RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 13

Fri Dec 4 9:30am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Gallman is a good play Week 13


It took us six days from when it started, but we finally made it through Week 12. With COVID-19 impacting the schedule, Week 13 now has two Monday games and a Tuesday contest. That should make for an interesting DFS slate. Let’s dive into the matchups and discuss some players to target at various price points, as well as some to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Taysom Hill, NO at ATL ($6,200): Hill’s first start while filling in for Drew Brees (ribs) came against these same Falcons just two weeks ago. He thrived in that matchup, throwing for 233 yards and rushing for 49 yards and two touchdowns. He also recorded two rushing touchdowns last week against the Broncos, although he struggled through the air with only 78 yards. Despite the potential for inconsistent contributions in the passing game, Hill’s ability to produce on the ground makes him a worthwhile option to target.

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. JAC ($6,100): Make no mistake about it, the Vikings’ offense is built around Dalvin Cook. However, that hasn’t prevented Cousins from being productive. He has five games with at least three touchdown passes this season and he has recorded at least two passing touchdowns in six of the last seven games. On top of that, he has thrown for at least 292 yards three straight contests. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league, setting up Cousins to potentially provide another valuable stat line.

Player to Avoid

Matt Ryan, ATL vs. NO ($6,100): While Hill played well the last time these two teams met, the same can’t be said for Ryan. He didn’t record a single touchdown pass, finishing with 232 passing yards and two interceptions. Ryan has had problems recording touchdowns this season, finishing with one or none in a game six times. He’s facing an uphill battle here considering the Saints have allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game.

Running Backs

Wayne Gallman, NYG at SEA ($6,600): Despite an ugly 4-7 record, the Giants enter the week leading the NFC East. The problem for their playoff prospects is that Daniel Jones left last week’s game with a hamstring injury. As a result of his absence, Gallman received a season-high 24 carries, which he turned into 94 yards and a touchdown. It seems unlikely that Jones will play this week, which should mean added work for Gallman, once again. Combine that with him scoring at least one touchdown five straight games and he’s difficult to resist at this salary.

Frank Gore, NYJ vs. LV ($6,000): Working our way down the salary scale even further brings us to Gore. He was busy last week with La’Mical Perine (ankle) on IR, rushing 18 times for 74 yards. He even caught all three of his targets for 12 total yards. Since there isn’t much depth behind him, expect Gore to once again be the team’s featured back this week. Their struggling offense hasn’t given him many opportunities to get into the end zone, but he might this week given that the Raiders are tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed.

Player to Avoid

Alvin Kamara, NO at ATL ($7,600): Initial results have indicated that Hill being the Saints’ quarterback is not good news for Kamara. Across the last two games, he has rushed for a total of 99 yards and a touchdown. The more problematic stat, though, is that he only has one reception for minus-two yards during that stretch. Hill hasn’t attempted a lot of passes, which has left just three targets for Kamara. At this lofty salary, it might be best to keep him out of your entry given the current state of the Saints’ offense.

Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson, CHI vs. DET ($7,300): Imagine if Robinson was playing with a quality quarterback? Despite the struggles of Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky, Robinson still has 71 receptions for 829 yards and five touchdowns, two of which came last week against the Packers. He already has 108 targets, putting him on pace to record at least 150 targets for the fourth time in his career. Considering his heavy workload, he could be in line for a monster performance against a Lions team that is tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed and has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game.

Denzel Mims, NYJ vs. LV ($5,300): If there is a young player to be excited about within the Jets’ offense, it’s Mims. Their second-round pick in the 2020 draft has been busy since returning from injury, receiving at least seven targets four of five games. While he’s still looking for his first touchdown, he has received three red zone targets. Also, he’s recorded at least 62-receiving yards three straight games. The Raiders have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, so don’t be surprised if Mims provides another respectable stat line, given his cheap salary.

Player to Avoid

Travis Fulgham, PHI at GB ($6,400): Things are trending the wrong direction for Fulgham. Over the last three games, he has a total of four catches for 32 yards. Last week’s performance against the Seahawks was especially concerning for a couple of reasons. First, his two targets were his fewest in a game all season. On top of that, he was on the field for only 52.1 percent of the Eagles’ offensive snaps, which was also a season-low. The team’s health situation is improving around him, so Fulgham could be in line for more quiet performances down the stretch.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller, LV at NYJ ($6,200): The Raiders’ offense was a disaster last week in what was a favorable matchup against the struggling Falcons’ defense. Derek Carr couldn’t get much going, which resulted in Waller finishing with only four receptions for 23 yards. As ugly as that game was, Waller did receive a red zone target, leaving him with 18 on the season. Given his involvement in that area and the fact that the Jets have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game, Waller could bounce back in a hurry.

