Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson (toe) was upgraded to a full practice on Friday and was subsequently removed from the final injury report for Week 1 on Sunday at Soldier Field against the visiting Tennessee Titans. Johnson began the week on Wednesday with a limited practice and followed suit on Thursday before being a full-go on Friday. The 23-year-old missed valuable reps in training camp and the preseason with his toe injury, but he's ready for the start of the regular season and should be left on fantasy benches in the vast majority of leagues in Week 1. To open the 2024 campaign, Johnson is lined up as Chicago's RB3 behind D'Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert. The former fourth-rounder last year out of Texas, Johnson played in 15 games (zero starts) and compiled 352 yards on 81 carries (4.3 yards per tote) while scoring two TDs on the ground. He added 34 catches for 209 yards.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears defensive lineman Montez Sweat (toe) was a full participant in practice on Friday but is still considered questionable to play in the Week 1 regular-season opener this Sunday at Soldier Field against the Tennessee Titans. Sweat was limited in practices on both Wednesday and Thursday. After practicing in full on Friday, it would be a surprise if the 28-year-old pass-rusher was inactive on Sunday, but fantasy managers in IDP leagues will need to have a backup plan in place. If Sweat is active, he should be in starting lineups at the defensive-line position against a new offense being led by second-year quarterback Will Levis, who is entering his first full year as the starter under center. Even if Sweat sits the opener out, Chicago's defense/special teams unit should be considered a top-five unit in fantasy lineups.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (hamstring) was a full participant in practice on Friday for the second day in a row and is not included on the final injury report for the Week 1 regular-season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. There was some panic about Pitts' status this week when he was limited on the first official injury report back on Wednesday, but that concern is now gone and he'll suit up this weekend. The 23-year-old former first-rounder had high expectations coming into the NFL as fourth overall pick in 2021 out of Florida. He responded immediately with a 1,000-yard season in his rookie year, but it came with just one touchdown. Pitts underwhelmed the last two years, but he also hasn't worked with great QBs. Many folks are expecting his fourth season to be his best in 2024 now that QB Kirk Cousins is leading the offense. Pitts should be locked into fantasy lineups in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is questionable to play against the New England Patriots due to ongoing contract disputes. Speaking to reporters after practice, Chase said he'd play without his sought-after extension but he feels a deal is close. Coach Zac Taylor said "We'll see" in regards to his star receiver suiting up. Chase sat out of training camp and admitted that he'll be limited if he is active on Sunday. The Bengals' number two receiver, Tee Higgins, is listed as doubtful after tweaking his hamstring in practice. A lack of top options could spell trouble for Joe Burrow's Week 1 projections, but it will mean more opportunities for WR Andrei Iosivas and TE Mike Gesicki. Chase is still a WR1 if he's active but fantasy managers should temper expectations.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Antonio Gibson (hip) said his hip responded well during Friday's practice session, and he's optimistic he'll be ready to go for the Week 1 regular-season opener this Sunday versus the Cincinnati Bengals, barring an unexpected turn of events. Gibson was added to the injury report on Thursday and was limited in practice with his hip injury. The 26-year-old could be questionable on Friday's final injury report, but Gibson appears to be on the right side of questionable right now. If he's active for his Patriots debut, Gibson will be the backup to starter Rhamondre Stevenson in an offense that isn't expected to be very dynamic while being run by either QB Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye. Gibson should be on fantasy benches if he's active in Week 1, while JaMycal Hasty could rise to a backup role behind Stevenson if Gibson is held out.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring) is officially listed as doubtful for the team's season opener on Sunday. Higgins tweaked his hamstring during Thursday's practice and missed practice on Friday, despite saying he felt "amazing" on Thursday. Higgins has a lengthy history of hamstring issues and it now appears that he'll miss his first game of 2024. Fellow wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is listed as questionable due to ongoing contract disputes. Andrei Iosivas is in line for more playing time and could be the team's de-facto top wide receiver against the Patriots if Higgins and Chase don't suit up.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (ankle) is no longer on the team's injury report and is cleared to suit up against the New York Giants on Sunday. The second-year wideout was carted off the practice field in mid-August with a high-ankle sprain but returned to practice in full on Friday. After taking advantage of Justin Jefferson's extended absence in 2023 (70 catches for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns), Addison's production is expected to take a dip in 2024 with Sam Darnold quarterbacking the team. Addison should be viewed as a boom/bust WR4 against the Giants.