Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Free-agent CB Steven Nelson (Texans) has announced his retirement from professional football. He did receive interest from the Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams, Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins this offseason but has decided to retire, according to sources.
From TheHuddle
Dynasty | Early reports are indicating the Vikings are planning on using both Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler extensively this season. Dynasty Analysis: Well, this isn't fun. Off-season reports don't mean much but dynasty managers who are leaning on Jones to be a featured option for the Vikings next season may be disappointed. It shouldn't be a shock as Chandler has looked good in spurts. Jones is also on a short-term deal and largely disappointed last season despite a monster playoff game against Dallas. Chandler may end up being a bargain this off-season.
Dynasty | The Tampa Bay Bucs have signed wide receiver Sterling Shepard. Dynasty Analysis: It's a feel-good story for Shepard but hardly a needle mover in dynasty leagues. Shepard could prove serviceable down the line should he make the team but that's no guarantee. Injuries have really affected his play over the past few years and he's not nearly the player he once was. Dynasty managers should simply keep him on their watch lists at the moment as he isn't roster worthy, despite finding a new home.
New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara is expected to participate in the mandatory minicamp this upcoming week, according to head coach Dennis Allen. Kamara did not report for the voluntary workouts this offseason.
Fantasy Spin: Kamara should be the main running back for the Saints again this season and should see plenty of touches each game. He should be a weekly starting option in all fantasy leagues this upcoming season.
From TheHuddle
New York Giants TE Darren Waller informed the team of his retirement from the NFL, according to sources Sunday, June 9.
Fantasy Spin: A move that was widely expected, the Giants will save $11.6 million against the salary cap. This opens up a chance for Daniel Bellinger and rookie Theo Johnson to take the starting role in the offense. For now, they can be considered potential streaming options in the right matchup.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent TE Marcedes Lewis (Bears) intends to re-sign with the Chicago Bears following a meeting Monday, June 10, according to sources.
From TheHuddle
New England Patriots WRs Javon Baker, Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, K.J. Osborn and Ja'Lynn Polk appear to be locks to make the team's 53-man roster at the beginning of the regular season, according to Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald. A handful of other receivers, such as Kayshon Boutte, Jalen Reagor, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton are battling for one or two roster spots.
Fantasy Spin: Another roster spot could open up for a wide receiver if Bourne, who is recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, begins the 2024 season on the Physically Unable to Perform List. Douglas, Osborn and Baker are worthy of consideration as late-round fliers in fantasy drafts but none should be viewed as a weekly starting option.
From TheHuddle
Kansas City Chiefs safety Nazeeh Johnson (knee) is taking part in offseason organized team activities and recorded a red-zone pass breakup during 11-on-11 drills on Friday. In addition, cornerback Joshua Williams picked a pass off in the red zone. Johnson missed all of last year due to a torn ACL but appears to be on track to be ready for training camp, the preseason and the start of the 2024 regular season this fall. The 25-year-old defensive back was a seventh-round selection by the Chiefs in 2022 out of Marshall. In his rookie campaign, he played in 11 games (no starts) and recorded just eight tackles (five solo). As long as he doesn't suffer a setback with his surgically repaired knee, Johnson will be competing for a depth role in KC's secondary this summer.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans center Juice Scruggs "is looking great" at organized team activities this offseason, according to head coach DeMeco Ryans. Scruggs has worked diligently this offseason to prepare for the 2024 campaign and looks visibly bigger, stronger and more mobile. He's a natural center and is a projected starter for the defending AFC South champions. The 24-year-old former second-rounder last year out of Penn State overcame a slow-healing hamstring injury and started to establish his presence at the line of scrimmage in seven games (six starts). Since an injury to Tytus Howard last year, Scruggs became a starter, including playoff games against the Browns and Ravens, and was a reliable presence on the left side of the line.
From RotoBaller
Former Miami Dolphins star cornerback Xavien Howard sent a male teenager a sexually explicit photograph of the teen's mother because she refused to get an abortion, a new court filing alleges. The allegation was made on Thursday in a lawsuit filed last year by a woman who is not the teenager's mother. The woman is accusing Howard of secretly recording them having sex and sharing the recordings with others. She said Howard also shared, without her consent, sex tapes she had agreed to make. Howard, 30, was released by Miami this offseason in a money-saving move and he remains a free agent. He is denying the claims, according to his attorney, Ted Craig. It remains to be seen if Howard will face any kind of suspension from the NFL.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions QB Hendon Hooker needs to 'take a step up' to secure the backup quarterback job from QB Nate Sudfeld, according to head coach Dan Campbell. 'We need to feel like by the end of camp this guy can run this offense,' Campbell said.
From TheHuddle
Buffalo Bills LB Von Miller (knee) has been practicing without a knee brace for the first time since suffering a right knee injury in 2022. 'I have continued to grind and continued to work on my knee,' Miller said. 'Everything revolves around my health and how my knee is feeling.'
