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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Lineup Prep: Championship Games

Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Gibbs can produce big this week


Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . 

Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.

I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.

Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.

I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.

I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!

The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.

I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.

News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.

HOT PLAYS

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.

COLD PLAYS 

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.

Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.

SLEEPERS

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.

Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Javon Baker May 24 4:10pm ET
Javon Baker

The New England Patriots signed fourth-round rookie wide receiver Javon Baker to his rookie contract on Friday, according to ESPN's Mike Reiss. Baker, the 110th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft was rumored to potentially come off the board on Day 2, but New England, a team that needed pass-catching help, stopped his fall. Baker earned first-team All-Big-12 honors in his final season at UCF after hauling in 52 passes for 1,139 yards and seven touchdowns. The Patriots have a wide-open wide receiver depth chart consisting of Kendrick Bourne, K.J. Osborn, Demario Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and second-round rookie Ja'Lynn Polk. It's difficult to predict who will start in three-wide sets in 2024, but the passing offense will likely offer limited fantasy upside under rookie quarterback Drake Maye when he takes over for Jacoby Brissett.

From RotoBaller

Caleb Williams May 24 3:13pm ET
Caleb Williams

Dynasty | Caleb Williams is reportedly struggling to pick up the Chicago offense. Dynasty Analysis: In what amounts to be nothing more than an overreaction news piece, it seems Williams is reportedly being thrown into the fire early in Chicago and struggling against the Bears first-string defense. Dynasty managers should keep in mind we're not even into June, so this is nothing more than a rookie getting his feet wet in the NFL. Williams remains the favorite to be the 1.01 in Superflex drafts this off-season.

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Calvin Austin III May 24 2:00pm ET
Calvin Austin III

The Athletic's Mark Kaboly writes that the No. 2 wide receiver spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers is currently wide open. Quez Watkins, Calvin Austin III, Marquez Callaway and Van Jefferson could all be competing for the job this summer at training camp if the team doesn't add a legitimate No. 2 receiver via trade before then. Austin could be the most consistent of the group, but rookie Roman Wilson also can't be counted out for now because of his quickness. George Pickens is the team's unquestioned top wideout this year after the Steelers traded Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers this offseason. Because of the lack of clarity beyond Pickens right now, tight end Pat Freiermuth, who has already developed notable chemistry with new quarterback Russell Wilson, could be one to watch for a breakout season.

From RotoBaller

Russell Wilson May 24 1:50pm ET
Russell Wilson

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson has looked on point during organized team activities this week with his new team, and the 35-year-old still appears to have plenty of arm strength. Wilson's accuracy was spot on this week, whether in warmups, drills or competition periods, including a 70-yard pass in stride to receiver Quez Watkins on Thursday. His ability to sell play-action fakes was also noticeably better than the other QBs this week. Wilson is in pole position to open the 2024 season as Pittsburgh's starter under center for Week 1, but Justin Fields, a former first-rounder, is competing to make starts for the Steelers at some point in 2024 as well in what is a contract year for him. Fields' presence and dual-threat abilities will be a threat to Wilson's value as a QB2 in fantasy in his first year in the Steel City.

From RotoBaller

Pat Freiermuth May 24 1:50pm ET
Pat Freiermuth

Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth has been one of new quarterback Russell Wilson's favorite targets during organized team activities this week. The Athletic's Mark Kaboly writes that it's hard not to notice the connection the two have already built. The two had a throwing session in San Diego earlier in the spring, which might have helped. Wilson seems to have the most trust in Freiermuth right now, and the big tight end is fully healthy and is entering a contract year in 2024. Having a more accurate QB and an offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith who will highlight the tight end position could be the factors that lead to the 25-year-old having a breakout year. A hamstring injury cost Freiermuth five games in 2023, and he caught just 32 passes for a career-low 308 yards and two touchdowns in 12 regular-season games (nine starts) in 2023. With better health, he's a value pick at TE to consider in fantasy this fall.