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (calf) is hopeful about his chances of playing against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1. Speaking to reporters after participating in practice, Wilson said he's taking his injury day by day and he wants to play on Sunday if he's available. The calf issue has been bothering the veteran quarterback throughout training camp and any aggravation or setback this close to the season doesn't bode well. The Steelers didn't rule Wilson out on Sunday. However, beat reporters who cover the Steelers seem to believe the team is inching closer to starting Justin Fields against the Falcons. Fields would be a fantasy football upgrade at quarterback, but a downgrade for the pass catchers in the offense.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen (heel) is questionable ahead of the team's matchup against the Tennessee Titans. In what was initially described as a cleat issue by GM Ryan Poles, the veteran receiver was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. His status was upgraded to a full participant on Friday. While officially listed as questionable, Allen appears to be trending in the right direction to make his debut as a Chicago Bear. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Chicago passing game, but top wide receiver DJ Moore may get shadowed by star cornerback L'Jarius Sneed on Sunday. That could open up more opportunities for Allen. He's a low-end WR3 for the matchup against the Titans.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers running back Miles Sanders (finger) is not carrying an injury designation into the team's divisional matchup against the New Orleans Saints. While limited in practice earlier in the week, Sanders practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. Although rookie Jonathon Brooks (knee) is on the PUP list and will miss four games, there still isn't a fantasy-worthy role for Sanders on the Panthers. He'll be the direct backup to Chuba Hubbard on a low-powered offense. The former Eagle averaged a career-low 3.3 yards per carry in his first season in Carolina in 2023.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers and tight end Pat Freiermuth have agreed to a four-year, $48.4 million contract extension. The 25-year-old secured 60+ receptions in his first two professional seasons before his production declined in 2023. Still, there's optimism surrounding the former Penn State Nittany Lion in 2024. With an unproven wide receiver corps behind George Pickens and Arthur Smith's utilization of tight ends, Freiermuth could be the team's second-leading target earner. However, Smith does also tend to deploy multiple tight ends. Freiermuth is ranked right on the TE1/2 line against the Atlanta Falcons.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans kicker Nick Folk will start the season in Chicago taking on the Bears in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. Folk was the #19 kicker last year but the ranking wasn't emblematic of his effectiveness. It was a career-year for the 39-year old veteran, who finished first in the NFL with a 96.7% conversion rate. The Titans have a completely revamped offense which should score more than 17.9 points per game (26th overall), meaning Folk will have many more opportunities to score fantasy points. However, Chicago has one of the best defenses in the league and is playing on their home turf in Week 1. With the Titans offense still unproven, Folk is probably better left on waivers for opening weekend.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers have ruled out tight ends Tommy Tremble (hamstring, back) and Ian Thomas (calf) for the team's season opener against the New Orleans Saints. Both players did not participate in any practices this week. Rookie fourth-round pick Ja'Tavion Sanders is now in line to start in his NFL debut. Converted veteran wide receiver Jordan Matthews and Messiah Swinson will back up the rookie. Bryce Young and the Carolina offense aren't expected to pick up a lot of yards through the air. Sanders should only be rostered in Dynasty formats.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears takes on the stout Chicago Bears defense in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. Spears played second-fiddle to future Hall-of-Famer Derrick Henry last season who bolted for the Ravens in free agency. Even with Henry receiving the lion's share of the work, Spears was able to snag 52 passes, tied for ninth among RBs in 2023. Tony Pollard came over from the Cowboys on a fairly lucrative deal, but Spears should still have a major role in this new-look versatile offense. The Bears in return basically all of their stud defensive line from a unit that ranked #1 in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. It will be very tough to run on this front, but with Spears' passing game chops he should see enough work to warrant deeper league flex value, with a slight upgrade in full-PPR formats.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard heads to Chicago to face the Bears on NFL opening weekend. Pollard came to Nashville by way of Dallas on a 3-year, $21.75M deal this offseason after an underwhelming year as the Cowboys lead back. He now takes over a Titans backfield that is without superstar workhorse Derrick Henry, but retains the shifty Tyjae Spears who flashed quite a bit last season and should get a sizable workload. Titans Offensive Coordinator Nick Holz recently said the backfield will likely be a 50/50 split which brings Pollard's value down some, but he should still be the 1A to Spears' 1B in the backfield at least to begin the year. Week 1 will be anything but easy traveling to the Chicago and their #1 rushing defense from last year, which should be elite once again in 2024. Consider him a low-end flex for Week 1.
