RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dynasty | Eagles running back Saquon Barkley rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns while adding two catches for 23 yards and another score in his Philadelphia debut. Dynasty Analysis: The Eagles offense struggled in its first two series but came to life after with Barkley leading the way. It couldn't have gone much better for Saquon as he had 24 of the 25 running back carries with Kenneth Gainwell garnering just one tote. While we have a long way to go before declaring Barkley as being totally back, this was a pretty awe-inspiring debut for his new team.
Dynasty | Packers receiver Jayden Reed had four catches for 138 yards and a touchdown while adding a 33-yard rushing touchdown in Green Bay's season-opening loss to the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: Reed was a fantasy dynamo at times last year and this game showed that was no fluke. It looks like Reed, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are the top receivers in this offense and while any ot them can post a big game, Reed certainly looks like the best bet of the trio at the moment. The big concern with him is clearly the health of Jordan Love, so stay tuned.
Dynasty | Packers running back Josh Jacobs rushed for 84 yards and caught two passes for 20 yards in Green Bay's opening night loss to the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: Jacobs had one 32-yard gain but was otherwise quiet on the night. This will certainly not be the case every week and he may be even more important to the offense should Green Bay lose Jordan Love for an extended period of time. Regardless, Jacobs is a fringe RB1 most weeks and this seems like a game that would be closer to his floor than ceiling this year.
Dynasty | Packers receiver Dontayvion Wicks was held without a catch in Green Bay's season-opening loss to the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: Wicks was targeted three times but failed to record a reception. This was a major downer for many dynasty managers who bought into the hype surrounding Wicks all off-season. While it's just one game, it does seem as if he's a distant fourth option behind blossoming star Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. Wicks remains a hold in dynasty leagues for now but expectations should be tempered.
Dynasty | Eagles receiver Jahan Dotson was held catchless in his Eagles debut. Dynasty Analysis: Yuck. Even worse, Dotson garnered just one target on the night. While it's just one game, the notion Dotson would take a few targets away from AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith early on can be put to rest. Dotson is a hold in dynasty leagues but his value arrow is pointing straight down at the moment.
New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers (hip) was added to the Week 1 injury report on Saturday and is now questionable to suit up for the season opener on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Peppers is one of the team's key defenders, not just in the secondary, so not having him on Sunday would be a big blow as the Pats try to slow down a Bengals offense that could be without its top two receivers in Ja'Marr Chase (holdout) and Tee Higgins (hamstring). The 28-year-old is worth stashing in IDP leagues but should probably be on benches in Week 1 now that he's up in the air to play. The former 25th overall pick in 2017 out of Michigan is heading into his third year in New England after racking up 87 solo tackles, seven tackles for loss, two interceptions, eight pass breakups, a forced fumble, two fumble recoveries and a sack in 32 games (20 starts) over the last two years.
San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason has an outside chance to draw a start when the team opens the 2024 season at home against the New York Jets on Monday night. All-Pro starter Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles) has been listed as questionable ahead of the game despite head coach Kyle Shanahan maintaining throughout the preseason that the injury would not cause McCaffrey to miss Week 1. During the preseason Mason earned the task of backing up McCaffrey, showing adequate burst and vision. Last year, Mason averaged 5.2 yards per carry and three touchdowns with minimal involvement in the passing game, mostly in garbage time. If McCaffrey cannot go on Monday night, Mason is worth considering for a starting slot in fantasy lineups. Last year, New York's defense was much better against the pass than the run, ranking 25th in the league in yards per game allowed and could be even worse this year, with the loss of key personnel and new acquisition Haason Reddick to miss the game due to a holdout. Mason managers should keep an eye on McCaffrey's status leading up to Monday, although news will probably come too late for most.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown gets a superb matchup Sunday evening when the team squares off against the Los Angeles Rams. Expect St. Brown to eat against an LA secondary ranked worst in the league last season regarding their coverage, as per PFF. While the Rams prioritized their defensive backfield in the offseason, fantasy managers should have no fears slotting him into their lineups. The fourth-year superstar wideout is the engine that drives Detroit's offense, and quarterback Jared Goff's targets are distinctly funneled to him and sophomore tight end Sam LaPorta. The two combined for 284 targets (164/120) in 2023, while the next-highest Lions receiver saw just 71. It is possible -- with all the training camp hype he received -- that WR Jameson Williams will garner a more significant target share in 2024. However, St. Brown is in a pristine role and unlikely to lose his WR1 status. He's RotoBaller's second overall option at WR in Week 1 rankings.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy will open his third pro season on Monday night with a home game against the New York Jets. In 2023, Purdy had an excellent year, leading the league in several important categories, which led to a fourth-place finish in MVP voting and a narrow loss in Super Bowl LVIII. Despite Purdy's success in the regular season, the 24-year-old spent most of last year on the fantasy QB1/2 edge, mostly because of San Francisco's emphasis on the ground game and Purdy's lack of reliable rushing production. Meanwhile, the Jets' passing defense was elite last year, ranking second in the NFL in yards per game (168.3). In terms of personnel turnover, New York's defense remains largely intact though they did lose safety Jordan Whitehead as well as Bryce Huff and Quinton Jefferson up front. In March they replaced Huff by trading for All-Pro Haason Reddick. However, Reddick will not play on Monday night due to a contract holdout, which should make life a little easier for Purdy. Even still, with the Jets' pass defense being a true shutdown unit, Purdy is firmly in QB2 territory this week.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery will square off against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday evening in the team's home opener. The Lions' offense will be at full strength heading into a matchup with the highest projected point total of the weekend (52.5). Detroit has an implied team total of 28 points, and Montgomery has a fantastic chance to get in on the action. Despite running mate Jahmyr Gibbs returning to health leading up to Week 1, it is fair to expect that his workload might be monitored. This would leave the lion's share of backfield touches in the sixth-year back's hands for at least one more week. It is believed by some in the fantasy community that Gibbs may supersede the veteran in the pecking order this season. Whether that is the case or not -- only time will tell. Regardless, both Detroit RBs are excellent plays this week and season-long. Additionally, they both hold baked-in upside if either one were to miss any time. Montgomery is RotoBaller's RB22 in this week's rankings.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones rushed for more than 100 yards in each of the final five games of last season, which included a pair of playoff games.
