QB Strength of Schedule
Thu May 23 11:12am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Prescott setup for big success
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the quarterback position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the quarterbacks with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the quarterbacks that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| QB SOS | ||
| 1. | Miami Dolphins | 313.6 |
| 2. | Cincinnati Bengals | 314.77 |
| 3. | Los Angeles Chargers | 317.32 |
| 4. | Denver Broncos | 317.38 |
| 5. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 320.33 |
| 6. | Houston Texans | 320.74 |
| 7. | Buffalo Bills | 321.01 |
| 8. | Philadelphia Eagles | 323.71 |
| 9. | Kansas City Chiefs | 325.08 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 325.12 |
| 11. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 326.4 |
| 12. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 328.45 |
| 13. | New York Jets | 329.06 |
| 14. | New England Patriots | 329.64 |
| 15. | Cleveland Browns | 330.31 |
| 16. | Los Angeles Rams | 330.72 |
| 17. | Arizona Cardinals | 331.54 |
| 18. | Indianapolis Colts | 331.69 |
| 19. | Seattle Seahawks | 332 |
| 20. | Atlanta Falcons | 332.73 |
| 21. | Baltimore Ravens | 333.05 |
| 22. | San Francisco 49ers | 333.05 |
| 23. | Detroit Lions | 334.13 |
| 24. | Las Vegas Raiders | 334.38 |
| 25. | New York Giants | 334.72 |
| 26. | New Orleans Saints | 336.27 |
| 27. | Minnesota Vikings | 337.2 |
| 28. | Dallas Cowboys | 339.64 |
| 29. | Chicago Bears | 340.70 |
| 30. | Tennessee Titans | 343.69 |
| 31. | Carolina Panthers | 345.54 |
| 32. | Green Bay Packers | 349.53 |
The Packers have the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks. Jordan Love already had a breakout season last year and could take his game to an even higher level this season. Love is shaping up to be a really intriguing QB1 this season. He is a player on the rise and seems setup for even more success this year.
A couple second-year quarterbacks have really favorable schedules, Will Levis and Bryce Young. Both seem like good No. 2 fantasy quarterbacks to take a chance. Their teams did well in upgrading the talent around them this offseason and a favorable schedule bodes well for them to take some steps forward this year.
Caleb Williams was the No.1 overall pick and the Bears gave him plenty of firepower to work with in year one. Williams has a lot of good going for him this year and could be the C.J. Stroud of this year’s rookie class. And having a favorable fantasy schedule helps Williams even more.
A couple veterans with favorable schedules are Dak Prescott and Derek Carr. Prescott is the one that stands out the most. The Cowboys are lacking top options at the running back spot, so it would not surprise if the Cowboys are really pass-heavy offensively. Prescott could really rack up the numbers this year.
There are some big-name quarterbacks on the opposite side of things, having very tough fantasy schedules. Tua Tagovalioa has the toughest schedule of all. He struggled a little down the stretch last year and now has the most unfavorable schedule for any fantasy quarterback. This is a little concerning.
