RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 5

Fri Oct 4 10:15am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Jackson producing big numbers


We have another busy slate in the NFL for Week 5 with only two teams on a bye. Still, with the Rams and Seahawks being the two teams that play Thursday, we are missing a few explosive players for the Sunday-Monday slate of DFS. Keeping that in mind, here are some players to target across the price scale, as well as some who might be best left alone.

QUARTERBACKS

Top-tier option: Lamar Jackson, BAL at PIT ($6,600): Jackson already has 10 touchdown passes through four games, showing he is much more than just a running quarterback. Still, his added contributions with his legs are key with him racking up 238 yards and one touchdown on the ground in the early going. The Steelers shut down the Bengals in their last game, but playing the Ravens is a completely different story. Look for Jackson to once again provide a high floor.

Cheap target: Andy Dalton, CIN vs. ARI ($5,700): Despite the Bengals losing their first two games, Dalton performed well by totaling 729 passing yards and four touchdowns. However, it’s been all downhill in two games since, including throwing for only 171 yards against the Steelers on Monday. He also threw an interception without logging a touchdown. His overall upside is limited playing behind a bad offensive line, but he can still provide value in the right situations. That could be the case against the Cardinals, who have allowed the 10th-most passing yards per game and the fourth-most points in the league.

Player to avoid: Derek Carr, OAK vs. CHI ($5,800): The Raiders have held their own at 2-2, but Carr is still looking for his first juicy stat line of the season. He hasn’t thrown for more than 259 yards in any of their four games and even threw for fewer than 200 yards twice. He also has three interceptions to go with his six touchdown passes. Facing a Bears defense that is one of the stoutest in the league likely isn’t going to help matters, so I’d much rather take a chance on Dalton at $100 cheaper.

RUNNING BACKS

Top-tier option: Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. JAC ($7,900): McCaffrey is one of the safest cash options on a week in, week out basis. He had another monster performance last week against the Texans, racking up 179 total yards and a touchdown. He posted 10 receptions in that contest, which was the second time that he has reached that threshold in a game this season. The offense will continue to run through him with Cam Newton (foot) out, likely making him worth his hefty price tag.

Cheap target: Jordan Howard, PHI vs. NYJ ($5,100): Howard wasn’t relied on heavily through the first three weeks, logging no more than 32.9 percent of the Eagles’ offensive snaps in a single game. However, he was on the field 53.2 percent of the time in Week 4, which helped him finish with 87 yards on 15 carries. He scored three total touchdowns, providing one of the more surprising fantasy performances. While his playing time is still anything but certain, he’ll at least carry touchdown upside into a matchup against a Jets’ defense that has experienced plenty of difficulties slowing down opposing offenses.

Player to avoid: Josh Jacobs, OAK vs. CHI ($6,600): One of the Bears’ strengths is their defensive front, so it’s no surprise that they have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game. That could spell doom for Jacobs, who hasn’t found his way into the end zone since Week 1 and isn’t very involved in the passing game. Since he doesn’t come at much of a discount, this is an easy one to avoid in my eyes.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Top-tier option: Michael Thomas, NO vs. TAM ($7,100): After posting back-to-back 10-catch performances the first two games, Thomas has 14 total receptions over the last two weeks. That’s still a lot of work, which has resulted in him totaling 143 receiving yards and a touchdown. Despite the Saints not looking as potent with Teddy Bridgewater under center, Thomas still provides a high floor for this matchup against a Buccaneers’ team that has allowed the second-most passing yards per game.

Cheap target: Auden Tate, CIN vs. ARI ($3,200): The Bengals are looking at a thin depth chart at wide receiver right now with A.J. Green (ankle) and John Ross (shoulder) out. Tyler Boyd steps in as their clear top option while Auden Tate also has an opportunity to grab onto the number two wide receiver role. He already has 10 catches for 138 yards over his last two games, making him a top target in tournament play at such a cheap price.

Player to avoid: Sammy Watkins, KC vs. IND ($6,800): Watkins exploded for 198 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener, but he only has 167 yards and no touchdowns across three games since. Maybe most concerning is that he received a season-low six targets against the Lions last week. With Tyreek Hill (shoulder) starting to practice again, he could be in line for a return for this matchup. Even if he doesn’t make it back, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman have stepped up enough in his place to the point where the Chiefs don’t need to force-feed Watkins. At this price, he’s too risky for me.

