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Offseason | NBA Week 26

Western Conference betting primer: SGA, OKC look AOK

Sat Apr 20 2:50am ET
Field Level Media

If someone says they know what will happen in the wild West during the NBA playoffs, they're lying. The stacked Western Conference playoff field can't help but offer value because the honest odds provide for a real handicapping challenge.

We'll try to isolate the best value plays as we present the odds movements, key props worth your time and a look at the odds to win the West.

(Odds per DraftKings unless otherwise noted.)

No. 1 Thunder (-800) vs. No. 8 Pelicans (+550)


Series bet: While Oklahoma City is seen as a vulnerable No. 1 seed, New Orleans lost its star while emerging out of the play-in tournament.

Zion Williamson's injury -- no matter how great the Pelicans looked in turning back the Sacramento Kings -- means New Orleans will need four pristine games to eliminate the Thunder.

There might not be a more eager team to begin the playoffs, and the Thunder will push to end this series as quickly as they can. Go with the Thunder in fewer than 5.5 games, -130.

Futures bet: If you're looking only at the strengths and weaknesses, statistics and trends for the Western contenders, you might have the Thunder and the defending champion Denver Nuggets very close on your Western champs list. Both teams won 57 games, and the Thunder have a leader, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose game seems well-suited for the playoffs.

Oklahoma City hasn't "been there" with this group, but it's a close-knit collection of versatile talent that owns the home-court advantage through the conference finals. Take Oklahoma City to win the West at very generous odds of +650.

No. 2 Nuggets (-310) vs. No. 7 Lakers (+250)

Series bet: Denver's late-season stumble in San Antonio cost the Nuggets the top seed -- much to Los Angeles' chagrin. If there were doubts as to whether Denver will be ready, the Spurs certainly helped to ease them. No way the Nuggets overlook Round 1, and there is a way to take back some of that -310 juice. Denver matches up very well and has answers to virtually every Lakers question -- in Game 1 and for the series. Go with a parlay of Nuggets to win Game 1 and the series, -165.

Futures bet: The improved play of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell has allowed LeBron James to be more selective and less ball-dominant this season. Couple that with the X-factor -- Denver's Aaron Gordon is the perfect playoff defender to match up against James -- and you have a nice Game 1 player prop at plus money.

Bet on LeBron James under 24.5 points in Game 1, +102.

No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves (+125) vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns (-150)

Series bet: Minnesota was the West's top seed for much of the final month of the regular season, but the final week served to push the Timberwolves into disarray. Karl-Anthony Towns returned from an 18-game absence caused by a knee injury, but the feel-good chemistry did not, and then Phoenix showed how to beat Minnesota -- convincingly and on the road.

The Timberwolves force teams into a high number of mid-range shots, but the Suns make their living burying mid-range jumpers. Bad matchup.

Take the good price on the Suns to win the series, -150.

Futures bet: Minnesota's worst defensive game came on Nov. 15 against the Suns, who swept the three-game, regular-season series. The Timberwolves' young leader, Anthony Edwards, must force the issue and be less of a facilitator and more of a scorer.

The Suns, meanwhile, will take the open shots inevitably created by Minnesota's double-teams. Scoring will be comfortably split among Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, leaving the series' top scorer bet in Edwards' capable hands. Go with Edwards at +115 to be the leading scorer in the series.

No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (+110) vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks (-130)

Series bet: No, Clippers fans, we just can't believe in your team. Even though it's become trendy to blindly back the Mavericks this week, there are good reasons. Dallas stars Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic shred efforts to double-team them, and each is a nightmare to guard one on one.

Los Angeles' best player, Kawhi Leonard, missed the past two weeks, and the best the team could say after he reportedly received an injection in his ailing left knee this week was that it was "cautiously optimistic" regarding Leonard's availability for Sunday. Feels like Dallas in six -- or fewer. Go with Mavericks -1.5 games for the series, +118 at FanDuel.

Futures bet: Doncic averaged 37.5 minutes per game this season, pulling down 9.2 rebounds. Clippers center Ivica Zubac also averaged 9.2 rebounds per game, but in only 26.4 minutes.

The Los Angeles rotation figures to be shorter, yielding more minutes for Zubac. He is favored at DraftKings to be the top rebounder in the series, but at FanDuel it's Doncic (-125) over Zubac (+130). Take Zubac.

Odds to win the Western Conference, per DraftKings:

Nuggets +135

Clippers +600

Thunder +650

Mavericks +700

Suns +850

Timberwolves +1100

Lakers +1100

Pelicans +4500

Player Notes
Jarrett Allen Fri May 3 12:10pm

Cleveland Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen (ribs) remains listed as questionable for Friday night's Game 6 against the Orlando Magic. The big man was spotted at shootaround on Friday morning but his level of participation is unclear. He was unable to play in Game 5 on Tuesday due to the rib contusion, so it seems like he'll be a game-time decision in this potential series-clinching game. DFS managers will want to check back when it gets closer to tipoff since his presence usually means a bit of a value hit to Evan Mobley when it comes to rebounds and defensive stats.