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and whoever is starting in Pittsburgh, likely Russell Wilson, are other veteran quarterbacks that have a top-five unfavorable schedule for fantasy quarterbacks. Burrow is not a huge concern for us because we think they will still have success throwing the ball and he has a ton of talent around him at receiver. Herbert is a concern. The Chargers lost their top two receivers and could be a lot more run-heavy with a new coach in place. Herbert has some red flags for him this coming year, making him a bit of a risky pick for fantasy teams. Wilson is another veteran with a tough schedule. He also has Justin Fields pushing him to play, so Wilson is going to be a boom or bust fantasy pick.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy quarterbacks. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the quarterbacks with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| QB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 292.02 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 299.33 |
| 3. | New York Giants | 301.93 |
| 4. | Miami Dolphins | 307.48 |
| 5. | Los Angeles Rams | 308.45 |
| 6. | Detroit Lions | 312.4 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 313.15 |
| 8. | Kansas City Chiefs | 313.45 |
| 9. | Buffalo Bills | 313.6 |
| 10. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 317.53 |
| 11. | Cincinnati Bengals | 318.03 |
| 12. | Baltimore Ravens | 318.25 |
| 13. | Green Bay Packers | 322.48 |
| 14. | Indianapolis Colts | 322.83 |
| 15. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 328.78 |
| 16. | Philadelphia Eagles | 331.23 |
| 17. | Cleveland Browns | 331.95 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 334.68 |
| 19. | Atlanta Falcons | 336.18 |
| 20. | Carolina Panthers | 338.62 |
| 21. | Seattle Seahawks | 338.65 |
| 22. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.18 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 341.22 |
| 24. | New York Jets | 344.3 |
| 25. | New Orleans Saints | 346.68 |
| 26. | Chicago Bears | 347.07 |
| 27. | Tennessee Titans | 348.42 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 355.23 |
| 29. | Denver Broncos | 355.35 |
| 30. | Dallas Cowboys | 359.62 |
| 31. | Washington Commanders | 359.92 |
| 32. | San Francisco 49ers | 363.47 |
There is just a team that makes both the top-five favorable quarterback schedule for the regular season and playoffs. That team is the Cowboys. So Dak Prescott has the third easiest playoff schedule in addition to having the fifth easiest regular season schedule. Prescott was a player looking pretty good even before seeing these schedules, so you might want to bump him up a few spots in your rankings after seeing this. Prescott could be a league winner in 2024.
The 49ers actually have the easiest fantasy quarterback schedule for the playoffs. So Brock Purdy could have a great run during the fantasy playoffs. He always has a high weekly ceiling, so things are looking great for him this postseason.
Now some rookie quarterbacks round out the team of having top-five fantasy quarterback playoff schedules. Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Drake Maye are all likely starting for their teams later in the season, so they should help fantasy teams during the playoffs. They all have some question marks surrounding them but could be worth the gamble, especially if you have a dependable starter already on your roster. These rookies could make some noise late in the season.
On the opposite side of things, the Dolphins are the only team to have both a top-five unfavorable fantasy quarterback schedule for the regular season and playoffs. We already had a few concerns for Tagovalioa even before these schedules were released. And now seeing he has very challenging schedules for both the regular season and playoffs make him a player you might want to avoid come draft day.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have the toughest schedule for the playoffs. Lawrence has not lived up to expectations to date. He could have his best season to date this year, but his schedule during the playoffs is concerning. Lawrence could struggle when it matters most.
C.J. Stroud is the biggest name of any quarterback with a top-five unfavorable playoff schedule. We aren’t too concerned about this because some players can rise above the challenge. Stroud is one of those players. Things will be tougher for him in year two, but he will also progress and get better. Plus, he has Stefon Diggs added to the mix, which should improve that passing game even more.
Daniel Jones is another quarterback with a challenging playoff schedule. He is another fringe draft pick to begin with, so seeing him possibly have struggles down the stretch causes more trepidation when it comes to possibly drafting him. He might be another player to just steer clear of come draft day.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 2
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert led the team in targets during Sunday's 44-19 loss to the New Orleans Saints. He caught six passes for 82 yards, including an impressive 39-yard reception. The 25-year-old averaged 9.1 yards per target and 13.7 yards per reception during Sunday's loss. As the Cowboys continue their search for a consistent No. 2 option behind CeeDee Lamb, Tolbert made a strong case for the role with his Week 2 performance. Currently rostered in just 4% of fantasy leagues, Tolbert could be a valuable waiver wire target, especially in deeper leagues next week. Tolbert will look to build on Sunday's performance in the Week 3 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin had seemingly no issues against the Detroit Lions in Week 2. Last week, Godwin finished with eight receptions for 83 yards and he was able to top that here. On Sunday, Godwin snagged seven of his eight targets for 117 yards and a touchdown in the win. It seems that moving Godwin back to the slot has really worked out for the Bucs offense. Normally, Godwin takes a backseat to fellow wideout Mike Evans, but not this week. It seems like Godwin and Mayfield have great chemistry and hopefully this continues going forward. Godwin has been excellent through the first two weeks and he should be a strong WR2 versus the Denver Broncos next week.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans was unable to carry his Week 1 success into Sunday's game against the Detroit Lions. The veteran wideout finished with 61 yards and two touchdowns in the season opener. However, he was only able to haul in three receptions for 42 yards in the Week 2 win over the Detroit Lions. Evans and quarterback Baker Mayfield weren't on the same page here as Evans only hauled in half of his targets. Fellow wideout Chris Godwin had a much better performance with over 100 yards on Sunday. Evans should be fine and remain on the WR1 radar for a favorable matchup against the Denver Broncos next week.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey had two catches for 26 yards in the Chargers blowout win against the Panthers. Dynasty Analysis: Los Angeles got more than enough from JK Dobbins and Quentin Johnston in this one as McConkey was held in check. There should be better days ahead but McConkey willl need to string a few good games together to maintain his role after Johnston had a two-touchdown day and led the team in targets. McConkey's dynasty value is intact but he'll be a tough start moving forward.