T.J. Hockenson, DET at CHI ($5,300): The Lions have to be pleased with the emergence of Hockenson, who enters Week 13 with 530 yards and five touchdowns. He’s been one of their most consistent receiving options and is coming off of a season-high 89 yards last week against the Texans. This is another favorable opportunity for him to be productive given that the Bears have allowed 62 receptions, 635 yards and eight touchdowns to tight ends this season.

Player to Avoid

Jonnu Smith, TEN vs. CLE ($5,000): For the first time this season, Smith failed to receive a single target in Week 12 during a matchup with the Colts. He hasn’t finished with more than 40-receiving yards in a game since Week 3 and he has posted six games with two or fewer receptions. Given the fact that Hockenson is heavily involved in the Lions’ offense and checks in at a salary that is only $300 more, taking a chance on Smith having a productive week seems unnecessary.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Interview with a Champ

Player Notes
Tramon Williams Jan 20 9:03pm ET

Free-agent CB Tramon Williams (Ravens) worked out for the Green Bay Packers Wednesday, Jan. 20, and is expected to sign to either the practice squad or the 53-man roster.

From TheHuddle

Larry Ogunjobi Jan 20 8:03pm ET

Cleveland Browns DT Larry Ogunjobi said he'll assess his options in free agency as it's unknown if he'll return to the Browns. 'When I go into training this offseason, just kind of figure out what fits best for me and then obviously when you get into March, you figure out where the team wants you as, what they see you as and what role they want you to play here or somewhere else,' Ogunjobi said Wednesday, Jan. 20.

From TheHuddle

Ronald Jones II Jan 20 6:50pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones II (quadriceps) and wide receivers Mike Evans (knee) and Chris Godwin (quadriceps) were all limited participants during Wednesday's practice. Jones was able to practice in a limited fashion last week before ultimately suiting up against the Saints, while Evans' and Godwin's reps are being managed as precautions. Jones has a good matchup against Green Bay's front, though he and Leonard Fournette are trending towards a timeshare after head coach Bruce Arians described them as a "1-2 punch." Meanwhile, Evans will likely tango with star corner Jaire Alexander on the outside, as tough a matchup as any. Godwin is due for a rebound performance after dropping a surefire touchdown last week and could see more targets if Evans struggles and Antonio Brown (knee) is banged up.

From RotoBaller

Lamar Jackson Jan 20 6:43pm ET

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is wanted on a long-term contract, according to head coach John Harbaugh Wednesday, Jan. 20. 'Absolutely, we want Lamar to sign a long-term deal and be with us,' Harbaugh said. 'I'm totally certain that's going to happen. When it happens, that's the details.'

Fantasy Spin: Harbaugh also said they aren't going to adjust the offense to be more pass-heavy. So long as Jackson is healthy, he'll be a top fantasy QB for the foreseeable future due to his added production on the ground.

From TheHuddle

Ronald Jones II Jan 20 6:43pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones (quadriceps) said Wednesday, Jan. 20, he already feels better than last week and he's all good for the NFC Championship against the Green Bay Packers.

From TheHuddle

Antonio Brown Jan 20 6:20pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Antonio Brown (knee) was listed as a non-participant for Wednesday's practice. Brown sustained the knee injury during the divisional-round win over the Saints, with Tampa Bay officially listing him as day-to-day. The veteran wideout will look to ramp up his activity during Thursday and Friday's sessions to give him a chance at suiting up against Green Bay in the NFC title game. Fellow wideouts Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson- who both made big plays in the victory over New Orleans- would be in line to receive more targets if Brown isn't healthy enough to play.

From RotoBaller

Nickell Robey Jan 20 5:53pm ET

Philadelphia Eagles DB Nickell Robey-Coleman was removed from the Reserve/COVID-19 list Wednesday, Jan. 20.

From TheHuddle

Jordan Wilkins Jan 20 5:43pm ET

Indianapolis Colts RB Jordan Wilkins was activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 list Wednesday, Jan. 20.

From TheHuddle

Mason Crosby Jan 20 5:33pm ET

Green Bay Packers LB Krys Barnes (thumb), PK Mason Crosby (shoulder), RB AJ Dillon (quadriceps), DL Kingsley Keke (concussion), TE Marcedes Lewis (knee), LB Za'Darius Smith (thumb), WR Equanimeous St. Brown (knee, ankle), OT Ricky Wagner (knee) and RB Jamaal Williams (ankle) were limited at practice Wednesday, Jan. 20. S Will Redmond (knee) practiced in full.

