Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Pacheco is playing at high level
Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.
If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.
I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.
On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.
We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.
News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday.
HOT PLAYS
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.
COLD PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.
SLEEPERS
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (back) was not spotted at Friday's practice. That makes a third consecutive absence at training camp due to a back issue for Kamara, who appears all but certain to sit out Sunday's preseason game against the hosting San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Fantasy managers shouldn't be concerned with Kamara's injury at the moment, but it would certainly be encouraging to see him back on the field at some point next week with the regular season quickly approaching. It doesn't help the Saints that there remains no sign of second-year back Kendre Miller (hamstring) at practice. Veteran power back Jamaal Williams makes sense as a bench stash in deep fantasy leagues while New Orleans' backfield remains banged up, and he figures to draw the start on Sunday against San Francisco.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals agreed to terms on a three-year, $16.5 million contract extension with kicker Evan McPherson on Friday, according to his agents. McPherson will earn $10 million in new money in the first year of the deal, the most ever for a three-year kicker extension. The 25-year-old former fifth-round pick in 2021 out of Florida earned his extension by making 83.9% of his 93 field-goal attempts in his first three seasons in the NFL with the Bengals, including going 126-for-132 on his extra points in 49 regular-season games. McPherson went 26-for-31 on field goals and a perfect 40-for-40 on extra points in 17 games for Cincy last year. All five of his missed FGs in 2023 came from over 50 yards out. With quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) back from injury, McPherson should be drafted as a top-12 fantasy kicker in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Rams plan to hold out the same players that missed the preseason opener in Saturday's preseason contest against the Los Angeles Chargers, including wide receiver Cooper Kupp and running back Kyren Williams. Kupp has been healthy this summer during training camp, but head coach Sean McVay isn't taking any chances with the team's key players in the preseason this year. It remains to be seen if the 31-year-old Kupp or other key players will even suit up for the preseason finale next week. Kupp missed the first four games of 2023 with a hamstring injury, so it makes sense as to why the Rams want to rest him this summer. With better health, a bounce-back campaign in 2024 is possible for a player only a couple years removed from a league-high 145 catches, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, but the presence of rising star Puka Nacua won't help Kupp's cause.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles rookie wide receiver Johnny Wilson (head) is in the league's concussion protocol after getting injured in a joint practice on Tuesday and not being able to suit up for the preseason game against the New England Patriots on Thursday night. Wilson will be hoping to get cleared in time for the team's final preseason contest on Aug. 24 against the Minnesota Vikings. The 23-year-old sixth-round selection caught one of his three targets for seven yards in the preseason opener last week against the Baltimore Ravens. Injury aside, Wilson is going to have a tough time finding much of a role in Philly in his first NFL season while being behind A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Parris Campbell on the receiving depth chart.
From RotoBaller
The saga between the San Francisco 49ers and disgruntled wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is reaching a critical point with only 20 days until the start of the 2024 regular season. Things have gone back and forth between the two sides, and at times a trade has seemed imminent. However, general manager John Lynch on Friday said that he understands the "urgency" of the matter involving Aiyuk. "I can tell you, we feel the urgency to have him, the season's approaching, and we have ample time," Lynch also said. The GM wouldn't say what the odds were of Aiyuk staying in San Fran and didn't give a timetable for a final decision. Lynch said there's no animosity between the club and Aiyuk. From a fantasy perspective, Aiyuk's value will be the highest in 2024 as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 if he stays with the Niners. If he cannot reach an extension with San Fran, a trade to the Steelers could be in the works.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo said that "the competition isn't over" for the starting quarterback job in Week 1 of the regular season between veteran Jacoby Brissett and rookie first-rounder Drake Maye. Mayo said that Maye has made strides, but he wants to see the whole operation be faster with Maye running the show. Maye has gone 8-for-14 for 66 yards and a rushing score in two preseason games to this point, while Brissett has gone 3-for-10 for only 17 yards and an interception. It's possible that the 21-year-old rookie will get more reps with the first-team offense in training camp practices before the final preseason contest next week. Brissett is still probably the favorite to start in Week 1, but he's probably not going to be able to hold off Maye for long if he continues to play like he has in the preseason.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen expressed concern when running back Kendre Miller (hamstring) got hurt three weeks ago in training camp about being able to make the team from the training room. Allen said that sentiment hasn't changed at this point, not just with Miller, but any young player who hasn't gotten to show enough for a true evaluation. The 22-year-old former third-round in 2023 has been a disappointment since entering the NFL. The former TCU star also dealt with nagging injuries in his rookie season and played in only eight games, carrying the ball 41 times for 156 yards and one touchdown and catching 10 passes for 117 yards. He's currently third on the RB depth chart behind Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams and could be falling further. Miller is off the fantasy radar for now in single-year leagues.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (calf) did an extensive workout on a side field at training camp on Thursday and appears to be getting close to a return to practice. It's great news for the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick and NFL's reigning rushing leader. McCaffrey is recovering from a calf strain that he suffered earlier this month and is not going to play at all in the preseason as a result. But as long as the 28-year-old All-Pro is on track to be ready for the Week 1 regular-season opener on Monday night against the New York Jets on Sept. 9, he'll remain the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy selection in upcoming drafts. As of right now, the 49ers don't seem worried that CMC will miss the start of the regular season, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on his progress.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (foot) shed his walking boot on Thursday and was working out in the weight room. Herbert had a walking boot on for exactly two weeks while he deals with a plantar-fascia injury in his foot. It's good news that the 26-year-old is out of his boot, but it remains to be seen when he'll actually rejoin his teammates at training camp practices as he prepares for the start of the 2024 season. As long as he doesn't have any setbacks with his foot, it's likely that Herbert will be ready for the Week 1 regular-season matchup against the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. Herbert's fantasy stock was already on the decline before his foot injury with his top targets -- Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams -- all departing in the offseason and with a run-first offense expected under the new coaching staff.