From RotoBaller
The Tennessee Titans have officially ruled out safety Jamal Adams (hip) for Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Week 1. The writing was on the wall for Adams to be out for the season opener when he missed his second straight practice on Thursday. The 28-year-old oft-injured defensive back apparently wasn't able to get back on the field on Friday. Adams missed most of training camp this summer due to soreness in his hip and will need more time to get ready for the 2024 campaign. He's no longer on the fantasy radar in IDP leagues as a backup safety for the Titans this year. With Adams ruled out against Chicago, expect rookie Julius Wood to operate as the team's backup strong safety this weekend behind Amani Hooker.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley heads into a Week 1 matchup against the Chicago Bears on Sunday. The veteran wideout revitalized his career last season in Jacksonville with over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns, helping him secure a large payday from the Titans this spring. With DeAndre Hopkins now 32 and in his last year of his contract, Ridley figures to be the WR1 for this offense captained by sophomore quarterback Will Levis. Week 1 presents one of the toughest matchups all year with the Chicago Bears and their formidable secondary led by lockdown corner Jaylon Johnson, who also just signed a massive extension in the offseason. The good news for Ridley owners is that Hopkins is likely to see more of the All-Pro in coverage, meaning the former Alabama star should have his fair share of chances to exploit this defense. Ridley checks in as a low-mid tier WR2 for Week 1 of the NFL season.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo takes on the Chicago Bears in an NFL opening weekend matchup. The former fourth-round pick was a popular breakout candidate last season, and while that didn't pan out due to the ineffectiveness of Ryan Tannehill at QB, Okonkwo was much more productive when Levis took over as the starting quarterback. There's some post-hype sleeper vibes around Okonkwo heading into year three, but he is still at best the fourth target in this offense behind Ridley, Hopkins, and Pollard/Spears at the moment. With the Bears ranking middle-of-the-pack against tight ends last season and Okonkwo near the bottom of the pass-catching pecking order, he's better left on fantasy benches in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
The Tennessee Titans defense will face 2024 #1 pick Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears in Week 1. This unit was at or below average in most statistical categories last season leading to a #26 finish among fantasy defenses. The Titans signed some big names for their secondary including star cornerbacks L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, as well as veterans Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams. This should immediately give them a borderline top-10 secondary and help force more turnovers through the air. DT Denico Autry is gone along with his 11.5 sacks, but Jeffrey Simmons and Harold Landry are back in the mix along with 2024 second-round pick T'Vondre Sweat who should be an impact run-stopper. Chicago presents a stiff test with two elite receivers in Keenan Allen and DJ Moore, along with 2024 #9 overall pick Rome Odunze to form one of the best receiving corps in the league. QB1 Caleb Williams hasn't played a regular season snap yet, but he has all the tools to succeed sooner rather than later. Throw in D'Andre Swift and you have countless weapons on offense, which should prompt fantasy managers to leave this unit on waivers for Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis travels to Chicago to take on Caleb Williams and the Bears in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The Kentucky product started eight games last season due to the inept play of Ryan Tannehill and showed major flashes throughout his short stint as the lead signal caller in Nashville, all while dealing with a horrible offensive line. With revamped protection and receiver core that now features Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, Levis has a huge opportunity in front of him to prove that he is "the guy" for this franchise, and it starts with a tough test on the road against Chicago in Week 1. The Bears ranked in the top half of the league last season in total yards allowed, but most of that was bolstered by their #1 rushing defense. Stopping opposing quarterbacks was not their strong suit, but they did add former Titan / All-Pro safety Kevin Byard in the offseason, which should give that unit a major boost. While Chicago gave up considerable yardage total through the air, they actually led the NFL with 22 interceptions last season. Because Levis is still mostly unproven and has a tough road test against a stout defense, he should only be started in deeper superflex formats.
From RotoBaller