Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 10
The Cincinnati Bengals are working out veteran free-agent running back Leonard Fournette on Monday. The Bengals apparently are considering adding to their RB room after Zack Moss (neck) suffered a season-ending injury in the Week 9 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, despite trading for Khalil Herbert at the deadline last Tuesday. Chase Brown should operate as the team's unquestioned lead back moving forward, with Trayveon Williams as the RB3 behind Brown and Herbert. If the Bengals were to add Fournette, he'd almost certainly start on the practice squad before potentially working his way onto the active 53-man roster as additional RB depth. The 29-year-old veteran played in two games with the Bills in 2023 and has 12 carries for 40 yards on the ground. There's no guarantee that Lenny would find a significant role in Cincy if he were to be signed.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals are hosting four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard on a free-agent visit on Monday, according to sources. The Bengals are currently on the outside looking in on the AFC playoff picture, but their defense could use some help and experience in the secondary as they look to make a late-season playoff push. In addition to Howard, Cincy is working out free-agent running back Leonard Fournette on Monday. The 31-year-old Howard played in 13 games for the Miami Dolphins last year but was slowed by a foot injury late in the season. He should be fully healthy at this point after not joining a team for the start of the 2024 season. In his 13 games with Miami in 2023, Howard had 45 tackles (36 solo), an interception and 12 pass breakups.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said he'd expect new wide receiver Diontae Johnson to ramp up his snaps now that he's had enough practices with the team under his belt. Johnson was dealt from the Carolina Panthers to the Ravens before the trade deadline, but he's been a non-factor in his two games with the Ravens, catching just one of two targets for a six-yard gain. He wasn't targeted at all in his debut with Baltimore in the Week 9 win over the Denver Broncos. But now that the former Steeler has had enough practice reps, we should start to see him get more involved in the offense, starting in Week 11 in a big divisional clash against his former team in Pittsburgh. Still, Johnson will be a shaky WR3/flex option for fantasy managers in an offense with plenty of mouths to feed. Johnson's increased involvement is bad news for wideouts Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said that running back Keaton Mitchell's role in the offense could expand moving forward. "I do see a little bit of a three-headed monster there," Harbaugh said of the team's backfield that also includes the NFL's leading rusher in Derrick Henry and pass-catching specialist Justice Hill. Mitchell finally recovered from a torn ACL that he suffered in his rookie season in 2023 to make his season debut in last Thursday night's one-point win over the division-rival Cincinnati Bengals, but the 22-year-old wasn't involved much, seeing two snaps on offense. He averaged 8.4 yards per carry and 10.3 yards per catch in eight games last year and has enough explosive abilities as a ball-carrier to warrant a bench stash in fantasy leagues down the stretch, especially if you also have Henry rostered.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said coming out of the team's bye week that quarterback Jameis Winston remains the team's starting QB heading into their Week 11 contest against the Winston's former team, the New Orleans Saints. The 30-year-old veteran pulled off a surprising upset of the division-rival Baltimore Ravens in his first start in Week 8 but then fell flat against a tough Los Angeles Chargers defense in Week 9 before going on bye. Although Winston looked pretty bad before the bye, the Browns are going to give him another shot with Deshaun Watson (Achilles) done for the year. The alternative to Winston would be Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Winston doesn't exactly have the greatest supporting cast of receivers and should be considered an interception-prone, low-end QB2 in fantasy against a Saints D that hasn't been a great matchup for opposing QBs.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos defense/special teams unit failed to stand out in their 16-14 loss to the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10 on Sunday on the road. They did manage to get to quarterback Patrick Mahomes to sack him four times for a loss of 23 yards, and they also held the Chiefs offense to under 20 points. The Broncos D also held KC to only 57 rushing yards, but were unable to slow Mahomes down through the air, surrendering 243 yards through the air and one touchdown. It would have been a more fruitful day for Denver's defense had they been able to force the Chiefs into some turnovers, but that didn't turn out to be the case. Despite the down performance, the Broncos' D/ST is still a top-five unit in overall fantasy points and will have a chance to bounce back at home against the visiting