From RotoBaller

Jarrett Stidham May 24 1:40pm ET
Jarrett Stidham

As he competes with both rookie first-round quarterback Bo Nix and former first-rounder Zach Wilson in offseason workouts, Denver Broncos QB Jarrett Stidham said he's much more comfortable running the offense in his second year with the team. Stidham was with head coach Sean Payton a year ago and will have an advantage over both Nix and Wilson in that area. His four career starts in the NFL have come in the last two seasons with the Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. "I'm not out there thinking as much, I'm just out there playing free and playing more confident, which is great. It's been good," Stidham said. It remains to be seen who will emerge as the team's Week 1 starter after training camp and the preseason, but if it's Stidham, he'll probably be no more than a low-end QB2 in fantasy. Even if Stidham wins the job to begin the year, it would be a surprise if Nix doesn't make starts at some point in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Caleb Williams May 24 1:30pm ET
Caleb Williams

Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in this year's NFL draft out of USC, has looked like a rookie in the early going at organized team activities this week. The Bears are hoping that their strong defense will prepare the rookie QB and help him improve by the time he's facing other teams in games that matter. The Bears are installing a new offense under coordinator Shane Waldron and have a rookie signal-caller learning the speed and intricacies at the next level, so it's not exactly a surprise that he's struggling early on. Williams also hasn't had first-rounder Rome Odunze or Keenan Allen to throw to. Odunze is sitting out with a minor injury. Fantasy managers shouldn't read too much into Williams' early struggles against a strong defense in voluntary offseason workouts, but it's certainly worth noting.

From RotoBaller

Christian Watson May 24 1:20pm ET
Christian Watson

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (hamstring) said this week that he's made significant progress toward ending his hamstring issues for good. Tests this offseason showed a muscle imbalance in his legs, which likely contributed to his problems -- he has missed 11 games in his first two seasons, including eight in 2023, due to a pulled right hamstring. Packers coaches have raved about the progress Watson has made so far this year, and the 25-year-old former second-rounder in 2022 out of North Dakota State looked explosive as a full participant in organized team activities on Tuesday. Watson had a 20% difference in muscle mass between his right and left legs. Now, it's between 8% and 10%. It's interesting news, but most fantasy managers may still be hesitant to roster a player with the injury history he has early in his career. But when healthy, Watson has the most upside of any of Green Bay's current wideouts.

From RotoBaller

Anthony Richardson May 24 1:10pm ET
Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (shoulder), who suffered a severe AC joint sprain in his right shoulder in Week 5 of last year that required season-ending surgery in October, is not limited at all during organized team activities and is throwing 60-yard bombs. The 22-year-old also dismissed any notion that he needs to change his dual-threat playing style to remain available. He described his injury last year as unlucky rather than unwise. Through the first two days of OTAs, head coach Shane Steichen said Richardson has "been pretty smooth." Richardson said some days his surgically repaired shoulder feels "a little achy," but he's not worried about the occasional soreness. He said he's also more comfortable in the offense in his second year in the NFL. Richardson is a bit of an injury risk, but he has clear high-end QB1 appeal, which will make him attractive in fantasy drafts.

From RotoBaller

Jonathan Taylor May 24 1:10pm ET
Jonathan Taylor

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has been getting valuable repetitions during organized team activities this week with second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. Last year at this time, Taylor and Richardson didn't practice together in the offseason because Taylor was hurt and in a contract dispute. When he returned in Week 5, Taylor played with Richardson for two snaps before Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Taylor missed seven games in 2023 due to ankle and thumb injuries but ended the year with season-highs in carries (30) and rushing yards (188), including a 48-yard touchdown run. The 25-year-old should be a lock for 1,000 rushing yards in 2024 if he's healthy, and his ceiling will be pretty high if Richardson remains healthy all years as well, although the dynamic QB could vulture plenty of TDs at the goal line.

