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NBA Play-In: Warriors-Kings Preview, Props & Prediction

Tue Apr 16 3:09pm ET
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The Golden State Warriors sent the Sacramento Kings home last season by rallying to win a seven-game first-round playoff series with the finale set in California's capital city.

The Warriors once again will try to make it a disappointing ending for host Sacramento on Tuesday night when they face the Kings in a loser-goes-home Western Conference play-in contest.

TRENDING

The Warriors are consensus 2.5-point favorites. That includes at BetMGM, where they have been backed by 75 percent of the spread-line money while their -140 moneyline has drawn 80 percent of the money wagered.


The line has also shifted to 2.5 points at BetRivers, where Golden State opened as a 3.0-point favorite. The Warriors have also received lopsided support at the book, drawing 78 percent of the spread-line money while their -137 moneyline has been backed by a whopping 95 percent of the action.

Prediction: This feels like the end of the road for the Warriors' trio of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Where the road officially ends remains to be seen, but it won't be Tuesday night in Sacramento. --Warriors 115, Kings 108

PROP PICK

Domantas Sabonis Over 12.5 rebounds (-152 at BetRivers): This has been the most popular player prop at the book, drawing 4.2 percent of the total player prop money wagered on this game. Sabonis averaged 13.7 rebounds per game during the regular season and 14.1 in eight April games.

He had only eight in each of the past two matchups against the Warriors, but did pull down 18 in an October game at Golden State and 11 in a home loss to the Warriors five days later.

THE NEWS

Green said he expects to be roundly booed again when he steps on the court in Sacramento. His playoff antics from last season have not been forgotten as part of an electric series in which the Kings won the first two games before Golden State recovered to win four of the final five.

Curry's 50-point performance in Game 7 allowed the Warriors to advance, Green's stomping on the midsection of the Kings' Domantas Sabonis in the fourth quarter of Game 2 lives on as the series-defining visual.

"It kind of has brewed into (a rivalry)," said Green, "but for us, it's another game we have to go win. We've got to get it done."

Sabonis is having a monster season with 77 double-doubles, while teaming up with star point guard De'Aaron Fox to get the Kings in the playoffs for the second straight season after 16 consecutive fruitless campaigns.

The history of losing made last season's postseason ouster feel even harsher for Sacramento.

"It's exciting," Kings guard Davion Mitchell said of facing Golden State. "We get to get a little payback for last year. We know they're going to come here with energy. It's a home game. We know it's going to be loud. It's going to be physical. I think we are ready for it."

Sacramento floundered down the stretch with five setbacks in six games prior to hammering the visiting Portland Trail Blazers 121-82 in Sunday's regular-season finale.

The Kings were eyeing a possible top-six playoff spot when they sat 13 games above .500 with just 11 games left. But a 4-7 finish landed Sacramento in the high-stakes 9 vs. 10 game.

"We welcome anybody that's in front of us," Sacramento coach Mike Brown said. "We are just excited about an opportunity to play. And again, situations like this, we as a group right now, haven't been through. And so to go play one game right now, that's how I look at it and swing for the fences. Try to get a win."

KEY STAT

The Warriors had a hot finish with 10 wins in 12 games, including Sunday's 123-116 home win over the Utah Jazz. Golden State didn't permanently get over .500 until Feb. 15. After being five games under .500 on Jan. 27, the Warriors went 27-12 the rest of the regular season.

SERIES HISTORY

The teams split four regular-season meetings this season -- going 1-1 in both Sacramento and San Francisco.

THEY SAID IT

"We have a really good connection on this team, good chemistry, guys pulling for each other. So I've got a good feeling about what's ahead," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "I think we still have a chance to do something special.

"Now, obviously, it's (the) NCAA Tournament. We've got to get out of the first weekend here, win the first two and get to the first round, but we have a shot, so we're excited about that."

UP NEXT

The winner of the game between the No. 10 seed Warriors (46-36) and No. 9 Kings (46-36) will advance to play either the No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers or No. 7 New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. The winner on Friday advances to play the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs.

Green is confident his squad will still be playing next week.

"We just got to go win," Green said. "When this team's back is against the wall, I like how this group shows up."

Player Notes
Jamal Murray Mon Apr 29 9:20pm

According to TNT's Allie LaForce, Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (calf) will play on Monday night versus the Lakers. The 27-year-old was on the injury report because of a left calf strain. While the team is certainly glad to have him out there, he may not be fully healthy. However, Murray has an excellent chance to turn things around after his rough showing in Game 4, making him a viable DFS option for Game 5.

Kristaps Porzingis Mon Apr 29 9:20pm

According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, Boston Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis (calf) will undergo an MRI on Tuesday. The veteran suffered what the team called right calf tightness before the end of the first half, so he'd finish the night with seven points in 14 minutes. Fortunately, medical personnel don't suspect an Achilles injury. However, the ailment could be enough to keep Porzingis off the floor for Game 5, although it's still too early to speculate. But if he can't go, Al Horford should slide into the starting lineup, with Luke Kornet getting minutes behind him from off the bench.

