RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 10
Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson is no longer a surefire top-10 ranked tight end on a weekly basis with quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) set to miss at least four games. Ferguson has yet to score a touchdown in 2024 and while he should serve as backup quarterback Cooper Rush's security blanket, his upside takes a hit. Philadelphia has the fourth-best defense against opposing tight ends this season, further muddying the situation for Ferguson. He grades as a low-end TE1 this week and can still be started in most situations, but his ceiling is capped.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey has slowed down fantasy-wise after his hot start to the season as the offense has sputtered in recent weeks. Aubrey faces a tough matchup in Week 10 against a strong Eagles' defense. With quarterback Cooper Rush under center, the offense may take another step back and field goal opportunities could be limited. Aubrey can still be started, but fantasy managers may want to look elsewhere for their kicker in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys' defense has severely underperformed in 2024 with many key players missing time. Heading into a Week 10 matchup with a surging Philadelphia Eagles offense, it appears that Micah Parsons (ankle) may return after logging limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday. Even with Parsons back in the lineup, this unit is still beaten up and should be avoided for fantasy purposes this week.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott was held out of the Week 9 loss due to disciplinary reasons, but the veteran is expected back in the lineup for Week 10's matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles. Elliott is completely off the fantasy radar after ceding the lead-back role to Rico Dowdle. Furthermore, Philadelphia's defense ranks third against opposing running backs. Elliott can be left on the waiver wire and should not be in any lineups this week.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert scored a touchdown in last week's loss, connecting with backup quarterback Cooper Rush late in the game. Week 10's matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles is not an easy one, with wide receivers scoring the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game against Philadelphia's secondary. CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) has been a limited participant in practice this week and is trending towards playing, meaning Tolbert is not guaranteed a safe target volume. He should not be started this week with Cooper Rush under center.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush has been thrust into the starting role with Dak Prescott (hamstring) headed to injured reserve. The 30-year-old career backup has played well in place of Prescott in the past, but Sunday's matchup against a stingy Philadelphia secondary is not the spot to trust him in. Rush grades as a high-end QB3 this week and can be considered as a QB2 option in deep leagues.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle has captured the lead role in the backfield over the past few weeks, but the offense may lose some efficiency with quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) set to miss at least the next four games. Dowdle should see significant volume coming off of an RB1 finish a week ago, but the matchup against Philadelphia's third-ranked run defense is far from ideal. He can be considered a flex option with a fairly lower floor than usual this week.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Nelson Agholor grabbed his second touchdown in three games during the comeback win over the Bengals on Thursday. The veteran finished with one reception for a six-yard score on two targets. He continues to be a touchdown-dependent fantasy option who is only relevant in very deep leagues. With the addition of Diontae Johnson, Agholor moves to the third or fourth receiver, so fantasy managers shouldn't expect him to score every week. The Ravens will go up against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals running back Khalil Herbert was traded from Chicago on Tuesday before the trade deadline. It was surprising that the team activated him for his first game after just two days of practice. He only played 2% of the offensive snaps and didn't register any touches in the box score. He did fumble the hand-off on one play but was able to recover it. He'll have some extra time with the team and the playbook as the Bengals take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers received plenty of attention from the Cincinnati Bengals' defense on Thursday night. Flowers received the third-most targets with six of them and finished with four receptions for 34 yards. A lot of his opportunities were short-to-mid throws which explains the average of 8.4 yards per catch. While the defense keyed on Flowers, the other pass-catchers got free for plenty of yards and touchdowns. The speedy wideout will look to bounce back against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews went into Thursday night with the hope of more snaps and involvement and cashed in during the 35-34 victory. With Isaiah Likely (hamstring) sidelined, Andrews received seven targets which he turned into six receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown. This was his second-best output of the season and his highest snap share of the year with 87%. Whenever Likely is out, Andrews gains some big-time