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FFL: Week 6 | NFL: Week 6

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Troy Franklin Oct 12 7:50am ET
Troy Franklin

With Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds (finger) sidelined in Week 6 against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers, rookie wideout Troy Franklin should see additional opportunities in the passing attack, albeit in a less-than-favorable matchup. The fourth-rounder from Oregon hasn't played more than 31% of the offensive snaps in any of the first four NFL games he's played in, but that could change this Sunday. He also has only five catches on 12 targets for 29 yards and dropped what would have been his first career touchdown in the Week 5 win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. Even though Franklin could serve as the team's WR3 against the Chargers, he won't be a realistic starting option in fantasy in what has been a low-volume, inefficient offense. The Chargers defense has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR points per game to pass-catchers through five weeks as well.

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Cole Kmet Oct 12 7:40am ET
Cole Kmet

Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is a borderline starter this week, benefiting from a favorable matchup against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. Last week, Kmet had a decent outing for a tight end, recording three catches for 57 yards. While his snap rate has increased, his production has declined since his Week 3 breakout. With only seven targets over his last two games, it's tough to feel confident about Kmet's upside. However, given the ongoing challenges at the tight end position in 2024, he can still be a viable spot starter in this favorable matchup.

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Trevor Lawrence Oct 12 7:40am ET
Trevor Lawrence

The Chicago Bears defense and special teams want to continue their strong early-season performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Bears come into the game with a defense on track to finish in the top five in scoring for the first time since 2019. They'll face former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, who has struggled in 2024 compared to his usual standards. In Week 5, Lawrence completed 82.4% of his passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, but his overall season has been lackluster. Start the Bears' defense with confidence this week, as they will likely create turnovers against Lawrence and the underperforming Jaguars offense.

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Cairo Santos Oct 12 7:40am ET
Cairo Santos

Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos is a reliable fantasy option for Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He had a mixed performance in his Week 5 matchup against the Carolina Panthers, successfully converting his only field goal attempt from 30 yards but missing one of four extra-point attempts. Santos will likely see plenty of action again this week in London, as the Bears are expected to move the ball effectively against a struggling Jaguars defense.

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Lil'Jordan Humphrey Oct 12 7:40am ET
Lil'Jordan Humphrey

Denver Broncos wide receiver Josh Reynolds (finger) has been ruled out for Week 6 against the Los Angeles Chargers, which will lead to more involvement for receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey. In the Week 5 win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders, he played the second-most snaps of Denver's receivers and caught both of his targets for 48 yards. Despite the opportunity, we aren't recommending Humphrey to fantasy managers against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year. The 26-year-old does have impressive yards-after-the-catch abilities with the ball in his hands, but he's just not very exciting in what has been a low-scoring offense led by a rookie quarterback, especially in a tough matchup. Humphrey has 12 catches for 135 yards and no scores through five games in 2024 and should be left on the waiver wire in standard-sized, 12-team leagues.

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Roschon Johnson Oct 12 7:30am ET
Roschon Johnson

Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson is poised to capitalize on his increased workload from last week as he faces the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6. Last week, he enjoyed his best fantasy performance of the season, rushing ten times for 25 yards and scoring two touchdowns. Since Week 4, Johnson has found the end zone three times, having taken over the goal-line rushing duties for the Bears. If the Bears can establish a lead, Johnson could see additional goal-line opportunities against a struggling Jaguars defense, similar to his performance against the Panthers. Johnson is a worthwhile dart throw for those in need, given his secure role in the Bears' offense.

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D.J. Moore Oct 12 7:30am ET
D.J. Moore

Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is a solid WR2 choice this week against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. Coming off his best game of the season in Week 5, where he recorded five catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns, Moore looks poised for another strong performance. The Jaguars surrendered 291 total yards and two touchdowns to the Indianapolis Colts' receivers in Week 5, and they have allowed the second-most receiving yards to wideouts this season. Given his recent breakout, Moore is a must-start in this favorable matchup. Add him to your lineup and hope for another standout showing.

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Keenan Allen Oct 12 7:30am ET
Keenan Allen

Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen is looking to rebound this Sunday in Chicago against a notably weak Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. After a quiet performance last week, where he recorded just three receptions for 33 yards, Allen is hoping for a more impactful outing in Week 6. The Jaguars recently allowed 291 total yards and two touchdowns to the Colts' wide receivers, and they have given up the second-most receiving yards to opponents this season. Allen has been anticipating his breakout game with the Bears, and this matchup presents a great opportunity. While it's reasonable to start Allen if needed, it would be preferable to see him deliver a standout performance before fully committing him to your lineup.

