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FFL: Week 3 | NFL: Week 3

Random Draft Thoughts

Tue Aug 11 1:41pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Moore can build on last season


It is early, but I have already done a lot of drafts. I have participated in drafts on our site, drafts for magazines/other websites, and “expert” drafts. So I thought now would be a good time to talk about some things I have been seeing in those drafts. I want to give our readers an inside look at some things happening in drafts and how I have approached drafts this season.

And away we go. . . . .

I don’t quite understand the disdain for D.J. Moore this season. He had a breakout year last season, finishing with nearly 90 receptions for 1,200 yards. The only thing that held him back from being an elite receiver was a lack of scores (four touchdowns). Much of the reason people don’t like Moore is the addition of Teddy Bridgewater. Many think he is not a positive for Moore, lacking the ability to make big plays while being more of a dink or dunk quarterback. My counter to that is Moore had Kyle Allen as his quarterback much of last year and still produced his big numbers. Is Bridgewater really a downgrade over Allen? I don’t think so. I think the opposite, so I have been getting Moore in a lot of drafts this year, being able to nab him in the fourth or so round.

Moore is one player not getting much love, but a receiver that is getting plenty of hype is Allen Robinson. He had a big year last season, finishing with nearly 100 receptions for about 1,200 yards. And he did this with Mitchell Trubisky as his starting quarterback. There is debate on the quarterback this year with Trubisky getting challenged by Nick Foles. The way I look at it, though, is Foles isn’t much of an upgrade if he does beat out Trubisky. I really think Robinson hit his ceiling last year. I don’t think he can do better. With that said, I don’t want to use a second or third round pick to get him. I would rather go with a guy like Kenny Golladay or the aforementioned Moore. I just think they have a higher ceiling than Robinson, who is not on a single roster of mine right now.

Running backs are going super quick again this year. Teams are not messing around with the position. If you wait on the position, you are going to need some lesser options to hit for you. The top backs don’t last long. Finding a solid No. 2 back in the fourth round or later is going to be hard this season. Sometimes you have to go against the group think if you want to win big, but I’m not sure I do that this year. I have been getting two backs in the first three rounds of nearly every draft. I just don’t feel comfortable trying to salvage the position later in the draft. Plus, the receiver position is really deep this year. I think some receivers that you can get in the middle rounds can really outperform their draft slots.

I love Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson from a fantasy perspective but I don’t think I’ll get them on any of my teams this year. You are going to have to use a second or third round pick to grab them. I just can’t do it. The quarterback position remains deep and I feel I can get somewhat close to the production of both those studs with guys I get later, using a platoon method based on matchups and hot play. I really like going back-to-back with my quarterback picks, getting them in like the eighth and ninth rounds. You can get guys like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford in those spots. Plus, I have been getting Kyler Murray at times in the seventh round. I would much rather have Murray in the seventh than Jackson in the second.

Kenyan Drake has been a target of mine in early drafts, but it seems like many are feeling the same way about him. I have seen his price continue to get higher as the season draws closer. He is getting nabbed in the first round of nearly every draft I’m in now, so if you want him, you are going to have to pay up. And I don’t have a problem getting him at the end of the second round. I think his ceiling is huge in this offense. Remember, if he plays a full season with the Cardinals last year, he finishes with more than 1,600 total yards and 16 touchdowns.

I mentioned how I believe the receiver position is really deep this year. Here are some of my mid-round targets that I think can produce big: Jerry Jeudy, Marquise Brown, Justin Jefferson, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Boyd and Preston Williams. These guys are all capable of outproducing their current ADP and can be solid fantasy options in their current situations. I have a lot of shares of these guys on my current teams.

Running back Tevin Coleman is one player I have been targeting in early drafts. You can get him in the mid to late rounds of drafts. He was a disappointment last year but for his price tag, I think he is worth the risk. Raheem Mostert is the only back ahead of Coleman on the depth chart right now. And Mostert remains unproven in my eyes, especially as a workhorse back. Coleman should get double-digit touches on a weekly basis in this offense and is an injury away from starting for one of the best run offenses in all of football.

If I can get a Zach Ertz or Mark Andrews in the sixth round, I will do it. But for the most part, that hasn’t happened much outside of a few drafts. With that said, I’m waiting on tight end, much like the quarterback spot. I will grab a couple tight ends in the middle rounds, using a platoon system for the position this year. I like the potential of some of the guys you can get later, especially players like Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle. I think you can get by with going with two of those guys instead of acting early on Travis Kelce or George Kittle. With the running back position going so early this year, I think using a second or third round pick on a tight end might be a mistake. The only way I take one of the elite tight ends early is if I have two solid backs already on my roster. You might be able to get away with that strategy since the receiver position has so many quality options this year.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Player Notes
Mike Gesicki Sep 23 6:10pm ET

Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki is coming off a fantastic game versus the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. He was able to haul in eight of his 11 targets for 130 yards and one touchdown last week. It was a strong showing from Gesicki who was coming off a dud during the season opener. He'll get a favorable matchup versus the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. The same team that allowed tight end Jonnu Smith to score two touchdowns on them last week. Gesicki should be considered a top tight end candidate for his Thursday night matchup with Jacksonville.

