Draft Day Winners and Losers
Mon Apr 29 11:53am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
White should be lead back
The draft is always so exciting, seeing where all the players get picked. But after the draft, the big issue is figuring out what it all means for their fantasy value. We thought it would be a good idea to look at some of the biggest fantasy winners and losers from draft day. These are some of the players that were picked but also some of the guys that were already on rosters, seeing their fantasy value get impacted from the draft. Adjust your rankings accordingly!
WINNERS
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers. The Panthers did a great job of getting Young some much needed offensive help. The team took a receiver, running back and tight end in three of the first four rounds of the draft. Carolina already added Diontae Johnson this offseason, so the receiver corps should be much better after getting Xavier Legette in the first round. The receivers got very little separation last year, so it was hard to gauge Young. He needed help and got some this offseason. Carolina also took a possible franchise running back in Jonathon Brooks and hopefully a solid starting tight end in Ja’Tavion Sanders. Things are looking up for Young and this offense.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs. Worthy could not have landed in a much better spot. He heads to one of the best offenses in football that has some openings at receiver, especially with the status of Rashee Rice a bit up in the air. Worthy has electric speed and the Chiefs should find plenty of ways to utilize that. He could be the new Tyreek Hill for this offense. Look for Worthy to make an impact right away.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Maybe one of the biggest surprises of the draft was the Cowboys not addressing their running back spot. Instead, the team signed Elliott after the draft. He is likely to be the starter in this top offense. He might not rack up the yards of past seasons, but has big touchdown potential in this offense. Elliott seems a pretty sure bet to get double-digit touchdowns. He could be a solid No. 2 for fantasy teams.
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers. Brooks is returning from a major knee injury and could be slowed a little early in the season, but once he is back healthy look for him to the three-down back for the Panthers. He lands in a great spot for playing time, having little top talent to compete with for playing time. Brooks could really get the volume in this offense. He is our top rookie fantasy back.
Zamir White, RB, Raiders. Many thought the Raiders were another team that could address their running back spot during the draft, but that didn’t happen. They used a sixth-round pick on Dylan Laube, but he is not expected to challenge White for that starter’s job. It sure seems the Raiders are comfortable with White as their lead back. He has a chance to get a lot of touches in year two. His stock is going up.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. The Chargers need help at receiver and McConkey helps fill that need. It would not surprise if he quickly became Justin Herbert’s favorite target in the passing game. We really like his chances to rack up the weekly looks in this offense. Someone has to fill the Keenan Allen void and McConkey seems the best bet out of the options at receiver for the Chargers.
Keon Coleman, WR, Bills. Coleman is another rookie receiver that lands in a great spot for playing time. The departure of Stefon Diggs leaves a big opening for the Bills. Coleman could help fill that void. He has great size for the position and could be a top red-zone threat from day one for Buffalo. Coleman should get his chances from the get go, giving him a high ceiling for the coming year.
LOSERS
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins. Mostert had a monster season last year and helped many fantasy teams to championships. He is going to have a very hard time repeating, especially after the Dolphins picked Jaylen Wright in the fourth round. Wright is a speed back similar to Mostert but a lot younger with less wear on his tires. Remember, Mostert is 32 years old. He might end up falling to third on the depth chart after the addition of Wright.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears. Odunze is a super talented player that could be a star in the NFL. But for his year, you have to worry about him being up and down. He has two really good receivers ahead of him on the depth chart in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. This is going to limit the ceiling of Odunze. He will be a much better fantasy player in a few more seasons. For now, expect erratic production from the talented rookie.
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams remains the lead back for the Rams and is coming off a breakout season. But the Rams picked Blake Corum in the third round. He is going to be a factor in the offense. He might get put a huge dent in Williams’ workload but the big concern is the goal-line work. Corum is more of a between the tackles runner that does well on short-yardage work. He could end up stealing some touchdowns from Williams, hurting his fantasy value.
