Sun Jan 3 11:41am ET
By CHARLIE WIEGERT
Week 17 is here already. Time sure flies when your having fun! If your league is still playing, this week is your championship, and the challenges for you are compounded by the players who will be sitting out. If you’re not league playing, use this advice to pick up some money in DFS this weekend!
It’s best to start with who will not be playing, stars on Kansas City and Pittsburgh. And I can’t really recommend any of their replacements, so you’ll need to look elsewhere. Also in jeopardy are Buffalo Bills players. The Bill don’t really have anything to gain or lose by playing, much like the Steelers. They will end up with the division championship and host a wild card game. If they would lose to the Dolphins and the Steelers beat the Browns, they would have the third seed instead of the second, which would change their opponent for the wild card game, and perhaps make a matchup against the Chiefs a week earlier than they would want. So there is that, and they’d probably prefer not to play KC until the AFC championship.
The teams that have something to play for, like win and you’re in the playoffs, are Los Angeles Rams, Arizona, Chicago, Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee, Cleveland and Indianapolis. Someone has to win the NFL East. Washington has the easiest road, win Sunday night against Philadelphia and they get in. Dallas and the New York Giants will play before them Sunday afternoon, the winner of that game hoping the Eagles will win and secure them a playoff spot...which would mean they get to host New Orleans, Seattle or Green Bay next weekend.
If Green Bay beats Chicago, they’ll get a bye next weekend. If they lose and the Saints win, the Saints get the bye. And if the Packers and Saints lose and the Seahawks won, Seattle gets the bye. I’d they all three lose, the Packers get the bye.
With all that in mind, the teams that have been the most generous, that have given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year are Atlanta, Detroit, Jacksonville, New York Jets and Tennessee. That makes Tom Brady and Tampa Bay going against the Falcons a top play. But you can question how much motivation they’ll have with a playoff spot already clinched as a wild card team, knowing they’ll be on the road next weekend. Again it could be much like last week when the stars sat the second half out against the Lions. In a game that means nothing as far as the playoffs are concerned, the Viking play the Lions. Kurt Cousins has been on a roll lately, and with Dalvin Cook missing this game, the Vikings and Cousins should feature a big passing game. Indianapolis needing a win to get in get a gimme with the Jaguars. Philip Rivers should expose their weak passing defense with a big game. The Patriots get the Jets and their pathetic defense, but Cam Newton has not shown he can take advantage of it, stay away. Rounding out the top five, Houston and DeShaun Watson take on a Titans team in need of a win to get in. Watson will do his best to be a spoiler and is a good play?
At the other end of the spectrum, the team giving up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks are Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Football Team, Green Bay and San Francisco. Not only do the Cardinals have to face the number one ranked passing defense a must win to get in game, they have to do it with a less than healthy QB in Tyler Murray. The hope might lie in the Rams will be missing their QB (Goff), top two RB’s ( Akers & Henderson) plus banged up RB Malcolm Brown and top WR (Kupp), so perhaps the Cardinals have a chance. Washington in a win and your in game will hope their third ranked pass defense can stop Jalen Hurt. Mitch Trubinsky and Bears have been on a roll lately also, but they haven’t had to deal with a passing defense anywhere close to as good as the Packers. Another win and your in game for the Bears against a Packer team that can sew up the number one seed and a bye with a win. Russell Wilson has not been overly explosive lately, and it will be tough going against the fifth ranked 49er pass defense.
The defenses giving up the most fantasy points to running backs are Houston, Detroit, Jacksonville, Las Vegas and Green Bay. Hello Derrick Henry, can you bring the Titans to the promised land against the worst rushing defense in the NFL? Expect a really big day from Henry, the key to the Titans making the playoffs. With Cook missing the game, a less than 100 % Alexander Mattison will be the Vikings lead back, more reason to a big passing day. The Colts Jonathan Taylor should have his way with the Jaguars. As should Melvin Gordan against the Raiders. And much like the Titans, the Bears will need RB David Montgomery to save their day and playoff hopes against the Packers fifth worst ranked rushing defense.
The teams tough to run against are New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles Rams. It will be hard going for Carolina with a third string (Mike Davis is out). Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will find little running room against the steel curtain. With Miles Sanders probably out, Boston Scott will struggle to gain rushing yards at Washington. Ito Smith will carry the backfield load for the Falcons, but don’t expect much against the stout Buccaneers defense. And Kenyon Drake gets the tough assignment for Cardinals against the Rams.
