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Offseason | NBA Week 26

NBA Play-In: Warriors-Kings Preview, Props & Prediction

Tue Apr 16 3:09pm ET
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The Golden State Warriors sent the Sacramento Kings home last season by rallying to win a seven-game first-round playoff series with the finale set in California's capital city.

The Warriors once again will try to make it a disappointing ending for host Sacramento on Tuesday night when they face the Kings in a loser-goes-home Western Conference play-in contest.

TRENDING

The Warriors are consensus 2.5-point favorites. That includes at BetMGM, where they have been backed by 75 percent of the spread-line money while their -140 moneyline has drawn 80 percent of the money wagered.


The line has also shifted to 2.5 points at BetRivers, where Golden State opened as a 3.0-point favorite. The Warriors have also received lopsided support at the book, drawing 78 percent of the spread-line money while their -137 moneyline has been backed by a whopping 95 percent of the action.

Prediction: This feels like the end of the road for the Warriors' trio of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Where the road officially ends remains to be seen, but it won't be Tuesday night in Sacramento. --Warriors 115, Kings 108

PROP PICK

Domantas Sabonis Over 12.5 rebounds (-152 at BetRivers): This has been the most popular player prop at the book, drawing 4.2 percent of the total player prop money wagered on this game. Sabonis averaged 13.7 rebounds per game during the regular season and 14.1 in eight April games.

He had only eight in each of the past two matchups against the Warriors, but did pull down 18 in an October game at Golden State and 11 in a home loss to the Warriors five days later.

THE NEWS

Green said he expects to be roundly booed again when he steps on the court in Sacramento. His playoff antics from last season have not been forgotten as part of an electric series in which the Kings won the first two games before Golden State recovered to win four of the final five.

Curry's 50-point performance in Game 7 allowed the Warriors to advance, Green's stomping on the midsection of the Kings' Domantas Sabonis in the fourth quarter of Game 2 lives on as the series-defining visual.

"It kind of has brewed into (a rivalry)," said Green, "but for us, it's another game we have to go win. We've got to get it done."

Sabonis is having a monster season with 77 double-doubles, while teaming up with star point guard De'Aaron Fox to get the Kings in the playoffs for the second straight season after 16 consecutive fruitless campaigns.

The history of losing made last season's postseason ouster feel even harsher for Sacramento.

"It's exciting," Kings guard Davion Mitchell said of facing Golden State. "We get to get a little payback for last year. We know they're going to come here with energy. It's a home game. We know it's going to be loud. It's going to be physical. I think we are ready for it."

Sacramento floundered down the stretch with five setbacks in six games prior to hammering the visiting Portland Trail Blazers 121-82 in Sunday's regular-season finale.

The Kings were eyeing a possible top-six playoff spot when they sat 13 games above .500 with just 11 games left. But a 4-7 finish landed Sacramento in the high-stakes 9 vs. 10 game.

"We welcome anybody that's in front of us," Sacramento coach Mike Brown said. "We are just excited about an opportunity to play. And again, situations like this, we as a group right now, haven't been through. And so to go play one game right now, that's how I look at it and swing for the fences. Try to get a win."

KEY STAT

The Warriors had a hot finish with 10 wins in 12 games, including Sunday's 123-116 home win over the Utah Jazz. Golden State didn't permanently get over .500 until Feb. 15. After being five games under .500 on Jan. 27, the Warriors went 27-12 the rest of the regular season.

SERIES HISTORY

The teams split four regular-season meetings this season -- going 1-1 in both Sacramento and San Francisco.

THEY SAID IT

"We have a really good connection on this team, good chemistry, guys pulling for each other. So I've got a good feeling about what's ahead," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "I think we still have a chance to do something special.

"Now, obviously, it's (the) NCAA Tournament. We've got to get out of the first weekend here, win the first two and get to the first round, but we have a shot, so we're excited about that."

UP NEXT

The winner of the game between the No. 10 seed Warriors (46-36) and No. 9 Kings (46-36) will advance to play either the No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers or No. 7 New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. The winner on Friday advances to play the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs.

Green is confident his squad will still be playing next week.

"We just got to go win," Green said. "When this team's back is against the wall, I like how this group shows up."

Player Notes
Jayson Tatum Wed May 1 11:20pm

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum delivered 16 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists in the team's Game 5 series-clinching win over the Miami Heat. Tatum did not have to showcase his usual scoring excellence with the game out of hand early, but he still produced a double-double in just 32 minutes. The 26-year-old averaged 39.5 minutes per game in the series before tonight's game to show that the blowout impacted his fantasy output and time on the court. Kristaps Porzingis (calf) missing more games could mean more fantasy production from Tatum in the next round.

Jaylen Brown Wed May 1 11:20pm

Boston Celtics forward/guard Jaylen Brown scored 25 points in the team's Game 5 victory over the Miami Heat. Brown had his third game of the series with at least 20 points to help the Celtics advance to the next round. Boston had a relatively easy night on the job by taking control early and never letting up. The 27-year-old contributed to this dominant outing by shooting 11-for-19 from the field to lead the way. He also added five rebounds and two assists. Boston will see Brown having a higher ceiling in the second round, with starter Kristaps Porzingis (calf) expected to miss several more games.