Atlanta Falcons in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs led the ground game in the team's 26-23 comeback win over the Houston Texans in Week 10. Gibbs carried the ball 19 times for 71 yards and caught two of his three targets for an additional 37 yards. He outpaced David Montgomery by seven carries, solidifying his lead role in the backfield for this game. However, this marks just the third game this season where he hasn't found the endzone or surpassed 15 fantasy points. He'll look to return to RB1 form in Week 11 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery contributed in the Lions' 26-23 win over the Houston Texans in Week 10, recording 12 carries for 32 yards, a touchdown, and a 24-yard catch. Montgomery scored his eighth rushing touchdown of the season on a short three-yard run in the third quarter, salvaging an otherwise modest fantasy outing. Since returning from the bye, Montgomery's fantasy production has dipped, reaching 15+ points in only one of the last five games after starting the season strong. Despite the recent slump, he remains a steady RB2 option, especially with his team-leading nine touchdowns. Montgomery will look to rebound in Week 11 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown delivered another top-10 fantasy performance in Week 10, securing six catches on eight targets for 60 yards and a touchdown in the 26-23 win over the Houston Texans. St. Brown extended his impressive touchdown streak to seven consecutive games while logging his sixth game with 18 or more fantasy points this season. With this consistent production, he currently ranks as a top-six fantasy WR for the 2024 season. St. Brown remains a must-start as he heads into Week 11 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (shoulder) made a significant impact in the team's 26-23 win over the Houston Texans in Week 10, catching three of six targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. His performance earned him a TE4 finish for the week, marking his second-highest fantasy output this season. However, LaPorta exited the game early due to a shoulder injury. The Lions later reported an AC joint sprain, so LaPorta's status for Week 11 against the Jacksonville Jaguars remains uncertain. Be sure to keep an eye on practice reports throughout this week. If he cannot play, expect Brock Wright to take over primary tight end pass-catching duties for Detroit.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams returned from a two-game suspension for a PED violation and contributed to the team's 26-23 victory over the Houston Texans in Week 10. Williams caught three of his five targets for 53 yards, finishing third on the team in receiving and averaging an impressive 17.7 yards per catch. Through seven games this season, he has recorded 20 catches for 414 yards and three touchdowns. As Williams regains his rhythm in Detroit's offense, he projects as a solid flex option heading into Week 11 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz was an absolute dud for any fantasy managers that streamed him in the team's 16-14 loss to the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10. Lutz made both of his extra-point attempts but couldn't come through on either of his two field-goal tries, with one being a miss from 60 yards out at the end of the first quarter, and the other being a blocked attempt from 35 yards out that would have given the Chiefs their first loss of the year. We warned fantasy managers that Lutz was extra risky against KC's stingy defense, especially on the road in a hostile environment. The 30-year-old still ranks as the No. 12 kicker in fantasy points through 10 weeks, though, and is tied for sixth among all kickers with 18 FGs made in 2024. His 21 field-goal attempts are also tied for sixth in the league. Lutz could bounce back in Week 11 versus the Atlanta Falcons.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff struggled in fantasy during the team's 26-23 victory over the Houston Texans in Week 10. Goff threw for 240 yards and two touchdowns but completed just 15 of 30 passes, marking a season-low 50% completion rate. He also threw five interceptions which certainly put a damper on any solid numbers he posted this week. This was his third single-digit fantasy performance of the season and his second consecutive game with under 10 points. Despite Detroit's seven-game winning streak, Goff's fantasy output has been inconsistent and far from elite. He'll look to bounce back in Week 11 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram was a bright spot compared to the rest of the offense in a tough 12-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. With Mac Jones replacing Trevor Lawrence due to injury, the offense had just 111 yards through the air. Engram managed to get 40 of those yards on six receptions, four higher than the second most on the team. Engram seems to have decent chemistry with Jones, but that won't matter much if the offense continues to struggle like on Sunday. Engram with Lawrence under center has been a top fantasy tight end while healthy, so while his upside is limited with Jones, the veteran tight end should still be viewed