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Courtland Sutton Oct 12 7:30am ET
Courtland Sutton

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton will have a low fantasy ceiling and floor for a Week 6 matchup against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6. After going for three catches, 60 yards and his first touchdown of the year in the Week 4 win over the New York Jets, Sutton had a quiet two catches for 32 yards in last week's win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. He's currently the WR53 in half-PPR scoring and has gone into double-digit fantasy points (half PPR) just twice in five contests. On top of it, the Chargers defense has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR points per game (19.0) to the receiver position through five weeks (four games). The only thing good Sutton has going for him is his 26.3% target share; he currently ranks tied for 12th among wideouts with 41 total targets. But he's caught only 17 of those targets for 224 yards and a touchdown and should be considered a touchdown-dependent WR4/flex in lineups this Sunday against what has been a lockdown defense so far.

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Rome Odunze Oct 12 7:30am ET
Rome Odunze

Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze is poised for a bounce-back performance this Sunday against a vulnerable Jacksonville Jaguars secondary. Last week, he had a quieter outing by his standards, catching five passes for 40 yards against the Carolina Panthers. However, he has a great opportunity to rebound against the Jaguars, who recently allowed 291 total yards and two touchdowns to the Colts' wide receivers in Week 5. The Jaguars have also given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts this season. Although it's a high-risk play, Odunze has the potential to deliver big numbers against a weak secondary, as he demonstrated against the Colts. If you're dealing with injuries or bye weeks, consider starting Odunze as a borderline flex option in this favorable matchup.

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Jaleel McLaughlin Oct 12 7:20am ET
Jaleel McLaughlin

Denver Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin has very little fantasy upside heading into a Week 6 matchup against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers, a defense that has been stingy against the run in 2024. McLaughlin enters Sunday's game in Denver as the RB45 in half-PPR scoring as the backup to Javonte Williams in one of the lower-scoring offenses in the NFL. The 24-year-old has managed to find the end zone twice (one rushing, one receiving) in five games while averaging a weak 3.3 yards per carry on 33 rushing attempts. The potential addition of rookie Audric Estime (ankle) to the backfield this weekend is also bad news for McLaughlin moving forward. He's just not getting enough weekly touches to matter much in fantasy and hasn't been efficient at all with the touches he's been afforded. McLaughlin is only rostered in 19% of Yahoo leagues is an RB4/flex, at best, in deeper leagues.

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Caleb Williams Oct 12 7:20am ET
Caleb Williams

This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams presents a high-risk, high-reward option as he goes up against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars. In Week 5, Williams completed 20 of 29 passes for 304 yards and two touchdowns, managing to avoid turnovers. This performance marks the second time he has surpassed 300 passing yards in three weeks, and it was his third straight week without an interception. After his standout game, he now faces the Jaguars, who allow an NFL-high 287.7 passing yards per game, providing Williams with an enticing opportunity. However, he'll have to contend with talented pass rushers like Travon Walker, who leads the team with five sacksincluding three in Week 5and Josh Hines-Allen, who has two sacks so far this season. The Jaguars have struggled to generate a pass rush and have yet to record an interception this year. This matchup sets the stage for Williams to excel, making him a strong candidate as a borderline QB1 in London.

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D'Andre Swift Oct 12 7:20am ET
D'Andre Swift

The Chicago Bears' running back, D'Andre Swift, is a solid borderline RB2 for Sunday's matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which presents a favorable opportunity. Last week, he delivered one of his best performances of the season, tallying 21 carries for 73 yards, a touchdown, and two receptions for 47 yards. Swift has hit his stride over the past two weeks, with rushing totals of 93 and 73 yards, scoring a touchdown in each game and adding a combined 114 receiving yards. However, a concern for Swift owners is that he has lost the goal-line role to Roschon Johnson, who vultured two touchdowns last week. It wouldn't be surprising to see Johnson receive more opportunities again this week, given a potentially similar game script. Start Swift confidently in this favorable matchup, but be aware that Johnson could limit his upside.

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Javonte Williams Oct 12 7:00am ET
Javonte Williams

Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams had his best fantasy output of the season in the Week 5 win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders with 13.6 half-PPR points, but don't be surprised if he regresses this Sunday against the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers. The Bolts D has allowed 94 rushing yards per game (sixth fewest) and 16.4 half-PPR points to RBs (seventh-fewest) so far in 2024 and are coming off their bye week. Williams has been more productive running the football in the last two weeks, but on the season as a whole, he's averaged a career-low-tying 3.6 yards per carry. The good news is that he's still Denver's clear lead back over Jaleel McLaughlin, but rookie Audric Estime (ankle) could enter the picture this weekend and complicate things down the road. Williams has had double-digit carries in three of five games in 2024, but the efficiency has been lacking in a weak offense. