Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 10
New York Giants tight end Theo Johnson (knee, back) was a limited participant during Thursday's practice session. This marks back-to-back days that Johnson has been limited due to multiple injuries. Normally, Johnson isn't much of a factor in the offense, but he's coming off his best game of the season last week. He hauled in three of his six targets for 51 yards and a touchdown during the Week 9 loss to the Washington Commanders. The Giants are banged up right now, so Johnson could continue seeing more targets going forward. He could be on the TE2 radar if active for the Week 10 matchup against the Carolina Panthers.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants have officially ruled out wide receiver Darius Slayton (concussion) for Sunday's game in Munich, Germany, in Week 10 against the Carolina Panthers and he won't travel with the team to Europe. Slayton was unable to clear the league's concussion protocol after suffering a concussion in the Week 9 loss to the division-rival Washington Commanders and will now hope to after the Week 11 bye to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12. Rookie Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson will continue to serve as quarterback Daniel Jones' top targets, with Jalin Hyatt and rookie tight end Theo Johnson also having more opportunities this weekend in the passing game with Slayton out. However, the Panthers defense has stiffened against opposing wideouts in the last three weeks, allowing the fourth-fewest half-PPR points per game.
From RotoBaller
After being limited in Wednesday's practice, Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (quadriceps) returned to a full practice a day later on Thursday. Hunt was also limited by a quad injury last week but ended up playing in the Monday night overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and went over 100 rushing yards with the walk-off touchdown. There shouldn't be any concerns over whether the 29-year-old will suit up as KC's lead back for a big divisional matchup against the visiting Denver Broncos. The Broncos defense has been pretty stingy against RBs in 2024, but they did give up over 100 rushing yards and two scores to Ravens RB Derrick Henry in Week 9. Because of significant volume that he's been receiving as the Chiefs' lead back with Isiah Pacheco (leg) on Injured Reserve, Hunt has been a solid RB2 for fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie running back Bucky Irving (toe) remained a limited participant in Thursday's practice. Irving is dealing with a toe injury that he could have to manage for the rest of his first season the NFL, but he should be good to play this Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10. Tampa's three-headed backfield that also includes Rachaad White and Sean Tucker limits Irving's weekly upside as an RB3/flex. However, the 22-year-old has the most fantasy upside of the trio and is extremely dangerous in space as a runner and pass-catcher. With receiver Mike Evans (hamstring) expected to miss a third straight game this weekend and with Chris Godwin (ankle) out for the year, look for Tampa to try and lean more heavily on their trio of RBs against San Francisco. Irving has averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 7.6 yards per catch in his nine games in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (hamstring) was listed as a non-participant in practice on Thursday for the second straight day this week. Evans was working off to the side with a trainer on Wednesday but he's just not ready to return in Week 10 to face the San Francisco 49ers and is fully expected to miss a third straight game. The Bucs are hoping the 31-year-old future Hall of Famer will be ready to roll in Week 12 after the Week 11 bye. Chris Godwin (ankle) is out for the year, and now Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Sterling Shepard (hamstring, hip) are in danger of missing this Sunday after not practicing yet this week. Depending on the statuses of McMillan and Shepard for this weekend, Trey Palmer could act as the team's top wideout against the 49ers, with tight end Cade Otton being heavily targeted by quarterback Baker Mayfield (toe) yet again.
From RotoBaller
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be in dire straights at the wide receiver position in Week 10 against the San Francisco 49ers. Mike Evans (hamstring) is likely to miss his third straight game, Chris Godwin (ankle) is out for the year, and Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Sterling Shepard (hamstring, hip) are in danger of sitting out this weekend after two straight missed practices on Wednesday and Thursday. McMillan didn't play in the Week 9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. If neither McMillan nor Shepard are able to play this Sunday, Trey Palmer and Marquez Valdes-Scantling would be quarterback Baker Mayfield's (toe) top receiving targets, as well as tight end Cade Otton, who has gone off the last several weeks with Evans and Godwin out. Check back on Friday for more clarity on McMillan's and Shepard's statuses.