fantasy value and becomes a borderline must-start. He'll look to replicate this performance in Week 11 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman continues the best season of his career as he caught another touchdown pass in the Week 10 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. The former first-round pick finished with six receptions for 54 yards and a score on eight targets. Bateman is now 14 yards shy of his career-high for receiving yards in a single season and has done so with 15 fewer receptions so far. He's starting to turn a corner and become the big-play receiver that the Ravens hoped he would be. His next chance to score will be against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Tylan Wallace broke out for the best game of his career on Thursday night in the 35-34 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The 25-year-old finished the contest with three receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown on three targets. He produced a game-changing moment when he caught a sideline pass from Lamar Jackson, broke a tackle, and ran down the field to complete an 84-yard touchdown play at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Wallace has the speed to break off some big plays, but he's fourth on the depth chart at best. He'll try to shake free again in Week 11 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry seemed like he was headed for a fantasy dud as the offense couldn't get much going during the first half on Thursday night. Luckily, Henry scored on a goalline run towards the end of the third quarter and salvaged his fantasy week for many managers. He ended the game with 68 yards and one score on 16 carries with one reception for three yards. The only threat to Henry's fantasy output is the defense allowing tons of points to force games into a shootout. He'll try to find some running room against the Steelers in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson continues his marvelous season as he led the team to a comeback win over their AFC North rivals on Thursday night. In the 35-34 win, Jackson registered 290 yards and four touchdowns while throwing 25-for-33 and adding 33 yards on seven carries. The offense had a slow start to the game but put 28 points in the second half including a 21-point fourth quarter. Jackson completed passes to nine different receivers while delivering touchdown strikes to four of them. He's already tied his passing touchdown mark from last season in six fewer games while he tries to go for even more against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) has been limited all week at practice due to a shoulder injury. According to Ian Rapoport, the former number-one overall pick is unlikely to play against the Vikings in Week 10. While he hasn't been ruled out officially, Rapoport points to the fact that Lawrence has been very limited this week leading up to their game. If he's unable to suit up, backup Mac Jones would step in and make his first start since Week 12 of the 2023 season. A clearer picture will be available after the injury report comes out on Friday.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (ankle) was forced to leave Thursday night's game after making an awkward plant on his right foot. He did not return to the game, but Ian Rapoport is now saying that the star safety suffered an ankle sprain and it's not considered serious. With how bad the Ravens' defense has been, losing Hamilton for any amount of time would have been a devastating hit. He'll get a few extra days to prepare for Week 11, but his status will be something to monitor throughout next week.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki had four catches for 30 yards in Thursday's loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The veteran had two touchdowns in the win over the Raiders in Week 9. However, he cooled off significantly on Thursday. Granted, he had nine targets from Joe Burrow. Still, fantasy managers were disappointed with the end result. With the Bengals sitting on a 4-6 record, the team will look to rebound in Week 11 against a capable Chargers defense. Gesicki should be viewed as a risky, high-upside fantasy option for that one, although his outlook won't be as favorable if Tee Higgins (quadriceps) is back on the field.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals tight end Tanner Hudson had 42 yards and a touchdown off six catches in Thursday's loss to the Ravens. With Erick All Jr. (knee) done for the remainder of the 2024-25 campaign, Hudson had a chance to get more involved behind Mike Gesicki. He made the most of his opportunity, although Cincinnati couldn't pull off a win. Hudson easily had his best showing of the season on Thursday. However, the 29-year-old still has more work to do before earning a spot in fantasy lineups moving ahead.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow played well in Thursday's narrow loss to the Baltimore Ravens. While he wasn't as potent as he was when these clubs last met, he still threw for 428 yards and four touchdowns off 34-for-56 passing. Outside of two fumbles, the signal-caller did his part on Thursday night. However, the Bengals defense allowed the Ravens to overcome a 14-point deficit and eventually take the lead halfway through the fourth quarter. But as far as Burrow is concerned, he continues to have an MVP-caliber season. With that in mind, Cincinnati will get some extra time off before taking the field again versus a capable Chargers defense in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
