Guest of the League
USFFL Est. 2015
FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 17

Player Notes
Kendre Miller Jan 2 9:40am ET
Kendre Miller

New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller (concussion) did not practice on Wednesday prior to the Week 18 finale against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If Miller can't clear concussion protocol by Sunday, newly acquired back Clyde Edwards-Helaire seems likely to lead the backfield again, though he drew only five carries last week against Las Vegas. With the Saints way out of the playoff picture and quarterback Derek Carr (left hand) and running back Alvin Kamara (groin) still not practicing, the entire offense looks to be avoidable in any format that still plays Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Juwan Johnson Jan 2 9:40am ET
Juwan Johnson

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (knee) practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday prior to the Week 18 finale against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The veteran tight end is coming off his best game of the year and led the team in receiving, but times are bleak for the Saints. Johnson has a nice matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom 10 against fantasy tight ends, but with Derek Carr (left hand), Alvin Kamara (groin), and Chris Olave (head) all dealing with injuries and the Saints having little incentive to go all out, Johnson should be viewed as a TE2 option if he plays.

From RotoBaller

Nick Bosa Jan 2 9:30am ET
Nick Bosa

San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (knee) did not practice on Wednesday ahead of Week 18's finale against the Arizona Cardinals. The Ohio State product has been an injury report regular this year, but the knee injury was a new designation after oblique and hip issues earlier in the season. With San Francisco already eliminated from playoff contention, there won't be much reason to push the envelope with the star defensive end, so missing the game certainly seems in play for Bosa. For IDP formats still going in Week 18, managers should have a backup plan at the ready.

From RotoBaller

Ricky Pearsall Jan 2 9:20am ET
Ricky Pearsall

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (illness, chest) was limited in Wednesday's practice, according to Nick Wagoner of ESPN. The 49ers will conclude the season at Arizona in Week 18 in a meeting of two teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention. The rookie receiver is coming off his career-best game on Monday against Detroit, going for eight catches, 141 yards, and a touchdown, but the 49ers may be without quarterback Brock Purdy (elbow) and a host of other players, too. Against a solid Cards pass defense, Pearsall is a major risk in DFS or fantasy formats that play Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Drake Maye Jan 2 1:00am ET
Drake Maye

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (right hand) was limited during Wednesday's practice. The rookie reportedly injured one of his fingers during last Saturday's loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Maye is expected to recover in time for Week 18 against the Buffalo Bills, and he's in line to start after head coach Jerod Mayo indicated all of New England's healthy starters would play. Nevertheless, it's an interesting story to monitor given that the Patriots would clinch the No. 1 draft pick with a loss on Sunday but could drop as low as No. 5 if they win. There has been ongoing speculation that the Patriots could rest Maye to preserve his health and secure the top pick, but as of now, it sounds like Mayo is going to roll out his starters in hopes of a Week 18 victory.

From RotoBaller

Anthony Richardson Jan 2 12:50am ET
Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (back) was listed as a non-participant on Wednesday's practice estimation. The second-year quarterback noted that his back injury limited him physically last week, and there were times when he couldn't even walk or stand up. He feels better now, though, and said that he'll do everything in his power to play on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Head coach Shane Steichen echoed this sentiment, saying, "We're hopeful [that Richardson plays]. He's working through his rehab and his treatment right now, so we'll see how the week progresses with that." Richardson should rank as a low-end QB1 facing off against a subpar Jaguars defense.

From RotoBaller

Ja'Lynn Polk Jan 2 12:50am ET
Ja'Lynn Polk

New England Patriots wide receivers Kayshon Boutte (illness) and Ja'Lynn Polk (shoulder) did not participate in practice on Wednesday. Boutte has been heavily involved lately, commanding 23 targets over his last four games. His absence from practice is concerning, but the good news is that players are typically able to recover from illnesses within a few days, so Boutte has a real chance to recover in time for Sunday's game against the Buffalo Bills. Polk's status is a little more murky after he injured his shoulder in the middle of last week's loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The rookie has been quite underwhelming, catching just 12 passes for 87 yards and two touchdowns while struggling with drops. Fantasy managers invested in the statuses of either Boutte or Polk should check back Thursday to see if either receiver can improve to limited or full.