From RotoBaller
For a second straight day this week on Thursday, the San Francisco 49ers listed kicker Jake Moody (ankle) as limited in practice. Moody has missed the last three games due to a high-ankle sprain but is on track to return in Week 10 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after coming off last week's bye. The 49ers already cut fill-in kicker Anders Carlson on Tuesday, so all signs point to the 24-year-old booter returning on Sunday as one of the better fantasy options at the position. In addition, the Niners are getting All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) back, which should only make the offense more productive. Before spraining his ankle, Moody made 13 of his 14 field-goal attempts while making all 12 of his extra-point tries for the Niners.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receivers Deebo Samuel Sr. (oblique, rib) and Jauan Jennings (hip) were both limited in practice for the second straight day this week on Thursday. Chris Conley (hamstring) missed another practice. While Samuel is still hurting from injuries he suffered in the Week 8 win over the Dallas Cowboys, he's still up in the air to play in Week 10 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite having last week's bye to rest up. We'd still be surprised if he's not active this Sunday. Samuel is a must-start fantasy wideout when active, especially with Brandon Aiyuk (knee) out for the year. Jennings missed Weeks 7 and 8 due to his hip ailment but could make it back this weekend, where he'd likely serve as the No. 2 behind Samuel, giving him upside as a WR4/flex for fantasy managers in a good matchup.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) is expected to make his 2024 season debut on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers are coming off their bye and McCaffrey has been pain-free after two straight limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday. Achilles tendonitis in both of his legs has kept CMC out all year to this point, so fantasy managers that likely drafted him first overall will finally be able to deploy him this weekend, albeit as a more volatile RB1 than usual with the Niners likely to be mindful of his workload in his debut. Jordan Mason (shoulder), who was a must-start RB1 in fantasy with McCaffrey sidelined the first eight weeks, will take a huge hit in value with last year's leading rusher returning to the fold for the 49ers.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals rookie wide receiver Jermaine Burton was inactive in the Week 9 win over the Las Vegas Raiders after missing some meetings. However, Burton was much-improved this week, and the Bengals are expecting him to be a factor for Thursday night's divisional clash against the Baltimore Ravens with Tee Higgins (quadriceps) missing his third straight game. Charlie Jones (groin) is also out for the Bengals, so the 23-year-old Burton is likely to work as the No. 3 wideout in Week 10 behind Ja'Marr Chase and Andrei Iosivas. Burton, a third-rounder in April of this year, has real skills as a deep threat but has plenty of maturing to do off the field. Tight end Mike Gesicki will remain heavily involved as a pass-catcher, too, so Burton is more of a DFS long shot on Thursday night. He has only two catches for 88 yards in his first seven NFL games.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens rookie running back Rasheen Ali (ankle) is officially out for Thursday night's divisional tilt against the Cincinnati Bengals after entering the contest with a questionable tag. Meanwhile, second-year back Keaton Mitchell (knee) is fully recovered from a torn ACL suffered last year and will make his 2024 debut on Thursday. Ali, a fifth-rounder out of Marshall this year, was active for just one game so far this year (Week 6) but didn't play any offensive snaps. Now that Mitchell is back in the fold in Baltimore's backfield, Ali will most likely be a healthy scratch on game days moving forward once he reaches full health. In addition to Mitchell, the Ravens have the NFL's leading rusher in Derrick Henry and pass-catching specialist Justice Hill.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals new running back Khalil Herbert, who was acquired from the Chicago Bears at the deadline on Tuesday, is officially active on Thursday night to make his debut with the team against the division-rival Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals made the move to land Herbert for more backfield depth behind starter Chase Brown after Zack Moss suffered a season-ending neck injury in the Week 9 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Herbert should have a bigger role in Cincinnati the rest of the way than he did in Chicago -- he had only eight carries for 16 yards and a touchdown in six games with the Bears -- but he probably won't have as much standalone fantasy appeal as Moss did while working alongside Brown. If anything, RB3 Trayveon Williams might see more run as a change-of-pace option in the Bengals' backfield as Herbert learns the offense.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason (shoulder) was limited in practice on Thursday after he had no restrictions on Wednesday. It's a downgrade for Mason, but the Niners could just be resting him coming out of their bye week as they prepare to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday. Mason was a must-start RB1 for fantasy managers through the season's first nine weeks with Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) on Injured Reserve, but McCaffrey is in line to return in Week 10. San Fran could ease McCaffrey back into their backfield against the Bucs, but an active CMC will automatically make Mason more of an RB4/flex in fantasy lineups. Mason sprained his left shoulder in Week 6 and aggravated it in Week 8 before getting the bye in Week 9 to heal up. With McCaffrey on the verge of his return, Mason should still be stashed in most fantasy leagues as a handcuff.