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Offseason | NBA Week 26

Diminished prize: NBA draft lottery holds modest value

Fri May 10 2:41pm ET
Field Level Media

Four teams enter the 2024 NBA Draft lottery on Sunday with better than 13 percent odds of landing the No. 1 pick, but the prize holds relatively modest value one year after Victor Wembanyama arrived from France.

The Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards share the top odds -- 14 percent -- ahead of the Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers, who picked second and third behind the San Antonio Spurs last June. The Spurs scored the No. 1 pick, selected Wembanyama, and hold the fifth-best chance (10.5 percent) at getting the first overall pick in the 2024 draft via the lottery.

The 2024 NBA Draft begins June 26, with the second round held the next day.

Since the lottery rules changed in 2019, each of the four teams to win the lottery and No. 1 pick entered with 14 percent odds to land the pick. The first year under the competitive balance rules in 2020, the Timberwolves won the lottery and selected Georgia's Anthony Edwards.


While any team in the NBA would've welcomed a chance to bring Edwards or Wembanyama on board, there's a bit of a red-headed stepchild narrative around the 2024 draft class.

The order of draft selections for lottery teams -- the 14 teams not in the NBA playoffs -- will be assigned mid-afternoon (3 p.m. ET, ABC) on Mother's Day. Final positioning in the lottery was determined after the regular season based on record with the NBA settling tiebreaks involving teams with identical regular-season records.

Detroit drafted first overall in 2021 (Cade Cunningham) and fifth in 2022 (Jaden Ivey) and 2023 (Ausar Thompson). The Pistons find themselves back in this position following a league-worst 14-68 finish to the regular season.

Equal chances for the No. 1 pick belong to the Wizards. Washington last won the lottery in 2010, selecting Kentucky point guard John Wall.

The Hornets picked first once -- in 1991, when they selected UNLV's Larry Johnson -- but have drafted outside of the lottery only once in the past 23 years. Charlotte selected Brandon Miller No. 2 overall in 2023 and LaMelo Ball with the third pick in 2020.

Greg Oden was the Trail Blazers' pick at No. 1 in 2007 and Portland hasn't been back in the top spot since. Point guard Scoot Henderson went at No. 3 to Portland in 2023. Kentucky shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe (seventh overall, 2022) and Lehigh guard CJ McCollum (10th overall, 2013) were the only other top-10 draft picks for the franchise since Oden.

Sporting the best record in the West in the regular season and playing in the conference semifinals, trade-happy Oklahoma City maintains two chances in the lottery as owed compensation in previous swaps with the Utah Jazz (6 percent chance at No. 1 pick) and Houston Rockets (1.5 percent odds at No. 1 pick). Because of pick protections placed on the trade, the Thunder would receive Utah's selection only if it's Nos. 11-14.

Likewise, the pick from Houston is protected -- meaning the Rockets can push the trade to next year -- if it's in the top four.

The Spurs could score a second lottery pick as part of the return due from the Toronto Raptors for acquiring Jakob Poeltl.

Player Notes
Anthony Edwards Fri May 24 11:40pm

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards struggled in Friday's 109-108 loss to the Dallas Mavericks. While he scored 21 points, he had a tough time finding the bottom of the net, going 5-for-17 from the field and 2-for-7 from behind the arc. Fortunately, Edwards added seven assists, five rebounds, and one block, so his performance wasn't a total flop for DFS managers. The 22-year-old averaged 27.7 points during the previous series versus the Denver Nuggets. However, he has averaged just 20.0 points in the Western Conference Finals. With that in mind, the Timberwolves have played better on the road throughout the postseason, so Edwards could turn things around in Game 3 on Sunday night.

Karl-Anthony Towns Fri May 24 11:40pm

Minnesota Timberwolves forward/center Karl-Anthony Towns finished with 15 points in Friday's loss to the Mavericks. He added seven rebounds and two steals. KAT struggled shooting in Game 1 on Tuesday night. However, things weren't much better in Game 2, with the 28-year-old going 4-for-16 from the field and 1-for-5 from deep. Towns shot the ball more efficiently in Minnesota's previous two series versus the Suns and Nuggets. Fortunately, the Timberwolves have played better on the road during the playoffs, meaning Towns has an excellent chance of bouncing back.

Kyrie Irving Fri May 24 11:30pm

Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving shined in Friday's win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. The 32-year-old scored 20 points, finishing second on the team behind Luka Doncic, who had a game-high 32. He added six assists, four rebounds, and one steal while draining four of his seven tries from deep. Irving averaged only 15.2 points during the Mavs' previous series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, he's averaged 25.0 points in the first two games of the Western Conference Finals. With that said, DFS managers should keep him in mind for Game 3 on Sunday night, with Dallas looking to go up three games in the series.

