RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 7
Dynasty | Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had 116 rushing yards, four catches, 44 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a win against Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: Gibbs took advantage of an early David Montgomery injury to post his best game of the season. While Montgomery did return to action, Gibbs carried the mail most of the day and showed just how talented he is. Unfortunately, this is going to be the way it goes with both in Detroit long-term. While it's great two have two premier running backs in reality, it's created a major buzzkill for dynasty managers. Still, Gibbs is a weekly play who can post games like this every week.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 10-of-24 passes for 129 yards, adding 56 rushing yards in a win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: In a game that wasn't exactly the NFL's signature showcase of the year, Richardson failed to throw a touchdown or an interception. He continues to carve out dynasty value with his legs, but also needs to improve dramatically as a passer before anyone believes he can really reach his ceiling. At this point, Richardson still looks like a project and his dynasty value is starting to slip.
Dynasty | Colts rookie receiver Adonai Mitchell had two catches for 30 yards in a win against Miami. Dynasty Analysis: In a weird statistical oddity, Mitchell has posted either between 30-39 yards or fewer than ten in each of his seven games this season. Today was one of the better ones, but you can hardly call this a breakout game. Mitchell is in the midst of a very disappointing year and while some of that can be attributed to poor quarterback play, Mitchell is also looking like a player who really needs some work. His dynasty value is starting to decrease and it seems valid at this point.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Jordan Love completed 24-of-33 passes for 220 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in a win against Houston. Dynasty Analysis: Love has had an odd season thus far as he's thrown for 15 touchdowns (good) and eight interceptions (bad) in his five games this year. When you consider Love threw just 11 interceptions last season in 17 games, this is at least a mild concern. While dynasty managers shouldn't panic at this point, a few clean games from Love would certainly put some minds at ease. He remains a dynasty QB1 and solid player to build around at the moment.
Dynasty | Browns running back Nick Chubb had 22 rushing yards, one catch, ten receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Most importantly, Chubb entered and left the game healthy. The Browns are in the midst of a terrible season, sitting at 1-6 and having just likely lost their quarterback for the season. It was great to see Chubb back, but it's also fair to wonder just what he's going to be able to do if the Browns can't do something in the passing game. He'll remain a flex play moving forward, though it was encouraged to see him get 11 of the 16 running back carries.
Dynasty | Bengals running back Chase Brown had 44 rushing yards, two catches and nine receiving yards in a win against the Browns. Dynasty Analysis: More importantly, Brown had 17 touches and Zack Moss had just nine. This could represent a changing of the guard by the Bengals and while Moss has been pretty steady, Brown clearly looks like the more explosive option. Neither running back is going to be worth more than flex consideration unless the other one gets hurt, but Brown is certainly making some progress and his dynasty arrow is pointing up.
Dynasty | Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman had eight catches for 81 yards in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: With Amari Cooper now in Buffalo, Tillman had a whopping 12 targets on the day, trailing only the 14 from David Njoku. This is notable as Jerry Jeudy had just one catch on five targets today. We'll need to see more from Tillman moving forward but he should most certainly be on dynasty rosters and could have a big second half.
Dynasty | Browns quarterback Jameis Winston completed five-of-11 passes for 67 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in a loss to the Bengals. Dynasty Analysis: Winston came in for mop up duty after the Browns lost both Deshaun Watson (Achilles) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (finger) to injuries. It's certainly notable he was the emergency quarterback behind DTR today as Watson was likely lost for the season. Winston could be in line to start games starting this next week, so he should certainly be on rosters moving forward.
Dynasty | Bills rookie receiver Keon Coleman had four catches for 125 yards in a win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: Coleman came into the game with just 201 receiving yards on the year, so this was by far his best performance. With Amari Cooper commanding attention in a revamped passing game, this was a great sign for the future. Coleman is still a risky play, but he's looking more and more like a player progressing and proving his worth as a late first round rookie pick.
Dynasty | Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper had four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown in his Bills debut. Dynasty Analysis: Yep, that's about what Buffalo needed. With an emerging Keon Coleman (125 yards on the day) and a veteran presence like Cooper, it looks like the Bills may be gearing up for yet another run. Cooper looks like a solid veteran target for dynasty managers, but his touchdown today and potential future in Buffalo is likely going to command a late first round pick to acquire.