Michael Mayer, TE, Raiders. Mayer was a second-round pick for the Raiders last year and showed well at times his rookie season. The Raiders couldn’t pass on the talented Brock Browers in this year’s draft, though. This move absolutely kills the fantasy value of Mayer. He is going to play second fiddle to Browers, getting few weekly looks. Browers is the clear tight end to own in this offense.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers. Pearsall is a talented pass catcher that can get in and out of his breaks in a hurry. He is a really good fit for the slot and could fill that role for the 49ers his rookie season. The problem is he has some of the top talent in all of football to compete with for targets. He could really be up and down his rookie season. He will look better in a year or two when he has a more defined role and less to compete with at receiver. His rookie season could be a tough one to gauge for fantasy owners.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. Many considered Nabers the top receiver in this year’s draft. He is super talented with a high fantasy ceiling. The problem for Nabers is he got drafted by the Giants, a team that really struggled offensively last year. Plus, he has Daniel Jones throwing him passes. This is not a great landing spot for the talented Nabers. Jones needs to make some big strides this season if Nabers hopes to reach his potential. We aren’t sure that happens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 6
Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers that have used him as a streamer at the position -- he's currently tied with Chris Boswell for the sixth-most fantasy points at kicker through five weeks -- but he won't be a recommended streamer in Week 6 versus the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers. Sunday's game figures to be a low-scoring, ground-and-pound battle on both sides, with the Chargers defense allowing a league-low 12.5 points per game and Denver's D right behind at 14.6 points allowed per game. The Bolts also allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the kicking position. Combine that with a Denver offense that is scoring fewer than 20 points per game through five contests, and it doesn't seem likely that Lutz will have many kicking opportunities to capitalize on. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere in Week 6.
From RotoBaller
With Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds (finger) sidelined in Week 6 against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers, rookie wideout Troy Franklin should see additional opportunities in the passing attack, albeit in a less-than-favorable matchup. The fourth-rounder from Oregon hasn't played more than 31% of the offensive snaps in any of the first four NFL games he's played in, but that could change this Sunday. He also has only five catches on 12 targets for 29 yards and dropped what would have been his first career touchdown in the Week 5 win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. Even though Franklin could serve as the team's WR3 against the Chargers, he won't be a realistic starting option in fantasy in what has been a low-volume, inefficient offense. The Chargers defense has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR points per game to pass-catchers through five weeks as well.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is a borderline starter this week, benefiting from a favorable matchup against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. Last week, Kmet had a decent outing for a tight end, recording three catches for 57 yards. While his snap rate has increased, his production has declined since his Week 3 breakout. With only seven targets over his last two games, it's tough to feel confident about Kmet's upside. However, given the ongoing challenges at the tight end position in 2024, he can still be a viable spot starter in this favorable matchup.
From RotoBaller
The Chicago Bears defense and special teams want to continue their strong early-season performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Bears come into the game with a defense on track to finish in the top five in scoring for the first time since 2019. They'll face former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, who has struggled in 2024 compared to his usual standards. In Week 5, Lawrence completed 82.4% of his passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, but his overall season has been lackluster. Start the Bears' defense with confidence this week, as they will likely create turnovers against Lawrence and the underperforming Jaguars offense.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos is a reliable fantasy option for Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He had a mixed performance in his Week 5 matchup against the Carolina Panthers, successfully converting his only field goal attempt from 30 yards but missing one of four extra-point attempts. Santos will likely see plenty of action again this week in London, as the Bears are expected to move the ball effectively against a struggling Jaguars defense.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds (finger) has been ruled out for Week 6 against the Los Angeles Chargers, which will lead to more involvement for receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey. In the Week 5 win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders, he played the second-most snaps of Denver's receivers and caught both of his targets for 48 yards. Despite the opportunity, we aren't recommending Humphrey to fantasy managers against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year. The 26-year-old does have impressive yards-after-the-catch abilities with the ball in his hands, but he's just not very exciting in what has been a low-scoring offense led by a rookie quarterback, especially in a tough matchup. Humphrey has 12 catches for 135 yards and no scores through five games in 2024 and should be left on the waiver wire in standard-sized, 12-team leagues.