Draft Day Winners and Losers
Mon Apr 29 11:53am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
White should be lead back
The draft is always so exciting, seeing where all the players get picked. But after the draft, the big issue is figuring out what it all means for their fantasy value. We thought it would be a good idea to look at some of the biggest fantasy winners and losers from draft day. These are some of the players that were picked but also some of the guys that were already on rosters, seeing their fantasy value get impacted from the draft. Adjust your rankings accordingly!
WINNERS
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers. The Panthers did a great job of getting Young some much needed offensive help. The team took a receiver, running back and tight end in three of the first four rounds of the draft. Carolina already added Diontae Johnson this offseason, so the receiver corps should be much better after getting Xavier Legette in the first round. The receivers got very little separation last year, so it was hard to gauge Young. He needed help and got some this offseason. Carolina also took a possible franchise running back in Jonathon Brooks and hopefully a solid starting tight end in Ja’Tavion Sanders. Things are looking up for Young and this offense.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs. Worthy could not have landed in a much better spot. He heads to one of the best offenses in football that has some openings at receiver, especially with the status of Rashee Rice a bit up in the air. Worthy has electric speed and the Chiefs should find plenty of ways to utilize that. He could be the new Tyreek Hill for this offense. Look for Worthy to make an impact right away.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Maybe one of the biggest surprises of the draft was the Cowboys not addressing their running back spot. Instead, the team signed Elliott after the draft. He is likely to be the starter in this top offense. He might not rack up the yards of past seasons, but has big touchdown potential in this offense. Elliott seems a pretty sure bet to get double-digit touchdowns. He could be a solid No. 2 for fantasy teams.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers. Brooks is returning from a major knee injury and could be slowed a little early in the season, but once he is back healthy look for him to the three-down back for the Panthers. He lands in a great spot for playing time, having little top talent to compete with for playing time. Brooks could really get the volume in this offense. He is our top rookie fantasy back.
Zamir White, RB, Raiders. Many thought the Raiders were another team that could address their running back spot during the draft, but that didn’t happen. They used a sixth-round pick on Dylan Laube, but he is not expected to challenge White for that starter’s job. It sure seems the Raiders are comfortable with White as their lead back. He has a chance to get a lot of touches in year two. His stock is going up.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. The Chargers need help at receiver and McConkey helps fill that need. It would not surprise if he quickly became Justin Herbert’s favorite target in the passing game. We really like his chances to rack up the weekly looks in this offense. Someone has to fill the Keenan Allen void and McConkey seems the best bet out of the options at receiver for the Chargers.
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills. Coleman is another rookie receiver that lands in a great spot for playing time. The departure of Stefon Diggs leaves a big opening for the Bills. Coleman could help fill that void. He has great size for the position and could be a top red-zone threat from day one for Buffalo. Coleman should get his chances from the get go, giving him a high ceiling for the coming year.
LOSERS
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins. Mostert had a monster season last year and helped many fantasy teams to championships. He is going to have a very hard time repeating, especially after the Dolphins picked Jaylen Wright in the fourth round. Wright is a speed back similar to Mostert but a lot younger with less wear on his tires. Remember, Mostert is 32 years old. He might end up falling to third on the depth chart after the addition of Wright.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears. Odunze is a super talented player that could be a star in the NFL. But for his year, you have to worry about him being up and down. He has two really good receivers ahead of him on the depth chart in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. This is going to limit the ceiling of Odunze. He will be a much better fantasy player in a few more seasons. For now, expect erratic production from the talented rookie.
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams remains the lead back for the Rams and is coming off a breakout season. But the Rams picked Blake Corum in the third round. He is going to be a factor in the offense. He might get put a huge dent in Williams’ workload but the big concern is the goal-line work. Corum is more of a between the tackles runner that does well on short-yardage work. He could end up stealing some touchdowns from Williams, hurting his fantasy value.
