RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 1
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: Injury Status: Week 1
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: Lineup Prep: Week 1
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: Five Late-Round Gambles
- FANTASY EXCLUSIVE: The Weekly Bender: Late Round Picks for Your Late August Drafts
- Patrick Mahomes becomes Chiefs' all-time leader in passing yards
- Rams place veteran CB Darious Williams (hamstring) on IR
- Chiefs sign TE Noah Gray to 3-year contract extension
- Ranking 24 MVP candidates in '24
- Aaron Rodgers ready for Take 2 with Jets: ‘In a good mind space’
- Steelers QB Russell Wilson limited due to calf tightness
- TNF Week 1: Ravens-Chiefs Preview, Props, Prediction
- NFL's lone holdout, LB Haason Reddick, not ruled out by Jets
- Week 1 watch list: Ranking every game from must-see to hard pass
- Commanders fire VP of content for comments on players, Jerry Jones
- QB Bo Nix named first Broncos rookie captain since 1967
- Eagles CB Darius Slay apologizes for Brazil comment
- Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins (knee) returns to practice
- Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase returns to practice field
- Commanders sign G Sam Cosmi to 4-year extension
- Bills name Damar Hamlin starting safety for Week 1
- Falcons TE Kyle Pitts, LB Nate Landman nursing injuries
- Fast friends Raheem Morris, Mike Tomlin start Week 1 with gamesmanship
- Suspect in shooting of 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall to appear in court
- Colts preparing backup with PK Matt Gay injured
- Fantasy Six Pack: NFL DFS Week 1 Stacks and Value Plays
- Fantasy Six Pack: NFL Week 1 Best Bets | Tomlin’s Tips
- Fantasy Six Pack: Chris Godwin To Feast | 2024 Fantasy Football Sit-Start Week 1
- Fantasy Six Pack: ul Starting Cameron Heyward | 2024 IDP Start-Sit Week 1
- Fantasy Life: An RB Workload on a Game-by-Game Basis?
- Fantasy Life: Fantasy Football Injury Report: Seven Key Players to Watch for Week 1
- Fantasy Life: Fantasy Football Regression Candidates: Kyren Williams Down?
- Fantasy Life: Underdog Battle Royale Primer: Five Week 1 DFS Tips
- Fantasy Life: NFL Week 1 Pick’em Plays: Full Cards for Underdog, PrizePicks and Sleeper
- Fantasy Life: Anytime Touchdown Bets for Week 1: Will New Coaching Unleash Kenneth Walker?
The Paur Report
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (hamstring) was a limited participant at practice on Wednesday and then practiced in full on Thursday. As reported by D. Orlando Ledbetter, Pitts says that he'll be 100% ready to go on Sunday in their contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The 23-year-old is entering a very important season in his career now that he has a quarterback with more throwing ability than any other one he played with so far. Expectations are higher for Pitts and the Falcons offense as a whole, so the fact that he says he should be 100% healthy is encouraging. With this news, fantasy managers should be more comfortable playing him against the Steelers as he tries to get back to big receiving numbers like his rookie season.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles) was officially placed on the team's injury report on Thursday, but it seems like he's on track to still play in Week 1. According to Ian Rapoport, the superstar back "should be fine" to suit up against the New York Jets on Monday night. It also helps that he gets one more day to get some rest and work out the calf and Achilles issues. This is huge news for all of the fantasy managers that spent a top-three pick on the RB1 from last season, especially with the 49ers backup, Elijah Mitchell (hamstring), out for the season. With McCaffrey likely in the lineup, fantasy managers will be able to start him with confidence as long as there aren't any setbacks before Monday.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely posted a huge performance in the 20-27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday and almost became the game's savior. The 24-year-old saw 12 targets in the season opener and caught nine of them for 111 yards and a touchdown. His biggest play of the night came during the first snap of the fourth quarter when Likely caught a pass from a scrambling Lamar Jackson, ran down the sideline with some shifty moves, and walked into the end zone for a 49-yard score. Then, with time running out, Likely hauled in a difficult catch in the back of the end zone for what everyone thought was a touchdown. After a video review, it showed that his toe was on the end line and it was unfortunately waved off. As far as the first game goes, Likely seemed to be the TE1 on the team while Mark Andrews only saw two targets.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Ravens tight end Mark Andrews had just two catches for 14 yards in Baltimore's season-opening loss to the Chiefs. Dynasty Analysis: It's not time to panic with Andrews but let's just say we're at DEFCON 3 at the moment. First, Andrews didn't look completely healthy, thought that could be debatable. More importantly, Isaiah Likely looks like a player ready to take on a much bigger role this year, possibly eating into the target share of Andrews. A solid week two will get dynasty managers off the ledge but this was a concerning look on offense for anyone deploying Andrews at tight end.