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson is poised to capitalize on his increased workload from last week as he faces the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6. Last week, he enjoyed his best fantasy performance of the season, rushing ten times for 25 yards and scoring two touchdowns. Since Week 4, Johnson has found the end zone three times, having taken over the goal-line rushing duties for the Bears. If the Bears can establish a lead, Johnson could see additional goal-line opportunities against a struggling Jaguars defense, similar to his performance against the Panthers. Johnson is a worthwhile dart throw for those in need, given his secure role in the Bears' offense.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is a solid WR2 choice this week against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. Coming off his best game of the season in Week 5, where he recorded five catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns, Moore looks poised for another strong performance. The Jaguars surrendered 291 total yards and two touchdowns to the Indianapolis Colts' receivers in Week 5, and they have allowed the second-most receiving yards to wideouts this season. Given his recent breakout, Moore is a must-start in this favorable matchup. Add him to your lineup and hope for another standout showing.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen is looking to rebound this Sunday in Chicago against a notably weak Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. After a quiet performance last week, where he recorded just three receptions for 33 yards, Allen is hoping for a more impactful outing in Week 6. The Jaguars recently allowed 291 total yards and two touchdowns to the Colts' wide receivers, and they have given up the second-most receiving yards to opponents this season. Allen has been anticipating his breakout game with the Bears, and this matchup presents a great opportunity. While it's reasonable to start Allen if needed, it would be preferable to see him deliver a standout performance before fully committing him to your lineup.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton will have a low fantasy ceiling and floor for a Week 6 matchup against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6. After going for three catches, 60 yards and his first touchdown of the year in the Week 4 win over the New York Jets, Sutton had a quiet two catches for 32 yards in last week's win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. He's currently the WR53 in half-PPR scoring and has gone into double-digit fantasy points (half PPR) just twice in five contests. On top of it, the Chargers defense has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR points per game (19.0) to the receiver position through five weeks (four games). The only thing good Sutton has going for him is his 26.3% target share; he currently ranks tied for 12th among wideouts with 41 total targets. But he's caught only 17 of those targets for 224 yards and a touchdown and should be considered a touchdown-dependent WR4/flex in lineups this Sunday against what has been a lockdown defense so far.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze is poised for a bounce-back performance this Sunday against a vulnerable Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. Last week, he had a quieter outing by his standards, catching five passes for 40 yards against the Carolina Panthers. However, he has a great opportunity to rebound against the Jaguars, who recently allowed 291 total yards and two touchdowns to the Colts' wide receivers in Week 5. The Jaguars have also given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts this season. Although it's a high-risk play, Odunze has the potential to deliver big numbers against a weak secondary, as he demonstrated against the Colts. If you're dealing with injuries or bye weeks, consider starting Odunze as a borderline flex option in this favorable matchup.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin has very little fantasy upside heading into a Week 6 matchup against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers, a defense that has been stingy against the run in 2024. McLaughlin enters Sunday's game in Denver as the RB45 in half-PPR scoring as the backup to Javonte Williams in one of the lower-scoring offenses in the NFL. The 24-year-old has managed to find the end zone twice (one rushing, one receiving) in five games while averaging a weak 3.3 yards per carry on 33 rushing attempts. The potential addition of rookie Audric Estime (ankle) to the backfield this weekend is also bad news for McLaughlin moving forward. He's just not getting enough weekly touches to matter much in fantasy and hasn't been efficient at all with the touches he's been afforded. McLaughlin is only rostered in 19% of Yahoo leagues is an RB4/flex, at best, in deeper leagues.
From RotoBaller
This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams presents a high-risk, high-reward option as he goes up against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars. In Week 5, Williams completed 20 of 29 passes for 304 yards and two touchdowns, managing to avoid turnovers. This performance marks the second time he has surpassed 300 passing yards in three weeks, and it was his third straight week without an interception. After his standout game, he now faces the Jaguars, who allow an NFL-high 287.7 passing yards per game, providing Williams with an enticing opportunity. However, he'll have to contend with talented pass rushers like Travon Walker, who leads the team with five sacksincluding three in Week 5and Josh Hines-Allen, who has two sacks so far this season. The Jaguars have struggled to generate a pass rush and have yet to record an interception this year. This matchup sets the stage for Williams to excel, making him a strong candidate as a borderline QB1 in London.
