Lineup Prep: Super Bowl
Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Pacheco is playing at high level
Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.
If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.
I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.
On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.
We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.
News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday.
HOT PLAYS
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.
COLD PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.
SLEEPERS
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 7
Dynasty | Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had 116 rushing yards, four catches, 44 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win against Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: Gibbs took advantage of an early David Montgomery injury to post his best game of the season. While Montgomery did return to action, Gibbs carried the mail most of the day and showed just how talented he is. Unfortunately, this is going to be the way it goes with both in Detroit long-term. While it's great two have two premier running backs in reality, it's created a major buzzkill for dynasty managers. Still, Gibbs is a weekly play who can post games like this every week.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 10-of-24 passes for 129 yards, adding 56 rushing yards in a win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: In a game that wasn't exactly the NFL's signature showcase of the year, Richardson failed to throw a touchdown or an interception. He continues to carve out dynasty value with his legs, but also needs to improve dramatically as a passer before anyone believes he can really reach his ceiling. At this point, Richardson still looks like a project and his dynasty value is starting to slip.
Dynasty | Colts rookie receiver Adonai Mitchell had two catches for 30 yards in a win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: In a weird statistical oddity, Mitchell has posted either between 30-39 yards or fewer than ten in each of his seven games this season. Today was one of the better ones, but you can hardly call this a breakout game. Mitchell is in the midst of a very disappointing year and while some of that can be attributed to poor quarterback play, Mitchell is also looking like a player who really needs some work. His dynasty value is starting to decrease and it seems valid at this point.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Jordan Love completed 24-of-33 passes for 220 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in a win against Houston. Dynasty Analysis: Love has had an odd season thus far as he's thrown for 15 touchdowns (good) and eight interceptions (bad) in his five games this year. When you consider Love threw just 11 interceptions last season in 17 games, this is at least a mild concern. While dynasty managers shouldn't panic at this point, a few clean games from Love would certainly put some minds at ease. He remains a dynasty QB1 and solid player to build around at the moment.
Dynasty | Browns running back Nick Chubb had 22 rushing yards, one catch, ten receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Most importantly, Chubb entered and left the game healthy. The Browns are in the midst of a terrible season, sitting at 1-6 and having just likely lost their quarterback for the season. It was great to see Chubb back, but it's also fair to wonder just what he's going to be able to do if the Browns can't do something in the passing game. He'll remain a flex play moving forward, though it was encouraged to see him get 11 of the 16 running back carries.
Dynasty | Bengals running back Chase Brown had 44 rushing yards, two catches and nine receiving yards in a win against the Browns. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Brown had 17 touches and Zack Moss had just nine. This could represent a changing of the guard by the Bengals and while Moss has been pretty steady, Brown clearly looks like the more explosive option. Neither running back is going to be worth more than flex consideration unless the other one gets hurt, but Brown is certainly making some progress and his dynasty arrow is pointing up.
Dynasty | Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman had eight catches for 81 yards in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: With Amari Cooper now in Buffalo, Tillman had a whopping 12 targets on the day, trailing only the 14 from David Njoku. This is notable as Jerry Jeudy had just one catch on five targets today. We'll need to see more from Tillman moving forward but he should most certainly be on dynasty rosters and could have a big second half.
Dynasty | Browns quarterback Jameis Winston completed five-of-11 passes for 67 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Winston came in for mop up duty after the Browns lost both Deshaun Watson (Achilles) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (finger) to injuries. It's certainly notable he was the emergency quarterback behind DTR today as Watson was likely lost for the season. Winston could be in line to start games starting this next week, so he should certainly be on rosters moving forward.
Dynasty | Bills rookie receiver Keon Coleman had four catches for 125 yards in a win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: Coleman came into the game with just 201 receiving yards on the year, so this was by far his best performance. With Amari Cooper commanding attention in a revamped passing game, this was a great sign for the future. Coleman is still a risky play, but he's looking more and more like a player progressing and proving his worth as a late first round rookie pick.
Dynasty | Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper had four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown in his Bills debut. Dynasty Analysis: Yep, that's about what Buffalo needed. With an emerging Keon Coleman (125 yards on the day) and a veteran presence like Cooper, it looks like the Bills may be gearing up for yet another run. Cooper looks like a solid veteran target for dynasty managers, but his touchdown today and potential future in Buffalo is likely going to command a late first round pick to acquire.
