Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 10
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones struggled to run the offense in a 12-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Starter Trevor Lawrence was out with a shoulder injury, so Jones was tasked with stepping up in his absence. The former New England Patriot could not take advantage, finishing with 14 completions on 22 attempts for 111 yards, two interceptions, and a rushing touchdown. Besides Christian Kirk, Jones had all of his weapons available, so his effort is disappointing to say the least. The Vikings are a great defense under Brian Flores's tutelage, but if Lawrence is out for the rest of the season, this performance should leave fantasy managers pessimistic about the Jaguars offense going forward. Jones and the Jaguars will look to bounce back in a tough matchup with the Detroit Lions in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride delivered another solid performance in the Cardinals' 31-6 win over the New York Jets. McBride recorded four catches for 71 yards and made multiple momentum-shifting plays that became a dagger in the Jets' defense. McBride made a massive play on third down, breaking a tackle and hurdling a defender for the third straight week. Fantasy managers haven't had to put much thought into the position with McBride on their rosters; however, they'll have to look to a streamer with the team entering a bye week.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants running back Devin Singletary is firmly in the backup role as he was outpaced yet again by Tyrone Tracy Jr. in the disappointing Week 10 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Singletary registered eight carries for 40 yards and one reception for five yards on one target. His nine touches paled in comparison to Tracy's 19. Singletary was efficient with his carries, but if he continues to see this drastic drop in opportunities compared to the beginning of the year, then he's not much of a fantasy option. The Giants head into their bye week now at 2-8 with an eye towards the NFL Draft instead of the playoffs.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Calvin Austin III remains involved in the passing game during the 28-27 win over the Washington Commanders. He received six targets in this contest but only ended up with two receptions for 20 yards. Russell Wilson's accuracy left a bit to be desired in this game and newly-acquired Mike Williams got involved with a touchdown catch as well. Austin continues to be a boom-or-bust type of player that holds a bit more value in deeper leagues. He'll try to break loose against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson ended up as fourth in the pecking order for targets during the huge win over the New York Jets on Sunday. The second-year wideout finished the game with three receptions for 24 yards on four targets. The Cardinals opted to go more run-heavy in this game as they produced 32 carries compared to 24 pass attempts. This game further proved that Wilson is more of an afterthought in the offense as he's now posted six games with fewer than five targets and seven games with fewer than five receptions. The Cardinals have a bye in Week 11 before taking on the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud III wasn't very involved in the 20-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints. He ended with four targets which tied for fourth-most on the team with Bijan Robinson. Those turned into three receptions for 30 yards and he even received one carry which went for six yards. Drake London and Darnell Mooney were the undisputed top pass-catchers for Kirk Cousins in this matchup while McCloud couldn't find much open space. He'll try to get more involved against a tougher defense in the Denver Broncos in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Mason Tipton vaulted to the front of the depth chart with all of the injuries to the receiving corps. In the Saints' Week 10 victory, it was Marquez Valdes-Scantling who took charge, not Tipton. The rookie out of Yale didn't see a single target and posted a goose egg for the week. He played the same amount of snaps as Valdes-Scantling at 29, but Derek Carr wasn't looking his way. Tipton will try to bounce back against the Cleveland Browns in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley had five catches for 84 yards and two touchdowns in a loss to the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: Ridley now has 32 targets over his last three games after complaining about his role in the offense. While his production is bound to be spotty (he has just one 100-yard game this year), the Titans have little choice but to get him the ball. On the plus side, Will Levis did look a lot better today than he has in most weeks, so there's that. Ridley will be a plus WR2 moving forward and his dynasty value has evened out over the past couple of weeks.
Dynasty | Saints receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling had three catches for 109 yards and a touchdown in a win against Atlanta. Dynasty Analysis: Well, OK then. MVS is traditionally pretty streaky and this one came out of nowhere. The challenge here is the fact he did all his damage on only three catches and three targets. A boom or bust player if there ever was one, he'll look to keep things going on a team in dire need of pass catchers with Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave both on the shelf. MVS is roster worthy, but we're going to see a lot more before recommending him in lineups.
Dynasty | Broncos running back Javonte Williams had one rushing yard, two catches and six receiving yards in a loss to Kansas City. Dynasty Analysis: Meanwhile, Audric Estime had 14 carries in the game. It's hard to say if this is going to be a permanent move to the rookie, but Williams saw just 16 snaps in a game that was close all the way through. Sean Payton is notoriously hard to read, but Williams should be on fantasy benches moving forward until it shakes out. His dynasty value is starting to tank and today may speed that up.
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (wrist) was unable to practice on Friday or Saturday this week and came into the Monday night contest as questionable. Ian Rapoport now reports that the superstar wideout is a "true" game-time decision as he aggravated a wrist injury that he's technically been dealing with since the preseason. The Dolphins want to salvage their season as they sit at 2-6 on the year, so Hill will be desperately needed for their success. Fantasy managers that stuck with Hill in their lineups will want a backup plan just in case such as Odell Beckham Jr. or Malik Washington who should see extra targets.
From RotoBaller
On Sunday, Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift had a rather underwhelming performance in the team's Week 10 loss to the New England Patriots. Despite getting 16 carries, Swift managed just 59 yards on the ground, averaging a modest 3.7 yards per carry, and could not find the end zone. His involvement in the passing game was minimal, catching just one pass for six yards. The Bears' offense struggled to move the ball, punting on eight of their eleven possessions and turning it over on downs twice. Swift's opportunities were limited, as the offense was constantly playing from behind and unable to sustain drives. Looking ahead, Swift and the Bears offense will have a chance to bounce back next week against the Green Bay Packers, a defense that will be well-rested after their bye week and primed for a strong performance.