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice caught seven passes for 103 yards on nine targets in the 27-20 win against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. Rice came out and proved what many believed to be the case, he is the WR1 for the Chiefs. The 24-year-old paced the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in this contest against a strong Ravens defense. Rice could continuously find soft spots in the secondary and connect with Mahomes to move the chains. While he finished without a touchdown in this contest, fantasy managers should be excited about this strong performance. Rice will build on this performance in Week 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers last year, so Rice is in a good spot. It will be interesting to see how his target share is impacted by the anticipated arrival of Marquise Brown next week, but Rice should still be the top dog in this Mahomes-led offense.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy had two catches for 47 yards and a touchdown in the 27-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. The first-round rookie wasted no time making his mark in this game as he had a 21-yard touchdown rush on the Chiefs first drive. Worthy scored his second touchdown on a 35-yard strike from Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter. The rookie with record-breaking speed had 68 total yards and two touchdowns on just three touches in this contest. It was an exciting start to Worthy's career, and fantasy managers should be hopeful for his future in the Kansas City offense. Worthy and the Chiefs will face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2. The Bengals allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers in 2023, so Worthy could be in for another big game. Worthy will likely have to compete with another receiver, Marquise Brown, in Week 2, but the rookie should see his whole in the offense expand as the season goes on. Worthy should be considered a high-upside flex play moving forward.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce ended the night with three catches for 34 yards on four targets in the Chiefs 27-20 win against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. Kelce is a focal point of the Chiefs offense, but he was not a difference-maker in this contest. Kelce did not see a single target until halfway through the second quarter. The star tight end finished the game with four targets, good for second-most on the team, but was fourth in receiving yards. The tough Baltimore defense likely learned from their mistakes in the 2023 AFC Championship game, when Kelce had 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. The 34-year-old may be a declining talent while the rest of the Chiefs offense around him is ascending, but it will take more than one bad game to reach that conclusion. Kelce will get a chance to bounce back in Week 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals gave up the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends in 2023. Kelce will still be ranked as a TE1 until proven otherwise.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 28 passes (71.4%) for 291 yards and a touchdown in the 27-20 win against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. Mahomes threw his first touchdown of the season in the fourth quarter of this game. He connected with first-round rookie Xavier Worthy for a 35-yard catch and run for the score. In the second quarter, Mahomes became the Kansas City Chiefs' all-time leader in passing yards on a pass to Travis Kelce. The Chiefs quarterback also threw an interception towards the end of the second quarter on a pass intended for Rashee Rice. Mahomes did enough to edge the Ravens in this contest despite the pedestrian stats. Mahomes will look to continue the Chiefs' winning streak against the Cincinnati Bengals next week. The Bengals allowed the 12th-most points per game to opposing offenses last season and have a high-powered offense, so their Week 2 matchup should be full of scoring. Mahomes will again be a strong QB1 next week despite his mediocre output this week.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco had 45 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries in the 27-20 win against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. The Baltimore defense came to play as they held Pacheco to just 3.0 yards per carry in this contest. Pacheco's longest run of the game gained only five yards, but he still managed to find the endzone on a one-yard run in the third quarter. Despite his low rushing yardage in this one, the Chiefs lead running back still handled 15 of the 20 total carries for the team. Pacheco also corralled two of his three targets for 33 receiving yards in this contest. Pacheco is undoubtedly the lead back on this high-powered Kansas City offense and should be more productive in this role moving forward. The Chiefs take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2. The Bengals gave up the seventh-most rushing yards per game in 2023. Pacheco will have a chance to bounce back on the ground in addition to his contributions in the receiving game.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster was targeted once and did not have a catch against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, Sept. 5.
From TheHuddle
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce caught three of his four targeted passes for 34 yards during the team's Week 1 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
From TheHuddle
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes went 20-for-28 for 291 yards, one touchdown, and one interception against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, Sept. 5. Mahomes also ran twice for three yards and caught his own deflected pass for a two-yard gain.
From TheHuddle
Baltimore Ravens LB Roquan Smith had a team-leading seven tackles, including four solo tackles and a tackle for loss, a pass defensed, and an interception versus the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1.
From TheHuddle
Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews had two receptions (on two targets) for 14 yards during the club's Week 1 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Fantasy Spin: It's far too early to be concerned about Andrews, but watching Isaiah Likely serve as the Ravens' go-to guy on offense is definitely something to keep an eye on in Week 2. For the moment, stay the course with Andrews and be ready to plug him into your TE1 slot versus the Raiders.
From TheHuddle
Dynasty | Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely had nine catches for 111 yards and one touchdown in the Ravens season-opening loss against the Chiefs. Dynasty Analysis: Anyone who watched the game also knows he was one inch away from an even bigger night as his last second touchdown was called back after it was deemed his toe was out of bounds on the game-tying catch. Dynasty managers won't complain much as all the hype we've been hearing all off-season about Likely being a big part of this offense have proven to be more than just puff pieces. Likely will be climbing up the rankings this week.
Dynasty | Ravens running back Derrick Henry had 46 rushing yards and a touchdown in the Ravens season-opening loss to the Chiefs. Dynasty Analysis: Henry salvaged his night with a touchdown but was otherwise a non-factor as the Chiefs defensive line manhandled the Ravens offensive unit. There will be better days ahead for Henry but this performance showed he's going to be a thumper but a non-factor in the passing game, making him a bit of a boom or bust option each week.
Dynasty | Chiefs rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy had two catches for 47 yards and added 21 rushing yards with two touchdowns in his NFL debut. Dynasty Analysis: He certainly made the most of his four touches on the night. Worthy could battle some bouts of inconsistency this season but it's clear he adds a new dynamic to the Kansas City offense. In short, Worthy looks the part of a first round rookie pick, though he likely won't quite hit his current pace of 34 touchdowns (tongue in cheek).
Dynasty | Rashee Rice led Kansas City with seven catches for 103 yards in the Chiefs opening night win against Baltimore. Dynasty Analysis: Rice looked the part of the Chiefs clear WR1 from the start as his nine targets were five more than any other Chiefs player. Rice is clearly under a dynasty microscope this year as we await his NFL suspension but it's also clear he's on the way to a possible breakout season. Buckle up.
Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry tallied 13 carries for 46 yards (3.5 YPC) and a touchdown versus the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday, Sept. 5. Henry was targeted twice in the passing game but did not register a reception.
From TheHuddle
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson completed 26 of his 41 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown during the team's Week 1 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Jackson also ran the ball 16 times for a game-high 122 yards. The 16 rushing attempts were his most in a single game since Nov. 28, 2021.
From TheHuddle
