RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (ACL) will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, sidelining him for the first four games. Bourne tore his ACL in Week 8 last year, and it's common for such injuries to require nearly a year for full recovery. Despite the setback, the Patriots rewarded Bourne with a new three-year contract in March, reflecting their belief in his future contributions. Last season, he recorded 37 catches for 406 yards and four touchdowns, averaging a career-best 50.8 receiving yards per game. With Bourne out, receivers Ja'Lynn Polk, Demario Douglas, Javon Baker, K.J. Osborn, and Tyquan Thornton will see increased opportunities. This shift will likely lead to more targets for Douglas, Osborn, and Polk in the early part of the 2024 season.
From RotoBaller
The Minnesota Vikings have placed tight end T.J. Hockenson (ACL) on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) List, meaning he will miss the season's first four games. Hockenson is still recovering from a torn ACL and MCL sustained on December 24 last year. The recovery process was complicated by a delay in his ACL surgery to allow the MCL to heal. Despite the injury cutting his season short, Hockenson had a standout year in 2023, setting career highs with 95 receptions and 960 receiving yards, along with five touchdowns. With T.J. Hockenson sidelined, Johnny Mundt is next on the Vikings' tight-end depth chart. Mundt may see an uptick in snaps, but it's also likely that Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should receive additional targets from Sam Darnold. Hockenson is still worth considering late in drafts, especially if your league has IR slots.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants are waiving wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins, who has accumulated 54 receptions for 581 yards and seven touchdowns during his time in New York. Drafted out of Oregon State by the Buffalo Bills in the sixth round of the 2020 draft, Hodgins was claimed by the Giants two seasons ago and made an immediate impact, recording 33 receptions for 351 yards and four touchdowns. Although he remained productive last season, his role diminished with the addition of younger talent, resulting in just nine starts and 33 targets. While Hodgins shows promise as a possession receiver, his lack of contributions on special teams has likely influenced the decision to waive him. At 25, he should attract interest from teams seeking depth at wide receiver.
From RotoBaller
The Baltimore Ravens are expected to place running back Keaton Mitchell (ACL) on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) List, meaning he will miss the season's first four games. Mitchell, who tore his ACL in a Week 15 win over the Jaguars last season, had an impressive rookie campaign before his injury. Despite being undrafted, he outperformed Melvin Gordon in the preseason and was highly productive, rushing for 396 yards and two touchdowns with a remarkable 8.4 yards per carry. With Mitchell sidelined, the Ravens will rely on new addition Derrick Henry as the primary running back, while Justice Hill will back him up and serve as a change-of-pace option. Henry is expected to dominate touches in this backfield, making him a prime target in early fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers have placed rookie running back Jonathon Brooks (ACL) on the PUP/NFI list, meaning he will miss the season's first four games. Brooks is still recovering from a torn ACL he sustained last November while at Texas. Despite the injury, the Panthers were impressed enough with Brooks to trade up and select him in the second round of the NFL Draft. In Brooks' absence, the Panthers will rely heavily on Chuba Hubbard, who led the backfield last season with 1,135 yards from scrimmage and five total touchdowns over 17 games (12 starts). Veteran Miles Sanders, who had 586 scrimmage yards in 2023, will also be in the mix for touches. Hubbard is a solid late-round pick for those using a "zero RB" strategy, as he should serve as a solid RB1 for Carolina until Brooks returns. If your league has an IR spot, consider targeting Brooks late in drafts for a potential payoff later in the season.
From RotoBaller
The Arizona Cardinals have traded linebacker Cam Thomas to the Kansas City Chiefs for a seventh-round pick. Thomas, who struggled in his second NFL season with no sacks after a rookie year of three, had a standout performance in the Cardinals' second preseason game, recording two sacks, a tackle for loss, and two quarterback hits. With the Chiefs' defensive line missing Charles Omenihu (ACL) for a significant part of the season, Thomas will provide much-needed depth. The Chiefs' defensive line, led by George Karlaftis and Chris Jones, along with role players like Mike Danna, should benefit from Thomas's contributions. This move bolsters the Chiefs' defense, which is expected to be a key fantasy asset again this season.