The teams giving up the most fantasy points to wide receivers are Seattle, Detroit, Tennessee, Atlanta and Dallas. The 49ers get to expose the Seahawks, but will have to do it without their top receivers, leaving the chore to Kendrick Bourne and Rickie James. The Viking receivers, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, should both top the century mark against the Lions. I expect the Titans to focus on a run game with Derrick Henry, but both AJ Brown and Corey Davis have good matchups against a bad Texan secondary. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should perform well as long as they stay in the game versus the Falcons. If the Giants are going to knock off the Cowboys, Sterling Shepard needs a big game.
Expect tough going for receivers on Arizona against the Rams, LA Chargers against the Chiefs if their main defense plays, Miami against the Bills, the Bears against the Packers and the Packers against the Bears!
The defenses giving up the most fantasy points to tight ends are New York Jets, Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago and Cincinnati. You can’t expect much from the lame Patriots offense, but Devon Asiasi is a super deep sleeper against the Jets. If Gronk is playing for the Bucs he deserves a look if not, Cameron Brate should be busy. If playing a Eric Ebron could be useful, but with Mason Rudolph at QB, it’s risky. Expect Robert Tonyan to be on the receiving end of am Aaron Rogers TD versus the Bears. Mark Andrews should have a big day for the Ravens against the Bengals.
Teams that defend the tight end the best are San Francisco (vs Seattle), Pittsburgh (vs Cleveland), New England ( vs Jets), Green Bay (vs Bears) and Miami (vs Buffalo).
Teams giving up the most fantasy points to kickers are Denver ( vs Raiders), Minnesota (vs Lions), Jets (vs Patriots), Jacksonville (vs Colts) and 49ers (vs Seahawks).
And for streaming defenses, the teams to own are the Raiders at Denver, Seattle at San Francisco, Washington at Philadelphia. New York Giants at Dallas and Baltimore at Cincinnati.
Happy New Years to all and may a fantasy championship be in your future this year!
Charlie Wiegert was the sixth person to be inducted in the Fantasy Sports Hall Of Fame in 2001. He is a founder of CDM Fantasy Sports and Fantasy Sports Trade Association. He has been playing and winning fantasy baseball leagues since 1984. If you have any questions for Charlie, email them to firstname.lastname@example.org. Follow him on Twitter @GFFantasySports.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense was shredded by Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the first quarter of their Week 12 matchup, as Hill went off for 203 yards on seven catches and two touchdowns. Cornerback Carlton Davis was left on an island with Hill, and it didn't yield pretty results. "We'll help a little bit more than we did in that ballgame," Bucs head coach Bruce Arians said. Tampa's D allowed 462 yards passing to quarterback Patrick Mahomes and three touchdowns. Hill finished with 269 yards and three touchdowns on 13 catches (only 59 yards in the second half). Tight end Travis Kelce had eight catches for 82 yards. With offensive tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz out, Bucs pass-rushers Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul must get pressure on Mahomes to have a chance at getting last year's Super Bowl MVP out of his rhythm.
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley (leg) suffered a broken fibula in the Week 16 game against the New England Patriots. Beasley sat out the regular season finale in Week 17 before catching 14 passes for 145 yards in three postseason games against the Colts, Ravens and Chiefs. "It was bad the first game I played but after that, you take a few meds and suck it up," Beasley said with a chuckle. The injury wasn't a full break, but Beasley said it was painful in the wild-card win over the Colts. The 31-year-old veteran hauled in seven of his nine targets for 88 yards in the AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. Beasley set career-highs in catches (82), targets (107), receiving yards (967) and yards per catch (11.8) while visiting the end zone four times in 15 regular season games in 2020. He'll be back as Josh Allen's most trusted third-down weapon in 2021 and will be more expensive in PPR leagues as a result of his career-best season.
Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said that the team could reach a long-term contract extension with quarterback Lamar Jackson this offseason, and the GM plans to speak to the reigning NFL MVP in the next 10 days. Jackson just finished his third season and will command at least $40 million per season on an extension. He's scheduled to make $1.77 million in 2021 on the final year of his rookie deal, which currently ranks 25th among QBs in base salary. "[He] certainly deserves a contract," DeCosta said. Jackson has won more games (30) than any other QB since he took over as the team's starter in 2018 and became the fastest QB in history to reach 30 regular season wins (37 games). Jackson is also the first in NFL history to produce 5,000 yards passing and 2,500 yards rushing in his first three seasons. The young signal-caller has been more effective with his legs than his arm and has won just one playoff game, but Jackson should be locked up long term in Baltimore and will be a top-five fantasy QB yet again in 2021.