Dynasty | Panthers receiver Diontae Johnson had just three catches for 15 yards in the Panthers blowout loss to the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Johnson now has just five catches for 34 scoreless yards in his first two games in Carolina. It's hardly his fault as Bryce Young has done virtually nothing so far this season. At this point, Johnson is going to be a "must-sit" until we see something from an offense that looks as bad as any we've seen in years to start this season.
Dynasty | 49ers running back Jordan Mason had 100 yards rushing and a touchdown in San Francisco's surprising loss at Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: He added one catch for four yards. While Mason is hardly the same caliber of receiver Christian McCaffrey is, the offense seems very well-suited for his rushing style. His weekly ceiling may be capped moving forward if he doesn't get more targets. However, Mason has proven to be good enough to be a weekly starter, whether that's as a RB1 or RB2 moving forward.
Dynasty | Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold completed 17-of-26 passes for 268 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the Vikings win against San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: Darnold has had a dream start to the year as he's led Minnesota to 51 points and two wins to start the season. While Darnold isn't putting up video game numbers, he's making solid decisions and taking care of the football. Today's game was extremely promising as he held strong against one of the league's toughest defenses. He could have had an even bigger game had Aaron Jones not fumbled a "would be" touchdown in the second half at the goal line. Darnold is going to be in consideration in Superflex leagues moving forward and should be rostered everywhere.
Dynasty | Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson had four catches for 133 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota's win over the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: Jefferson's day was highlighted by a 97-yard touchdown reception from a rejuvenated Sam Darnold. The bigger story could be the fact Jefferson left the game late with a quad injury. We'll wait and see just what the extent of the injury is but it's also clear Jefferson can maintain his WR1 status this year with or without Kirk Cousins after the second big day from Darnold.
Dynasty | Vikings running back Ty Chandler had 82 yards on just ten carries in the Vikings win over San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Chandler had ten carries and Aaron Jones had nine. While this is just one game, it seems Minnesota may be heading more towards a time-share at this point between the two running backs. Chandler is a must-own in dynasty leagues as we monitor his touches very closely over the next couple of weeks.
Dynasty | Browns running back D'Onta Foreman had 42 yards on 14 carries in Cleveland's win over Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Foreman's 15 touches (he had one catch for nine yards) were more than the eight of Jerome Ford. Quite honestly, neither running back was very impressive on the day and the fact both were used this much may indeed make them unplayable going forward as the Cleveland offense has looked pretty inept so far this season. We'll continue to monitor the situation but neither back is going to be a recommended play until one or the other truly emerges.
Dynasty | Jags rookie Brian Thomas had two catches for 94 yards in Jacksonville's loss against Cleveland. Dynasty Analysis: Thomas only had four targets on the day but made the most of them with a 66-yard catch. Trevor Lawrence seems to be spreading the ball around a lot but Thomas also looks like the most explosive receiver on the team. While he should remain on benches, Thomas has looked the part thus far in his rookie season and his potential seems to have justified his lofty rookie draft ranking thus far.