Luka Doncic Fri May 24 11:20pm

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (knee, ankle) had a triple-double in Friday's win over the Timberwolves. The multi-time All-Star had a game-high 32 points, going 10-for-23 from the field and 5-for-11 from deep, adding 13 assists and 10 rebounds. While Doncic struggled somewhat shooting the ball, just like in Game 1, he played well enough to sink a three in the fourth quarter to secure the win. It's obvious he's been impacted by his various ailments. However, Doncic is a top DFS producer and should remain on the radar for Game 3 on Sunday night, with the Mavs looking to take a three-game lead in the series.

Luke Kornet Fri May 24 7:20pm

Boston Celtics center Luke Kornet (wrist) is unlikely to suit up for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals versus the Pacers on Saturday night. Kristaps Porzingis (calf) has been sidelined for nearly a month because of a right Soleus strain, so Kornet has been getting more work. However, he injured his wrist in Game 2 on Saturday night and didn't return. With that said, there's a chance Xavier Tillman Sr. and Oshae Brissett could get on the floor more than they have during the playoffs. But there's also the possibility of the Celtics going small, resulting in more minutes for Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser. Of course, Al Horford will remain starting in the middle.

Tyrese Haliburton Fri May 24 7:10pm

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) is questionable for Saturday's Eastern Conference Finals showdown with Boston. He flourished in the series opener on Tuesday, amassing a 25-point, 10-assist double-double with three steals and one block. Unfortunately, Haliburton tweaked his hamstring in Game 2 on Thursday night and didn't return to the contest. Of course, the situation isn't good news, especially since the 24-year-old missed time in January because of the same ailment. But with the Pacers down two games in the series, Haliburton will likely do all he can to get out there. However, there's a good chance he won't be available, opening the door for T.J. McConnell to enter the starting lineup.

Donovan Mitchell Fri May 24 7:00pm

According to Cleveland Cavaliers president of basketball operations Koby Altman, guard Donovan Mitchell is "happy" to be on the team. "My exit interview with him was really good in that he was talking about the future and how excited he was about the team and organization," said Altman while speaking to the media on Friday. "From his own words, he says he's happy and likes it here." The 29-year-old has flourished in Cleveland, and he finished his most recent season by averaging 26.6 points while amassing career-highs in assists (6.1), rebounds (5.1), and steals (1.8). He's searching for a lucrative extension, which the team will likely offer this summer. From a fantasy standpoint, Mitchell is as productive as it gets. However, he's missed 41 games in the last two seasons, negatively impacting his fantasy value for the 2024-25 campaign.

Julius Randle Fri May 24 11:40am

According to Fred Katz of the New York Times, the Knicks aren't looking to trade forward Julius Randle. However, the team could move him, especially if it means landing a superstar to pair with Jalen Brunson (hand). Randle has been productive in his last five seasons with the Knicks, and he finished 2023-24 by averaging 24.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. Unfortunately, the 29-year-old was limited to 46 games and underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in April. Randle is eligible to sign an extension on August 3. But if New York has a chance to upgrade the roster significantly, his tenure in the Big Apple might be over before the 2024-25 campaign begins. With that said, outside of this year, Randle has stayed relatively healthy, making him an ideal fantasy asset. On the other hand, he has some areas to address, with his 33.3% career three-point shooting being one of them.

Mike Conley Thu May 23 11:10pm

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Mike Conley (calf) is questionable for Friday's matchup against the Mavs. He has a right Soleus strain, which kept him off the floor for Game 5 in the previous series with Denver. However, the veteran was available for the final two games of the Western Conference semifinals. He was also on the floor for Monday's loss to Dallas. But Conley had just six points, shooting 2-for-7 from the field and 1-for-6 from deep. While the 36-year-old will likely be active for Game 2, he's a risky DFS option, considering he's not fully healthy.

Tyrese Haliburton Thu May 23 11:00pm

According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) exited Thursday's loss to the Celtics due to left hamstring soreness. It was initially reported Haliburton was dealing with a left leg issue. However, the most recent update isn't good, considering the All-Star missed 10 games in January because of the same injury. With that said, he will likely appear on the injury report heading into Game 3 on Saturday. On the other hand, there's a good chance Haliburton won't be out there, meaning T.J. McConnell would handle things at the one.

Tyrese Haliburton Thu May 23 10:30pm

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (leg) won't return to Thursday's postseason meeting with the Celtics. There's not much information surrounding the nature of the ailment, with ESPN's Lisa Salters reporting the All-Star is battling leg soreness. Haliburton had a 25-point, 10-assist double-double with three steals in Game 1. But he'd finish Game 2 with 10 points and eight assists in 28 minutes of action. Of course, the biggest concern is his availability for Game 3. But if Haliburton can't suit up for that one, T.J. McConnell will see a surge in DFS potential.

Luke Kornet Thu May 23 9:20pm

Boston Celtics center Luke Kornet (wrist) is questionable to return to Thursday's playoff meeting against Indiana. Kornet, who has been getting more action without Kristaps Porzingis (calf) in the lineup, lasted only five minutes before exiting with a sprained left wrist. If he doesn't return, he'll finish with two rebounds. While Oshae Brissett could get some work, there's a chance Jayson Tatum could spend time in the middle, although Al Horford should remain the top option at the five.

