RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 6

Fri Oct 16 10:31am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Golladay is a great DFS play


A lot of big names won’t be available in DFS this week with the Saints, Seahawks, Raiders and Chargers all on a bye. Still, there are plenty of great options to consider when building your entry. Let’s discuss a couple of players at each position to target, as well as some to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Ren Roethlisberger, PIT vs. CLE ($6,100): Roethlisberger isn’t exactly racking up yards this season, averaging 254 passing yards per game. Excluding the two games he played last season, that’s his lowest per game average since 2012. However, he has 10 touchdown passes and is on pace to set a new career high with his 69.9 percent completion rate. In short, he’s off to a great start. Slowing him down will be a tall order for the Browns, considering they are tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed in the league.

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. ATL ($5,700): Yes, the Vikings don’t usually throw a lot. Still, Cousins has eight touchdown passes and has thrown for at least 249 yards in four of five games. His low salary stands out here since it puts him in the range of Philip Rivers ($5,800), C.J. Beathard ($5,800) and even Mitch Trubisky ($5,700). That almost seems ludicrous with Cousins facing a Falcons team that is tied for the most touchdown passes allowed.

Player to Avoid

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. BAL ($5,900): Wentz and the banged-up Eagles’ offense now has to face a Ravens team that has allowed the fewest points per game (15.2) in the league. They have been great at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, registering the fifth-most sacks. Add in Wentz’s propensity for throwing interceptions and it’s difficult to find a reason to roll with him given this matchup.

Running backs

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. HOU ($7,500): This might be a matchup made in heaven. The Titans are no strangers to giving Henry a heavy workload, which has left him to average 25.3 carries this season. The last time we saw him take the field against the Texans, he torched them for 211 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17 last year. While that will be difficult to duplicate, he could still be extremely productive given that the Texans have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game.

Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. ATL ($5,300): This is basically a free square with Mattison at this salary if Dalvin Cook (groin) is forced to sit out. With Cook suffering the injury early in the third quarter last week against the Seahawks, Mattison took over and finished with 112 yards on 20 carries. The Falcons’ defense has been awful in just about every facet of the game, so Mattison could be in line for a monster day if he’s left with the lead role out of the backfield.

Player to Avoid

Mark Ingram, BAL at PHI ($6,400): Make no mistake about it, the Ravens are a run-heavy team. The problem is they spread out their carries between Ingram, J.K Dobbins and Gus Edwards. That’s left Ingram to log 11 carries or fewer in all five games. Considering he doesn’t come at much of a discount, you’d likely be better off keeping him out of your entry.

Wide Receivers

Kenny Golladay, DET at JAC ($7,500): We haven’t seen much of Golladay this season after he missed the first two games with an injury. The Lions then had a bye in Week 5, meaning he’s only taken the field two times. However, he scored a touchdown in both contests and garnered a total of 15 targets. He’s the clear top option in the Lions’ passing attack and could be in line for a busy afternoon against a Jaguars team that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game.

Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. ATL ($6,400): The Vikings should be a popular team to stack with how poorly the Falcons’ defense has played this season. Jefferson is among the most appealing DFS options on the team despite registering only three catches for 23 yards against the Seahawks last week. Prior to that poor showing, he had recorded at least 100 yards in back-to-back contests. Don’t be surprised if he quickly bounces back with a productive stat line here.

Player to Avoid

Deebo Samuel, SF vs. LAR ($6,000): Jimmy Garoppolo looked awful in his return against the Dolphins last week and was eventually benched in what turned out to be a blowout loss. Samuel was the victim of his struggles, finishing with only two catches for 19 yards despite receiving eight targets. The Rams have allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game, so whether it’s Garoppolo or Beathard under center, neither might be able to lead Samuel to a valuable stat line.

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith, TEN vs. HOU ($5,400): Smith looked primed for an expanded role heading into this season and he hasn’t disappointed. He’s received 27 targets through four games, catching 18 of them for 221 yards and five touchdowns. Adam Humphries has been activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list, but Corey Davis’ status is still uncertain heading into this matchup. With that being said, even if he does return, Smith should still have a significant of enough role to be worth considering.

Jimmy Graham, CHI at CAR ($4,800): The move from the Packers to the Bears has done wonders for Graham’s fantasy value. He had five total touchdowns during his two-year stint in Green Bay, but he already has four through five games with the Bears. He should continue to be one of their top red zone targets, making him an appealing option at such a budget-friendly salary.

Player to Avoid

Zach Ertz, PHI vs. BAL ($5,300): Even with the Eagles decimated at wide receiver, Ertz can’t get anything going. He’s posted back-to-back games with fewer than 10 receiving yards and he had only one reception last week against the Steelers. It feels like he can only go up from here, but a tough matchup against the Ravens doesn’t exactly set things up for this to be his breakout week.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

Player Notes
Chris Carson Oct 22 12:20am ET

Seattle Seahawks running back Chris Carson was dealing with a knee injury heading into the bye week, but now that he's rested, he's ready to go for Week 7 against the Arizona Cardinals. He's the RB8 on the year despite playing in just five games, and he's firmly entrenched as his team's starter. He has 45 more carries than any other Seahawks running back and he's added on to that with 18 more receptions than either of the other two backs on the team. The Cardinals are allowing a healthy 19.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, and Carson has a safe floor as an RB2 with RB1 upside.