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) was limited in practice on Thursday for the second straight day this week as he tries to make his 2024 debut in Week 10 this Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was reported on Wednesday that McCaffrey was pain-free while putting in a limited session. CMC hasn't officially been activated from Injured Reserve, but that's expected to come later this week in order to debut this weekend. Because there's a chance the Niners ease the All-Pro RB into the fold on Sunday versus Tampa Bay, he'll be a more volatile low-end RB1 for fantasy managers that have been stashing the talented back all year. Jordan Mason (shoulder) has been practicing in full this week, so he looks more than ready to help shoulder the load for CMC if he makes his return in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion) and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (shoulder) both missed a second straight day of practice this week on Thursday. Olave suffered his second concussion of the year in the Week 9 loss to the division-rival Carolina Panthers and had to be carted off. The 24-year-old has met with specialists this week and doesn't appear ready to return for Week 10 versus the division-rival Atlanta Falcons. Fantasy managers may want to prepare for a multi-week absence from Olave. With Wilson also trending in the wrong direction for the weekend, rookie Mason Tipton could be quarterback Derek Carr's top target in addition to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and tight end Juwan Johnson. Expect the Saints to lean more heavily on running back Alvin Kamara and tight end Taysom Hill with Olave looking unlikely to play.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee) returned to a full practice on Thursday after he was listed as limited on Wednesday. Brown was considered day-to-day earlier this week after undergoing an MRI exam on Monday following a knee injury in the Week 9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The fact that the 27-year-old is back to full practice is a good sign for his availability this Sunday against the division-rival Dallas Cowboys unless he suffers a setback. Brown is a must-start in fantasy lineups when he's active, but his ceiling could be higher if DeVonta Smith (hamstring) is limited or out this weekend. The three-time Pro Bowler has caught 23 of his 34 targets for 444 yards and three touchdowns in the five games he's played in this year, his third in Philly. The Cowboys secondary has been more vulnerable against opposing wideouts in recent weeks.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (hamstring) practiced in full for the second straight day this week on Thursday. Goedert injured his hamstring in Week 6 against the Cleveland Browns and hasn't played since, but he's been practicing in full this week and appears to be on track to return to action against the division-rival Dallas Cowboys this Sunday in Week 10. It means that Grant Calcaterra is set to go back to backup duties at the position. Although he hasn't played in several weeks, if Goedert is active, he'll be back in play for fantasy managers as a low-end TE1/high-end TE2, especially if receiver DeVonta Smith (hamstring) is out or limited. Goedert is tied for 10th among TEs with 8.4 half-PPR points per game in only five games this year, catching 24 of his 29 targets for 301 yards and no touchdowns. The Cowboys have been a top-12 matchup for opposing TEs the last three weeks in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) went through a second straight limited practice on Thursday while battling a shoulder sprain that he suffered in the Week 9 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Lamb said he will not wear a brace on Sunday against the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles and that he's been feeling good. Specifically, the 25-year-old has an AC joint sprain in his right shoulder, but he's expected to play this weekend. However, given his injury and the fact that he'll now be taking throws from backup quarterback Cooper Rush with Dak Prescott (hamstring) injured, Lamb's fantasy stock is on the decline heading into Week 10 and beyond. Still, Lamb is probably a better upside option than most WR3/flex choices fantasy managers may have. It's a tough matchup to boot, as the Eagles defense has allowed the second-fewest half-PPR points to wideouts in the last three weeks.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (quadriceps), who came into Thursday night's game against the division-rival Baltimore Ravens listed as doubtful, is officially out for Week 10. Higgins injured his quad muscle in practice and will now be missing his third straight game and fifth total this year. He needs a little more time to heal up before potentially returning in Week 11 to face the Los Angeles Chargers. Expect Ja'Marr Chase and Andrei Iosivas to be quarterback Joe Burrow's top receivers, while tight end Mike Gesicki should also continue to benefit in what could be another high-scoring game against Baltimore. In the last two games with Higgins sidelined, Gesicki has drawn 14 targets, catching 12 of them for 173 yards and two touchdowns, with both of his scores coming in the Week 9 blowout win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. (knee) has been ruled out for the Thursday night game against the division-rival Baltimore Ravens, with B.J. Hill expected to play in his absence, according to sources. It will be Brown's second straight missed game. The Bengals offense didn't really miss the 28-year-old in the Week 9 blowout win over the Las Vegas Raiders -- quarterback Joe Burrow threw for five touchdowns -- but it might matter more against the Ravens in a divisional clash in primetime. Cody Ford played 74 snaps on offense on Burrow's blind side against the Raiders last Sunday and didn't give up a single sack. He'll have a much tougher task in Week 10, though, against a more physical Ravens defensive front. In addition to Brown, receiver Tee Higgins (quadriceps) will be missing for the third straight week for this offense.
From RotoBaller