From RotoBaller
In Week 10, Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze struggled to make an impact in the team's 20-3 loss to the New England Patriots. Odunze finished the game with just three receptions for 23 yards, failing to find the end zone. His performance was indicative of the Bears' overall offensive woes, as the team only managed 120 yards passing throughout the game. Behind a battered offensive line that allowed nine sacks, Odunze and his fellow receivers had little opportunity to get into rhythm. The Bears' offense could barely sustain drives, punting eight times and turning the ball over on downs twice. While Odunze showed flashes of potential earlier in the season, this performance was a reminder of how difficult it can be for any skill player to thrive when the offense is struggling. Odunze and the Bears will look to bounce back next week against the well-rested Green Bay Packers defense.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers rookie tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders only had two receptions for eight yards in Sunday's 20-17 win over the New York Giants, but one of those receptions was a five-yard touchdownthe first of Sanders' career. The score came on a nifty Bryce Young scramble, which froze the defense and left Sanders alone in the back of the end zone. The fourth-round pick was due for his moment after recording 51 yards per game in Carolina's previous four weeks. Still, Sanders has had fewer than 10 yards in two of his last three games, making him a risky streaming option. Carolina has a bye in Week 11 and will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12 coming off the bye.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers rookie wide receiver Jalen Coker led all Panthers wideouts with 41 yards on three receptions against the New York Giants. Coker has received increased snaps since his 68-yard performance in Week 5 and garnered a team-high eight targets in this matchup. While the Panthers' passing attack has been anything but electric this season, the rookie from Holy Cross has managed to find his footing in the NFL. His talent and production likely contributed to the decision of Carolina's front office to trade wide receiver Jonathan Mingo to the Cowboys at the NFL deadline. While he'll rest on a bye next week, seeing how Coker develops throughout the season will be interesting. Coker will look to build on Sunday's performance when the Panthers face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12, coming off the bye.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers rookie wide receiver Xavier Legette recorded three receptions for 40 yards in Carolina's 20-17 win over the New York Giants in Munich, Germany. It was Legette's second-most receiving yards in a game this year, as he has only eclipsed the 50-yard mark once. The rookie, who has emerged most as a red-zone threat, did not receive a target in that area of the field. While Carolina has a Week 11 bye in the future, Legette remains a touchdown-dependent streaming option in deep leagues. The Carolina passing attack is not dynamic enough to properly feed the mouths they have, making Legette a flex play against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12 coming off the bye.
From RotoBaller
For the first time in his career, Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has initiated a winning streak as the Panthers defeat the New York Giants 20-17. While not spectacular, Young played his role and didn't turn the ball over, contributing 126 yards, a touchdown, and a 60% completion rate. The 23-year-old also added 30 rushing yards on two attempts in Sunday's win. Since taking over for veteran Andy Dalton, Young has a 4:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and the Panthers are (2-1). Carolina has a Week 11 bye and will face the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in late November. Head coach Dave Canales declined to name Young the foreseeable starting quarterback, but given the win streak and serviceable play, he would be expected to continue manning the helm.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard set a career-high with 153 rushing yards while catching four of six targets for 16 yards in Sunday's 20-17 win against the New York Giants in Munich, Germany. He achieved the feat on 28 rush attemptsa season-highand tied a career-high in missed tackles with nine. Hubbard also recorded his seventh touchdown of the season. It was a European trip to remember for the Panthers' leading rusher, who signed a four-year contract extension earlier this week. He's remained a consistent, high-value fantasy player throughout the season, outproducing his ADP. The Panthers have a bye in Week 11 before returning to face the mighty Kansas City Chiefs on November 24.
From RotoBaller
On Sunday, Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen had a frustrating and underwhelming performance in the team's Week 10 loss to the New England Patriots. Allen finished the game with just five receptions for a modest 44 yards, a far cry from the dynamic playmaker he was last season. Throughout the contest, he struggled to gain separation from the Patriots' defensive backs, who were able to neutralize him for much of the game. This lack of production was symptomatic of the Bears' overall offensive struggles, as the team managed just 120 passing yards behind a battered offensive line that allowed nine sacks. Beyond a lone field goal drive, the Bears punted on eight of their ten possessions and turned the ball over on downs twice, leaving little opportunity for Allen or any other receiver to make a significant impact. Looking ahead, Allen and the Bears' offense will have a chance to rebound next week against the well-rested Green Bay Packers defense, coming off their bye week.
From RotoBaller
In Week 10, Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet had a frustratingly quiet performance in the team's 20-3 loss to the New England Patriots. Kmet finished the game with just two receptions for 13 yards, a far cry from many expectations for him heading into the matchup. What made his lack of involvement even more baffling was that Kmet didn't see a target until midway through the third quarter, despite the Bears' offense struggling to move the ball all game. This performance was particularly disappointing for fantasy managers. Kmet has shown flashes of potential as a red-zone target earlier this season, but he remains a boom-or-bust player. The Bears managed only 120 yards passing, with a battered offensive line allowing nine sacks, which made it difficult for any of the receivers, including Kmet, to get into a rhythm. Kmet and the Bears will look to bounce back in Week 11 against the well-rested Green Bay Packers defense coming off their bye.
From RotoBaller