Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Cameron Heyward signed a three-year, $45 million contract extension on Tuesday. Heyward is one of the Steelers' best defensive players. Keeping Heyward happy is extremely important to their success. He will help to anchor the Steelers D/ST in fantasy football in 2024. Additionally, Heyward and the rest of the Steelers' defense will help take pressure off the offense and allow an easier path to success for wide receiver George Pickens and running backs Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers restructured the contract of wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. on Tuesday. The move created $16.4 million in cap space. The restructure comes as no surprise given the recent contracts the 49ers handed to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and offensive tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers are in win-now mode and are preparing to compete for a Super Bowl. Restructuring Samuel was necessary to ensure they could continue building out their roster in the short term. However, the move will not affect Samuel's ability to produce in 2024. Samuel recorded 892 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in 2023. He added 225 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground. If Samuel stays healthy, expect him to produce those types of numbers once again in 2024.
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New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll is set to call offensive plays in 2024. Daboll had relinquished the job to offensive coordinator Mike Kafka when he was hired as head coach in 2022. This could be good news for Malik Nabers managers. Daboll cut his teeth calling plays as the offensive coordinator for quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Daboll was the author of high-powered offenses in Buffalo. Those offenses featured fantasy excellence from Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Giants do not have much in the way of offensive weapons. Expect Daboll to call Nabers' number early and often.
From RotoBaller
Free agent wide receiver Kadarius Toney visited the Seattle Seahawks on Tuesday. The Chiefs released Toney during roster cuts after he struggled with injuries and drops during his Chiefs tenure. The 25-year-old caught 27 passes for 169 yards and one touchdown in 13 games in 2023. While he was once a first-round draft pick, Toney has largely become a gadget player in the NFL. However, there is no denying Toney's quickness and ability to make defenders miss. He has been especially valuable in the return game. While Toney would not usurp DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Seattle's top receivers, he would have a chance for a role in an offense that should be creative under new coordinator Ryan Grubb. If signed, Toney would be far more important to the Seahawks' success than that of your fantasy team.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers running back Emanuel Wilson (hip) is listed on the team's first official injury report on Tuesday and was given a limited tag at practice. Wilson should be able to suit up for the Week 1 regular-season opener this Friday in Brazil against the Philadelphia Eagles, but his status will be worth watching later in the week. The 25-year-old's status is worth watching even closer, considering that rookie MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) didn't practice on Tuesday, although he's still expected to be fine to play in Week 1. Wilson will have a bigger role in his second year in the league with AJ Dillon (neck) out for the year, but he's currently the RB3 in Green Bay and should be on the waiver wire in standard 12-team leagues to kick off the year. Wilson had only 14 carries but gained 85 yards in seven games in his rookie campaign last year, also catching four passes for 23 yards.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (hand) finds himself on the team's first official injury report on Tuesday and he was listed as a limited practice participant leading up to Friday's Week 1 regular-season opener in Brazil against the Philadelphia Eagles. Doubs is dealing with a hand contusion and is considered day-to-day, but it shouldn't impact his availability at all in the season opener. The 24-year-old has plenty of talent but was merely a late-round flier for receiver depth in most fantasy drafts because of Green Bay's crowded receiving corps that also includes Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. Don't sleep on Doubs, though, as he could emerge as one of the team's most productive pass-catchers after scoring eight times on 59 receptions for 674 yards during the regular season. Treat him as a WR5/flex in deeper fantasy leagues in Week 1 this Friday.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) said that he's ready to go for Week 1 of the regular season on Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams. Gibbs said he feels around 98-100% healthy after tweaking his hamstring early in training camp while running routes. "I'm good, just had a little tweak," Gibbs said. The second-year RB also said he's "more confident overall" entering Year 2. The 22-year-old returned to practice a week ago, and although he may be listed on the team's first official injury report on Wednesday, fantasy managers that invested in him at the end of the first round or early in the second round of drafts this year should feel confident that he'll be active on Sunday. Gibbs will be a must-start RB1 each week he's active, but he'll carry more bust potential in the season opener if the Lions decide to lean more towards backfield mate David Montgomery to ease Gibbs in.