Luka Doncic Thu May 23 9:20pm

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (knee, ankle) is probable for Friday's postseason encounter against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The multi-time All-Star has been dealing with various ailments for weeks. However, he'll be on the floor for Game 2, barring a setback. But just because Doncic is available doesn't mean the injuries won't continue to impact his play on the floor, especially since he shot 12-for-26 from the field and 3-for-10 from deep in the Game 1 win on Wednesday night.

Kristaps Porzingis Thu May 23 9:10pm

According to ESPN's Lisa Salters, reporting during the second quarter of Thursday's postseason matchup between the Celtics and Pacers, center Kristaps Porzingis (calf) hasn't participated in practice. However, he's still been around the team. The veteran has been sidelined for nearly a month because of a right Soleus strain. While a report indicated Porzingis could be back for Game 4 on Monday night, head coach Joe Mazzulla stressed that he remains without a timetable for a return. With that said, it's not uncommon for Mazzulla to withhold information on an injured player, although the latest update isn't good news for the C's. But until he's back on the floor, Al Horford will get most of the minutes in the middle and remain a relatively reliable DFS option.

Naz Reid Thu May 23 10:40am

Minnesota Timberwolves forward/center Naz Reid had a busy night off the bench in Wednesday's Game 1 against Dallas, recording 15 points, five rebounds, two assists, one steal, and one block in a 108-105 loss. Reid demonstrated perfectly why he was voted the Sixth Man of the Year, making an impact in all areas across 24 minutes of action. He finished with 5-for-9 shooting, going 3-for-6 with the three-ball. Reid's numbers have dropped in the playoffs, along with his playing time, but that's now three efforts in four games with 10-plus points from him. Minnesota will need more of the same in the battle against Dallas' well-equipped frontcourt.

Karl-Anthony Towns Thu May 23 10:30am

Minnesota Timberwolves forward/center Karl-Anthony Towns took a team-high 20 shots but made only six efforts in Wednesday's Game 1 loss to the Mavericks, posting 16 points. Towns' inefficiency from the field ended up being costly for the team, as the Timberwolves suffered a narrow three-point defeat. Half of his misses came from downtown with nine attempts, and Towns was also limited to seven rebounds while registering two assists and one steal. With Anthony Edwards also struggling to score, the two Timberwolves stars combined for 12-for-36 shooting. Yet, the team was still close to walking away with the victory. We should see a much-improved effort from the star duo in Friday's Game 2.

Anthony Edwards Thu May 23 10:20am

Minnesota Timberwolves guard/forward Anthony Edwards struggled to get points on the board but went close to his first career triple-double in Wednesday's Game 1 loss to the Mavericks. Edwards shot a very good 5-for-12 from downtown, but he finished 6-for-16 overall from the field and managed only 19 points. However, he led his team with 11 rebounds and eight assists, adding a pair of steals to his stat line. Edwards has had a huge postseason campaign, but after playing 44 minutes in Game 7 against Denver on Sunday, he logged 41 minutes on Wednesday and looked gassed in the closing stages. The games are coming thick and fast, with Game 2 of the series scheduled for Friday, and the Timberwolves will be in big trouble if Edwards can't get his energy levels back.

Jaden McDaniels Thu May 23 10:10am

Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels opened Wednesday's Game 1 against Dallas with 4-for-4 three-point shooting and was the team's top scorer in the end in a 108-105 loss with 24 points. The 23-year-old enjoyed his third consecutive 20-point effort with 9-for-15 shooting, hitting six of his nine attempts from behind the arc. McDaniels' night also included four rebounds, three assists, and one steal. Minnesota's young forward has built himself a reputation as a very good defensive player, and he was selected to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team at the start of the week. But McDaniels has also been on a roll offensively lately thanks to some very sharp three-point shooting, going 12-for-18 from deep across his last three appearances.

Kyrie Irving Thu May 23 10:00am

Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving had one of his best offensive games of the 2024 postseason on Wednesday with a 30-point effort in a 108-105 win over Minnesota. Irving did a great job in getting to the rim early in the game and had 24 points in the first half alone. He couldn't get any threes to drop with three attempts but shot a good 12-for-23 overall from the field and posted five rebounds with four assists and one block. In the previous series against the Thunder, Irving averaged only 15.7 points, so he looked almost like a different player in the Western Conference Finals opener, and his scoring is a major plus for the Mavericks.

PJ Washington Thu May 23 10:00am

Dallas Mavericks forward/center P.J. Washington recorded 13 points, seven rebounds, and two blocks as the team opened the Western Conference Finals against Minnesota with a 108-105 win on Wednesday. It was a rough shooting night for the 28-year-old, as Washington finished 4-for-10 from the field and 2-for-8 with his three-point attempts, but he made a big shot late in the game to set the Mavericks on their way. Washington's second triple gave Dallas a 104-102 lead with 1:56 remaining in the fourth quarter. Despite the poor shooting, Washington led all Mavericks starters with a plus-12 rating. The former Hornet has looked great in these playoffs, and the Mavericks tend to have a tough time when he's off the court.