Kristaps Porzingis Mon Apr 29 9:10pm

Boston Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis (calf) is doubtful to return to Monday's playoff matchup with the Heat. Porzingis was having another rough shooting performance, going 1-for-5 from the field. But even worse, he injured his right calf before the end of the first half. The C's have Game 4 under control, so there's no urgency to bring Porzingis back to the floor. However, the real question now is if he'll be healthy enough to suit up for Game 5. If he can't, Al Horford will likely take over at the five, with Luke Kornet coming in for relief.

Patrick Beverley Mon Apr 29 7:50pm

Milwaukee Bucks point guard Patrick Beverley (oblique) is considered probable for Tuesday's Game 5 against Indiana. He's expected to play through a right oblique muscle strain. The veteran entered the starting unit late in the regular season and has played well in the playoffs. Beverley averages 7.5 points in the series with 3.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.0 steals on 50 percent shooting from deep. However, the team needs even more from him offensively, with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Damian Lillard (Achilles) likely to remain unavailable on Tuesday.

Khris Middleton Mon Apr 29 7:40pm

Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (ankle) is listed as probable for Tuesday's Game 5 against Indiana. He injured his right ankle early in the series but has remained in the lineup and is expected to lead the charge again on Tuesday. Middleton is Milwaukee's top scoring option, with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Damian Lillard (Achilles) sidelined, and he's had 51 efforts from the field across the last two games. Antetokounmpo and Lillard aren't expected to return on Tuesday, so another big effort is expected from Middleton, who's averaged 26.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in the series.

Damian Lillard Mon Apr 29 7:40pm

Milwaukee Bucks point guard Damian Lillard (Achilles) is considered doubtful for Tuesday's elimination game against the Pacers. He's set to miss a second consecutive contest after aggravating an Achilles injury in Game 3 of the first-round series. Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is also doubtful, meaning the Bucks are in huge trouble. Malik Beasley came into the starting unit for Lillard in Game 4 and produced a good 20-point performance with 4-for-7 shooting from deep, but the team was clearly beaten 126-113. Khris Middleton (ankle) and Brook Lopez also went for 20-plus points with Milwaukee's top guns sidelined.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Mon Apr 29 7:30pm

Milwaukee Bucks forward/center Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is doubtful for Tuesday's Game 5 against Indiana. The Greek superstar has yet to feature this postseason due to a calf injury, and the doubtful tag makes it unlikely that he will be able to play on Tuesday, even with the team desperately needing him. Sitting in a 3-1 deficit in the series, the Bucks face elimination on Tuesday, but head coach Doc Rivers has indicated that Antetokounmpo won't play until he's 100 percent. Having also lost Damian Lillard (Achilles) to injury, the Bucks received a big 27-point effort from Brook Lopez in Game 4. Khris Middleton (ankle) also carries a heavy burden offensively.

Tyrese Haliburton Mon Apr 29 7:20pm

Indiana Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton (back) is on the injury report as questionable ahead of Game 5 against Milwaukee on Tuesday. Indiana's breakout star is dealing with lower back spasms and also picked up a late questionable tag ahead of Game 4. Haliburton ended up having his highest-scoring game of the series with 24 points on Sunday, so it appears as though the issue isn't very serious. T.J. McConnell would receive a larger workload if Haliburton needs to come out of the lineup. He's a nifty playmaker who averaged 10.8 points, 6.5 assists, and 1.8 steals in a starting role during the regular season.

Bojan Bogdanovic Mon Apr 29 6:40pm

New York Knicks guard/forward Bojan Bogdanovic (ankle) won't be available for Tuesday's Game 5 against the 76ers. The veteran sniper was hurt in Sunday's Game 4 and has been ruled out with a left foot contusion. Bogdanovic averaged 16.7 minutes in the first three games of the series before lasting only 1:11 on Sunday. The second unit was led by Precious Achiuwa and Miles McBride in the contest, and the two should have a big part to play again on Tuesday after helping the Knicks grab a 3-1 series lead with effective performances.

Mitchell Robinson Mon Apr 29 6:40pm

New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (ankle) is questionable for Tuesday's Game 5 against Philadelphia. He could be out for a second consecutive contest after skipping Sunday's Game 4 due to an ankle sprain. Robinson warmed up for the game with the intention of playing, but he was ruled out ahead of tip-off after being initially being questionable. Precious Achiuwa saw extra action without Robinson and had a big role defensively in the game with four blocks. After playing him the entire fourth quarter in Game 4, Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau could have an important role penciled in for Achiuwa again on Tuesday, even if Robinson is available.

Jalen Brunson Mon Apr 29 6:30pm

New York Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson (knee) is probable for Tuesday's Game 5 against Philadelphia. He's on the injury report with a right knee contusion. Brunson battled through knee pain in Game 4, but it didn't appear to affect his performance, as the Knicks star posted a new franchise record for most points in a playoff game with 47. After initially struggling in the series, Brunson has recorded two big double-doubles, and we should see another spectacle from him as the series returns to Madison Square Garden.