Fantasy Spin: Jones should provide a boost to a Minnesota rushing attack that ranked among the league's worst last year, but his ceiling will depend on whether or not he is given touches near the goal line. For now, Jones can be considered a low-end RB2.
From TheHuddle
Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell will make his pro debut on Sunday when the Colts host the Houston Texans. The second round pick out of Texas is coming off a collegiate season where he grabbed 55 catches for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Longhorns. The rookie brings a ton of speed and versatility to the table, and will likely be a solid target when paired up with QB Anthony Richardson's big arm. With the injury to Josh Downs (ankle) Mitchell is in line for a starting spot, but his floor isn't safe enough to provide fantasy managers with confidence for his career debut. Fantasy managers in deeper leagues in need of a flex option can give Mitchell a look, but most fantasy managers should be waiting to see how he performs in his first few games before throwing him into lineups.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) is healthy and ready to go for his matchup against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night. Gibbs hurt his hamstring a few weeks back at practice, but that is all behind him now as he enters a juicy Week 1 matchup with a 52.5 point over/under. The second-year back is coming off an exceptional rookie season in which he rushed for 945 yards and ten touchdowns on 182 carries (5.2 avg). He even chipped in an additional 52 receptions for 316 yards and a TD on 71 targets. All this despite eclipsing more than a 63% snap-share in 3-of-15 contests. Gibbs may get a little less work this week as he is eased back into action after his injury. However, he has proven his efficiency on limited touches in the past and is always a threat for a house call with the ball in his hands. The Alabama product is RotoBaller's RB8 heading into Sunday's slate.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season where he missed time but appears to be all set for the 2024 campaign. He'll start things off on Sunday when the Colts host the Houston Texans in an AFC South clash. Taylor has historically performed great against the Texans, averaging 135.2 yards/per game with eight total touchdowns in the six games played. Taylor is also up for a huge workload, as Indy has used him in year's past. The Texans were a middle of the pack matchup for fantasy RBs last season, allowing the 16th most points to the position. Given that Taylor is fully healthy, has little competition in the backfield, and his history facing the Texans, he is a must-start for fantasy owners this weekend.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein will head on the road to take on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. Zuerlein had a strong season for the Jets in 2023, hitting 35 of his 38 field-goal tries while adding 15 extra points. He should see more scoring opportunities with Aaron Rodgers back under center after missing almost the entire season last year. Zuerlein can be treated as a top-15 fantasy option against a 49ers defense that allowed the 18th-most fantasy points per game to kickers last season.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is coming off a career season in 2023 where he grabbed 109 catches for 1152 yards and four touchdowns. He'll look to follow up his strong campaign on Sunday when the Colts host the Houston Texans. Pittman was quietly one of the most targeted receivers in football last season, seeing an influx of volume when the team turned to QB Gardner Minshew after QB Anthony Richardson's injury. He's in line for a decent matchup against the Texans, a team that was in the bottom-half of fantasy points allowed to receivers and the bottom-ten of receiving yards allowed last season. While it's unclear how much passing volume the Colts will implement, Pittman will likely be Richardson's No. 1 target and makes him a strong start this week. Fantasy managers should target Pittman as high-end WR2/low-end WR1 this week.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson will kick off his third NFL season with a road matchup against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. The 49ers pose a middle-of-the-road matchup for Wilson as they allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2023. Wilson will enjoy catching passes from Aaron Rodgers this season after he struggled through some rough quarterback play last season following Rodgers' Week 1 Achilles rupture. Fantasy gamers can feel confident locking Wilson into their starting lineups as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver for the regular-season opener.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Mike Williams will take on the San Francisco 49ers on the road to kick off his 2024 season. Williams appeared in just three games for the Los Angeles Chargers last season before he tore his ACL and missed the remainder of the year. That being said, he was off to a hot start before the injury, racking up 249 receiving yards in his three games before getting hurt. Williams will slot in as the No. 2 receiver for the Jets opposite Garrett Wilson and could return WR3 value in fantasy in some weeks. The 49ers don't pose a particularly tough matchup for Williams as they allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to receivers in 2023. Treat Williams as a solid flex option for Week 1.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin will kick off his 2024 season with a road game against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. Conklin will open the year as the starting tight end for the Jets and could be in line for a solid season catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was behind some big seasons for his tight ends while he was with the Green Bay Packers and could lean on Conklin in the middle of the field with the Jets. The 49ers allowed the 22nd-most fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2023 but Conklin is worth a look as a solid TE2 in PPR leagues for Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been diagnosed with a sprained MCL. Dynasty Analysis: While Love is going to miss some time this season, this really was the best case scenario after what transpired last night. MCL sprains can last anywhere from two-to-twelve weeks, so we still need quite a bit more information before truly evaluating this. Still, the Packers are going to turn to either Malik Willis or Sean Clifford in the short term. As a result, the skill players of the Packers need to be downgraded for as long as Love is out.
