RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
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- Week 10 Inactives
Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones (chest) returned late in the fourth quarter of Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He had initially exited the game and was listed as questionable, but was able to check back into the contest for the final offensive drive. He finished Week 10 with 17 rushes for 88 yards on the ground. He also caught two of three targets for an additional 13 yards through the air. Jones will rank as a mid-to-high RB2 heading into next week's game against a strong Tennessee Titans run defense.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed 28 of 42 pass attempts (67%) for 266 yards and a touchdown in the 16-14 win over the Denver Broncos. Mahomes had his lone touchdown in the second quarter on a two-yard pass to Travis Kelce. The Chiefs quarterback was nearly handed his first loss of the season but was saved on a last-second blocked field goal by the Kansas City defense. After two straight games with multiple touchdown passes, Mahomes was held back by the Denver defense. The Chiefs remain undefeated heading into their Week 11 matchup with the Buffalo Bills. The Bills rank seventh in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season, so Mahomes may have another tough matchup next week. Mahomes had nearly 16 fantasy points in a four-point per passing touchdown format this week and has passed for over 260 yards for the fourth time in the last five games. Mahomes has not displayed the high-end fantasy quarterback play he was drafted for, but he has been more usable lately. Fantasy managers should view Mahomes as a low-end QB1 heading into Week 11.
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Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones (chest) exited during the second half of Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He is officially questionable to return. At the time of his departure, Jones had tallied 13 carries for 71 rushing yards, plus an additional two catches for 13 yards through the air. Ty Chandler and Cam Akers will handle ball-carrying duties for Minnesota until Jones is healthy enough to return.
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Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) is doubtful to return against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10. Kincaid exited in the third quarter. Assuming his day is done, Kincaid finishes Sunday's contest with five targets but just two catches and 24 receiving yards. The second-year tight end has been held to single-digit fantasy points in 70 percent of his games this season and will likely fall out of the TE1 tier going forward. Even if he's healthy enough to play next week against the Kansas City Chiefs, fantasy managers can justify benching him.
From RotoBaller
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers believe that left tackle Tristan Wirfs (knee) suffered an MCL sprain during Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. Wirfs had only missed three snaps over the first nine weeks of the season, but it now sounds like he's bracing for an extended absence. The good news is that MCL sprains typically aren't season-ending, and depending on the severity, it's possible that he actually avoids an injured reserve stint. Nevertheless, losing Wirfs for any period of time is far from ideal for Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and the rest of Tampa Bay's offense. With that said, Tampa Bay should have confidence in its backup left tackle, Justin Skule, temporarily taking over on the end of the offensive line.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends Khalil Mack (groin) and Joey Bosa (hip) are officially active for Week 10 against the Tennessee Titans. Both players had been listed as questionable. Mack is suiting up despite missing all three days of practice this week. He hasn't missed a game this season, amassing 26 tackles, 4.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery through eight contests. Bosa, meanwhile, was limited in practice all week long. Injuries have held him to reduced snap counts all season long, and he's still looking to return to his Week 1 form. In that season opener, he played 40 percent of the defensive snaps, registering seven tackles, one sack, and one forced fumble. Perhaps this week's game against subpar quarterback Will Levis will be a great opportunity for Bosa to get back on track.
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Tennessee Titans running back Julius Chestnut (foot) is officially active for Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Chargers. He had been listed as questionable after logging a limited practice on Friday. Chestnut saw additional opportunities over the last few weeks with Tyjae Spears (hamstring) inactive. However, now that Spears is healthy, Chestnut will return to the No. 3 running back role in Tennessee, keeping him off the fantasy radar in all leagues.
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Los Angeles Chargers running back Kimani Vidal (coach's decision) and tight end Stone Smartt (ankle) are both inactive for Week 10 against the Tennessee Titans. Vidal had not appeared on the injury report but is evidently the odd man out now that Gus Edwards has rejoined the backfield following an injured reserve stint. Vidal totaled 93 scrimmage yards and one touchdown in his four-game run as J.K. Dobbins' backup. Smartt, meanwhile, had been listed as questionable after logging three consecutive limited practices. He has just two catches this season, remaining a non-factor in fantasy football. In his absence, Tucker Fisk will step up as the Chargers' No. 3 tight end behind Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst.