From RotoBaller

Patrick Mahomes Jan 2 12:40am ET
Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (ankle) was limited during practice on Wednesday. The Chiefs are expected to rest key starters, including Mahomes, in Week 18, so his appearance on the injury report isn't something worth worrying about. In his age-29 season, Mahomes threw for 3,928 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while leading his Chiefs to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Carson Wentz should start at quarterback against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, but there's been speculation that the Chiefs could also give Chris Oladokun some snaps under center.

From RotoBaller

Nick Folk Jan 2 12:30am ET
Nick Folk

Tennessee Titans kicker Nick Folk (abdomen) was listed as a non-participant on Wednesday's practice estimation. The veteran kicker has missed two consecutive games due to injury and now faces an uphill battle to play in Sunday's regular-season finale against the Houston Texans. It's an unfortunate ending to what had been an otherwise solid season for Folk. Through 14 games, the 40-year-old went 25-for-25 on extra points and 21-for-22 on field goals. Tennessee has no other kickers on its roster after waiving Matthew Wright, so it's unclear who would handle kicking duties if Folk can't suit up in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Tony Pollard Jan 2 12:30am ET
Tony Pollard

Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard (ankle) was estimated as a limited participant on Wednesday. The 27-year-old missed last week's game with a combination of his ankle injury and an illness. His absence allowed Tyjae Spears to take over as Tennessee's starter, but Spears picked up a concussion mid-game, forcing the Titans to rely on third-string running back Julius Chestnut. With Spears expected to miss Week 18, Pollard's return comes at a great time. He's trending toward playing in Sunday's regular-season finale against the Houston Texans, ranking as a low-end RB2 in fantasy football.

From RotoBaller

Tyjae Spears Jan 2 12:20am ET
Tyjae Spears

Tennessee Titans running back Tyjae Spears (concussion) was estimated as a non-participant in practice on Wednesday. Head coach Brian Callahan previously said that Spears would not play in Week 18, and Wednesday's injury report reflects that sentiment. The 23-year-old has flourished over his last three games, totaling 127 rushing yards, 134 receiving yards, and four touchdowns during that span. If there's anything positive to take away from the Titans' injury report, it's the fact that Tony Pollard (ankle) was able to practice in a limited capacity. There appears to be a strong chance that Pollard plays in Week 18, with Julius Chestnut backing him up.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Boyd Jan 2 12:20am ET
Tyler Boyd

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Tyler Boyd (foot) was listed as a non-participant on Wednesday's practice estimation. Boyd has made frequent appearances on the injury report this season, but he hasn't missed a game yet. The 30-year-old has consistently operated as the Titans' No. 3 receiver, totaling 39 catches for 390 yards through 16 games. He's still looking for his first touchdown as a member of the Titans, and he's just one game away from finishing a season without a touchdown for the first time in his career. Given that he's behind Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Chig Okonkwo in the pecking order, Boyd remains off the fantasy radar and can be left on waivers in most leagues.

From RotoBaller

Hunter Henry Jan 1 10:10pm ET
Hunter Henry

New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (foot) logged a limited session in the team's first practice of the week. Henry hurt his foot in Week 17's blowout loss -- a 40-7 rout against his former team, the Los Angeles Chargers. He commanded just two targets and participated in only 30 snaps in the loss. Both figures are season-lows, and it was the first outing he did not record a catch all year. That he could at least practice in a limited capacity is a boon to his outlook for Week 18. However, seeing him elevate his practice status over the next few days would be good. The Patriots will host the visiting Buffalo Bills in a divisional clash this Sunday. As the game is meaningless for both squads, it's possible that if the veteran TE is closer to the wrong side of questionable, he's rested anyway. Keep an eye on him as the week closes out.

