Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 10
Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker will face the Denver Broncos in Week 10. Butker nailed all four kicks in Week 9 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chiefs kicker split the goalposts on his only extra-point attempt and all three field goal attempts, with a long of 40 yards in the contest. Butker has now gone three straight games without missing a single kick. The Chiefs taking on the Broncos could mean more opportunities for Butker this week. The Denver defense is a strong unit, which could prevent Kansas City from scoring many touchdowns in this contest. The Chiefs may rely upon Butker more this week as he has not had more than two field goal attempts in a game since Week 5. Butker is ranked sixth-best kicker in our RotoBaller rankings this week, so fantasy managers should continue starting him.
From RotoBaller
The Kansas City Chiefs defense will take on the Denver Broncos in Week 10. The Kansas City defense gave up 24 points last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but still managed to rack up two sacks. The Chiefs have collected 17 sacks in eight games this season, but that may be difficult in Week 10. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has been sacked 15 times this season, fewer times than Patrick Mahomes has been brought down. Nix has shown his ability as a rusher this season, ranking fifth in rushing yards among quarterbacks. That said, Kansas City has been among the best defenses at stopping the run, and they're aware of Nix's rushing ability. If the Chiefs continue their run-stopping ways, they should be able to contain the Broncos offense. The Chiefs former first-round pick, George Karlaftis, was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice but practiced fully the rest of the week and does not carry an injury designation heading into the contest. Karlaftis is a vital piece of the defensive unit, so it's positive news that he has been removed from the injury report. This week, the Kansas City defense is ranked as the fourth-best defense in our RotoBaller rankings, so they are among the best options. Fantasy managers should start them confidently.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt will face the Denver Broncos in Week 10. Hunt is coming off another solid performance, totaling 106 yards and a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Hunt played a vital role in the Chiefs 30-24 overtime win, as he was the one who crossed the goal line to end it. The Chiefs lead back will take on the Broncos, who rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this season. The Denver defense is tougher on the pass than the run, so Hunt should see another sizeable workload in this contest. Hunt logged a limited practice on Wednesday with a quad injury but practiced fully the rest of the week and does not have an injury designation for the game. Hunt is ranked RB16 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings this week, making him a high-end RB2 option in this matchup. Expect Hunt to get at least 20 carries again in this contest with a good chance of finding the endzone.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins will match up against the Denver Broncos in Week 10. Hopkins had a strong performance in his first full game as a Kansas City Chief last week. The veteran receiver hauled in eight catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 9 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are among the most favorable matchups for wide receivers, but Hopkins will not be so fortunate this week. The Broncos rank ninth in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season, so Hopkins will likely have less success in this matchup. Hopkins will often face All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II in this contest, limiting his upside. That said, Hopkins is ranked WR18 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR ranking this week. Fantasy managers should start Hopkins as a mid-tier WR2 this week despite the matchup.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy will face the Denver Broncos in Week 10. Worthy is coming off his worst performance of the season in Week 9 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite the favorable matchup against Tampa Bay, the rookie receiver finished the game with zero catches and negative yardage. Worthy should have scored on a deep ball in the first quarter but did not get both feet down in bounds. It was the first game of Worthy's career that he did not register a single reception. The good news is it's only up from here. The bad news is the Broncos rank ninth in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season. Worthy needs to demonstrate his ability to be a reliable pass catcher to become a relevant option in the Kansas City offense, but he has not done that yet. Worthy is ranked WR40 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings this week, placing him firmly in the flex range. Fantasy managers should view the Chiefs rookie as nothing more than a desperation flex option in this matchup.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will take on the Denver Broncos in Week 10. Mahomes is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season, passing for 291 yards and three touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers defense has allowed huge performances to opposing offenses all season, so this week will be more challenging for the Chiefs quarterback. The Denver Broncos rank sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season, making them one of the toughest matchups. Mahomes has been trending up in the past few weeks, and that trend could continue as he builds more chemistry with DeAndre Hopkins. Mahomes found himself on the injury report earlier this week with an ankle injury but practiced fully all week and does not have an injury designation for the game. Mahomes is ranked QB10 in our RotoBaller rankings this week, making him a low-end QB1 in this matchup. Given his recent success, fantasy managers should start Mahomes this week but temper expectations in a difficult matchup.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce will take on the Denver Broncos in Week 10. Kelce is coming off a season-best performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9. The veteran tight end had 14 catches on 16 targets for 100 yards in the 30-24 overtime win. Kelce will transition from facing one of the most favorable matchups to one of the toughest. The Broncos rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends this season, so Kelce will have his work cut out for him. That said, Kelce is among the few elite tight ends with a strong guaranteed workload every week. Kelce is ranked TE2 in our RotoBaller Half-PPR rankings this week in a difficult matchup, but fantasy managers should feel great about starting him every week.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall is in Tampa for a Week 10 matchup against the Buccaneers on Sunday. The 31st-overall pick in the 2024 draft will be playing in just his third game as a pro after an impressively short recovery from being shot in the chest as the victim of an armed robbery. Pearsall has a bright future but will be running as a third receiver this week with Deebo Samuel Sr. (rib/oblique) and Jauan Jennings (hip) expected to play. The 49ers are also welcoming back Christian McCaffrey (Achilles), and tight end George Kittle is healthy so targets will be hard to come by. Tampa Bay's pass defense hasn't been good, so the matchup is there for deeper-league managers looking to strike gold, but Pearsall should be considered a WR4 on Sunday, considering San Francisco's expected hierarchy.