From RotoBaller

D.K. Metcalf Oct 22 12:20am ET

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver D.K. Metcalf is the WR8 on the year through six weeks, and he's looking to keep that rolling in Week 7 against the Arizona Cardinals. Metcalf is expected to match up with cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, and that's an advantage in favor of Metcalf, who has a decent speed advantage over Kirkpatrick. Metcalf has gone for at least 90 yards in every game thus far, and he's scored a touchdown in four out of five games. With the connection he has with quarterback Russell Wilson right now, he's an easy start in all formats this week as a WR1.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Lockett Oct 22 12:20am ET

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett cooled off in Weeks 4 and 5 after a hot start to the year, but he has a strong chance to bounce back in Week 7 against the Arizona Cardinals. Lockett has seen at least four targets in every game, and he's quarterback Russell Wilson's first or second read on every play. He's catching just under 80 percent of the passes thrown in his direction, and he's been a great threat to all areas of the field over the last three seasons. With players on byes, you can have a good amount of confidence slotting him into your lineups this week as a WR2 in Seattle's high-scoring offense.

From RotoBaller

Robert Woods Oct 22 12:10am ET

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Robert Woods has played well to start the year, as he's the WR10 through six weeks, but his matchup for Week 7 against the Chicago Bears is going to make things very difficult to maintain that pace. The Bears are allowing just 17.4 points per game to fantasy receivers, and Woods primarily lines up outside, where Chicago's two best corners are. The matchup is certainly a difficult one, but Woods has been the Rams most consistent wideout this year as a chain-mover. Because of his consistent target share, he remains in play as a WR2 in PPR leagues, albeit one with a lower floor this week.

From RotoBaller

Los Angeles Rams Oct 22 12:10am ET

The Los Angeles Rams Defense has been one of the better units through the first six games of the season, and they should be able to continue that in Week 7 against the Chicago Bears. Outside of their Week 1 win over the Detroit Lions, Chicago has turned the ball over at least once in every game. They've also given up 11 sacks so far this year. With a couple of good defenses on byes this week, the Rams slot in as a solid top-five option this week. They should be able to keep the score low while generating turnovers and sacks while looking to bounce back from their divisional loss to the 49ers in Week 6.

From RotoBaller

Sam Sloman Oct 22 12:10am ET

Los Angeles Rams kicker Samuel Sloman has some heat on him after the team signed kicker Kai Forbath this week, but he's still the starter for Week 7 against the Chicago Bears. This matchup has the potential to be a defensive struggle like it was in 2018, and that could give Sloman more scoring chances if the offense moves the ball consistently enough. If they're able to get the ball into field-goal range, he could put up some points, but the Bears are allowing fewer than 20 points per game to opposing teams. Although four teams are on byes this week, you should be able to find a better option than Sloman in standard-sized leagues.

From RotoBaller

Russell Wilson Oct 22 12:10am ET

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is well-rested following his bye week, and he'll be looking to continue his quest for an MVP in Week 7 against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are allowing fewer than 17 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but they haven't faced an outfit like the one Seattle is trotting out. With two top receivers along with a strong leading running back in Chris Carson in tow, Wilson has too many weapons at his disposal. In addition to that, the Cardinals lost star edge rusher Chandler Jones for the season due to injury. They won't be able to generate a consistent amount of pressure, and you'll feel extremely confident with Wilson in your lineups in all formats.

From RotoBaller

Jared Goff Oct 22 12:00am ET

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff has been a low-end QB1 for the majority of the season, but that is not the case in Week 7 against the Chicago Bears. The Bears Defense has been playing lights-out football through the first six weeks of the season, and they haven't shown signs of slowing down. They're allowing an average of just under 17 points per game to the quarterback position. Goff has solid weapons all around him, but this is just a brutal matchup from a fantasy perspective. With four quarterbacks on a bye this week, Goff could be in the streaming conversation in deeper leagues, but you should temper expectations. He should be in the middle tier of QB2s this week.

From RotoBaller

Darrell Henderson Oct 22 12:00am ET

Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson will be looking to bounce back in Week 7 against the Chicago Bears after a decent performance in Week 6, but it won't be that easy. The Bears are tied for 10th in fewest fantasy points allowed to the running back position, and Henderson remains in a crowded backfield that also includes rookie Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown. Week 6 was the first game that Henderson cleared 50 percent of the offensive snaps this season, and he just barely beat out Brown for that honor. Due to his command of the carries as of right now, you have to slot him in as an RB2 option, but temper your expectations against a strong Bears Defense.

