Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 17
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense/special teams unit is a decent streaming option in Week 17 against the Tennessee Titans. Last time they faced the Titans in Week 14, they only gave up 6 points and got two sacks. The Titans offense has been one of the friendliest to fantasy defenses this season, so the Jaguars D/ST is a better option than usual for fantasy championships. Unfortunately the defense is one of the worst in the NFL, so their upside is limited, but against the Titans turnover-prone offense, anything is possible. As long as they can stop the running game and force Mason Rudolph to beat them, they have a good shot of at least producing a solid fantasy day. However, there are definitely better defenses to start in fantasy championships in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller was the odds-on favorite to assume the role as the team's featured back after Alvin Kamara (groin) was declared out before Week 16. Unfortunately for Miller, that game turned into a blowout early on and the coaching staff pivoted to a two-minute offense that involved a surprisingly heavy dose of Jordan Mims. Miller finished the game with a 40% snap share to Mims' 43% and logged just 10 touches for a total of 31 yards from scrimmage. Miller is expected to sit atop the depth chart again in Week 17 but seeing how quickly the Saints moved away from him last week should give fantasy managers pause before entrusting him with a starting spot in the final week of fantasy football. Additionally, New Orleans will be missing starting linemen Erik McCoy (elbow) and Lucas Patrick (knee). Managers hoping to lock up a championship this weekend should weigh their alternatives before locking Miller in.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Jordan Mims was the team's unexpected leader in targets in Week 16, seeing eight passes come his way. That translated to merely 16 yards on five catches as rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler could do little but check down to the backup to spot starter Kendre Miller. Alvin Kamara (groin) is out another week, meaning Miller is likely to be in the RB1 slot once again with Mims and Jamaal Williams as the alternatives out of the backfield. Despite outsnapping Miller in Week 16, Mims can't be counted on to do the same on Sunday in the Saints' game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Interim head coach Darren Rizzi clarified that Mims' involvement was due to the game getting out of hand so early, forcing the team to run a two-minute offense to give themselves a chance at keeping up. The Raiders don't pose the same threat which means we should see less of Mims in Week 17. He can remain on the wire.
From RotoBaller
The New Orleans Saints have listed wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (chest) as questionable for their Week 17 meeting with the Las Vegas Raiders. If he misses the game then the Saints' motley crew of other receivers including Kevin Austin Jr., Dante Pettis, and tight ends Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau are among the contenders to see some extra targets. Chris Olave (concussion) is also listed as questionable and if he makes his return on Sunday then he would immediately retake his position at the top of the depth chart. If MVS does play, he offers little upside for fantasy teams looking to lock up a championship this weekend. Spencer Rattler will get another start as Derek Carr (hand) is listed as out for the second straight week. Rattler's erratic performance in his handful of starts this year makes it hard to trust any of the Saints receivers in Week 17. Valdes-Scantling is an easy sit in the final week of the fantasy season.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end tied for the team lead in receptions in Week 16. That he did so with all of two catches should say something about how the offense fared last week. Moreau also led the team outright in receiving yards with 33, giving him roughly one-third of quarterback Spencer Rattler's 153 passing yards in the 34-0 loss at the hands of the Green Bay Packers. With Derek Carr (hand) out for another week, Rattler will draw another start on Sunday against Moreau's former team, the Las Vegas Raiders. In Rattler's five starts this season, Moreau has averaged two catches for 32.8 yards on 2.4 targets per game, leaving little hope that the rookie will look to his tight end for anything more than an occasional chunk gain. While this may be a "revenge game" for Moreau, he is unlikely to make an impact in fantasy. Managers vying for a championship this weekend would be wise to look elsewhere if they are in need of a tight end.