TIGHT ENDS

Top-tier option: Travis Kelce, KC vs. IND ($7,000): There is no tight end in the league as reliable as Kelce. He’s once again on pace for a special season, recording at least 85 receiving yards in each of his first four games. The key is his heavy workload since he has received at least eight targets in every contest. While he’ll eat up a significant portion of your budget, he’s still ideal for cash contests.

Cheap target: Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. ARI ($4,100): Eifert looked like he had the potential to be a difference-maker at tight end, but injuries have prevented him from reaching his full potential. The good news is that he’s healthy right now, making him one of the top pass-catching options that the Bengals have left. With the Cardinals having major issues holding down opposing tight ends, Eifert might not be a crazy option despite him only posting 81 receiving yards so far.

Player to avoid: Evan Engram, NYG vs. MIN ($6,300): This is more about Engram’s price than anything else. He’s having a breakout campaign and is one of the primary receiving options on the Giants, although there will be more mouths to feed with Golden Tate now back from suspension. Engram’s floor is still reasonably high, but his price tag is a tough pill to swallow. George Kittle ($5,900) also has a high floor while Zach Ertz ($5,800) could be in line for a huge performance against the Jets. The Vikings present a tough opponent for the Giants’ offense, so this might be one of the few weeks where it’s not worth paying up for Engram.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

Player Notes
Lamar Jackson May 28 11:00pm ET

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said that quarterback Lamar Jackson must make defenses pay if they stack the box against the Ravens offense in 2020. "Those corners are going to be one-on-one and those safeties are going to be one-on-one against receivers, especially on some downfield throws, and we got to make them pay for it. We absolutely have to make them pay," Harbaugh said. Jackson led the league with 36 touchdown passes in the NFL's highest-scoring offense in 2019, also setting an NFL record for rushing yards for a QB with 1,206 on his way to MVP honors. At age 22, he was the youngest QB to win the award. But on throws that traveled at least 15 yards, Jackson ranked 27th in completions (35) and 22nd in completion rate (43.8 percent). He certainly has the arm to make teams pay, and it would be good news for second-year wideouts Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin if Jackson takes the next step as a deep thrower. Even if Jackson runs less than he did a year ago, he should be either the first or second QB selected in fantasy drafts.

From RotoBaller

Chris Jones May 28 9:50pm ET

Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones hasn't had much traction with the team on a contract extension, but both sides still have until July 15 to work something out. Jones has yet to sign his franchise tender, but he's kept in touch with the Chiefs during the virtual offseason program, according to sources. The market for high-end defensive tackles like Jones is $20-plus-million per season. The 25-year-old former second-round selection in 2016 has racked up 33 sacks in his four seasons with the Chiefs, including 14.5 the last two years. He was a Pro Bowler in 2019 for the first time in his career and should be considered a top-20 defensive lineman in IDP formats.

From RotoBaller

Matt Judon May 28 8:00pm ET

Baltimore Ravens linebacker Matt Judon signed his one-year franchise tender on Thursday, according to a source. The one-year deal will carry a value of $16.27 million in 2020. The Ravens and Judon still have until July 15 to work out a long-term extension, but that's unlikely to happen considering the Ravens initially tagged Judon with the possibility of trading him. The former fifth-round pick in 2016 has 135 solo tackles, 45 tackles for loss, 82 QB hits, 28.5 sacks, eight passes defensed and seven forced fumbles in his four seasons. Judon was a Pro Bowler in 2019 when he had a career-high 9.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss and 33 QB hits. He'll be entering his age-28 season in 2020.

From RotoBaller

Joe Flacco May 28 7:00pm ET

New York Jets quarterback Joe Flacco (neck) says that he is embracing his new role as the backup quarterback to Sam Darnold. He says that his job is to help the team get better and to help a young quarterback see things as clearly as possible. Flacco started the first eight games for the Denver Broncos before suffering a season-ending neck injury. He still believes he can be a starting quarterback in the league, but understands his new role with the Jets.

From RotoBaller

DeAndre Hopkins May 28 6:50pm ET

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins expects to put up numbers in the team's pass-happy offense under head coach Kliff Kingsbury in his first season in 2020. "So myself, being a receiver, of course I see my stats going up. ... But I definitely see myself having one of my more productive seasons," Hopkins said. He also said he hasn't met up with quarterback Kyler Murray yet, but he plans on getting together with him and the other receivers "soon." Arizona has plenty of aerial weapons in an attack that will feature a lot of four-wide sets, but Nuk will be the No. 1 option for a young QB with a ton of potential. He's consistently one of the most efficient fantasy wideouts on a yearly basis and is a no-doubt top-five fantasy receiver for drafts this fall.