as a low-end TE1 if Jones continues to play. Engram will look to improve on this solid performance in Week 11 against the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. played after being questionable all week but didn't do much in a 12-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The Jaguars offense as a whole didn't do much, but BTJ specifically finished with just two catches for 12 yards on three targets. With Mac Jones under center instead of Trevor Lawrence who was out due to injury, BTJ seems less likely to get accurate deep shots, reducing his big-play potential. That is arguably his biggest strength, so if Jones is under center going forward, that greatly caps his upside. The rookie has been stellar so far this season, but his chest injury combined with Lawrence's shoulder injury seems to be slowing down the momentum. BTJ will look to return to form in Week 11 against the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams set a new season-low for touches with only three in the 16-14 loss to the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in Week 10, carrying the ball just once for a gain of one yard while catching both of his targets for six yards. In a day in which neither team could get anything going on the ground -- the Broncos finished with 78 total rushing yards against a tough Chiefs defense -- Denver decided to feature rookie Audric Estime as their primary rusher. The rookie led the team with 14 rushing attempts and 53 yards. The workload distribution was a surprise after Williams had been more efficient on the ground in recent weeks, and it certainly won't make him more attractive as an RB3/flex in fantasy in a Week 11 home matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, where Williams should see more than just three touches.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby finished with just two carries for four yards in a 12-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Starting running back Travis Etienne Jr. returned from injury this week, but despite that, most expected the two running backs would split touches. However, Etienne Jr. dominated touches instead, finishing with 11 carries and one reception. The offense as a whole failed against the Vikings, making each offensive player's upside even lower than before as long as Mac Jones is under center. If Bigsby falls back into a full-time backup role, he goes from a decent flex option to exclusively a handcuff, the same fantasy outlook he had to start the season. Bigsby will look to be more involved out of the backfield in Week 11 against the Detroit Lions.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. came into the Week 10 game against the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs with seven catches on 15 targets for 56 yards while carrying the ball one time for a pickup of 17 yards. In the 16-14 loss on Sunday, the Broncos made it a point to get him more involved, as he caught all four of his targets for 13 yards and carried the ball three times for 17 yards. His four targets on the day were tied for second on the team with rookie Devaughn Vele behind Courtland Sutton's nine targets. Mims came into Week 10 having not exceeded two catches in any game, so Sunday's involvement was his most of the season. However, the 22-year-old second-year wideout didn't do much with his seven touches and shouldn't be expected to have a similar role when the Broncos look to get back over .500 in Week 11 against the visiting Atlanta Falcons.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. performed decently in a 12-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The 25-year-old back finished with 44 yards on 11 carries and added a catch for negative one yard. Unfortunately, decent sums up Etienne Jr.'s season so far. The Jaguars offense with Trevor Lawrence at the helm has been up and down all season, limiting the running back's upside. Add on the emergence of backup Tank Bigsby, and you have an underperforming high-round pick. Mac Jones in relief of Lawrence finished with just 111 yards passing, and while the Vikings have been great on defense this season, this performance does not bode well for Etienne Jr. in future weeks if Jones remains the starter. Etienne Jr. and the Jaguars will look to improve on their measly seven points against the Detroit Lions in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones struggled to run the offense in a 12-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Starter Trevor Lawrence was out with a shoulder injury, so Jones was tasked with stepping up in his absence. The former New England Patriot could not take advantage, finishing with 14 completions on 22 attempts for 111 yards, two interceptions, and a rushing touchdown. Besides Christian Kirk, Jones had all of his weapons available, so his effort is disappointing to say the least. The Vikings are a great defense under Brian Flores's tutelage, but if Lawrence is out for the rest of the season, this performance should leave fantasy managers pessimistic about the Jaguars offense going forward. Jones and the Jaguars will look to bounce back in a tough matchup with the Detroit Lions in Week 11.
From RotoBaller