Nikola Jovic Wed May 1 11:10pm

Miami Heat forward Nikola Jovic had eight points, seven boards, and four assists in Wednesday's meeting with the Celtics. Unfortunately, his efforts weren't enough, as Boston closed out the series in five games. At any rate, the 2022 No. 27 overall pick picked things up toward the end of the 2023-24 campaign. He ended the year by averaging 12.0 points and 4.6 rebounds in eight games in April. It appears Erik Spoelstra could give Jovic regular playing time next season, assuming he remains in Miami. However, the 20-year-old has a way to go before earning the trust of fantasy managers.

Duncan Robinson Wed May 1 11:00pm

Miami Heat guard/forward Duncan Robinson (back) finished with just two points in Wednesday's loss to Boston. Robinson admittedly wasn't healthy for this series. On a positive note, he finished the regular season by averaging 12.9 points, a significant upgrade from the 2022-23 campaign. Unfortunately, the 30-year-old has had issues staying healthy over the last few seasons, which is something for fantasy managers to consider moving ahead. There's also a chance Robinson won't be in Miami next season, considering the Heat have been trying to move him for years. Yet, a change of scenery could do him good, especially if he gets more minutes elsewhere.

Caleb Martin Wed May 1 10:50pm

Miami Heat forward Caleb Martin finished with 10 points in Wednesday's loss to the Boston Celtics. He added four boards and one assist. The 28-year-old was one of Miami's top rotational pieces during the regular season. He averaged a career-high 10 points. Unfortunately, he was limited to 64 games due to injury. That's been the theme for Martin throughout his career. He also isn't a consistent fantasy producer. Assuming he remains in Miami, he may battle for minutes with Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic throughout the 2024-25 campaign. Martin's injury woes over the years are another reason fantasy managers may look the other way.

Tyler Herro Wed May 1 10:50pm

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro struggled in Wednesday's loss to the Boston Celtics. While he had 15 points, he shot a rough 6-for-19 from the field and 1-for-8 from downtown. With Miami's year finished, Herro will get some much-needed rest. He ended the regular season by averaging a career-high 20.8 points with 5.3 boards and 4.5 assists. Unfortunately, he was limited to only 42 games because of various ailments. Without question, the 24-year-old can be a potent fantasy performer. However, his inability to remain on the court will significantly lower his fantasy value heading into the 2024-25 campaign. The Heat might also make some roster moves during the offseason, so Herro's name will likely be mentioned in several trade scenarios.

Bam Adebayo Wed May 1 10:40pm

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo had a team-high 23 points in Wednesday's loss to Boston. He added six assists, five rebounds, and two blocks. Although Miami's year is finished, Adebayo can hold his head high. While he regressed slightly in some statistical categories during the regular season, he improved in others, especially with his career-high 35.7% shooting from behind the arc. The Heat will need to make adjustments to the roster this offseason if the club hopes to make another deep postseason run. Yet, Adebayo will remain one of the team's top producers on both ends of the floor regardless of any potential changes, so he'll likely be a top-30 fantasy option heading into the 2024-25 campaign.

Luka Doncic Wed May 1 9:30pm

Dallas Mavericks point guard Luka Doncic (knee) has been officially upgraded from probable to available for Wednesday's Game 5 against the Clippers. The Slovenian superstar said Wednesday morning that his right knee is "not good," and he has also been dealing with an illness lately, but Doncic is ready to play through pain. Despite battling health issues, Doncic has averaged a massive 43.3 minutes in the 2024 playoffs and should be heavily involved again as Dallas attempts to grab a 3-2 series lead in Los Angeles.

Tyrese Haliburton Wed May 1 9:20pm

Indiana Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton (back) remains on the injury report ahead of Game 6 against Milwaukee on Thursday. He's been battling back spasms lately, but the Pacers have kept him in the lineup. It's been an up-and-down series for Haliburton, who is averaging 15.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 9.2 assists. After posting a double-double and a triple-double in back-to-back games, the Pacers point guard has been limited to only 10 assists across the last two contests.

Patrick Beverley Wed May 1 9:20pm

Milwaukee Bucks point guard Patrick Beverley (oblique) will likely continue to play through injury on Thursday against Indiana. He's listed as probable with an oblique strain for Game 6 of the first-round series. Beverley has just had his strongest outing of the matchup, leading by example at both ends of the floor in Tuesday's 115-92 win. He recorded 13 points with 12 assists, four rebounds, one block, and two steals.

Khris Middleton Wed May 1 9:10pm

Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (ankle) is considered probable for Thursday's Game 6 against Indiana. Middleton has been playing through an ankle injury in the series and is expected to do so again. Despite tweaking his right ankle in Game 2 and missing some practice time, Middleton has put together a three-game double-double streak. He's averaged 32.0 points and 10.7 rebounds during the stretch.