From RotoBaller

George Kittle Jan 1 10:03pm ET
George Kittle

San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle (ankle, hamstring) did not practice Wednesday, Jan. 1.

Fantasy Spin: Keep an on Kittle's status over the next couple of days. He is a TE1 if he suits up, but with the 49ers eliminated from playoff contention, it wouldn't be a surprise if he is held out for the finale if he isn't close to full strength.

From TheHuddle

Isaac Yiadom Jan 1 9:53pm ET
Isaac Yiadom

San Francisco 49ers DL Robert Beal Jr. (ankle), DE Nick Bosa (knee), OG Spencer Burford (calf), LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (calf), LB Leonard Floyd (shoulder), CB Deommodore Lenoir (shoulder), OT Colton McKivitz (knee) and CB Isaac Yiadom (pelvis) did not practice Wednesday, Jan. 1. S Ji'Ayir Brown (ankle) was limited, and S Talanoa Hufanga (wrist) was a full participant.

From TheHuddle

Ameer Abdullah Jan 1 9:50pm ET
Ameer Abdullah

Las Vegas Raiders running back Ameer Abdullah (foot) was listed as a non-participant to kick off this week of practice. The 31-year-old produced the best rushing total of his career in Sunday's 25-10 win against the New Orleans Saints. Unfortunately, Abdullah sustained a foot injury early in the fourth quarter, or he'd have had an even bigger day. While he was initially deemed questionable to return to the contest, he did not. The Nebraska product has been one of the more pleasant surprises late in the season, but he could be in danger of missing Sunday's meeting with the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. If Abdullah can't play, backfield mate Alexander Mattison projects to lead the Raiders' rushing attack with Chris Collier and/or Dylan Laube working in behind him. Abdullah's practice participation over the next two days should give us a better idea of his status for Sunday's bout.

From RotoBaller

Saquon Barkley Jan 1 9:43pm ET
Saquon Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley has topped 100 rushing yards in 11 games this season, the most by any player in their first year with a team in NFL history.

Fantasy Spin: Barkley will sit out the season finale, but his first year in Philadelphia exceeded any reasonable expectations. Not only did he top 2,000 yards rushing, but he was one of the most consistent backs week in and week out.

From TheHuddle

Tee Higgins Jan 1 9:40pm ET
Tee Higgins

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (ankle, knee) was listed as a limited participant for the second straight day ahead of his team's road meeting with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Clemson product has been dealing with knee and ankle injuries for a few weeks now, though it hasn't stopped him from being effective on the field. Since picking up the first of his injuries in Week 15 (knee), Higgins has gone for 277 yards and five touchdowns across 24 receptions. He's the PPR WR2 over that stretch, averaging a robust 26.6 fantasy points per game. Fantasy managers should continue to keep an eye on him just in case, but it seems unlikely he'll miss the Bengals' divisional clash this Saturday. With Cincinnati still battling for a chance at post-season play, he and the rest of their squad should be all systems go against the Steelers.

From RotoBaller

Jared Goff Jan 1 9:23pm ET
Jared Goff

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff has 17 touchdowns and zero interceptions on passes on third or fourth down this season.

Fantasy Spin: Goff has been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks, throwing at least three touchdowns in four straight games and topping 300 yards in three straight.

From TheHuddle

Joe Burrow Jan 1 9:20pm ET
Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist, knee) was listed as a limited participant for Wednesday's team practice. This has been the veteran's routine for a few weeks now -- logging a limited session or two since picking up a knee injury in Cincinnati's win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14. Fortunately, it hasn't forced him to miss any time. There hasn't been another quarterback as hot as Burrow, who has tossed three or more passing scores in every outing since Week 9. The 28-year-old leads all passers in yards and touchdowns and trails only the Ravens' Lamar Jackson in QBR. With the Bengals still fighting for the final playoff spot in the AFC, expect the veteran to be out there this Saturday when his team lines up against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a road tilt. Cincinnati currently holds a 5% chance to snag a spot in the tournament.

From RotoBaller