From RotoBaller

John Ross May 24 11:13am ET
John Ross

Dynasty | The Eagles have signed free agent wide receiver John Ross. Dynasty Analysis: Ross was last seen with the Chiefs prior to deciding to retire around a year ago. Instead, the former fastest man in the league has decided to give it one more go and takes the place of the newly retired DeVante Parker on the roster, at least for now. Ross will not be guaranteed a roster spot and while this is a fun story to follow, it's doubtful we see any kind of fantasy value emerging from Ross, a former first round pick who busted in Cincinnati.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

La'Mical Perine May 24 12:40am ET
La'Mical Perine

The Pittsburgh Steelers have signed free agent running back La'Mical Perine to a one-year deal, they announced on Thursday. Perine had been cut loose by the Kansas City Chiefs roughly one week earlier. A fourth-round pick in 2020, Perine has never been a major contributor out of the backfield. His best season came as a rookie with the New York Jets when he totaled 295 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. He has just 33 touches over seven games since then, though he did log one start with the Chiefs in 2023 (21 rushes, 76 rushing yards, three receptions, 33 receiving yards). Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have the top two running back spots occupied in Pittsburgh, so Perine is presumably competing for the third-string role with versatile veteran Cordarrelle Patterson, former Harvard standout Aaron Shampklin, and undrafted rookie Daijun Edwards. He remains off the fantasy radar.

From RotoBaller

Blake Corum May 24 12:30am ET
Blake Corum

The Los Angeles Rams have asked running back Blake Corum to evolve into a three-down back, according to Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic. Specifically, he's working to improve his route running, pass-catching, and pass-protection skills. This is an interesting note out of Los Angeles for a couple of reasons. First, Corum was viewed as a goal-line and change-of-pace option when drafted by the Rams just a few weeks ago. Expanding his role suggests Los Angeles has high expectations and optimism for the running back, and it could also lead to more snaps and touches (which equates to extra fantasy points). Second, the Rams' request for Corum to take on a larger role could have some connection to Kyren Williams (foot) being sidelined at OTAs. If the Rams think Williams could be delayed this offseason, it only makes sense that they look to get Corum involved as their No. 1 running back for the time being. Similarly, expanding Corum's skill set prepares him for the opportunity to jump into the starting role during the regular season should Williams suffer a different injury and miss time. The landing spot of the Rams wasn't immediately attractive for fantasy managers looking at drafting Corum. However, the latest signs out of Los Angeles suggest that the Michigan product could get his fair share of work right away in 2024. His fantasy value should climb as September draws nearer.

From RotoBaller

Malik Cunningham May 24 12:20am ET
Malik Cunningham

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Malik Cunningham has officially transitioned to wide receiver, according to his listing on the team's website. The Louisville product even hauled in some passes during Thursday's OTAs. This move has been roughly a year in the making for Cunningham, who previously drew attention thanks to his athleticism and flashy playing style last preseason with the New England Patriots. The Patriots were reportedly interested in using him at both quarterback and wide receiver, but they ultimately made him active for just one game and deployed him under center. The Ravens poached him from the Patriots' practice squad in December, but he only appeared in one game with Baltimore, too. In theory, though, this official switch to wide receiver could allow Cunningham to carve out more opportunities, even if it's in a depth role. With most teams carrying around a half-dozen receivers on their 53-man rosters, there's a chance that Cunningham could be active in Week 1. Of course, that's dependent on him producing throughout training camp and the preseason. Even if he does make the team, he's unlikely to generate any fantasy appeal.

From RotoBaller

Maxx Crosby May 24 12:10am ET
Maxx Crosby

The Las Vegas Raiders and star defensive end Maxx Crosby have agreed to a restructured contract that pays him an extra $6 million in 2024, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com. The team also moved an additional $1.2 million into 2025. As Schefter notes, the Raiders wanted to reward Crosby for being a standout player and leader. This move accomplishes those goals while not altering the total length of his contract. He still has three more years left on his deal, tying him to Vegas through the 2026 season. That's bad news for AFC West quarterbacks, of course. Crosby tallied 90 tackles (23 for loss), 14.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles through 17 starts last year.