From RotoBaller
The New England Patriots defense remains an unreliable fantasy option heading into Week 10 against the Chicago Bears and their No. 1 pick quarterback, Caleb Williams. The Patriots' defense has several playmakers, but the unit's productivity has been underwhelming so far. New England has forced just five turnovers through nine weeks while allowing an average of 23.4 points per game. Even against the Bears and Williams, who has seven turnovers this year, the Patriots' defense cannot be trusted to make a real impact. They've tallied the eight-fewest fantasy points among D/ST units and remains off the radar this Sunday.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry has been quite productive lately and, as a result, is firmly positioned on the fantasy radar for Week 10 against the Chicago Bears. Over the last four weeks, with most of his targets coming from Drake Maye, the veteran tight end is averaging 5.8 catches, 58.5 receiving yards, and 0.3 touchdowns per game. The Patriots haven't had a whole lot of scoring opportunities, but their tendency to play from behind has created extra opportunities and targets for the team's pass catchers, including Henry. He's a firm TE1 option slated to command a large target share once again on Sunday.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has struggled with ball security lately, totaling four interceptions and two lost fumbles during his three full games under center. Despite turnover issues, Maye has maintained his role among the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks, throwing for six touchdown passes and rushing for 209 yards so far this year. This week, he faces the Bears, whose secondary has been quite impressive in 2024. Chicago has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns and the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Nevertheless, Maye's rushing upside and touchdown tendencies make up for his tough matchup and poor ball security. He remains a low-end fantasy QB1 versus Chicago.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings (hip) will return from a two-game absence when the team takes on the Buccaneers in Tampa on Sunday. In his last time on the field -- in Seattle -- Jennings was targeted five times, finishing with three receptions for 27 yards. The targets tied Deebo Samuel Sr. for the wide receiver team lead, even with a pre-injury Brandon Aiyuk on the field. With Aiyuk out for the season, Jennings has a golden opportunity in front of him to become a fantasy contributor down the stretch. The matchup for 49ers receivers this week is good as the Bucs have allowed the seventh-most WR fantasy points this season. Consider Jennings a viable WR3/FLEX option in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots kicker Joey Slye cannot be trusted in fantasy football ahead of his Week 10 matchup versus the Chicago Bears. Slye had a brief stretch of solid performances early in the year, but he has settled back into mediocrity while struggling with accuracy here and there. All in all, he is 13-for-13 on extra points and 12-for-15 on field goals. He missed a kick as recently as last week. In general, scoring opportunities have been tough to come by for the Patriots, and Slye is no exception. Even in a relatively favorable matchup against the Bears, Slye belongs on fantasy waivers.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots wide receiver DeMario Douglas hasn't been the most consistent contributor this season, but he has generally been trending in the right direction ever since the team installed rookie Drake Maye as its starting quarterback. Douglas has six-plus catches in four of his last seven games, including a seven-catch, 35-yard showing just last Sunday against the Tennessee Titans. Douglas isn't a major yardage producer, but he has trustworthy hands and commands plenty of volume within the Patriots' offense. Although the 23-year-old is trending up, he gets a very unfavorable matchup this week in the form of the Bears. Chicago has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers like Douglas, so even if New England finds itself playing from behind, the receiver could have trouble overcoming strong coverage from the Bears' secondary. Douglas has volume-based WR3 upside in PPR leagues, but his floor is also quite low.