From RotoBaller
As expected, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (calf) was officially back on the practice field on Tuesday as the team prepares for their Week 1 regular-season opener on Monday Night Football against the New York Jets. Even though a calf injury caused McCaffrey to miss most of training camp and all of the preseason, he was still the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick after leading the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards and 21 total touchdowns (14 rushing, seven receiving) in 16 regular-season games last year. CMC played in a combined 10 games due to injuries with the Carolina Panthers in 2020-21, but he's played in 33 regular-season contests the last two years and is the best fantasy player, hands down, when he's on the field. The 28-year-old is a must-start when active, but he'll certainly have more of a bust factor in Week 1 given all the time he missed in camp, especially with a tough matchup on tap.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers rookie first-round wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (chest) was back at the team's facilities and in the weight room around 48 hours after being shot in the chest during a robbery attempt over the weekend. Pearsall was put on the Non-Football Injury list on Monday, meaning he'll have to miss at least the first four games of his rookie season after the scary incident. The 23-year-old was released from the hospital on Sunday and will now get to work on his recovery as he looks to make an impact at some point for the Niners in 2024. Pearsall already missed valuable development time in training camp this summer due to injuries and will now fall behind even further, so fantasy managers hoping for some production in redraft leagues can probably leave him to the waiver wire for now. Pearsall is pretty much only worth stashing in dynasty/keeper formats.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said that wide receiver Marquise Brown (shoulder) will be the only player on the team listed as out for Thursday night's Week 1 regular-season opener against the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship. Brown was never expected to play in the season opener after suffering a sternoclavicular injury in the preseason opener. The 27-year-old big-ticket free-agent acquisition has yet to return to practice and is iffy to make his Chiefs debut in Week 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals next week. When Hollywood does return, though, he'll be one of quarterback Patrick Mahomes' top targets, making him stash-worthy in all fantasy formats. Tight end Travis Kelce and receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy should be the Chiefs' top three pass-catchers while Brown is sidelined.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus is listed as a starter alongside Terry McLaurin and Luke McCaffrey to begin the 2024 campaign. This is somewhat of a surprise, but he has been gaining ground on the depth chart following the departure of Jahan Dotson, who was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. Head coach Dan Quinn was a part of the Atlanta Falcons staff that brought Zaccheaus in as an undrafted free agent in 2019, so he has familiarity with the culture Quinn is trying to establish. Although the 27-year-old wideout has flashed at times throughout his career, his overall numbers of 104 receptions for 1,492 yards and 10 touchdowns in 72 career games aren't all that impressive. Either way, he should have his best opportunity to produce in 2024, though his upside is likely limited with rookie Jayden Daniels starting at quarterback.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers running back MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) did not practice on Tuesday as he continues to work through a hamstring injury. However, head coach Matt LaFleur said this was a planned absence and part of his preparation to play. The third-round rookie out of USC is an intriguing bench stash behind starter Josh Jacobs, as Green Bay has preferred to split touches in the backfield during LaFleur's tenure. However, Lloyd battling injuries to begin his career is not a great sign, and it wouldn't be surprising if he's sparsely utilized in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles -- if he even suits up. He might have fantasy value this season, but he should not be trusted in starting lineups this week.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders wide receiver Luke McCaffrey was listed as one of three starting wideouts on the team's first official depth chart heading into a matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Following the departure of Jahan Dotson, who was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, the WR2 job behind Terry McLaurin is up for grabs. McCaffrey was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft following his final season at Rice which saw him post just under 1,000 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. McCaffrey has name recognition from NFL fans thanks to his relatives who have played or are playing in the league, but his Year 1 fantasy expectations should be tempered. Washington will be led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, and rookies historically fail to support multiple fantasy-relevant pass-catchers. McCaffrey should be on the waiver wire watchlist, but for now, he should not be in starting lineups.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell caught 47 passes for 709 yards and seven touchdowns in just 11 games last year before suffering a season-ending foot injury. He posted three games of at least 100 receiving yards as a rookie, and he was well on his way to a potential WR1 season. The Houston product appears to be healthy heading into Year 2, but his offense is more crowded following the addition of All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs. However, Dell isn't concerned about his potential usage. "You gotta be ready when your [opportunities] come," Dell said on The Pivot podcast. "[C.J. Stroud] is gonna spread the ball out. Back in college, he played with a lot of receivers on one team, and everybody was eating." While Diggs, Dell, and Nico Collins could all have down weeks in a loaded offense, all three wideouts have WR1 upside in any given matchup. It will be worth monitoring who Stroud's preferred target is in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts, but it will likely change week-to-week. All three Texans wideouts are worth starting to begin the season.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has had a successful start to his NFL career. Through three seasons, the 2021 first-round pick has collected 251 receptions for 3,385 yards and 18 touchdowns. He finished his rookie and sophomore campaigns as a PPR WR1, but injuries and a lack of touchdowns led to a down year in 2023. However, superstar wideout and teammate Tyreek Hill said Waddle is primed for his best year yet. "All-Pro this year, Hill said. "He's taken his game to another level in the classroom, he's taking it more serious. I expect All-Pro, WR1, leading our team." While we can't put too much stock in Hill's statements, it's a positive sign that he's taken notice. Although Waddle has battled injuries this offseason, he is expected to be ready to go in Week 1, and he should be started in all formats against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (calf) returned to practice on Tuesday, Sept. 3.