From RotoBaller
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Green Bay Packers rookie running back MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) will likely start the season on Injured Reserve. If his recovery takes longer than expected, Green Bay could use one of their two pre-cutdown IR spots for him, allowing them to keep Josh Jacobs, AJ Dillon, and Emanuel Wilson on the initial 53-man roster. Wilson has demonstrated reliability as a third running back and can fill in when needed. By placing Lloyd on IR, he could be eligible to return after Week 4, giving him the chance to recover from his challenging hamstring injury fully. Lloyd has potential as Green Bay's future running back and could be the No. 2 option in 2024 once he's healthy. If anything happens to Jacobs this season, he's worth watching as a high-upside lottery ticket.
From RotoBaller
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From TheHuddle
Dynasty | The 49ers have released running back Matt Breida. Dynasty Analysis: The 49ers have Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, and Jordan Mason, so Matt Breida and Ke'Shawn Vaughn (also released) were deemed expendable. Breida had some moments with Miami and New York but seems like a replacement-level running back at this point. He doesn't belong on dynasty rosters at this point.
Dynasty | The Lions have released wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones. Dynasty Analysis: DPJ was traded to Detroit last season in the hopes he could make an impact but he failed to do so. The Lions have a loaded receiving corps, so he was expendable. The former Brown will look to latch on somewhere else but this move doesn't bode well for his dynasty value.
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos are looking to trade running back Samaje Perine. Dynasty Analysis: Perine looks to be the odd man out as Denver is surely keeping Javonte Williams, Audric Estime, Jaleel McLaughlin and maybe even Blake Watson. Perine is likely to garner some interest, though he may need to be released and sign as a free agent should Denver not find a trade partner. Perine isn't roster worthy at this point but could be depending on where he ends up.
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos are trying to trade Tim Patrick. Dynasty Analysis: Denver will reportedly release the veteran wide receiver if they can't find a suitable trade. Patrick is attempting to come back from a torn ACL in 2022 and torn Achilles in 2023 but didn't make enough of an impression for the Broncos to hold on to him. It seems there are a number of teams interested so this story seems to be pretty fluid. Regardless, it's hard to see Patrick carving out meaningful dynasty value, at least in the short term.
Dynasty | The Tennessee Titans have traded quarterback Malik Willis to the Green Bay Packers. Dynasty Analysis: Willis was outplayed by Mason Rudolph in the battle to back up Will Levis in Tennessee but should be good enough to supplant Sean Clifford or Michael Pratt in an effort to back up Jordan Love. Willis is still an intriguing talent but it would take a catastrophe for him to see the field any time soon. He's a tough hold even in a deep 2QB / Superflex draft.
Dynasty | The Dallas Cowboys are bringing in free agent running back Dalvin Cook for a visit. Dynasty Analysis: Cook was famously signed as a free agent by the Jets last year, only to hardly ever see the field, He had a brief stint with the Ravens after being released by New York but failed to make an impact there, either. It's possible the former Viking is simply cooked but Dallas will attempt to see if he has anything left in the tank. His addition would muddy an already convoluted depth chart that features Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, and a host of others. Stay tuned.
Dynasty | The Steelers have released running back Daijun Edwards. Dynasty Analysis: The former Georgia Bulldog looked to have a fighting chance to make the roster but just couldn't make enough progress for the Steelers to keep him on their initial 53. He'll have a good chance to make a practice squad somewhere but he's now clearly off the dynasty radar.
Dynasty | The Bucs have placed running back Chase Edmonds on injured reserve. Dynasty Analysis: He could still be activated at some point but this is bad news for his dynasty outlook in 2024. Tampa Bay looks to be rolling with Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker to start the year and it's hard to see Edmonds making much of an impact, even if he does come back. He's clearly droppable in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | The Ravens have released wide receiver Russell Gage. Dynasty Analysis: Gage was attempted to re-ignite his career in a thin Baltimore receiving corps but it obviously didn't work out. The former Falcon and Buccaneer should land on his feet as a veteran presence somewhere in the league but his dynasty relevance just isn't enough to merit a roster spot.
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From TheHuddle
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From TheHuddle