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders. Mayer was a second-round pick for the Raiders last year and showed well at times his rookie season. The Raiders couldn’t pass on the talented Brock Browers in this year’s draft, though. This move absolutely kills the fantasy value of Mayer. He is going to play second fiddle to Browers, getting few weekly looks. Browers is the clear tight end to own in this offense.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers. Pearsall is a talented pass catcher that can get in and out of his breaks in a hurry. He is a really good fit for the slot and could fill that role for the 49ers his rookie season. The problem is he has some of the top talent in all of football to compete with for targets. He could really be up and down his rookie season. He will look better in a year or two when he has a more defined role and less to compete with at receiver. His rookie season could be a tough one to gauge for fantasy owners.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. Many considered Nabers the top receiver in this year’s draft. He is super talented with a high fantasy ceiling. The problem for Nabers is he got drafted by the Giants, a team that really struggled offensively last year. Plus, he has Daniel Jones throwing him passes. This is not a great landing spot for the talented Nabers. Jones needs to make some big strides this season if Nabers hopes to reach his potential. We aren’t sure that happens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 7
Dynasty | Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had 116 rushing yards, four catches, 44 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win against Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: Gibbs took advantage of an early David Montgomery injury to post his best game of the season. While Montgomery did return to action, Gibbs carried the mail most of the day and showed just how talented he is. Unfortunately, this is going to be the way it goes with both in Detroit long-term. While it's great two have two premier running backs in reality, it's created a major buzzkill for dynasty managers. Still, Gibbs is a weekly play who can post games like this every week.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 10-of-24 passes for 129 yards, adding 56 rushing yards in a win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: In a game that wasn't exactly the NFL's signature showcase of the year, Richardson failed to throw a touchdown or an interception. He continues to carve out dynasty value with his legs, but also needs to improve dramatically as a passer before anyone believes he can really reach his ceiling. At this point, Richardson still looks like a project and his dynasty value is starting to slip.
Dynasty | Colts rookie receiver Adonai Mitchell had two catches for 30 yards in a win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: In a weird statistical oddity, Mitchell has posted either between 30-39 yards or fewer than ten in each of his seven games this season. Today was one of the better ones, but you can hardly call this a breakout game. Mitchell is in the midst of a very disappointing year and while some of that can be attributed to poor quarterback play, Mitchell is also looking like a player who really needs some work. His dynasty value is starting to decrease and it seems valid at this point.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Jordan Love completed 24-of-33 passes for 220 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in a win against Houston. Dynasty Analysis: Love has had an odd season thus far as he's thrown for 15 touchdowns (good) and eight interceptions (bad) in his five games this year. When you consider Love threw just 11 interceptions last season in 17 games, this is at least a mild concern. While dynasty managers shouldn't panic at this point, a few clean games from Love would certainly put some minds at ease. He remains a dynasty QB1 and solid player to build around at the moment.
Dynasty | Browns running back Nick Chubb had 22 rushing yards, one catch, ten receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Most importantly, Chubb entered and left the game healthy. The Browns are in the midst of a terrible season, sitting at 1-6 and having just likely lost their quarterback for the season. It was great to see Chubb back, but it's also fair to wonder just what he's going to be able to do if the Browns can't do something in the passing game. He'll remain a flex play moving forward, though it was encouraged to see him get 11 of the 16 running back carries.
Dynasty | Bengals running back Chase Brown had 44 rushing yards, two catches and nine receiving yards in a win against the Browns. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Brown had 17 touches and Zack Moss had just nine. This could represent a changing of the guard by the Bengals and while Moss has been pretty steady, Brown clearly looks like the more explosive option. Neither running back is going to be worth more than flex consideration unless the other one gets hurt, but Brown is certainly making some progress and his dynasty arrow is pointing up.
Dynasty | Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman had eight catches for 81 yards in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: With Amari Cooper now in Buffalo, Tillman had a whopping 12 targets on the day, trailing only the 14 from David Njoku. This is notable as Jerry Jeudy had just one catch on five targets today. We'll need to see more from Tillman moving forward but he should most certainly be on dynasty rosters and could have a big second half.
Dynasty | Browns quarterback Jameis Winston completed five-of-11 passes for 67 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Winston came in for mop up duty after the Browns lost both Deshaun Watson (Achilles) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (finger) to injuries. It's certainly notable he was the emergency quarterback behind DTR today as Watson was likely lost for the season. Winston could be in line to start games starting this next week, so he should certainly be on rosters moving forward.
Dynasty | Bills rookie receiver Keon Coleman had four catches for 125 yards in a win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: Coleman came into the game with just 201 receiving yards on the year, so this was by far his best performance. With Amari Cooper commanding attention in a revamped passing game, this was a great sign for the future. Coleman is still a risky play, but he's looking more and more like a player progressing and proving his worth as a late first round rookie pick.