Fantasy Spin: The 49ers likely chose to be as conservative as possible with McCaffrey's injury, which was reportedly minor. McCaffrey's fantasy prospects got a shot in the arm earlier Tuesday when it was announced left tackle Trent Williams received a contract extension, which means San Francisco will be able to bring back the important parts of the band for another year - even if some of the members reported a bit too late. The 28-year-old is still very much work taking No. 1 overall in drafts this week.
From TheHuddle
Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown is listed as the RB2 behind Zack Moss on the team's first official depth chart. Brown has been a popular fantasy sleeper this offseason, and while it would be ideal for him to be listed as the Week 1 starter, it doesn't change his potential outlook. Although the Bengals utilized Joe Mixon as a workhorse over the last few seasons, this backfield could shift to a committee approach following his departure. Brown averaged 11.1 yards per reception in a small sample size last year, and he is more explosive than Moss. For Week 1 against the New England Patriots, Brown is a risky flex option in PPR setups, but we'll know more about how the Bengals will split up the workload heading into Week 2.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers offensive lineman Isaac Seumalo (pec) will not play in Week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons while he works through a pec injury, according to head coach Mike Tomlin. The 30-year-old started all 17 games in his first season with Pittsburgh following a 17-start campaign in 2022 with the Philadelphia Eagles. Starting center Nate Herbig (shoulder) suffered a season-ending injury this preseason, so the team will be without two key players on the interior offensive line. This could cause issues for quarterback Russell Wilson and running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren (hamstring) in a matchup with stud interior defensive lineman Grady Jarrett.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons reporter Joe Patrick writes that Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts was the most impressive pass-catcher of the group in terms of volume and ability early in training camp. As camp progressed, Pitts' volume changed and he was catching balls on shorter routes at times. The biggest change is that it seems he's not the player used primarily to stretch the field vertically like he was last year. New quarterback Kirk Cousins also has better anticipation than the previous QBs Pitts has worked with and can deliver the ball in ways that allow for more run-after-the-catch opportunities for Pitts. Last year, Pitts was hampered by injuries and he looked much better in camp this summer. Most fantasy football pundits are expecting a bounce-back year for the 23-year-old in 2024 with Cousins in the fold as a midrange TE1.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz is listed as the team's starting tight end on the depth chart entering Week 1 of the regular season this Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Behind Ertz, the Commanders have listed John Bates as the No. 2 and rookie Ben Sinnott as the No. 3. It confirms the idea that Sinnott is merely a dynasty/keeper stash in 2024. The 33-year-old Ertz is no longer the fantasy stud he was in his time with the Philadelphia Eagles, but he'll enter the regular season as Washington's top pass-catching tight end on a team that lacks experienced receiving depth for rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Ertz miss most of last year with a quadriceps injury with the Arizona Cardinals, but he could be a sneaky TE2 rebound candidate if he stays healthy this year in Kliff Kingsbury's offense. At best, Ertz could be peppered with targets as a security blanket for Daniels.
From RotoBaller