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason will return to a backup role in Week 10 when the team takes on the Buccaneers in Tampa. The undrafted third-year pro did an impressive job filling in for All-Pro Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) over the 49ers' first five games, averaging 15.9 half-PPR points before suffering a lingering shoulder sprain in Week 6 and ceding much of his subsequent work to rookie Isaac Guerendo. While Mason won't be completely locked out of action with the return of McCaffrey on Sunday since San Francisco is likely to ease the latter back into action to some degree, the Niners have established a preference for using their RB1 almost exclusively. As long as CMC remains healthy, Mason reverts to a top handcuff/stash, while Guerendo falls off the fantasy map entirely. Hang on to Mason if at all possible, but leave him on the bench in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy will be in Tampa for a Week 10 showdown against the Buccaneers on Sunday. The last time we saw Purdy, he earned a Week 8 30-24 victory over the Dallas Cowboys at home. The former Iowa State Cyclone looked sharp in that game, posting 26.3 fantasy points. Purdy has a juicy matchup coming out of the bye, as Tampa Bay's defense is ranked dead-last in QB fantasy points allowed in Yahoo default scoring. Though Purdy will be without Brandon Aiyuk (knee) for the remainder of the year, there are no other excuses for San Francisco's passing attack to stall in this one, as Christian McCaffrey (Achilles), Deebo Samuel (rib/oblique), and Jauan Jennings (hip) are all likely to play. The Bucs are leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks -- part of why they've been such a friendly matchup -- and Purdy has been on a bit of a ground-game heater. He's averaging 26.3 yards per game this season, nearly triple 2023's mark, and has rushed for three touchdowns in his last two games. However, McCaffrey's return is likely to stymie that trend. Regardless, Purdy is a solid fantasy starter in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson will look to break out of a recent slump as the team heads to Munich to face the Carolina Panthers in Week 10. Robinson has struggled over the past three weeks, including a three-catch, 10-yard outing in Week 9, resulting in diminished fantasy production (he did have a touchdown called back on a penalty). With 51 receptions on 76 targets but averaging only 6.7 yards per catch, Robinson has been used primarily in short-yardage situations, limiting his upside. Facing a Panthers defense ranked 12th against fantasy WRs but vulnerable in the red zone with 18 passing touchdowns allowed this season, Robinson's potential for a bounce-back remains low, making him a risky WR4 play in deeper leagues for Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was held in check in Week 9 against a stout Vikings rush defense, but Week 10 brings a much more favorable matchup. The Buffalo Bills have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the RB position, and it hasn't just been on the ground. Running backs have scored four receiving TDs against them as well, in addition to the six rushing TDs they've yielded. Taylor is certainly a capable receiver, even receiving a season-high five targets in Week 9 with Joe Flacco under center. Although the 25-year-old missed a few weeks with an ankle injury, when he returned in Week 8, Taylor eclipsed 100-plus rushing and receiving yards for the fourth consecutive week. With Flacco struggling through the air last week and the Bills tougher against the pass, along with the expected absence of WR Michael Pittman Jr., the Colts could lean a bit heavier on the ground game in Week 10, which sets Jonathan Taylor up as a back-end RB1 on Sunday with some upside.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers remains the team's top weapon heading into Week 10's matchup against the Carolina Panthers in Munich. Last week, Nabers led the Giants with nine receptions, though he was held to just 59 yards as the Commanders contained his big-play ability. This week, he faces a Panthers defense that ranks 12th against fantasy WRs and has allowed 18 passing touchdowns this season, despite limiting overall passing yards to 232.6 per game. Nabers' steady target volume and six end-zone targets make him a reliable fantasy option, and against Carolina's vulnerable red-zone defense, he has a solid chance to add to his three touchdowns this season, making him a high-floor WR1 for Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Mack Hollins (shoulder) was removed from the injury report heading into Sunday's matchup with the Colts. He practiced in full on Wednesday. However, there were some doubts regarding his availability after logging limited sessions on Thursday and Friday. Fortunately, he's good to go against Indianapolis. The 31-year-old is coming off his best game of the 2024-25 campaign, catching all five targets for 30 yards and a touchdown. With Keon Coleman (wrist) out and Amari Cooper (wrist) questionable, there could be opportunities for others on the offensive end. While Khalil Shakir should remain Josh Allen's preferred receiving option, Hollins could gain streaming potential in deep league fantasy formats if Cooper doesn't suit up.
From RotoBaller