RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 9
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram is the last healthy receiving option heading into Sunday's matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles. Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis are questionable along with running backs Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby. Christian Kirk was ruled out for the rest of the season after last week's game, making Engram essentially the last man standing. Since returning from injury in Week 6, Engram has amassed 19 receptions and 173 yards, with most of that coming against the Chicago Bears. Engram should be more involved this week against the Eagles, making him an even better starting fantasy option as a tight end than usual. Engram is a clear TE1 option in Week 9, especially in PPR leagues given his potential for a huge target share.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has a banged-up receiving core, making it hard to trust him in a difficult matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles. Darius Slay is out for the Eagles, which could mean the secondary is weaker than usual. However, with Christian Kirk out for the season and Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis potentially out, the only certain reliable option for Lawrence this week is Evan Engram. Even Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby out of the backfield are questionable. The former top pick is coming off a 308-yard performance against the Green Bay Packers, but it is hard to imagine Lawrence improving on that performance with the surrounding uncertainty. Lawrence can be viewed as a solid QB2 with potential for more if all his weapons play in Week 9.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys edge-rusher Micah Parsons (ankle) and defensive back DaRon Bland (foot) have both been ruled out for the team's Week 9 road tilt against the Atlanta Falcons. It's no surprise, as both athletes logged three DNPs ahead of Sunday's outing. Parsons hasn't appeared in a game since sustaining an ankle injury ahead of the team's Week 5 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, while Bland hasn't appeared in any action all season. Dallas did move the cornerback to their 53-man roster this past Wednesday, so it would seem they intend to activate him soon. However, they'll go at least one more week down two key defensive contributors.
From RotoBaller
Per Ian Rapoport, after talking to multiple sources, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (knee) "should be ok moving forward" and reportedly has a chance to suit up for Week 9. Despite being listed as questionable after recording a DNP to close out the week, head coach Sean McVay has not ruled Nacua out for the team's divisional clash against the Seattle Seahawks. It's excellent news for the Rams and fantasy managers, as this most recent flare-up has afflicted the same knee that forced the 23-year-old to miss the prior five weeks. While nothing is set in stone for Sunday's matchup, it doesn't appear to be another long-term issue for the young superstar wideout. Keep an eye on his status over the next 36 hours.
From RotoBaller
According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (groin) expects to play on Sunday when the team hosts their division-rival Detroit Lions. Per Rapoport, there have been no setbacks in Love's recovery from a groin injury he suffered in Week 8, and barring something unforeseen, he's tracking to play in the pivotal Week 9 matchup. It's excellent news for the Pack, who, at 6-2, can take control of the NFC North with a win over their 6-1 rivals. Fantasy managers will still want to monitor Love's status ahead of Sunday, as even if the 26-year-old plays, Green Bay could lean on running back Josh Jacobs a smidge more than usual.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (quad) participated fully in the team's Friday practice. The 29-year-old was listed as limited on Thursday, so it's nice to see him able to log a full session just one day later. It's excellent news for Kansas City, as the veteran's quad ailment is the second injury to limit him in back-to-back weeks (hip). So long as Hunt does not suffer any setbacks over the next 24 hours, it would appear he's well on his way to making another start in Week 9 when the team hosts the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The veteran RB has been on a tear, punching in at least one score in three straight contests while out-carrying backfield mate Carson Steele 70-to-13 over that stretch.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions kicker Jake Bates heads into Week 9 against the Green Bay Packers with a reliable fantasy floor, thanks largely to Detroit's high-powered offense. Bates has only attempted 11 field goals across seven games but remains a strong option due to his consistent extra-point volume, converting 27 of 28 PATs this season. With 22 extra points over his last four games alone, he benefits from Detroit's frequent scoring opportunities, even though head coach Dan Campbell's aggressive play-calling on fourth downs sometimes limits his field goal chances. Bates has scored at least eight fantasy points in five of seven games, including three double-digit outings. As the Lions enter Week 9 with a projected team total of 25, Bates is well-positioned to deliver another solid fantasy performance.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta heads into Week 9 against the Green Bay Packers with an expanded role due to Jameson Williams' suspension (PED violation). LaPorta is coming off a strong Week 8 performance, turning six targets into six catches for 48 yards and a touchdown. The Packers' defense has struggled against tight ends, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to the position, which sets up a favorable matchup for LaPorta. Across his last three games, he's averaged 125 receiving yards with two touchdowns. With the Packers ranking high in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, LaPorta remains a dependable TE1 option with the potential for another productive outing.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Kalif Raymond heads into Week 9 against the Green Bay Packers as a potential deep-league fantasy option, with Jameson Williams suspended for one more game (PED violation). Raymond showcased his big-play ability last week, scoring both on a punt return and a receiving touchdown. Competing for targets with other Lions' receivers, he's proven capable of capitalizing on limited opportunities, making him a possible flex option in deeper leagues. The Packers' defense has shown inconsistencies, allowing 12 different players to score a touchdown this season, though no player has managed multiple scores in a single game. Raymond's explosiveness could make him a surprise contributor against Green Bay's vulnerable secondary.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) was again listed as a non-participant at the team's Friday practice. The veteran wideout has been tagged as a DNP for the fifth-straight session as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury he sustained in Kansas City's Week 7 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. With the Chiefs set to host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football, Smith-Schuster will have one more chance to elevate his practice participation ahead of Week 9. The last time he played a full game, the 27-year-old had a massive seven-catch, 130-yard performance in Week 5. However, with DeAndre Hopkins now in the fold, his target share becomes less apparent. If the former USC Trojan again can't suit up, wide receivers Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, Hopkins, and Mecole Hardman will handle the team's wide-receiver duties.