From TheHuddle
Kansas City Chiefs defensive lineman BJ Thompson is in stable condition after suffering cardiac arrest during Thursday's practice. The 25-year-old was taken to the hospital by ambulance on Thursday morning. He was unconscious for an extended period, but Chiefs head trainer Rick Burkholder told reporters on Friday that he is now alert, awake, and recovering well. It's a scary development, but it sounds like his condition is improving and he will be okay. The 2023 fifth-round pick appeared in one game for Kansas City last season, racking up two tackles in the late-season win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders linebacker Jamin Davis hasn't had the impact the organization hoped for when he was selected with the No. 19 pick of the 2021 NFL draft out of Kentucky. He's appeared in 45 games over the last three seasons, collecting 269 tackles, seven sacks, two forced fumbles, one interception, six pass deflections, and 21.5 run stuffs. However, new head coach Dan Quinn is likely to start Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner on the inside in 2024, so Davis is getting the chance to earn playing time on the edge. "We're trying to really push him specifically on the versatility. So you'll see him working some with the defensive line, you'll see him working with [pass rush specialist] Ryan Kerrigan on the side, and we're adding parts to his game that maybe we didn't use and we're certainly trying to explore that." Davis is a talented player with physical tools, so there's a chance he could become a solid rotational pass rusher in what should be a much improved Washington defense this season. For now, Dante Fowler Jr., Dorance Armstrong, and Clelin Ferrell are likely the top three edge rushers on the depth chart. Heading into a contract year, Davis will have to show some upside to become an attractive free agent for the 2025 offseason.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings tight end Robert Tonyan is building chemistry with rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy at OTAs, according to Alec Lewis of The Athletic. The 30-year-old signed a one-year, $1.23 million deal to join the team this offseason, and he could compete for snaps while T.J. Hockenson (knee) works his way back from a late-season ACL tear. Tonyan spent five seasons with the Green Bay Packers and one year with the Chicago Bears and racked up 148 receptions for 1,549 yards and 17 touchdowns in 85 games. He led all tight ends with 11 touchdowns in 2020. Although his one season of fantasy upside looks to be an outlier and a result of playing with Aaron Rodgers, he should be slightly on the fantasy radar in deep tight-end premium leagues. He figured to compete with Josh Oliver, Johnny Mundt, and K'Neal Harry (recently moved to tight end) for early-season reps. Whoever earns the temporary TE1 job will likely have limited upside catching passes from Sam Darnold or McCarthy in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jalen Nailor (illness) was absent from practice this week due to an illness, according to Alec Lewis of The Athletic. It's unfortunate timing since the 25-year-old impressed in OTAs earlier this offseason, but absences have been a common theme. The 2022 sixth-round pick was limited to just six games last season with lower-body injuries and a concussion. Through his first 21 NFL games, he has hauled in just 12 passes for 208 yards and one touchdown. It'd be a surprise if he's on the fantasy football radar this year, as he's firmly behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on the depth chart. He'll have to beat out Brandon Powell and Trent Sherfield to start in three-wide sets, and even if he does, he'll have limited upside in an offense led by rookie J.J. McCarthy or veteran Sam Darnold.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. agreed to and signed his rookie deal on Friday, the team announced on X. The LSU product was selected with the No. 23 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after posting 68 receptions for 1,177 yards, and 17 receiving touchdowns (led nation) in his final collegiate season. With Jacksonville losing Calvin Ridley this offseason, they're expecting the 21-year-old to eventually develop into a No. 1 wide receiver for Trevor Lawrence. While wideout Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram are likely to be Lawrence's preferred targets early in the 2024 campaign, Thomas Jr. could become a solid weekly flex option later in the season. He should be able to fend off Gabe Davis if he lives up to his status as a first-round pick.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets tight ends Jeremy Ruckert and Kenny Yeboah caught a combined 18 passes for 179 yards and no touchdowns last season, but Jets reporter Robby Sabo expects them both to be "heavily involved" in the offense behind starter Tyler Conklin. "The reason they sent Uzomah packing and did not add to the TE room is due to the Jets' comfort with both players," Sabo wrote. While Conklin should be the clear target leader at the position, Ruckert or Yeboah could earn targets early in the season while Mike Williams (knee) recovers from his early-season ACL tear and rookie Malachi Corley gets comfortable in the offense. While neither player is worth drafting in most formats, they've been impressive at OTAs and should be monitored in deep tight-end premium setups.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles rookie running back Will Shipley was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft despite the team already having Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell on the roster. The Eagles weren't pegged as a team that could take a running back before the last few rounds, but the Clemson product was clearly on the radar. According to Eagles reporter Eliot Shorr-Parks, the 21-year-old is flashing as a receiver and could take reps from Gainwell in 2024. Shipley caught 85 passes for 602 yards and two touchdowns in three seasons as a Tiger, so his success as a pass-catcher in practice is not much of a surprise. He could be a high-end fantasy football handcuff in a great offense, especially since Barkley has missed eight games over the last three seasons and is entering his age-27 season this year.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles tight end Grant Calcaterra is the current favorite to be the primary backup to Dallas Goedert, according to Eagles reporter Eliot Shorr-Parks. The 25-year-old has been behind Jack Stoll on the depth chart since entering the league in 2022 as a sixth-round pick, but Stoll is now with the New York Giants. Calcaterra will compete with Albert Okwuegbunam Jr. and the newly-acquired C.J. Uzomah for reps in 12-personnel. While the third-year pro won't have much fantasy upside as long as Goedert stays healthy, it's worth noting offense coordinator Kellen Moore has often incorporated a second tight end in his offenses. With Moore running the Chargers offense in 2023, backup tight end Donald Parham Jr. caught 27 passes for 285 yards and four touchdowns. Backup tight ends such as Jake Ferguson (2022) and Blake Jarwin (2019-2021) were active in the red zone during Moore's tenure with the Dallas Cowboys. Calcaterra, who has nine receptions in 30 career games, won't start the season on the fantasy radar, but he could become a top waiver-wire option during the 2024 campaign if Goedert misses any time.
From RotoBaller