From RotoBaller

DeVante Parker Sep 23 6:10pm ET

Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (hamstring) has been removed from the injury report heading into Week 3 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was limited during Monday and Tuesday's practices, but was upgraded to full on Wednesday. Parker is coming off a Week 2 performance where he hauled in five receptions for 53 yards and one touchdown in the loss to the Buffalo Bills. He'll get a matchup against the Jaguars Defense that allowed four passing touchdowns last week. Parker should have high-end WR3 upside for this matchup.

From RotoBaller

Preston Williams Sep 23 6:10pm ET

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Preston Williams has been held to just three receptions through the first two weeks of the regular season. He was only able to haul in one of his five targets versus the Buffalo Bills last week. However, he'll get a more favorable matchup versus the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. Williams hasn't shown much promise this season, but fantasy owners should be able to trust him as a WR3 here. Another bust week might turn him into a possible cut-candidate in some formats.

From RotoBaller

Matt Breida Sep 23 6:00pm ET

Miami Dolphins running back Matt Breida is not looking like a trustworthy option this season. He has had trouble getting anything going through the first two games of the season. Breida rushed seven times for 37 yards in the loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. He's in a three-back committee, which is going to limit his value even more. He'll get a more favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. However, there is no need to even consider starting Breida unless it's a 14-team deep league.

From RotoBaller

Jordan Howard Sep 23 6:00pm ET

Miami Dolphins running back Jordan Howard has been unable to find much room to run during the first two games of the regular season. However, Howard has found his way into the end zone during both contests. Sadly, Howard only has 11 total rushing yards on the season through two games. He's part of a three-back committee, which is going to somewhat limit his value. He does appear to get a majority of the work on the goal line. Fantasy owners should consider him a touchdown-dependent RB3 for his matchup versus the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3.

From RotoBaller

Ryan Fitzpatrick Sep 23 5:50pm ET

Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has an intriguing matchup versus the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. Fitzpatrick is coming off a performance where he completed 31 of 47 passing attempts for 328 passing yards and two touchdowns. Sadly, the Dolphins weren't able to get the win during that Week 2 matchup. However, Fitzpatrick bounced back nicely after his Week 1 dud. He'll now get a favorable matchup against the Jaguars on Thursday night. Fitzpatrick is not a recommended option in most formats, but could be a streaming choice for quarterback-needy teams in Week 3.

From RotoBaller

Myles Gaskin Sep 23 5:50pm ET

Miami Dolphins running back Myles Gaskin has quickly created fantasy value for himself this season. He's coming off a Week 2 performance where he rushed seven times for 46 yards and caught six passes for 36 yards through the air. However, his value is somewhat limited due to the fact he's in a three-back committee, but he's outperformed both other backs on the roster. Gaskin has promising upside in PPR leagues during his Week 3 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The team is likely going to continue to involve him heavily in the rushing and passing attack.

From RotoBaller

Dalton Schultz Sep 23 5:20pm ET

Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz is suddenly a viable fantasy starting tight end in 12-team leagues. Schultz led the Cowboys in targets in Week 2 with 10, catching nine passes for 88 yards and a touchdown. With that kind of usage and with another potentially high-scoring game on tap for Week 3, Schultz could see another TE1 finish. With Blake Jarwin (knee) done for the season, Schultz will remain the top receiving tight end for the high-octane Cowboys offense.

From RotoBaller

Greg Zuerlein Sep 23 5:20pm ET

Dallas Cowboys kicker Greg Zuerlein is a strong fantasy kicking option for Week 3 lineups. Zuerlein has made three of his four field goal tries and all six of his extra points so far this season. The Cowboys will be taking on the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, making for another possibly high-scoring game which should lead to kicking opportunities for Zuerlein. He's a starting kicker in 12-team leagues.

From RotoBaller

Dallas Cowboys Sep 23 5:20pm ET

The Dallas Cowboys Defense is not a recommended start in Week 3 fantasy lineups. Despite the team coming back to win in Week 2, it's no secret that the Cowboys defense struggled quite a bit against the Falcons, allowing 39 points. This week, they'll take on a red-hot Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks in what should be another high-scoring contest. The Cowboys defense hasn't been able to put any pressure on opposing quarterbacks so far this season, and Wilson and the Seahawks shouldn't have too much trouble putting up points. Most fantasy leagues will have far better DST options on the waiver wire this week.

From RotoBaller

Amari Cooper Sep 23 5:10pm ET

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper has been an effective fantasy wide receiver through two games despite not coming down with a touchdown yet. Cooper has totaled 16 catches for 181 yards on 23 targets. Facing the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, the Cowboys should have another high-scoring offensive performance and Cooper is about as good a bet as anyone to score his first touchdown of 2020. Cooper is a mid-tier WR1 for Week 3.