Dynasty | Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper had four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown in his Bills debut. Dynasty Analysis: Yep, that's about what Buffalo needed. With an emerging Keon Coleman (125 yards on the day) and a veteran presence like Cooper, it looks like the Bills may be gearing up for yet another run. Cooper looks like a solid veteran target for dynasty managers, but his touchdown today and potential future in Buffalo is likely going to command a late first round pick to acquire.
Dynasty | Bills running back Ray Davis had 41 rushing yards, one catch, six receiving yards and a touchdown in a win against the Titans. Dynasty Analysis: James Cook was back this week, but Davis still had six touches and made the most of them. With Davis playing this well, it's going to be tough to keep him off the field and give Cook all the opportunities moving forward. He looks like a solid handcuff at worst and should be a highly sought after dynasty asset as a late round rookie pick who has looked the part thus far.
Dynasty | Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley had three catches for 42 yards in a loss against the Bills. Dynasty Analysis: Ridley was talked about a lot this week after being held catchless last week. He had just three grabs this week, but his nine targets led the team by a wide margin. It's fair to wonder just what Ridley is going to be able to do in an offense that simply looks lost, but this was at least a small step in the right direction. Ridley looks like a potential buy low for dynasty managers looking to add a veteran receiver who at least has some upside.
Dynasty | Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf had four catches for 99 yards and a touchdown before exiting with a knee injury in Seattle's road win against Atlanta. Dynasty Analysis: Metcalf had a solid afternoon, but dynasty managers are deeply concerned after he left the sidelines on a cart with what the team later said was a knee injury. For what it's worth, Head Coach Mike Macdonald said at his post-game news conference that it doesn't look too bad and that Metcalf just banged it with another player. We'll see, but any loss of time for Metcalf would open up things for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. Stay tuned.
Dynasty | Falcons running back Bijan Robinson had 103 rushing yards, three catches, 40 receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: The Seahawks defense has been awful over the past month, but this was still a step in the right direction for Robinson. Even better (and more importantly), Robinson had 24 touches and fellow running back Tyler Allgeier had just six. If that kind of timeshare continues, Robinson could post RB1 numbers each and every week. If there was a quick buy low window, it likely just shut.
Dynasty | Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts had seven catches for 65 yards in a home loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Pitts has had a weird season thus far but this was his third straight game with at least 65 receiving yards and he led Atlanta in targets on the day with nine. While the lack of touchdowns (he somehow has just seven in his 50 career games), it at least looks like Atlanta is committing to him each week. With 21 targets over the past three games, the buying window on Pitts has closed and he looks again like a solid TE1 moving forward.
Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 2-of-2 passes for six yards, ran for 50 additional yards, but exited the game early with a rib injury in a win against Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders blew out Carolina in what amounted to a total bludgeoning. The big concern is in relation to Daniels and his health. On the good news front, Daniels did return to the sideline after going to the locker room and while he was in street clothes, Washington had the game in hand and there was no need to risk him. We'll watch the news closely, but this doesn't have the looks of a serious long-term injury.
Dynasty | Panthers tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders had six catches for 61 yards in a blowout loss to Washington. Dynasty Analysis: After starting the season slowly, Sanders now has put together two straight solid performances. While we need to see more from the rookie before recommending him in dynasty lineups, he seems to be coming along nicely and justifying his third round rookie draft pedigree. He seems like a relatively solid hold in dynasty leagues at the moment.
Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 18-of-23 passes for 205 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a win against Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: Mariota added 34 rushing yards on the day to cap off a solid performance. While no threat to Jayden Daniels in the long-term, Mariota proved yet again to be a capable backup in the league. Dynasty managers could certainly consider picking him up should Daniels miss time as Washington suddenly seems like a very capable team.
Dynasty | Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt rushed for 78 yards and two touchdowns in a win against the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: #turnbacktheclock. Hunt was solid for the second game in a row and while he isn't providing many home run plays, he's proven to still have a lot of juice left in the tank. He had 22 carries in this one and ceded only six to the other running backs. At this point, it's clear the Chiefs view Hunt as the lead back on team that doesn't have trouble scoring points. At this point, Hunt looks like a premier target for dynasty contenders looking for a short-term assassin in their dynasty league.
Dynasty | Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy had three catches for 19 yards in the Chiefs win against the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: On the plus side, he did have eight targets to lead the team. Worthy has made some splash plays but just hasn't been able to string together much consistency thus far. While his future is bright, it seems clear he still needs some time to develop. Kansas City keeps losing receivers seemingly each week, so he'll keep getting opportunities. However, we'll need to see more before recommending him in lineups.