Gary Harris Fri May 3 11:50am

Orlando Magic guard Gary Harris (hamstring) was officially listed as questionable when the injury report first came out, and head coach Jamahl Mosley confirmed that to still be the case. During shootaround on Friday morning, Mosley was asked if Harris was likely to play and he said, "He went through walk-through. He's going to go through his shooting slot, so he'll still be more of a game-time decision." While it's encouraging that he went through the walk-through and is still scheduled to get his shooting in, there could be some discomfort leading up to game time. DFS managers will want to monitor his situation if thinking about using him in any lineups.

Josh Hart Fri May 3 11:50am

New York Knicks guard/forward Josh Hart delivered yet again with huge hustle plays and a dagger three that officially moved the team into the second round of the playoffs. The former Villanova Wildcat finished the game with 16 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists, and two turnovers while shooting 5-for-11 overall and 3-for-5 from three. He was the Knicks' second-leading scorer in this series and had double the amount of rebounds per game compared to their second-best rebounder. On top of that, he shot some of his best percentages from three in his career as he registered 43.2% from deep on 6.2 attempts per game.

Joel Embiid Fri May 3 11:40am

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid fouled out late in Game 6 after intentionally fouling with the clock ticking down, but he was able to keep the team in the game while battling on the offensive end and on the boards. The former MVP posted 39 points, 13 rebounds, two assists, one steal, one block, and five turnovers. He also shot 12-for-25 from the floor, 2-for-5 from beyond the arc, and 13-for-13 from the free throw line. Despite the injured knee and Bells Palsy, the superstar big man ended this series with averages of 33.0 points, 10.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game with shooting splits of .444/.333/.859.

Jalen Brunson Fri May 3 11:20am

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson turned in a historic performance after posting a third-straight 40-point performance and his fourth game of at least 39 points and six assists. In Game 6, Brunson finished with 41 points, 12 assists, three rebounds, and two turnovers while shooting 13-for-27 from the floor and 3-for-8 from deep. The Villanova product hit multiple big shots down the stretch of the game to put it just out of reach for the 76ers and lead the Knicks to their second playoff series win since the 2012-13 season. Despite a rough start in the first two games of the series, he found his rhythm and carried the offense to the tune of 35.5 points per game and he's currently the leading scorer throughout the entire playoffs so far.

Khris Middleton Thu May 2 9:50pm

Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton had 14 points in Thursday's loss to the Pacers. He added four boards, three assists, and two steals. While the veteran did all he could, his efforts weren't enough to lead Milwaukee to a win, eliminating the team from the playoffs. Middleton finished the regular season by averaging 15.1 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.7 rebounds. However, as usual, the 32-year-old was limited to 55 games due to injury. Middleton's play is never a concern. But his inability to stay healthy will negatively impact his fantasy stock heading into the 2024-25 campaign, no matter where he's playing.

Damian Lillard Thu May 2 9:40pm

Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (Achilles) was back in the lineup for Thursday's playoff meeting with Indiana after missing a few contests with an Achilles injury. He played well, scoring a game-high 28 points while shooting 7-for-16 from the field and 4-for-12 from deep. Unfortunately, Lillard's return didn't help, as the Pacers got the win to eliminate the Bucks from the postseason. Lillard has been one of the league's most potent scorers for years. However, the 33-year-old took a step backward in his first season with the Bucks, averaging 24.3 points, nearly eight fewer than he had in his final season in Portland. On a positive note, he logged 73 games during the regular season, his most since 2017-18. But it appears Lillard is starting to regress statistically, so his fantasy ranking for next season won't be as favorable.

Jarrett Allen Thu May 2 9:20pm

Cleveland Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen (rib) is questionable for Friday's matchup with Orlando. The veteran is bothered by a right rib contusion, keeping him off the floor for Tuesday's win. He didn't practice on Thursday, although it appears he still has a chance to suit up for Game 6. However, if Allen misses another contest, Isaac Okoro will likely remain in the starting lineup. On the other hand, Marcus Morris Sr., coming off a 12-point effort in Game 5, would be the preferred DFS value option if Allen can't go.

Tim Hardaway Jr. Thu May 2 9:10pm

Dallas Mavericks guard/forward Tim Hardaway Jr. (ankle) remains out for Friday's matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers. The sharpshooting veteran tweaked his right ankle in Game 2 of this series and hasn't been available since. Without him, Maxi Kleber and Josh Green have gotten more minutes, even though neither player has been able to take advantage of their extra time on the floor.

Terance Mann Thu May 2 9:10pm

Los Angeles Clippers guard Terance Mann (leg) is questionable for Friday's postseason encounter with the Mavericks. As expected, Kawhi Leonard (knee) remains out, so the team needs Mann to help fill the void in the lineup. The 27-year-old has posted double-digit scoring performances three times during the series. However, Mann is not a consistent fantasy producer, although the upside is there for the DFS managers willing to take a risk, assuming he plays. If he doesn't, Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, and Russell Westbrook should absorb most of his minutes.