Joel Embiid Mon Apr 29 6:20pm

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (knee) has once again been listed as questionable on the injury report, with the team set to continue its first-round battle against the Knicks on Tuesday. Embiid, who continues to recover from a left knee injury, has so far played in all four games in the matchup, surpassing the 40-minute mark in back-to-back contests. He's posted 35.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.0 blocks, and 1.3 steals in the playoffs. The 2022-23 regular season MVP has previously struggled in elimination games in his career, notching only 22.0 points per game with 38.8 percent shooting.

Delon Wright Mon Apr 29 6:10pm

Miami Heat point guard Delon Wright (personal) will be available on Monday against Boston. He's returning after missing Game 3 due to the birth of his daughter. Wright has logged 20-plus minutes in both of his two playoff appearances so far and should receive the same kind of workload in Game 4. The 32-year-old is more known for his defensive ability, but Wright also stood out offensively in the series opener with 17 points. He's averaged 11.0 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.0 steals this postseason.

Kevin Durant Mon Apr 29 10:20am

Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant scored a very efficient 33 points in Sunday's 122-116 loss to the Timberwolves, finishing with 12-for-17 shooting from the field. Durant averages the third-most points among active players in elimination games, and he produced another high-level performance, but Phoenix needed even more from him as Minnesota completed the first-round sweep on Sunday. Across 46 minutes of action, Durant also came up big defensively by swatting away four shots, and his tally included nine rebounds and five assists. This is the second sweep in four years Durant has suffered since leaving Golden State, and he can't be happy about how things have worked out in Phoenix with the team's Big Three.

Devin Booker Mon Apr 29 10:10am

Phoenix Suns guard/forward Devin Booker set a new playoff career high with 49 points in Sunday's Game 4 loss to Minnesota. The four-time All-Star shot 13-for-21 from the field with a 3-for-5 record from deep and hit 20 of his 21 free throws, but the Suns couldn't stay alive in the series despite Booker's monster effort. Booker, who also posted five rebounds, six assists, two steals, and one block on Sunday, is now 0-4 for his career in elimination games. He had previously averaged only 14.0 points in elimination games, so Booker took a major step forward from a personal perspective, but the Suns as a team seem stuck in the same place. Since reaching the Finals in 2021, Phoenix has won only two playoff series, going 10-13 in the postseason.

Karl-Anthony Towns Mon Apr 29 10:00am

Minnesota Timberwolves forward/center Karl-Anthony Towns played a big part in Sunday's Game 4 victory over Phoenix with 28 points and 10 rebounds. He was a major threat all over the place, nailing four of his six attempts from deep and shooting 11-for-17 overall. He also handed out three assists. Towns finished the series with back-to-back double-doubles, averaging 19.3 points and 9.5 rebounds overall. He hit a very impressive 9-for-17 from outside in four games and will be a massive headache for the next opponent if he keeps this up. The Timberwolves are the first team to qualify for the second round and will meet either Denver or the Lakers next.

Anthony Edwards Mon Apr 29 9:50am

Minnesota Timberwolves guard/forward Anthony Edwards went for a team-high 40 points as his squad completed a first-round sweep against Phoenix on Sunday with a 122-116 win. Edwards exploded after being limited to nine points in the first half, shooting 13-for-23 from the field and hitting 7-for-13 from downtown. Minnesota's young superstar also collected nine rebounds, six assists, one steal, and two blocks, breaking a tie with Kevin Garnett for most 30-point playoff games in franchise history. In fact, Edwards has now scored 30-plus points in over half of his 15 postseason appearances. He finished the series against the Suns with a 31-point scoring average.

Jarred Vanderbilt Mon Apr 29 9:40am

Los Angeles Lakers forward Jarred Vanderbilt (foot) has been upgraded to questionable ahead of Monday's Game 5 against Denver. He's been out since Feb. 1 with a mid-foot sprain. After missing the start of the season, Vanderbilt featured in only 29 regular-season contests, averaging 5.2 points and 4.8 rebounds across 20.0 minutes. He'll be a good addition to the rotation if he plays on Monday, although it's unlikely Vanderbilt will be ready to carry a full workload. The Lakers didn't use Christian Wood at all in Game 4 after he was cleared to return to the lineup after a lengthy absence.

Delon Wright Mon Apr 29 9:40am

Miami Heat point guard Delon Wright (personal) appears ready to return to the lineup on Monday versus Boston, as the team has listed him as probable for the contest. Wright missed Game 3 of the series for personal reasons. He started the playoffs with a big 17-point performance but settled for only five points in Game 2. Terry Rozier's (neck) absence has given Wright an opportunity to average 23.0 minutes per game in the postseason, and he should play a significant part in the rotation again on Monday. However, his inconsistency makes Wright a risky option for DFS managers.

Terry Rozier Mon Apr 29 9:30am

Miami Heat point guard Terry Rozier (neck) will remain absent for Game 4 against Boston on Monday. The former Celtic is struggling to overcome neck spasms, which have already sidelined him for nine games. Tyler Herro has taken over a lot of the playmaking duties without Rozier and will continue to lead the charge on Monday. The Heat backcourt is expected to get some help as well, with Delon Wright (personal) on the cusp of returning to the lineup.