From RotoBaller

Eli Apple May 28 6:40pm ET

The Carolina Panthers agreed to terms on an undisclosed one-year deal with cornerback Eli Apple on Thursday. Apple agreed with the Raiders earlier in free agency, but the Raiders backed out of the deal and put Apple back on the open market. The 10th overall pick in 2016 by the Giants, Apple failed to live up to his draft billing in two-plus seasons in the Big Apple, and he was underwhelming in 15 games for the Saints last year (53 solo tackles, no interceptions, four passes defensed). But with Donte Jackson and Corn Elder currently set as the two starting corners on the outside, Apple should see plenty of playing time for a Carolina secondary with plenty of questions.

From RotoBaller

Justice Hill May 28 5:10pm ET

Baltimore Ravens running back Justice Hill played sparingly during his rookie season last year. Hill finished the year with just 66 touches after getting stuck behind Mark Ingram II and Gus Edwards. The Ravens added to their crowded running back room in the 2020 NFL draft when they used a second-round pick on J.K. Dobbins. That leaves an unclear role for Hill in 2020. Head coach John Harbaugh is still high on Hill, however, stating that he expects the sophomore runner to make a big jump. He also went on to tell reporters that there is a role for all four runners in Baltimore. Hill remains a deep dynasty stash but he may not be fantasy relevant until 2021 when Ingram is presumably out of the picture.

From RotoBaller

Nick O'Leary May 28 4:40pm ET

The Las Vegas Raiders re-signed tight end Paul Butler to an undisclosed deal on Thursday. In a corresponding move, tight end Nick O'Leary (undisclosed) was placed on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list. Butler hasn't appeared in a regular season game in two years in the NFL with the Raiders and Lions. O'Leary was signed as a free agent after catching 13 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown in 12 games (five starts) with the Jaguars and Dolphins in 2019. He was buried on the tight end depth chart to begin with, behind Darren Waller, Jason Witten and Foster Moreau. Las Vegas also has Derek Carrier and rookie Nick Bowers at the position.

From RotoBaller

Gardner Minshew II May 28 4:30pm ET

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew II has impressed new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden with his work during the virtual offseason program. Gruden likes how Minshew has taken charge and seems to have a good grasp of the offense. "He has shown a skill set where he can sit in a pocket, step up, make things happen outside the pocket. He's accurate, he's tough and obviously he's a great leader, so he's got the intangibles you want in a quarterback," Gruden said. The sixth-round pick went 6-6 as a starter in his rookie season and had the highest passer rating and fewest interceptions among rookie QBs in 2019. The 24-year-old took the league by storm last year out of nowhere and has the ability to make things happen outside the pocket and with his legs, as he rushed for 344 yards in 2019. All things considered, though, Minshew is a low-end QB2 that will likely see more inconsistency in his second season.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Rodgers May 28 4:10pm ET

Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is looking for his offense to find more explosive plays under quarterback Aaron Rodgers in 2020, the coach admitted on ESPN Wisconsin's Wilde & Tausch. The Packers ranked 19th in explosive-play rate in 2019, according to Sharp Football Stats. However, other than free-agent addition Devin Funchess in the passing game, the Packers didn't really give Rodgers any added help outside of receiver Davante Adams and running back Aaron Jones. It will be on LaFleur to scheme up more explosive situations this year, but it definitely helps to have Rodgers throwing the passes, even if he's getting older. What's certain is that the Packers will need someone besides Adams and Jones to step up for Rodgers to hold off the naysayers.

From RotoBaller

Jimmy Garoppolo May 28 3:20pm ET

San Francisco 49ers left tackle Trent Williams agreed to a restructured deal in the final year of his contract in 2020. Williams is due to make $12.5 million this year, but the 49ers agreed to give him some of that up front after he didn't make any money in 2019. The Redskins traded Williams to San Francisco during the draft in April, where he'll immediately become the blind-side protector for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo after not playing at all last season. Even though Williams will turn 32 years old in July, the seven-time Pro Bowler is an immediate upgrade for the team's offensive line and should continue to be one of the better left tackles in the NFL.