Dynasty | Bills running back Ray Davis had 41 rushing yards, one catch, six receiving yards and a touchdown in a win against the Titans. Dynasty Analysis: James Cook was back this week, but Davis still had six touches and made the most of them. With Davis playing this well, it's going to be tough to keep him off the field and give Cook all the opportunities moving forward. He looks like a solid handcuff at worst and should be a highly sought after dynasty asset as a late round rookie pick who has looked the part thus far.
Dynasty | Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley had three catches for 42 yards in a loss against the Bills. Dynasty Analysis: Ridley was talked about a lot this week after being held catchless last week. He had just three grabs this week, but his nine targets led the team by a wide margin. It's fair to wonder just what Ridley is going to be able to do in an offense that simply looks lost, but this was at least a small step in the right direction. Ridley looks like a potential buy low for dynasty managers looking to add a veteran receiver who at least has some upside.
Dynasty | Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf had four catches for 99 yards and a touchdown before exiting with a knee injury in Seattle's road win against Atlanta. Dynasty Analysis: Metcalf had a solid afternoon, but dynasty managers are deeply concerned after he left the sidelines on a cart with what the team later said was a knee injury. For what it's worth, Head Coach Mike Macdonald said at his post-game news conference that it doesn't look too bad and that Metcalf just banged it with another player. We'll see, but any loss of time for Metcalf would open up things for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. Stay tuned.
Dynasty | Falcons running back Bijan Robinson had 103 rushing yards, three catches, 40 receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: The Seahawks defense has been awful over the past month, but this was still a step in the right direction for Robinson. Even better (and more importantly), Robinson had 24 touches and fellow running back Tyler Allgeier had just six. If that kind of timeshare continues, Robinson could post RB1 numbers each and every week. If there was a quick buy low window, it likely just shut.
Dynasty | Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts had seven catches for 65 yards in a home loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Pitts has had a weird season thus far but this was his third straight game with at least 65 receiving yards and he led Atlanta in targets on the day with nine. While the lack of touchdowns (he somehow has just seven in his 50 career games), it at least looks like Atlanta is committing to him each week. With 21 targets over the past three games, the buying window on Pitts has closed and he looks again like a solid TE1 moving forward.
Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 2-of-2 passes for six yards, ran for 50 additional yards, but exited the game early with a rib injury in a win against Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders blew out Carolina in what amounted to a total bludgeoning. The big concern is in relation to Daniels and his health. On the good news front, Daniels did return to the sideline after going to the locker room and while he was in street clothes, Washington had the game in hand and there was no need to risk him. We'll watch the news closely, but this doesn't have the looks of a serious long-term injury.
Dynasty | Panthers tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders had six catches for 61 yards in a blowout loss to Washington. Dynasty Analysis: After starting the season slowly, Sanders now has put together two straight solid performances. While we need to see more from the rookie before recommending him in dynasty lineups, he seems to be coming along nicely and justifying his third round rookie draft pedigree. He seems like a relatively solid hold in dynasty leagues at the moment.
Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 18-of-23 passes for 205 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a win against Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: Mariota added 34 rushing yards on the day to cap off a solid performance. While no threat to Jayden Daniels in the long-term, Mariota proved yet again to be a capable backup in the league. Dynasty managers could certainly consider picking him up should Daniels miss time as Washington suddenly seems like a very capable team.
Dynasty | Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt rushed for 78 yards and two touchdowns in a win against the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: #turnbacktheclock. Hunt was solid for the second game in a row and while he isn't providing many home run plays, he's proven to still have a lot of juice left in the tank. He had 22 carries in this one and ceded only six to the other running backs. At this point, it's clear the Chiefs view Hunt as the lead back on team that doesn't have trouble scoring points. At this point, Hunt looks like a premier target for dynasty contenders looking for a short-term assassin in their dynasty league.
Dynasty | Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy had three catches for 19 yards in the Chiefs win against the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: On the plus side, he did have eight targets to lead the team. Worthy has made some splash plays but just hasn't been able to string together much consistency thus far. While his future is bright, it seems clear he still needs some time to develop. Kansas City keeps losing receivers seemingly each week, so he'll keep getting opportunities. However, we'll need to see more before recommending him in lineups.