Dynasty | Raiders tight end Brock Bowers had nine catches for 98 yards in the Raiders win over the Ravens. Dynasty Analysis: Bowers has done nothing to make anyone believe he's not the future at the position in dynasty leagues thus far after posting a whopping 15 catches in his first two games. While dynasty owners may be frustrating at him not finding the end zone yet, that's just a case of greed. Bowers is here to stay and looks like a "set it and forget it" option already in his young career.
Dynasty | Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely had just two catches for 26 yards in Baltimore's loss to Las Vegas. Dynasty Analysis: This isn't a huge surprise as Baltimore's passing offense still runs through Zay Flowers and they tend to run the ball as much as possible. Still, this is a clear letdown after last week's massive explosion. The simple fact is the Ravens now have two very capable tight ends as Mark Andrews (4/51/0) and Likely are making a duo that looks great in reality but frustrating in dynasty leagues. Likely's ascension up the rankings will halt after this one and he's going to be a tough start moving forward until we see another solid outing.
Dynasty | Jayden Daniels completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards, while adding 44 rushing yards in the Commanders win over the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: Daniels wasn't able to produce any touchdowns on the day but one thing is very clear after two weeks - Daniels has the "it" factor. Routinely making something out of nothing, Daniels simply willed the team to a win, his first as a starter in the NFL. There are going to be some better days statistically moving forward but it seems Washington has truly found their quarterback of the future. The buying window on Daniels is creeping shut.
Dynasty | Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers had ten catches for 127 yards and a touchdown in the Giants loss against Washington. Dynasty Analysis: Even more impressive, Nabers had a whopping 18 (!) of the 28 targets from Daniel Jones. While this target share is impossible to maintain, it's clear going to Nabers is the best bet for the Giants to have any success on offense this season and they're making every effort to give him the ball. His status as the #2 rookie is cemented and he's a must-start, top-15 receiver moving forward this season.
Dynasty | Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 12 catches for 117 yards in Seattle's road win over New England. Dynasty Analysis: JSN was held in check last week but today was a different story as Geno Smith looked his way a whopping 16 times. Smith-Njigba looks to be taking over the WR2 spot from Tyler Lockett this season and could be well on his way to a second year breakout. The dynasty arrow is clearly pointing up for JSN and he's going to be a solid WR3 moving forward.
Dynasty | Patriots rookie Ja'Lynn Polk had two catches for 12 yards and his first career touchdown in a loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Polk scored and that's the good news. The bad news is he now has just three catches for 18 yards on the season. This is simply an indictment on an offense that has done next to nothing to start the year and is simply going as far as running back Rhamondre Stevenson can take them. Polk's dynasty value is safe but he needs to remain on dynasty benches for the time being.
Dynasty | Jets rookie running back Braelon Allen had 33 rushing yards, two catches, 23 receiving yards and two touchdown in New York's win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: The bad news is Allen was still out-touched 21-9 by Breece Hall. There is no running back controversy here as Hall is the unquestioned bellcow for the Jets. However, it's clear Allen has talent and if Hall was to ever miss time, Allen could be in line for a RB1 stretch. Allen remains a solid hold in dynasty leagues moving forward and a solid low-cost trade target for forward-thinking managers.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 17-of-34 passes for 204 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in a loss against Green Bay. Dynasty Analysis: One of the interceptions was on a last second hail mary, so that can hardly count against him. Still, Richardson wasn't sharp and his fantasy day couldn't be salvaged, even with his 37 rushing yards. There is work to do here and while Richardson seems healthy, we need to see more consistency before making him a lineup lock moving forward - such is life in the NFL for young quarterbacks.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Malik Willis completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in a win against Indianapolis. Dynasty Analysis: Willis also added 41 rushing yards on the day. The game plan for Green Bay is clear with Willis under center - they're going to run the ball with Josh Jacobs and have Willis manage football games. While that may seem like a buzzkill for dynasty managers, Willis looked surprisingly in control all day and while nobody is going to forget about Jordan Love, the trade Green Bay made for him looks like a genius move at this point. Willis belongs on dynasty rosters.