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (foot) carries no designation heading into the team's game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Johnson was a limited participant in practice on Thursday and listed as such in Wednesday's estimated report. He was able to participate in full on Friday. Quarterback Derek Carr (hand) will miss another week meaning rookie Spencer Rattler will be back under center. The inexperienced signal-caller might be expected to use his tight end as a safety net but in Rattler's five starts this year Johnson has averaged 2.6 receptions for 30.6 yards on 3.6 targets per game. The Raiders have given up the fifth-most yards and touchdowns to opposing tight ends in 2024 but the Saints' inability or unwillingness to work Johnson into a more consistent role makes him hard to trust as a starter in the final week of fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints kicker Blake Grupe was blanked in Week 16. It wasn't that he missed any kicks, it was the fact that the offense was never in a position to get him on the field in a 34-0 shellacking at the hands of the Green Bay Packers. When Grupe last saw scoring opportunities, in Week 15, he went two-for-two on field goals (from 41 and 51 yards out) and nailed his lone extra point. In Week 17, Grupe and the Saints face the Las Vegas Raiders, who have given up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing kickers. Still, Grupe remains a risky option in fantasy football's championship round. With Derek Carr (hand) and Alvin Kamara (out) the Saints' offense could still be stuck in the mud come Sunday. New Orleans has averaged 12.8 points per game in rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler's five starts thus far. With most fantasy leagues whittled down to their final two teams, there should be safer alternatives on the wire to stream in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
With Derek Carr (hand) out another week, rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler has been named the starter by the New Orleans Saints for their Week 17 meeting with the Las Vegas Raiders. In five starts this season, Rattler has two touchdowns to three interceptions and has averaged 171.8 passing yards per game. He has also lost three fumbles. Rattler clearly needs more seasoning before he can truly take the reins of an NFL offense and the Saints are using this opportunity to get him some live reps. Despite a matchup against one of the worst teams in the league and the potential return of Chris Olave (concussion), there is no reason to roll the dice on Rattler suddenly putting it together. Even in two-QB leagues, Rattler should be avoided in fantasy football's championship round.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Cam Little should not be heavily considered by managers in fantasy championships in Week 17 against the Tennessee Titans. The rookie kicker has had a solid season, but his fantasy output has been greatly limited by the Jaguars offense. When the Jaguars faced the Titans back in Week 14, they only scored 10 points, leading to a middling fantasy output for Little. He just lacks the proper upside fantasy managers should be looking for in a kicker. He has only hit double digits in three weeks, which came in Weeks 4, 5, and 15. While fantasy kickers are generally not taken seriously, every player matters when trying to win a fantasy championship. Given the inconsistent offense with Mac Jones under center and a tough defensive divisional matchup, there are many better options than Little in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Parker Washington does not get the targets or have the big-play ability to be considered a reliable fantasy option in Week 17 against the Tennessee Titans. The young receiver flashed back in Week 13 against the Houston Texans with a six catch, 103 yard, and a touchdown performance. Other than that, he hasn't done much this season even with injuries to Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram. Last week, Washington did put up six catches for 54 yards, but he isn't relied on enough by the already underwhelming Mac Jones. Washington seems to be competing for the second passing option behind Brian Thomas Jr. with Brenton Strange and Travis Etienne Jr. In an already limited offense, Washington lacks the consistent volume and upside to be worthy of starting in fantasy championships in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. is a decent start, but not ideal in Week 17 against the Tennessee Titans. The 25-year-old back gets a slight boost in PPR, as his role while playing with Tank Bigsby seems to be the passing down back along with a random number of carries. Given how the Jaguars have oscillated between who gets more touches out of the backfield, it is hard to trust both Etienne Jr. or Bigsby. For example, when the Jaguars faced the Titans in Week 14, Etienne Jr. only got four carries, but the following week he got 14. The volume just isn't there for him to have much upside, making him not a great option for teams competing for a championship. While he has a chance for a decent fantasy day, Etienne Jr. is not an ideal flex option in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby has decent potential as a flex option, but is a bit touchdown reliant in Week 17 against the Tennessee Titans. The second-year back out of Auburn has had an up-and-down season, having some big games and some letdown games. The main road block he has faced, besides small injuries, is the presence of Travis Etienne Jr. Bigsby has been the more explosive back and better by the goal line, but Etienne Jr. eats into his carry total and passing work. Bigsby has gotten double digit carries in each of his last three games, including 18 against the Titans in Week 14. He only averaged 3.1 yards per carry that game, but he did find the endzone. If Bigsby can improve his efficiency and find the endzone again, he could make for a decent flex