Kawhi Leonard Thu May 2 9:00pm

Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (knee) won't play on Friday against the Mavericks. There isn't any new information concerning his ailment. However, the Clippers need to win the next two games to advance to the next round, although they will likely need to do it without Leonard in the lineup. As usual, Paul George and James Harden will do their best to lead the offense in Game 6. But Norman Powell, Russell Westbrook, and Terance Mann should continue to get more minutes and shot opportunities. With that said, nobody on the Clippers' roster has been consistent from a fantasy standpoint.

Mitchell Robinson Thu May 2 9:00pm

New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (ankle) will be available for Game 6 against Philadelphia on Thursday. He has missed one game in the series with an ankle injury, but Robinson has been upgraded from questionable to available ahead of the Game 6 tip-off. Robinson has an important role to play behind starting center Isaiah Hartenstein, as the Knicks' success depends a lot on how well they deal with Joel Embiid.

Joel Embiid Thu May 2 8:50pm

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (knee) will be in the lineup for Thursday's Game 6 clash against the Knicks. He has been upgraded from questionable to available. Embiid has yet to miss any playoff action after returning from a left knee injury, and another big performance is expected from him in Thursday's elimination game. The 76ers superstar looked quite lethargic in Tuesday's survival battle but still produced a triple-double. He's averaging close to 32 points in the postseason with 10.4 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 1.2 steals.

Tyrese Haliburton Thu May 2 6:00pm

Indiana Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton (back) will be good to go for Thursday's Game 6 against Milwaukee. An issue with his lower back has kept Haliburton on the injury report for the past few games, but the team has upgraded him from questionable to available ahead of Thursday's action. The young Pacers star will aim to produce a big finish to the series. Through five games, he's gotten to the 20-point mark only once, averaging 15.8 points in the first-round matchup with 5.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists.

Patrick Beverley Thu May 2 6:00pm

Milwaukee Bucks point guard Patrick Beverley (oblique) has been upgraded from probable to available for Thursday's Game 6 against Indiana. Beverley is set to make up Milwaukee's starting backcourt with the returning Damian Lillard (Achilles). He will likely take a backseat offensively, but Beverley's tenacity on the defensive end is a big asset for the Bucks, and he should continue to get a healthy dose of action. Through the first five games in the series, Beverley has averaged 34.0 minutes a night, posting 8.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.2 steals.

Khris Middleton Thu May 2 5:50pm

Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (ankle) has been officially cleared to play in Thursday's Game 6 against the Pacers. The team has upgraded him from probable to available. Middleton has been huge in the series for Milwaukee, but he will likely play a slightly lesser role offensively on Thursday as Damian Lillard (Achilles) returns to the lineup. With that said, the team needs another big performance from Middleton to survive in the series, with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) still on the shelf.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Thu May 2 5:50pm

Milwaukee Bucks forward/center Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) isn't ready to return to the lineup on Thursday against Indiana. He was considered a game-time call for the contest along with Damian Lillard (Achilles), but while Lillard will be back in action, Antetokounmpo is still left to wait for his chance to return. It won't come in the 2024 playoffs if Milwaukee loses on Thursday. Bobby Portis was one of the stars in Milwaukee's Game 5 victory, recording 29 points with 10 rebounds, and he's set for another start in Antetokounmpo's place on Thursday.

Damian Lillard Thu May 2 5:30pm

Milwaukee Bucks point guard Damian Lillard (Achilles) will play in Game 6 against Indiana on Thursday. Milwaukee gets its superstar guard back after Lillard sat out two games with an Achilles injury. He's set to play a huge role on Thursday as the Bucks try to fight off elimination once again. Lillard is averaging 32.3 points and 5.3 assists in the series, shooting 44.4 percent from outside.

Gary Harris Thu May 2 5:20pm

Orlando Magic guard/forward Gary Harris (hamstring) is considered a game-time call for Friday's Game 6 against Cleveland. He suffered a right hamstring strain in Game 5, exiting the contest early. Harris has started all five games for the Magic in the playoffs, averaging 26.2 minutes. However, he hasn't been very productive, posting only 3.8 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.2 steals. Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony could get more playing opportunities on Friday, but the two haven't made any noise in the playoffs and would be risky choices for DFS managers.

Alex Caruso Thu May 2 3:50pm

Chicago Bulls guard Alex Caruso was awarded the NBA's Hustle Award on Thursday afternoon. Always known for his effort and grit, the 30-year-old earned recognition for what he brings to the court consistently. For the season, Caruso averaged 10.1 points per game but made his biggest impact on the defensive end by averaging one block and 1.7 steals per game. He made the All-Defensive first team last season and now has been rewarded for his hustle in 2024. Finishing in second place in the voting was Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes, and Golden State Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski came in third place.