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Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards (ankle) is officially active for Sunday's game against the Tennessee Titans. He had been listed as questionable but was expected to play after being activated from injured reserve on Saturday. Edwards spent the minimum four games on injured reserve and is now back for his first contest since Week 4. Through the first four weeks of the season, he had mustered just 38 carries for 113 yards (2.97 YPC) in the No. 2 running back role behind J.K. Dobbins. Edwards is an uninspiring handcuff option and will not have any fantasy appeal as long as Dobbins is healthy.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers left tackle Tristan Wirfs (knee) has been ruled out for the remainder of the game against the San Francisco 49ers. The fifth-year All-Pro has been one the most consistently healthy linemen on the team and an important piece to the pass protection. With Wirfs out against one of the better defensive units, it could mean even more trouble for Baker Mayfield with a thin receiver corps. Justin Skule is the next man up on the depth chart.
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Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs (calf, illness) and linebacker Micah Parsons (ankle) are officially active for Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Both players had been listed as questionable. Diggs had missed practice on Friday but was widely expected to play this weekend. He has 31 tackles and one interception this season. The 26-year-old will be tasked with slowing down the connection between quarterback Jalen Hurts and his top receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Parsons, meanwhile, is returning to play in his first game since Week 4 against the New York Giants. The star 25-year-old had amassed 14 tackles and one sack through his first four games. His return provides a major boost to Dallas' defense ahead of this week's divisional contest.
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Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jonathan Mingo (coach's decision) is inactive for Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles. He had not appeared on the injury report. However, given that Mingo was acquired from the Carolina Panthers just five days ago, we can assume that he simply needs more time to learn Dallas' system. CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Tolbert will continue to be the top wide receivers in the Cowboys' Cooper Rush-led offense.
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Chicago Bears offensive lineman Teven Jenkins (ankle) is considered questionable to return to their game against the New England Patriots. The fourth-year guard appeared on the injury report leading up to this contest with a knee injury but was cleared to participate until he suffered the ankle injury in the first half. The next left guard on the depth chart is on IR, so they'll have to shuffle around the line who is already struggling to protect Caleb Williams.
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Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) left Sunday's game against the Indianapolis Colts in the first half due to a knee injury. At the time, he accounted for two receptions for 24 yards on four targets. The team has officially deemed him questionable to return to the game, so they'll likely perform some tests through halftime to see if he can take the field in the second half. Dawson Knox should see an uptick in snaps and targets while Kincaid is sidelined.
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New York Giants wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson led the team in receiving yards in Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany, hauling in five catches for 51 yards on eight targets. Robinson averaged a solid 10.2 yards per reception, including a 23-yard catch that showcased he can catch deeper passes. He made a few key first-down catches to keep drives alive, showing his value as a reliable option in the Giants' passing game. While he didn't reach the end zone and finished with 7.6 fantasy points, Robinson's consistent reception totals make him a potential fantasy asset in deeper leagues.
From RotoBaller
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From RotoBaller
New York Giants tight end Theo Johnson continued to build on his momentum in Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany, catching four passes for 37 yards on six targets. Averaging 9.3 yards per reception with a 13-yard long catch, Johnson showcased his reliable presence in the Giants' offense. Coming off a breakout Week 9 performance that saw him score his first career touchdown, Johnson has emerged as the team's most dependable tight end option. While he didn't reach the end zone this week and finished with only 5.7 fantasy points, his consistent target share and solid yardage suggest a growing role that fantasy managers should keep an eye on as he becomes a go-to option for quarterback Daniel Jones.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. turned in an impressive ground performance in Sunday's 20-17 overtime loss to the Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany, rushing for 103 yards on 18 carries with a touchdown. Tracy's dynamic 5.7 yards per carry, including a 32-yard burst, provided a spark for the Giants' offense and kept them competitive throughout. However, his strong outing was marred by a costly fumble on the Giants' opening drive in overtime, which the Panthers recovered and quickly converted into a game-winning field goal. With 14.9 fantasy points, Tracy showed his potential as a lead back, though his late-game miscue underscores the need for ball security.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had a challenging day in Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany, completing 22 of 37 passes for 190 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Jones struggled to find a rhythm in the first half, missing multiple open targets and throwing for just 54 yards, including a costly red-zone interception. Despite his rough outing through the air, Jones salvaged some fantasy value with a rushing touchdown and 26 yards on the ground, finishing with 14.2 fantasy points. He took two sacks and averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt, underscoring his difficulties moving the offense. Jones' inconsistency remains a concern for fantasy managers, as turnovers and missed opportunities continue to limit his upside.
From RotoBaller