in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. is a must-start in Week 17 against the Tennessee Titans. The rookie receiver has been sensational as of late, not caring how difficult his opponent is or who is throwing him the ball. Against the Titans in Week 14, BTJ put up eight catches for 86 yards. He didn't find the end zone, but he got double digit targets, which he has now gotten in four straight games. His big play ability combined with the huge talent gap between him and his target competition means his floor and ceiling are both high. As long as Mac Jones continues to pepper him with targets, the LSU product will remain a stud despite a difficult matchup. Out of all Jaguars offensive players, BTJ is easily the best one to have in lineups in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell led his team to their third win of the 2024-25 campaign by defeating the Jaguars in Week 16. However, it still wasn't the best fantasy showing, with the 26-year-old throwing for 257 yards while not finding any of his receivers in the end zone. With the Saints on tap for Week 17, O'Connell is hoping for a strong finish to the season in his next two appearances. Unfortunately, with only four touchdowns (and three interceptions) this season, O'Connell shouldn't be anywhere near a fantasy lineup in Week 17. That will remain the same for Week 18 as well.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones is not a great start in Week 17 against the Tennessee Titans. The former Patriot had a solid outing last week against the Raiders, but he struggled mightily the last time he faced the Titans in Week 14. He threw two interceptions and no touchdowns, leading the team to just 10 points. Jones has flashed in some weeks, but the Titans stout pass defense is not likely to be one of those weeks. On the bright side, Jones does have exceptional rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. to throw the ball to, who happens to be a big play waiting to happen. If one of those plays were to happen, maybe Jones could have a decent fantasy day. Despite that, Jones is just too difficult to trust with fantasy championships on the line in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger hasn't had a great year. He's appeared in 15 games, catching only 12 passes for 116 yards. The 24-year-old also hasn't found the end zone since his rookie campaign. With Malik Nabers (toe) questionable for Sunday's game against the Colts, there's a good could be a few extra targets up for grabs. However, Bellinger isn't likely to be a beneficiary, and his outlook is even worse with Drew Lock under center.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson has already had the best season of his career. He's appeared in 15 games, catching 78 passes for 585 yards and two touchdowns. While the wideout has improved, he still hasn't been a productive fantasy option. However, with Malik Nabers (toe) questionable, Robinson may be in line for more work in Sunday's game against the Colts. When Nabers missed two games this season, Robinson combined for 11 catches. Granted, Darius Slayton was more productive in those contests. Yet, Robinson has flex potential if Nabers is ruled out, although his outlook isn't as favorable with Drew Lock under center.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton has had a down year. In 14 appearances, he has 38 catches for 541 yards and one touchdown. However, with Malik Nabers (toe) questionable for Sunday's meeting with the Colts, there's a good chance Slayton could get more involved. Nabers missed two games this season back in October. In those contests, Slayton combined for 22 targets. Granted things are much different at this point in the season for the Giants, with Drew Lock now under center. Yet, fantasy managers can consider Slayton at least a flex option if Nabers is ruled out, although his presence in fantasy lineups still wouldn't be without risk, especially with Lock playing so poorly.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants running back Devin Singletary began the year as the team's No. 1 option out of the backfield. However, as the season progressed, he found himself behind Tyrone Tracy Jr. (ankle). With Tracy moving in the right direction, at least it seems, for Sunday's matchup with the Colts, there may not be enough room for Singletary to get involved. Granted, Tracy likely won't be fully healthy if he plays, so there's a chance Singletary could steal some touches. But with or without the rookie on the field, Singletary can't be trusted to occupy a spot in fantasy lineups in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions wide receiver Tim Patrick spent his entire career in Denver before injuries led him to his current team. While he was more productive with the Broncos, he has still played better than expected with the Lions. The 31-year-old has appeared in 14 games during the 2024-25 campaign, totaling 31 catches for 379 yards. But after amassing three touchdowns combined in meetings with the Packers and Bills, Patrick went cold against the Bears by failing to catch his only target. It's obvious Patrick can still play well. However, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams on the field, Patrick could struggle to get anything going on Monday night versus the 49ers, making him an extremely risky fantasy option.
From RotoBaller