Dynasty | Bills running back Ray Davis had 41 rushing yards, one catch, six receiving yards and a touchdown in a win against the Titans. Dynasty Analysis: James Cook was back this week, but Davis still had six touches and made the most of them. With Davis playing this well, it's going to be tough to keep him off the field and give Cook all the opportunities moving forward. He looks like a solid handcuff at worst and should be a highly sought after dynasty asset as a late round rookie pick who has looked the part thus far.
Dynasty | Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley had three catches for 42 yards in a loss against the Bills. Dynasty Analysis: Ridley was talked about a lot this week after being held catchless last week. He had just three grabs this week, but his nine targets led the team by a wide margin. It's fair to wonder just what Ridley is going to be able to do in an offense that simply looks lost, but this was at least a small step in the right direction. Ridley looks like a potential buy low for dynasty managers looking to add a veteran receiver who at least has some upside.
Dynasty | Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf had four catches for 99 yards and a touchdown before exiting with a knee injury in Seattle's road win against Atlanta. Dynasty Analysis: Metcalf had a solid afternoon, but dynasty managers are deeply concerned after he left the sidelines on a cart with what the team later said was a knee injury. For what it's worth, Head Coach Mike Macdonald said at his post-game news conference that it doesn't look too bad and that Metcalf just banged it with another player. We'll see, but any loss of time for Metcalf would open up things for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. Stay tuned.
Dynasty | Falcons running back Bijan Robinson had 103 rushing yards, three catches, 40 receiving yards and a touchdown in a loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: The Seahawks defense has been awful over the past month, but this was still a step in the right direction for Robinson. Even better (and more importantly), Robinson had 24 touches and fellow running back Tyler Allgeier had just six. If that kind of timeshare continues, Robinson could post RB1 numbers each and every week. If there was a quick buy low window, it likely just shut.
Dynasty | Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts had seven catches for 65 yards in a home loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Pitts has had a weird season thus far but this was his third straight game with at least 65 receiving yards and he led Atlanta in targets on the day with nine. While the lack of touchdowns (he somehow has just seven in his 50 career games), it at least looks like Atlanta is committing to him each week. With 21 targets over the past three games, the buying window on Pitts has closed and he looks again like a solid TE1 moving forward.
Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 2-of-2 passes for six yards, ran for 50 additional yards, but exited the game early with a rib injury in a win against Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders blew out Carolina in what amounted to a total bludgeoning. The big concern is in relation to Daniels and his health. On the good news front, Daniels did return to the sideline after going to the locker room and while he was in street clothes, Washington had the game in hand and there was no need to risk him. We'll watch the news closely, but this doesn't have the looks of a serious long-term injury.
Dynasty | Panthers tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders had six catches for 61 yards in a blowout loss to Washington. Dynasty Analysis: After starting the season slowly, Sanders now has put together two straight solid performances. While we need to see more from the rookie before recommending him in dynasty lineups, he seems to be coming along nicely and justifying his third round rookie draft pedigree. He seems like a relatively solid hold in dynasty leagues at the moment.
Dynasty | Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 18-of-23 passes for 205 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a win against Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: Mariota added 34 rushing yards on the day to cap off a solid performance. While no threat to Jayden Daniels in the long-term, Mariota proved yet again to be a capable backup in the league. Dynasty managers could certainly consider picking him up should Daniels miss time as Washington suddenly seems like a very capable team.
Dynasty | Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt rushed for 78 yards and two touchdowns in a win against the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: #turnbacktheclock. Hunt was solid for the second game in a row and while he isn't providing many home run plays, he's proven to still have a lot of juice left in the tank. He had 22 carries in this one and ceded only six to the other running backs. At this point, it's clear the Chiefs view Hunt as the lead back on team that doesn't have trouble scoring points. At this point, Hunt looks like a premier target for dynasty contenders looking for a short-term assassin in their dynasty league.
Dynasty | Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy had three catches for 19 yards in the Chiefs win against the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: On the plus side, he did have eight targets to lead the team. Worthy has made some splash plays but just hasn't been able to string together much consistency thus far. While his future is bright, it seems clear he still needs some time to develop. Kansas City keeps losing receivers seemingly each week, so he'll keep getting opportunities. However, we'll need to see more before recommending him in lineups.
