least a flex option in Week 5 versus the Chicago Bears.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold went 20-for-28 for 275 yards, three touchdowns and one interception against the Green Bay Packers in Week 4. He also rushed for 15 yards on seven carries during the game.
Fantasy Spin: Darnold has thrown at least two touchdowns in every game this season and was able to connect with multiple targets in the passing game this week. He can be a possible low-end No. 1 quarterback in deeper leagues or a bye week replacement next week.
From TheHuddle
Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones rushed for 93 yards on 22 carries against the Green Bay Packers in Week 4. He also caught four passes for 46 yards during the game.
Fantasy Spin: Jones has been involved in both the running and passing game in every game this season and should continue to be a big part of the offense moving forward. He should be a starting option in all fantasy leagues.
From TheHuddle
Carolina Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton finished Sunday's loss to the Bengals by throwing for 220 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick off 25-for-40 passing. He added three carries for nine yards. The veteran signal-called has played well since taking over for Bryce Young. The offense has also operated more efficiently. While things could change regarding the Panthers' quarterback plans, Dalton has earned a spot in multi-quarterback formats for the Week 5 clash with the Chicago Bears, assuming he remains under center.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (ribs) returned to Sunday's meeting with the Patriots. The veteran didn't play in Week 3 against the Rams because of a hamstring injury, so the team is certainly happy to see him back on the field. Of course, with Kittle back in the mix, Eric Saubert's level of involvement will decrease significantly.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs earned eight targets in the Packers' narrow 31-29 loss to the division-rival Minnesota Vikings in Week 4. Despite Doubs' targeted involvement from returning starting quarterback Jordan Love, Doubs could only bring in four of those eight targets for 39 receiving yards. The Packers threw the ball a whopping 54 times and Doubs was on the field for 65-of-76 snaps per PFF's Nathan Jahnke, but Doubs could not find the end zone or provide some relief for fantasy managers that started him. The injury to Christian Watson (ankle) could condense some targets for the Packers if Watson misses time, but with the Packers heading west to face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5, Doubs is a middle-of-the-road flex option.
From RotoBaller
According to Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, wide receiver Rashee Rice's knee injury "is not good." He revealed this during a halftime interview of Sunday's matchup with the Chargers, although he declined to provide specifics. Of course, fantasy managers are expecting the worst, hoping that Rice won't miss a significant amount of games. He'll likely undergo further testing soon, including an MRI. But with Rice likely out of the mix moving ahead, Skyy Moore, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce should see added attention from Patrick Mahomes.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Bears running back D'Andre Swift had 93 rushing yards, seven catches, 72 receiving yards and a touchdown in a win against the Rams. Dynasty Analysis: Swift jumped off milk cartons across the country in this one and finally posted a decent game for the Bears. He had just 68 yards in the previous three games, so this was a much needed "get right" game for Swift as many dynasty managers had already bailed on him. Swift will need to string together a few solid performances before restoring confidence with many, but this was certainly a step in the right direction. He remains a dynasty hold as one game likely won't increase his value too much.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was knocked out of an upset win against the Steelers on Sunday. Dynasty Analysis: He completed 3-of-4 passes for 71 yards and rushed for another 24 yards before leaving with a hip injury. Richardson was hurt, then returned the following play only to see the Colts put him in harm's way again, allowing him to get smashed on a run towards the goal line. Richardson couldn't continue and went to the locker room. He spent the second half on the sidelines, indicating this may not be a long-term issue. However, his durability is again in question as he couldn't finish yet another contest. His dynasty arrow is starting to fade as he hasn't been able to stay on the field consistently.
Dynasty | Jaguars rookie receiver Brian Thomas had six catches for 86 yards and a touchdown in a loss against Houston. Dynasty Analysis: Thomas has proven to be a solid receiver in the NFL already and clearly has a bright future ahead of him. While he has yet to post a truly dominant performance, it seems his weekly floor is going to be one of the safer ones in dynasty leagues this season. While the Jags are clearly struggling, Thomas has solidified his dynasty value already and remains a solid rookie hold in leagues.
Dynasty | Texans wide receiver Nico Collins had 12 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown in the Texans win against Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: Collins has established himself as a true WR1 in dynasty leagues this season with nearly 500 yards in just four games so far this season. Even better, he has a whopping 43 targets on the season, with three different games featuring at least ten. The questions about Collins breakout season last year being a fluke have been answered and he looks like a player to build around in dynasty leagues at this point. At just 25 years old, Collins looks like one of the "untouchable" players in dynasty leagues when it comes to trades right now.
Dynasty | Bucs rookie running back Bucky Irving had 49 rushing yards and a touchdown in a win against the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: He added a catch for six more yards. The big story here is obvious - Irving has created a true time-share with Rachaad White and simply looks like the better player after the first month of the season. White matched him with 49 yards on ten carries of his own, but Irving is getting some important work and is averaging more than five yards per carry on the season. This is a story to watch as Irving is starting to really make things interesting in Tampa Bay. The Bucs may have found something here and dynasty managers who took Irving in the middle rounds of rookie drafts may have themselves a steal.
Dynasty | Jags running back Tank Bigsby had 90 yards on seven carries in a loss against Houston. Dynasty Analysis: This is now getting interesting in Jacksonville. At this point, Bigsby has looked better than Travis Etienne and he actually had the first touches in the backfield today. Etienne led the team in carries today (11) but was only able to post 50 yards, while adding one catch for another ten. Dynasty managers who ignored the smoke this Summer about the Jags wanting to ease the load on Etienne have been burned as this looks like a timeshare moving forward. As a result, Etienne's dynasty arrow is sinking by the week.