The Philadelphia Eagles agreed to terms with former Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator Shane Steichen on Monday as their new offensive coordinator, according to a source. Steichen was key in the development of rookie quarterback Justin Herbert in 2020. New head coach Nick Sirianni and Steichen worked together with the Chargers for four years until Sirianni left for the Colts in 2018. Steichen started coaching in the NFL in Cleveland in 2013 as a quality control coach. He left for San Diego the following season and was their quality control coach for 2014-15. The 35-year-old took over the Chargers offense last season and helped nurture Herbert to a record-setting rookie season. Steichen will try and help Carson Wentz rebuild after the worst season of his career.
New Orleans Saints quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi is expected to become the new offensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers, according to sources. New head coach Brandon Staley played under Lombardi for one year at Mercyhurst University in 2005 when Lombardi was the offensive coordinator. Lombardi is the grandson of Hall of Fame coach Vince Lombardi and was the offensive coordinator for the Lions in 2014-15, but he was fired after a 1-6 start in his second year. He started his NFL career as a defensive assistant with the Falcons in 2006 before being hired by the Saints as an offensive assistant in 2007. Lombardi spent 12 seasons working with head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees in New Orleans and has also tutored QBs Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston in recent seasons. He'll be tasked with working with Justin Herbert, who became the youngest QB in history to throw 30 touchdowns in his rookie season.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was uncertain about his future after the team's 31-26 loss to the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship on Sunday. The 37-year-old is expected to win the MVP this year and is under contract through the 2023 season via the $134 million extension he signed in 2018. But the Packers also drafted Jordan Love, Rodgers' possible replacement, in the first round last year. Rodgers threw 48 touchdowns and only five interceptions in the regular season in 2020, but he also became the first QB in NFL history to lose four straight appearances in a conference championship. If Green Bay were to move on from Rodgers this offseason, they'd save just $4.76 million on the salary cap and would have $31.556 million in dead money. Rodgers may be contemplating retirement, but the Packers want him back and he'd be a high-end QB1 if he does return after going 33-for-48 for 346 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in the loss to Tampa to end the season.
The Los Angeles Chargers are hiring Denver Broncos defensive backs coach Renaldo Hill as their new defensive coordinator on Monday, according to sources. Hill worked with head coach Brandon Staley in Denver in 2019 and played in the league for a decade. Staley said last week that he will be making the defensive play calls in his first season as head coach in LA. Hill will be replacing Gus Bradley, who left to become the defensive coordinator for the Las Vegas Raiders. Hill will help oversee a defense that ranked 10th in the NFL last year and features three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Joey Bosa, rookie linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. and standout safety Derwin James, who missed all of 2020 with a knee injury.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson could sign an extension this offseason, according to general manager Eric DeCosta, who will begin talks with Jackson in 10 days.
Fantasy Spin: Jackson ended up the QB10 in traditional leagues as he missed a game due to COVID-19. With the emergence of Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and others, the position has become pretty loaded. Dak Prescott (leg) is expected back to join the flux of QB1s. A midrange QB1 is probably where Jackson is supposed to be considering the plights he faces through the air. Don't overdraft him for the rushing numbers next season because the gap has narrowed.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen completed 28 of his 48 passes for 287 yards, two touchdowns and an interception and rushed seven times for 88 yards in a 38-24 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game Sunday, Jan. 24. RB Devin Singletary was bottled up, rushing for 17 yards and six carries and gaining nine yards on two catches. WR Cole Beasley had seven grabs for 88 yards, WR Stefon Diggs had six receptions on 11 targets for 77 yards, and TE Dawson Knox caught six balls for 42 yards and a touchdown. WR Isaiah McKenzie caught a six-yard touchdown pass on his only reception, and RB T.J. Yeldon had seven touches for 56 total yards. S Jordan Poyer led the defense with eight tackles, including six solo stops.