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Jordan Whittington (shoulder) is listed as questionable for the team's road tilt against the Seattle Seahawks. The rookie wideout was held out of LA's Week 8 matchup after picking up a shoulder injury the week prior in their 20-15 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. Whittington was able to log a week of limited sessions ahead of Week 9, though his status is still uncertain for the outing. With fellow wideout Puka Nacua (knee) also questionable for Sunday, it could be wide receivers Cooper Kupp, Tutu Atwell, and Demarcus Robinson shouldering most of the pass-catching duties in the divisional clash.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown will remain a top starting option in Week 9 against the Green Bay Packers. Though he had a quiet Week 8 with just two catches for seven yards, St. Brown extended his touchdown streak to five games. With Jameson Williams out due to PED violation suspension, St. Brown may see even more increased opportunities in an offense that spreads the ball but leans on him as a reliable target. Green Bay's defense ranks 19th in passing yards allowed per game, making this matchup one St. Brown could exploit. Over his last five games, he's recorded 276 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 27 receptions, showcasing his WR1 potential even with variable volume. St. Brown is a must-start with strong touchdown potential against the Packers' secondary.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs offers intriguing upside in Week 9 as he faces the Green Bay Packers. Gibbs showcased his big-play ability last week with a 70-yard touchdown run, extending his streak of at least one 20-yard rush to six games. In his last three games, Gibbs has totaled 306 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 38 carries, along with 78 receiving yards on eight catches. While Green Bay ranks 10th in rushing yards allowed per game, Gibbs' versatility as a dual-threat player makes him a valuable fantasy option. His role may be limited to around 15 touches, but the Lions' high-scoring offense, averaging 43 points in recent games, keeps his RB1 upside intact. Treat Gibbs as a low-end RB1 with big-play potential for Week 9.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin is coming off one of the best games of his season and should be viewed as a low-end WR1 in a divisional tilt against the New York Giants this weekend. Last week, McLaurin posted a season-high 125 yards on just five receptions in their victory over the Chicago Bears. Since totaling just 39 yards across the first two weeks, the Ohio State product has gone on to average 90.0 receiving yards per game with four total scores in his past six games. With how well Jayden Daniels has performed, McLaurin should be locked into all lineups facing the Giants, who have allowed the 15th-most PPR points to opposing wideouts this season.
From RotoBaller
The Indianapolis Colts will start Joe Flacco under center in Week 9 versus the Vikings. The 39-year-old started three games for the Colts in Weeks 4 through 6, tossing at least two touchdown passes in each of the games, totaling 716 yards with a 7:1 TD:INT. While the Vikings are tough against the run, they can be beaten through the air, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to QBs on the season, with the last four signal-callers who faced them faring even better, averaging 298 yards passing and three TDs. In a game with a 46.5 over/under and the Colts as five-point underdogs though, it doesn't foretell of a high-scoring game for the Colts, so while Flacco is a massive upgrade over Anthony Richardson, he still looks like a low-end QB2 for fantasy this week with some slight upside.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Noah Brown remains a high-risk flex option heading into Week 9 when he faces the New York Giants. Despite caching the game-winning Hail Mary pass last weekend, Brown has struggled to find consistency while serving as the No.2 wideout. While Brown has tallied at least 50 yards in three games, he has fallen under 30 yards in the other three he has played in. For now, fantasy managers in deeper 3WR formats should continue to stash Brown, as he may emerge as a consistent option in this passing attack during the second half. This weekend, he remains a high-risk flex option facing the Giants, who have allowed the 15th-most PPR points to opposing WRs.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz has emerged as the No.2 option for Jayden Daniels and should continue to be viewed as a solid TE1 in all formats in Week 9. Since Week 5, Ertz has seen at least five targets in each game, with a season-high of 11 coming last weekend in their victory over the Chicago Bears. During this span, Ertz has scored double-digit PPR points in all but one game. Without a reliable No.2 wideout, fantasy managers should expect Ertz to continue seeing reliable targets weekly. Even though the New York Giants have allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points to opposing TEs, he remains a solid tight end in all formats due to his safe volume.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery remains a solid RB2 option heading into Week 9, taking on a Green Bay Packers defense that ranks 10th in rushing yards allowed per game. Currently ranking as RB11 in fantasy points per game, Montgomery has been dependable, averaging over 15 touches and 79 total yards per game. His consistent red zone usage has helped him score in all but one game this season, showing his role in crucial scoring moments. Although Green Bay's defense has shown improvement against the run, they allow the third-most yards after contact per carry, which plays into Montgomery's strength. Over the past five games, Montgomery has amassed 289 rushing yards and five touchdowns, plus 101 receiving yards. With the Lions' offense generating plenty of scoring chances, Montgomery should retain his value with notable touchdown potential.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders kicker Austin Seibert has enjoyed an excellent start to his time in Washington and should continue to be viewed as a high-end kicking option in Week 9. Since joining the Commanders in Week 2, Seibert has averaged 12.6 fantasy points per game. During this stretch, Seibert has gone perfect on all attempts from within 49 yards and on extra points. In addition, he has attempted at least two field goals in all but one game this season. Given how potent the Washington offense has looked under Jayden Daniels. Seibert remains a matchup-proof option going forward.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels should continue to be viewed as a high-end QB1 heading into Week 9 when he faces the New York Giants. Last weekend, the LSU standout was a game-time decision with a rib injury but was able to suit up and lead the Commanders to a thrilling victory. In this game, Daniels threw for a season-high 326 yards and a score that was capped off by a game-winning Hail Mary pass to Noah Brown. This week, he was a limited participant in practice but does not carry an injury designation into the weekend. Fantasy managers should feel confident putting Daniels in their lineup as the Giants have allowed the 20th-most points to opposing QBs this season.
From RotoBaller