From TheHuddle

Chris Godwin Jan 20 5:23pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin (hip, quadriceps) was limited at practice Wednesday, Jan. 20.

Fantasy Spin: Godwin caught four of seven targets but for just 34 yards against the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Divisional Round. The Buccaneers' passing game wasn't needed much as Tampa Bay operated from favorable field position for much of the game. Godwin, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown should all see more work against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship. Godwin is likely to see the most targets.

From TheHuddle

Ronald Jones II Jan 20 5:23pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones (finger, calf) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Jan. 20.

Fantasy Spin: Jones ran 13 times for 62 yards against the New Orleans Saints last week after being considered questionable for most of the practice week. He should be more involved this week, but the game script isn't likely to be as favorable for the Bucs as it was in the NFC Divisional Round. Jones will be a touchdown-dependent fantasy FLEX option this week.

From TheHuddle

Jason Pierre-Paul Jan 20 5:23pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers LB Jason Pierre-Paul (knee) didn't participate in practice Wednesday, Jan. 20. S Jordan Whitehead (knee) and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (quadriceps, ankle) were limited. DL Jeremiah Ledbetter (calf) and G Ali Marpet (pectoral) practiced in full.

From TheHuddle

Antonio Brown Jan 20 5:13pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Antonio Brown (knee) didn't participate in practice Wednesday, Jan. 20.

Fantasy Spin: Brown is expected to be fine in time for Sunday's NFC Championship against the Green Bay Packers. He'll represent a contrarian pivot from either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.

From TheHuddle

Mike Evans Jan 20 5:13pm ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (knee) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Jan. 20.

Fantasy Spin: Evans didn't practice much last week and was targeted just three times in the NFC Divisional Round game against the New Orleans Saints. His day was saved by a three-yard touchdown catch, but it was his only reception. He should be more involved in the NFC Championship with another week of recovery under his belt.

From TheHuddle

Stefon Diggs Jan 20 4:53pm ET

Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs (oblique) was limited during practice Wednesday, Jan. 20.

Fantasy Spin: Diggs has posted at least 100 yards in five of his last six games and is a must-start fantasy option if he is active for the game.

From TheHuddle

Quinton Jefferson Jan 20 4:53pm ET

Buffalo Bills DT Vernon Butler (quadriceps) did not participate in practice Wednesday, Jan. 20. QB Jake Fromm (non-injury) and DT Quinton Jefferson (ankle) were limited during practice. PK Tyler Bass (hand), LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) and DE Darryl X. Johnson (knee) fully participated in practice.

From TheHuddle

Stefon Diggs Jan 20 4:40pm ET

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (oblique) remains on the injury report and was a limited practice participant on Wednesday. Diggs has been battling an oblique injury late this season, but it hasn't really slowed him down at all. The NFL's leader in receptions and receiving yards in 2020, the 27-year-old has 14 catches on 20 targets for 234 yards and two touchdowns in the team's two playoff tilts against the Colts and Ravens this year. Diggs was able to haul in six of his eight targets for 46 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with the Chiefs back in Week 6 in a 26-17 loss. With quarterback Josh Allen having a breakout season under center, Diggs has been one of the most valuable fantasy wideouts this season, and that shouldn't change in the AFC Championship this Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Patrick Mahomes Jan 20 4:33pm ET

Updating a previous report, Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (concussion, toe) is now listed as limited during practice Wednesday, Jan. 20. He was initially listed as a full participant Wednesday.

Fantasy Spin: Mahomes is going through the concussion protocol but may be able to do more during practice over the next few days. He is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL when healthy and should be a starting option if he is active.

From TheHuddle

Gabriel Davis Jan 20 4:30pm ET

Buffalo Bills rookie wide receiver Gabriel Davis (ankle) and defensive tackle Vernon Butler (quadriceps) both missed practice on Wednesday. Davis injured his ankle in the Divisional Round win over the Ravens last Saturday night. As of right now, the impressive 21-year-old should be considered questionable to play against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship on Sunday, but keep an eye on his practice status through the rest of the week. He was unable to haul in any of his four targets against Baltimore's defense last week after going for four catches and 85 yards in the wild-card win over Indianapolis the week prior. He's hard to trust for consistent production behind Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley. If Davis can't play this weekend, Isaiah McKenzie could see an expanded role.

From RotoBaller