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill put together another strong performance on Sunday versus the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Hill caught nine of his 11 targets for a team high 172 yards against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Hill wasn't able to get a touchdown in this contest, but he was dominant nonetheless. Hill has had a phenomenal season and he will look to keep that going versus a tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense in Super Bowl 55. He remains one of the best at his position and will be a top option for those participating in DFS.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes completed 29 of his 38 passes for 325 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-24 win over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game Sunday, Jan. 24. WR Tyreek Hill had nine catches for 172 yards, and TE Travis Kelce had 13 receptions for 118 yards and two touchdowns. WR Mecole Hardman had two catches for four yards and a score to go along with a 50-yard run and a lost fumble on special teams. RB Darrel Williams rushed 13 times for 52 yards and a touchdown and added one catch for nine yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had six carries for seven yards and a score. LB Frank Clark recorded a pair of sacks, and S Juan Thornhill broke up four passes.
Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire scored a touchdown in his return to action versus the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. The rookie player a minor role on Sunday with Darrel Williams being the featured back and Le'Veon Bell (knee) inactive. CEH picked up just seven yards on six carries and caught one of his two targets for zero yards, but it was good to see him return to action for the first time since injuring his ankle and hip in Week 15. Edwards-Helaire will now have two weeks to rest up before facing a tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense in the Super Bowl and he should be avoided in DFS for that contest.
Kansas City Chiefs running Darrel Williams rushed the ball 13 times for 52 yards and a touchdown versus the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Williams has performed well with Clyde Edwards-Helaire sidelined, but the rookie returned on Sunday and figures to play a bigger role in the future. Williams will also have to compete with Le'Veon Bell (knee) who was inactive on Sunday and could return for the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are a pass heavy team and will face a tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense Super Bowl 55. That will make Williams a risky option in DFS.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes helped lead his two to their second consecutive Super Bowl with a victory against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Mahomes was his usual self and completed 29 of his 38 pass attempts for 325 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed the ball five times for five yards. Mahomes is now the only player in NFL history to reach three straight championship games before the age of 26 and will now go to his second straight Super Bowl. Mahomes is putting up legendary numbers in his young career and he will square off against Tom Brady and a tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense for the chance to win his second Super Bowl ring in two weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs tight end had a monster night versus the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Kelce has been setting all kinds of records this season and he has now jumped Rob Gronkowski for the most receiving yards in a season that includes the postseason for a tight end. Kelce had 13 catches on 15 targets for 118 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Kelce remains the top option with wide receiver Tyreek Hill for the Chiefs and he should be expected to play a big role in the Super Bowl versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kelce remains the top tight end option in the league and he will be one of the safer options in DFS.
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman had himself a day versus the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Hardman had a rough start to the contest by dropping a punt that would lead to a Bills touchdown, but salvaged his day by catching two of his three targets for a 3-Yard touchdown and four total yards on the evening. He also picked up 50 yards on his lone carry. Hardman is an exciting player, but remains a shaky play for managers with the Chiefs having so many options on offense. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins (calf) also sat out this contest and his return would factor into Hardman's snap count. Hardman is always capable of breaking a big play and he will look to do that versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55.
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce went over 100 receiving yards in the third quarter of the AFC Championship Game against the Buffalo Bills. He became the first tight end in NFL history with five postseason games of 100 or more receiving yards.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense played another strong game in a 31-26 win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game. Tampa Bay sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, forcing one interception and a fumble in the huge win. The Buccaneers' pass rush was fueled by two players- linebacker Shaquil Barrett, who had three sacks and four quarterback hits, and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who had two sacks. Rising star Devin White led the team in tackles with 15, as he was a thorn in the side of the Packers' offensive plans all game long. Tampa Bay's defense will have its hands full in the Super Bowl against either Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, though this unit is playing some excellent football at the right time.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski caught just one pass for 29 yards in his team's 31-26 win over the Packers. Gronkowski went catch-less through three quarters before picking up 29 yards on a screen pass in the fourth quarter, setting up Tampa Bay for a field goal. The former Patriot has nearly been an every-down player for the Buccaneers in the playoffs but has done little as a pass-catcher, as he's taken a backseat to fellow tight end Cameron Brate. No stranger to the big game, Gronkowski will get a chance to redeem himself in the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cameron Brate played a key role in another playoff victory for his team. Brate produced just 19 total yards, though he caught a third-quarter touchdown that helped extend the Buccaneers' lead to 28-10. The Harvard product exceeded 50 yards just once in the regular season but has accomplished the feat twice in Tampa Bay's three playoff wins. Tom Brady clearly has a trust for Brate as a pass-catcher, something that appears likely to continue as Tampa Bay prepares to be the first team to host and play in the Super Bowl.