From RotoBaller

Jaleel McLaughlin May 24 12:10am ET
Jaleel McLaughlin

Denver Broncos running backs Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin "will face a challenging battle to maintain their roles this offseason," according to Nick Kosmider of The Athletic. He notes that the same is true for Javonte Williams. It appears as though all three holdover running backs in Denver have reduced job security after the team drafted Audric Estime and signed Blake Watson. There will be plenty of competition throughout the offseason as the Broncos work to determine which running backs are worthy of key volume in 2024. However, as of now, it appears there's at least some favor for Estime and Watson while the three returners may need to do a little extra to prove themselves. From a fantasy perspective, Williams and Estime seem like the most intriguing names, but Perine and Watson (and even McLaughlin) benefit from their pass-catching skills.

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Javonte Williams May 24 12:10am ET
Javonte Williams

Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams "will face a challenging battle" to maintain his role heading into the 2024 season, according to Nick Kosmider of The Athletic. He notes that the same is true for Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin. It appears as though all three holdover running backs in Denver have reduced job security after the team drafted Audric Estime and signed Blake Watson. There will be plenty of competition throughout the offseason as the Broncos work to determine which running backs are worthy of key volume in 2024. However, as of now, it appears there's at least some favor for Estime and Watson while the three returners may need to do a little extra to prove themselves. From a fantasy perspective, Williams and Estime seem like the most intriguing names, but Perine and Watson (and even McLaughlin) benefit from their pass-catching skills.

From RotoBaller

Jerome Baker May 23 7:30pm ET
Jerome Baker

Seattle Seahawks linebacker Jerome Baker (wrist) didn't take part in organized team activities on Wednesday. Baker injured his right wrist in the Week 18 regular-season finale last year while playing for the Miami Marlins and required offseason surgery. The 27-year-old is still recovering from his surgery, and it remains to be seen what his availability will be like for mandatory minicamp next month and training camp this summer. When healthy, Baker should help make up for the offseason losses of both Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner at the linebacker position in Seattle. The former third-round pick of the Dolphins in 2018 out of Ohio State has 22.5 sacks, 382 solo tackles, 31 tackles for loss, 46 QB hits, five interceptions (two returned for touchdowns), 21 passes defended and six forced fumbles in his six years in the league.

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Uchenna Nwosu May 23 7:20pm ET
Uchenna Nwosu

Seattle Seahawks linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (pectoral) said last month that he "absolutely" plans to be ready for training camp this summer after having surgery last October to fix a torn pectoral. Nwosu was seen at organized team activities on Wednesday working in a positional drill and he later took part in team periods and didn't look to be at all limited. OTAs are non-contact practices, but it's still good progress for the 27-year-old former second-round pick by the Los Angeles Chargers in 2018 out of USC. He tore his pectoral muscle back in Week 7 in 2023 and missed the rest of the season, but barring a setback, Nwosu should be ready for Week 1 of the 2024 regular season this fall. The Seahawks signed Nwosu to a three-year, $45 million extension after he had a career-best 9.5 sacks in 2022.

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Zac Taylor May 23 7:10pm ET
Zac Taylor

Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has decided to hand over the direction of the offense to new offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher this year. "I'll take a step back this spring," Taylor said, "And let [Pitcher] take ownership in the direction of the offense." Tight end Drew Sample said that Pitcher has "added new wrinkles." The Cincinnati Enquirer's Charlie Goldsmith wrote that the Bengals' playbook has changed more this offseason than it has in any offseason since quarterback Joe Burrow's rookie year. The Bengals are more interested in lining up under center this year, using the play-action passing game more and marrying their run game, their screens and their drop-back passing. It remains to be seen if Taylor will turn the play-calling over to Pitcher, too, but in general, it should be good news for Burrow and the rest of the offense in 2024.

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