From RotoBaller
The Chicago Bears' running back, D'Andre Swift, is a solid borderline RB2 for Sunday's matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which presents a favorable opportunity. Last week, he delivered one of his best performances of the season, tallying 21 carries for 73 yards, a touchdown, and two receptions for 47 yards. Swift has hit his stride over the past two weeks, with rushing totals of 93 and 73 yards, scoring a touchdown in each game and adding a combined 114 receiving yards. However, a concern for Swift owners is that he has lost the goal-line role to Roschon Johnson, who vultured two touchdowns last week. It wouldn't be surprising to see Johnson receive more opportunities again this week, given a potentially similar game script. Start Swift confidently in this favorable matchup, but be aware that Johnson could limit his upside.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams had his best fantasy output of the season in the Week 5 win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders with 13.6 half-PPR points, but don't be surprised if he regresses this Sunday against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers. The Bolts D has allowed 94 rushing yards per game (sixth fewest) and 16.4 half-PPR points to RBs (seventh-fewest) so far in 2024 and are coming off their bye week. Williams has been more productive running the football in the last two weeks, but on the season as a whole, he's averaged a career-low-tying 3.6 yards per carry. The good news is that he's still Denver's clear lead back over Jaleel McLaughlin, but rookie Audric Estime (ankle) could enter the picture this weekend and complicate things down the road. Williams has had double-digit carries in three of five games in 2024, but the efficiency has been lacking in a weak offense. Consider him a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in Week 6.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix should be treated as a low-end QB2 in fantasy in a Week 6 divisional matchup at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are coming off their bye week. Nix threw for a measly 60 yards in the Week 4 upset win over the New York Jets but was more efficient in last week's win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders, throwing for 206 yards and two touchdowns. The 24-year-old has shown improvement during the team's current three-game winning streak with a 3:0 TD-to-interception ratio, but he averaged just 5.48 yards gained per pass attempt during that span and will be facing a Bolts defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs through five weeks. Nix doesn't exactly have excellent weapons on offense to take the pressure off of him and enters Week 6 tied with Trevor Lawrence in overall fantasy points as the QB17.
From RotoBaller
The New Orleans Saints D/ST can be avoided in Week 6 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What started out as a unit that exceeded expectations in the first three weeks of the season has since petered out. In Weeks 1 through 3, the Saints averaged 3.6 sacks and 2.3 takeaways per game. Over their last two games, those figures dropped to 1.5 and 1.0, respectively. Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield has been on a heater to start the season and has 11 touchdowns to two interceptions coming into the NFC South matchup. While he has been sacked 16 times already this season, Tampa's offensive line showed a massive improvement in Week 5, allowing just three pressures (including one sack) against the Falcons. Even if the Saints are able to get to Mayfield, the Buccaneers' offense is scoring 25.4 points per game and is a top-five team in preventing turnovers. Fantasy managers in need of a D/ST should shop the wire for a unit with a better matchup in Week 6.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson has been a reliable target this season, posting 32 receptions for 230 yards and two touchdowns on 47 targets. In Week 5's win against Seattle, Robinson had six catches for 36 yards and a touchdown, stepping up with Malik Nabers sidelined. Heading into a Week 6 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, Robinson faces a defense that ranks 18th against the pass, allowing 214 passing yards per game and 10 receiving touchdowns. Given the injury to Nabers, Robinson's high target volume, and the Bengals' vulnerability to short-yardage receivers, Robinson is a solid PPR option, making him a strong flex play this week.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints kicker Blake Grupe went without a field goal attempt for the first time this season in Week 5 against the Kansas City Chiefs. Grupe went 1-for-2 on extra point attempts in the game, making it his second missed point through the first five weeks of the season. Grupe's sophomore season started with a bang as he hit four field goals (including two 50-yarders) in Week 1 and benefited from the Saints' early offensive explosion by knocking home 10 extra points over their first two games. However, Grupe has not reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 1, and there's no reason to believe he is due for a big turnout in Week 6. The expected point total for the NFC South matchup against the Buccaneers is a mere 42 points, which is among the lowest on Sunday's slate. Grupe is not a bad option, per se, but fantasy managers can probably find a more promising option elsewhere.
From RotoBaller
Expectations for New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave will have to be tempered in Week 6 with Derek Carr (oblique) lost to injury. Carr's fill-in, rookie Spencer Rattler, offered some reassurance in comments to the media after being named the starter when he stated his intent to feed Olave the ball. That would be a welcome change from Week 5, when Olave was targeted four times, making two catches for a season-low 10 receiving yards, his worst game since his two-catch, 11-yard performance in Week 1. In the three weeks between, Olave gave fantasy managers more of what they were hoping for when they drafted him, catching 18 of his 22 targets in that span and racking up at least 81 yards in each game. There is no denying Olave's talent but his success is still contingent on how Rattler performs in his professional debut. Fantasy managers should also be aware that Tampa's heavy utilization of zone coverages favors Rashid Shaheed (hip) more than it does Olave. Olave rates as a risky WR3 in Week 6 given the situation in New Orleans.
From RotoBaller
