RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
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The Washington Commanders released wide receiver Martavis Bryant on Tuesday despite the fact that he scored a touchdown in the preseason finale over the weekend. Bryant was with the Dallas Cowboys earlier this offseason as he attempts to get back into the NFL, but he now hits the open market again. The 32-year-old pass-catcher could land with another team before the start of the 2024 regular season, but it remains a long shot that he'll find a meaningful role this year. The former fourth-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2014 out of Clemson hasn't appeared in the NFL since 2018 with the Raiders, when he caught 19 passes for 266 yards and no touchdowns in eight games (two starts). There's also a chance that Bryant will stick around in Washington and join the team's practice squad to open the year.
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The Denver Broncos waived wide receiver Brandon Johnson on Tuesday, according to a source. In addition to Johnson, the Broncos also parted ways with Tim Patrick, who quickly signed with the Detroit Lions, Lil'Jordan Humphrey and David Sills to trim their roster down to 53 by the deadline. Johnson improved in Year 2 with Denver last year by catching 19 of his 30 targets for 284 yards and four touchdowns in 13 games (two starts), but he wasn't able to make the final cut this summer after the offseason additions of Josh Reynolds and rookie fourth-rounder Troy Franklin. The 26-year-old rejoin the Broncos practice squad to give the team additional depth during the regular season, though. Johnson joined Denver as an undrafted free agent out of Central Florida in 2022.
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The Minnesota Vikings are moving on from running back/kick returner Kene Nwangwu, according to a source. The Vikings are expected to cut or trade him by Tuesday's deadline. With Nwangwu and Myles Gaskin out of the picture in Minnesota, the Vikings only have running backs Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler in the RB room, alongside fullback C.J. Ham. The former fourth-round pick in 2021 out of Iowa State has plenty of speed, so at the very least, he should get another opportunity elsewhere as a kick returner on special teams in 2024. The 26-year-old had a career-low five carries for just 13 yards in nine games with the Vikings last year. Nwangwu has been more useful as a returner on special teams than as an offensive asset, as he's totaled just 88 rushing yards and no touchdowns on 27 career carries for a weak 3.3 yards per tote in 37 total games (zero starts).
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The Pittsburgh Steelers are signing running back Boston Scott to their practice squad. Scott was released by the Los Angeles Rams earlier this week. He brings veteran experience to the Steelers after having spent his first six seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles. Scott lost a lot of his touches to D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell in 2023. He only ran the ball 20 times for 86 yards and zero touchdowns in 15 games. The Steelers only have running backs Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren (hamstring), and Cordarrelle Patterson listed on their depth chart. With Warren not 100%, Scott may have a chance to be elevated to the active roster at some point. Either way, this move is likely to be inconsequential for fantasy football.
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Dynasty | The Jaguars have waived quarterback CJ Beathard. Dynasty Analysis: Beathard gets an injury settlement and Jones gets to be Trevor Lawrence's backup. This was a close battle but a late preseason injury to Beathard pretty much sealed the deal. Jones will now look to continue his development behind Lawrence and hope for a shot as a starter again elsewhere. The former first rounder is a tough hold on a dynasty roster, however.
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Dynasty | The Chiefs have released wide receiver Kadarius Toney. Dynasty Analysis: The Chiefs really tried to make it work with Toney but he's proven to be more trouble than he's worth. There's really no doubting the talent here but Toney has also proven to be unreliable both on and off the field. Someone will certainly take a shot at him in the coming days, making him still a hold in deep dynasty leagues until we see the smoke clear.
Dynasty | The Commanders have released running back Chris Rodriguez. Dynasty Analysis: Rodriguez had some nice moments last year but was caught up in a numbers game after Washington traded for Austin Ekeler. With much of the "deep sleeper" bloom off the rose now with his release, it's going to be tough for dynasty managers to hold on to Rodriguez.
Dynasty | The Chiefs have cut wide receiver Justyn Ross. Dynasty Analysis: Ross was a major prospect at Clemson prior to a late-career injury. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to show that same ability at the NFL level and the Chiefs are throwing in the towel after a couple of seasons. Ross has tape good enough to garner some interest, however, so he should at least stay on some dynasty watch lists at the moment.
Dynasty | The 49ers have released wide receiver Robbie Chosen. Dynasty Analysis: The Chosen one will not be suiting up for the 49ers after all. With Brandon Aiyuk likely staying (at least at the moment), San Francisco didn't have a need for the speedster. After spending time with the Panthers, Jets, Cardinals, Dolphins and now the 49ers, it's fair to wonder if this may be the last we see of him. He's not worth a dynasty roster spot, unless you're in a league that rewards for multiple in-season name changes.
Dynasty | Packers running back AJ Dillon has been placed on season-ending IR. Dynasty Analysis: Wow. The Packers brought him back this year to back up Josh Jacobs and it seems he's not going to be recovered enough from last year's neck injury to do that. MarShawn Lloyd may have the inside track to back him up but Jacobs is in line for a monster workload. As for Dillon, this is going to be a tough time to justify keeping him on a dynasty roster.
The Minnesota Vikings released tight end Robert Tonyan on Tuesday. The Vikings have plenty of tight end depth, with superstar T.J. Hockenson (knee) on the PUP list and Josh Oliver, one of the best backups in the NFL. The 29-year-old spent the first five seasons of his career with the Green Bay Packers before playing with the Chicago Bears in 2023. In 2020 he had by far the best season of his career, with 586 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Tonyan, who has only ever played for NFC North teams, has put together a couple of productive seasons and shown that he has plenty of talent. Tonyan will look to latch onto another team but is off the fantasy radar for now in 2024.
From RotoBaller