From RotoBaller

Davante Adams Sep 23 5:10pm ET

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday. It's not a great start to the week, but Adams still has two more days to get back on the field heading into Week 3 against the Saints in what could be a high-scoring affair. The 27-year-old went off for 14 catches, 156 yards and two touchdowns in the season-opener, but he had just three receptions for 36 yards in the Week 2 win over Detroit while he battled his injury. Adams is a must-start, high-end WR1 whenever he's playing. Keep a close eye on his practice status the rest of the week. If for some reason he can't play, Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling would both become intriguing flex plays.

From RotoBaller

Michael Gallup Sep 23 5:10pm ET

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup has been mostly disappointing through the first two weeks of the season, but he's a solid fantasy bet for a Week 3 potentially high-scoring affair with the Seattle Seahawks. So far, Gallup has turned 10 targets into five catches for 108 yards. He's been on the field for almost every offensive play, however, seeing the field on 96% of Week 1's offensive snaps and 91% of Week 2's. In a game sure to feature some high scores, Gallup is a solid WR2 option with touchdown upside.

From RotoBaller

Michael Thomas Sep 23 5:10pm ET

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday while he tries to recover from a high ankle sprain. Thomas missed the Monday night loss to the Raiders and could miss several more weeks. Fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting to get the All-Pro receiver back in Week 3 against the Packers. As we witnessed against Las Vegas, you can't really count on New Orleans' other receivers in Emmanuel Sanders or Tre'Quan Smith in the absence of Thomas. This game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair, but Sanders remains a boom/bust WR4/flex for much deeper leagues.

From RotoBaller

CeeDee Lamb Sep 23 5:10pm ET

Dallas Cowboys rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb comes in right on the WR2/3 turn for a good Week 3 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Lamb somewhat surprisingly tied for the team lead in wide receiver targets with nine in Week 2. Week 3 draws another potentially high-scoring contest, with Lamb sure to see many targets for a second consecutive week. He's playing behind Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in terms of offensive snaps, but he's being targeted heavily when he in on the field. In Week 1, Lamb was in on 82% of the team's offensive snaps, with a similar 83% number in Week 2. He's certainly made the most of his snaps, turning 15 targets into 11 catches for 165 yards so far this season.

From RotoBaller

Jimmy Garoppolo Sep 23 5:00pm ET

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said that he'd be surprised if quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) is ready to play in Week 3 against the Giants. Shanahan expects Nick Mullens to get the start. Garoppolo is dealing with a minor high ankle sprain and is week-to-week for now. The Niners have a favorable matchup against New York this week, but it seems as if their entire offense is injured at the moment. The return of tight end George Kittle (knee) would be much welcomed, but regardless, Mullens is a desperation fantasy streamer as a QB2 in superflex leagues if Jimmy G sits out this weekend.

From RotoBaller

Julio Jones Sep 23 5:00pm ET

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring), who aggravated his injury in the Week 2 loss to the Cowboys, did not practice on Wednesday. While the veteran Jones often misses practice and plays through nagging injuries, this is one to keep a close eye on the rest of the week leading up to Week 3 against the Bears. The All-Pro pass-catcher had just two receptions last week and will be facing a stingy Bears Defense if he plays, and he would likely be at less than 100 percent. Jones is a must-start WR1 each and every week, but he's become riskier. If he is forced to rest, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage would see more targets from quarterback Matt Ryan.

From RotoBaller

D.J. Chark Sep 23 4:50pm ET

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver D.J. Chark (back, chest) is listed as questionable for the Thursday night game against the Dolphins. Chark was limited in practice this week, so he should have a good shot at playing in Week 3. The 24-year-old has 109 receiving yards and a touchdown on seven catches through two weeks, so he'll remain a fine WR2 for Thursday night's game if he's active. If he is forced to sit out, rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. and Keelan Cole would become much more attractive as flex options in a good matchup against a Miami secondary that will be missing safety Byron Jones.

From RotoBaller

Tony Pollard Sep 23 4:50pm ET

Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard is not a standalone fantasy option in Week 3 lineups. Pollard remains a potential league-winning backup, but as long as Ezekiel Elliott is on the field, Pollard won't get enough playing time to make much fantasy noise. In Week 1, Pollard was on the field for just 14% of offensive snaps and that dropped to 10% in Week 2. Pollard should be rostered in all formats, but shouldn't be started anywhere at this point.

From RotoBaller

Miami Dolphins Sep 23 4:50pm ET

Miami Dolphins cornerback Byron Jones (Achilles, groin) has been ruled out for the Thursday night game against the Jaguars. Also, safety Clayton Fejedelem (pectoral) is considered doubtful for Week 3. The Dolphins secondary might be even more vulnerable in this one, which is good news for Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew II and receivers D.J. Chark (if he plays), rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. and Keelan Cole. Chris Conley would also see more work if Chark is ruled inactive. Expect cornerback Xavien Howard to try and slow down Cole, who has been Jacksonville's best receiver through two games of the season. Stay away from the Dolphins Defense in fantasy.

From RotoBaller