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (back) left individual drills on Thursday due to back tightness, which was later confirmed as a back injury, according to Katherine Terrell of ESPN. The rookie lineman was the 14th overall pick this year and is expected to step into a starting role to protect quarterback Derek Carr. His status for the team's next preseason game on Sunday is to be determined. Fuaga looked great in his first preseason game, as he allowed no pressures and received a pass-blocking grade of 77.2 from PFF. Having him healthy heading into the regular season will likely be the team's priority.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (unknown) was not at practice on Thursday night and the reason is still unknown. The star wideout rejoined his teammates on Monday after the birth of his son and has practiced as usual since then. His absence is more than likely a short-term deal but it would be worth monitoring as it remains to be seen if he suits up for a preseason game this year. The quarterback battle continues while Adams' fantasy impact weighs heavily on who wins between Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Trey Sermon (hamstring) continues to battle hamstring issues since suffering the injury during the team's first preseason contest against the Denver Broncos. The fourth-year back has separated himself as the leader for the backup position, but the hamstring issue has opened the door for the next two backs to move up the depth chart. Right now, Tyler Goodson seems to be leading that race with Evan Hull following him. Jonathan Taylor is still the workhorse of the backfield, however, so the fantasy impact of the backup competition will come to fruition if Taylor is hurt and has to miss any action.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte turned four targets into three catches for 23 yards during Thursday's preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. His longest play was a 13-yard reception. Boutte was the Patriots' most productive pass-catcher in the contest, leading the team in receptions and yards while tying for the most targets. The second-year receiver likely isn't going to be a fantasy weapon in 2024, but this performance should still be highlighted as it gives Boutte a stronger chance of making the roster and carving out a role down the stretch.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver Javon Baker was targeted four times during Thursday's preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles, but he finished the contest with just one catch for 12 yards. Even though the rookie's production was limited, fantasy managers should pay most attention to the fact that he tied for the team lead in targets. All four of the passes thrown his way came from rookie Drake Maye, who saw the field in the second and third quarters. Baker is worth a late-round pick in deeper fantasy leagues given that he could still carve out a meaningful role in the Patriots' offense this season.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye completed six of 11 passes for 47 yards during Thursday's preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles. He also showed off some mobility, rushing four times for 15 yards and adding a touchdown on the ground. After an uninspiring performance over a limited sample size last week, Maye earned more opportunities this week and finally showed flashes of a potential starting quarterback. It's still unclear whether he'll start over Jacoby Brissett when the regular season comes around, but this appearance was promising nonetheless. Specifically, fantasy managers can get excited about the fact that the Patriots dialed up a designed run around the goal line for the rookie.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett completed just three of seven passes for 17 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception during Thursday's preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Brissett played the entire first quarter, leading three unsuccessful drives, the middle of which saw the Patriots move close to the goal line before Brissett threw a costly interception in the end zone. This uninspiring outing falls in line with less-than-glowing reports out of Patriots training camp, suggesting that the gap between Brissett and rookie Drake Maye may be shrinking. As of now, Brissett's experience probably still gives him the slight edge for QB1 in New England, but it should be noted that Maye had a very good performance Thursday against Philadelphia.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 18 yards on six carries during Thursday's preseason loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. He was not targeted in the passing game. Stevenson, of course, saw all of his reps come with the first-team offense. Even though he only played in the first quarter, he led the Patriots in touches and rushing yards. Fantasy managers can't (and shouldn't) take too much stock in Stevenson's appearance Thursday, but it does bear mentioning that his quarterback situation is still a bit murky as Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye continue to battle for the starting job. Regardless of which quarterback gets the bulk of the reps in 2024, Stevenson should be heavily involved both on the ground and in the passing attack.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Joseph Ngata caught all five of his targets for 88 yards during the team's 14-13 preseason win over the New England Patriots. The second-year receiver flashed similar skills on occasion last preseason but spent most of his time on the practice squad. There is a fight for the final few receiver spots between Ngata, veteran John Ross, and E.J. Jenkins, but Ross has seen plenty of reps with the second team in practice and has seemed to have the most buzz out of the group this preseason. If Ngata can have another strong outing next week, perhaps he can nab one of the final roster spots. If not, expect the young receiver to latch onto the Philadelphia practice squad.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Will Shipley took five carries for 15 yards and caught all four of his targets for 31 yards during the team's 14-13 win over the New England Patriots. Kenneth Gainwell again got the start Thursday night with the second-team offense but was replaced much earlier this week by Shipley, who saw snaps with No. 2 quarterback Kenny Pickett. The rookie only saw one target last week, but was targeted by both quarterbacks throughout the game and was far more efficient with them than Gainwell. While Shipley may open the season as the No. 3 on the depth chart, he can easily push for passing down snaps and earn more playing time as the season rolls on unless Gainwell can step it up compared to last year. Neither will retain any fantasy relevance in redraft leagues unless Saquon Barkley misses time.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles running back Tyrion Davis-Price took four carries for 28 yards and caught his lone target for no gain during the team's 14-13 win over the New England Patriots. The former San Francisco 49er did well with his touches but did not see playing time until late in the game and seems to be far behind Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley on the depth chart. The Eagles are looking to find their No. 4 back, and rookie Kendall Minton has been staving off Davis-Price for that final spot. The loser will likely land on the practice squad heading into the regular season. It will be interesting to see who gets in the game first during the Eagles' final preseason game against the Minnesota Vikings next Saturday.
From RotoBaller