Damian Lillard Wed May 1 9:10pm

Milwaukee Bucks point guard Damian Lillard (Achilles) will likely remain out for Game 6 against the Pacers on Thursday. He's again listed on the injury report as doubtful. Malik Beasley has started back-to-back games with Lillard unavailable. The former Laker has gone for 38 points across the two games with very impressive 8-for-13 shooting from three-point range. Patrick Beverley is also counted on a lot more offensively. He recorded a nice 13-point, 12-assist double-double in Tuesday's Game 5 win.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Wed May 1 9:00pm

Milwaukee Bucks forward/center Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) continues to carry a doubtful designation on the injury report ahead of Thursday's Game 6 against Indiana. After the Bucks extended the first-round series with a 115-92 win on Tuesday, head coach Doc Rivers said Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard (Achilles) are "very, very, very close" to returning, but the doubtful tag indicates that Thursday's game will come too soon for them. Bobby Portis will be counted on to start instead of Antetokounmpo again. He's had a very good series with four double-doubles in five games.

Mitchell Robinson Wed May 1 8:50pm

New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (ankle) has been listed as questionable on the injury report for Thursday's Game 6 against Philadelphia. The seven-footer was back in action in Game 5 on Tuesday after sitting out one contest. Robinson produced an impressive defensive display across 25 minutes with two blocks and three steals. He also had seven rebounds while settling for two points. If he's deemed good to go, Robinson will continue to split minutes with Isaiah Hartenstein, who went for six points, seven rebounds, four assists, one steal, and one block in Game 5.

Mike Conley Wed May 1 5:50pm

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Mike Conley has been awarded the NBA's 2023-24 Twyman-Stokes Teammate of the Year. This is the second time he has earned this honor in his career, as he was given the award during the 2018-2019 season as well. In the voting, the 36-year-old finished ahead of Brooklyn Nets forward Mikal Bridges and New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson. Conley's efforts helped Minnesota earn the third seed in the Western Conference this year. He will try to propel the Timberwolves to a deep playoff run as they prepare for a highly anticipated second-round matchup with the Denver Nuggets.

Joel Embiid Wed May 1 5:40pm

Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (knee) is considered questionable for Thursday's game versus the New York Knicks because of a left-knee injury. This injury designation has become the norm for the superstar big man, but he has not missed a single game in this series. The 76ers have a ton of momentum heading into Game 6 after their thrilling victory on Tuesday, however, they still face elimination and will need Embiid to be at his best to keep their season alive again. Despite his field-goal percentage being lower by more than 9% compared to the regular season, he has still posted dominant numbers during this postseason, with averages of 31.8 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. The official word on his playing status will come on Thursday.

Duncan Robinson Wed May 1 5:40pm

Miami Heat guard Duncan Robinson (back) will play in Wednesday's contest against the Boston Celtics. The sharpshooter has continued to play through a back injury, and Miami will need everyone to step up as they face elimination in Game 5. Robinson has not made much of an impact in this series, playing less than 10 minutes in both of the previous two games. However, the Heat continue to struggle with injuries, as Jimmy Butler (knee), Terry Rozier (neck), and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (hip) are all unavailable to play, which could lead to a bigger role for Robinson.

Haywood Highsmith Wed May 1 5:40pm

Miami Heat forward Haywood Highsmith (foot) will suit up for Wednesday's game versus the Boston Celtics. The 27-year-old is listed on the injury report because of plantar fasciitis in his right foot, however, he will be able to play through the ailment as Miami hopes to keep their season alive in Game 5. The Heat are facing elimination against a talented Celtics team, and it is likely Highsmith will play a larger role since Miami is missing key players such as Jimmy Butler (knee), Terry Rozier (neck), and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (hip). Highsmith could be a sneaky play for DFS managers for Wednesday's game, as he has seen at least 19 minutes in every matchup of this series.

Tyrese Haliburton Wed May 1 9:30am

Indiana Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton had a rough outing in Game 5 against Milwaukee on Tuesday, finishing a 115-92 loss with 16 points, four rebounds, and six assists. Haliburton turned in a below-par line despite a hot start that saw him hit two treys inside the first four minutes. He ended up going 4-for-10 from downtown with a 6-for-14 overall effort from the field. Pascal Siakam was limited to 12 points, and the Pacers definitely need more from their leaders to wrap up the series in Game 6 on Thursday.

Bobby Portis Wed May 1 9:20am

Milwaukee Bucks forward/center Bobby Portis was back to his best against Indiana on Tuesday, helping the team extend the series in Game 5 with a 29-point, 10-rebound double-double. He shot 14-for-24 from the field and had one assist and one steal as well. This was an impressive bounce-back performance from Portis after he was limited to only four points and three rebounds in Game 4 due to an early ejection. Filling in for Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) in the first unit, Portis has done a great job, averaging 15.8 points and 10.6 rebounds in the series. He should remain a double-double threat even if Antetokounmpo is cleared for action and Portis heads back to the bench.