From RotoBaller

Chandler Jones May 28 2:40pm ET

Arizona Cardinals All-Pro linebacker Chandler Jones has more sacks and forced fumbles than any defender since he entered the league in 2012, and his 96 sacks through eight seasons are four more than Bruce Smith, the all-time sacks leader, at the same point in his career. Jones was one of two players in NFL history in 2019 to have 19-plus sacks and eight-plus forced fumbles in a single season. He's been really good, but he wants to work on improving against the run, his eye placement and his hand work. Jones plans to spend more practice time with the defensive line so that he can get more comfortable playing between the tackles. The two-time All-Pro and member of the league's 2010s All-Decade team can certainly get to the QB, but he'll need to improve his tackling numbers in order to justify his high price in IDP leagues.

From RotoBaller

Patrick Peterson May 28 2:20pm ET

Arizona Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson said he hasn't really had any contract talks with the team as he enters the final year of his current deal. "I feel I have a lot to prove," Peterson said. He also said he would love to stay with one team in his career and praised the organization. The 29-year-old was suspended for the first six games of 2019 and was a bit rusty upon his return. He finished with 53 tackles (46 solo), two interceptions, seven passes defensed and one forced fumble in his 10 games. The Cardinals have potential on defense with some playmakers in the middle of the field, but they'll need Peterson to return to his All-Pro form in order to make some noise in a loaded NFC West division.

From RotoBaller

Miles Sanders May 28 1:20pm ET

The Philadelphia Eagles are interested in both running backs Devonta Freeman and LeSean McCoy, who remain free agents. The Eagles offered a contract to Carlos Hyde before he signed with the Seahawks. Freeman also received an offer, but he's also weighing another offer from the Buccaneers. Philly has yet to make an offer to McCoy. The Eagles would like a veteran presence behind Miles Sanders as he heads into his second NFL season, with Boston Scott as his current backup. Both Freeman and McCoy are past their prime, but they could be effective in spurts while spelling Sanders behind a solid offensive line. Freeman would probably have more fantasy appeal as a handcuff on early downs and in goal-line situations.

From RotoBaller

Nick Kwiatkoski May 28 12:30pm ET

Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski started eight games last season for the Bears before signing a three-year, $21 million deal with the Raiders this offseason to become a full-time starter. A fourth-round pick in 2016, Kwiatkoski played a bit role his first three years, but the 27-year-old showed off his abilities when he was granted more playing time in 2019 due to injuries to the position. He had 76 tackles (eight for loss), three sacks, one forced fumble and an interception while impressing as a blitzer, against the run and in coverage. Kwiatkoski will be asked to be the leader of Las Vegas' linebacking corps in 2020, and it's something he's very comfortable with. The middle of the Raiders defense has been a problem spot for a while, so they're hoping Kwiatkoski's addition will change that.

From RotoBaller

Dak Prescott May 27 10:43pm ET

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was accurate on only 60.9 percent of his throws with three receivers running a route in 2019. However, that mark increased to 81.8 percent when he had four pass-catchers available to him and 79.3 percent with five receivers running a route.

From TheHuddle

Derek Carr May 27 10:33pm ET

Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr was 72.3 percent accurate on his throws in the fourth quarter of games in 2019 - the best such mark of any qualified quarterback last season.

From TheHuddle

Jadeveon Clowney May 27 10:10pm ET

Free-agent defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is in no rush to sign with a team, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. The Browns and Seahawks have made offers to Clowney and the Titans have also been monitoring him, but he's in no hurry to sign with anyone. The former No. 1 overall pick is by far the biggest name still on the free-agent market. His slow market also has to do with teams wanting a physical for the six-year pro after he underwent offseason surgery for a core muscle injury that limited him to 11 starts in 2019 with Seattle. Cleveland apparently has been the most aggressive for Clowney, but it remains to be seen if he'll choose them. Clowney's sack numbers aren't impressive, but he is still plenty disruptive as a pass-rusher when he's healthy.

From RotoBaller

Will Fuller May 27 9:53pm ET

Houston Texans WR Will Fuller finished with 670 receiving yards in 2019 - the second-highest total for a player who played fewer than 12 games last season - although more than half of that total (357 yards) came in two of his 11 contests.

From TheHuddle

Lamar Jackson May 27 9:53pm ET

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson finished 19-for-25 and threw for 12 touchdowns against Cover-0 coverage - an all-out blitz with man coverage and no deep safety - in 2019.

From TheHuddle