From RotoBaller

Cooper Kupp Oct 22 12:00am ET

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp had a down game in Week 6, and it looks like those struggles could continue in Week 7 against the Chicago Bears. The Bears are allowing just 17.4 points per game to the wide receiver position, and their cornerbacks are playing lights-out. The one advantage that Kupp may have in this game is that he plays primarily out of the slot. With cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyle Fuller primarily operating on the outside, that gives Kupp the easier matchup against Buster Skrine. Against a strong Bears Defense on Monday night, Kupp should be considered more of a low-end RB2 play. He just hasn't found the connection with quarterback Jared Goff this year yet that his fantasy managers expected.

From RotoBaller

Carlos Dunlap Oct 21 10:23pm ET

Cincinnati Bengals DLs Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap are being phased out of the team's defensive game plan, and they're each frustrated with their lack of playing time, according to multiple sources. Atkins was on the field for 18 snaps in Week 6 against the Indianapolis Colts, mostly on third down, while Dunlap was in for 28 total defensive plays.

From TheHuddle

Carolina Panthers Oct 21 9:50pm ET

The Carolina Panthers Defense, though improving and showing signs of efficiency, is not a viable starting option this week. They face the Saints, who have a potent offense consisting of Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, and elite WR Michael Thomas, who could potentially return this week. In addition, the Saints have been the third-worst matchup for fantasy defenses. The Panthers' defense should be on the bench this week.

From RotoBaller

D.J. Moore Oct 21 9:40pm ET

Carolina Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore should best be viewed as a low-end WR2 for this week. Moore hasn't been the most productive receiver for Carolina this season as Robby Anderson has emerged into a top option. Nevertheless, Moore's role is still decent as he has seen at least four targets in each game. There is no reason to discount the WR's value completely as he has still gotten over 90 yards in three games as well. That's enough to give him starting value against a New Orleans defense allowing the 11th-most points to fantasy WRs.

From RotoBaller

Curtis Samuel Oct 21 9:40pm ET

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Curtis Samuel is currently dealing with a knee injury and his status for Week 7 remains unclear. Samuel also missed Week 6. The WR has offered very modest value in the passing and rushing game this season, getting no more than 51 receiving yards and 28 rushing yards in any contest. Even if he's active, there are certainly better flex options for this week.

From RotoBaller

New York Giants Oct 21 9:40pm ET

The New York Giants Defense has been better in recent weeks and has another good matchup in Week 7 with a Thursday night matchup with a banged-up Eagles offense. Philadelphia is missing starters across the offensive line and skill positions, and will face the challenge of playing on a short week. Led by cornerback James Bradberry, whose shut down play on the outside has taken away opposing number-one receivers, the Giants are a startable unit in fantasy at Philadelphia.

From RotoBaller

Ian Thomas Oct 21 9:40pm ET

Carolina Panthers tight end Ian Thomas is well off the fantasy radar heading into Week 7. The TE has only gotten three receptions for 14 yards and a score on seven targets in the past three games. His role is simply not large enough for him to merit good fantasy value.

From RotoBaller

Sam Darnold Oct 21 9:33pm ET

Updating a previous report, New York Jets QB Sam Darnold (shoulder) saw limited reps in practice, and head coach Adam Gase spoke about it after. 'Right now, we're just saying that all options are available,' Gase said Wednesday, Oct. 21. 'We'll have him on a pitch count.'

Fantasy Spin: Darnold sprained the AC joint in his right shoulder on Oct. 1, and he hasn't played or practice since, with Joe Flacco starting the previous two. Even if Darnold were able to play against a very giving Buffalo Bills pass defense, only fantasy owners in deeper leagues using two starting quarterbacks should even consider him at this point.

From TheHuddle

Evan Engram Oct 21 9:30pm ET

New York Giants tight end Evan Engram is off to a disappointing start to the season, but draws another favorable matchup in Week 7. Philadelphia allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, though it may not matter as Engram has not taken advantage of other favorable matchups. Engram has not found the end zone this season and has just one game with more than 35 yards. New York completed just 12 passes last week so it's hard to trust anyone in this pass offense. Engram is a risky starter, but does possess upside and can be started in deeper formats.

From RotoBaller

Robby Anderson Oct 21 9:30pm ET

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Robby Anderson is a WR2 this week against New Orleans. Anderson has emerged as the top target for Teddy Bridgewater this season and already has three 100-yard games. He has also seen at least four receptions and five targets in all six games. Given the increasing rapport with Bridgewater along with a large role in this offense, Anderson is a solid starter against a Saints team allowing the 11th-most points to fantasy WRs.

From RotoBaller

Teddy Bridgewater Oct 21 9:20pm ET

Carolina Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is a QB2 for this week against the Saints. From a fantasy perspective, the QB has been mostly mediocre aside from Week 5 against the Falcons and overall has six passing touchdowns to five interceptions thus far. Though the Saints allow the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, Bridgewater hasn't proven that he can be an explosive fantasy option. Only consider him in two-QB leagues for this week but there are certainly better options based on matchup.

From RotoBaller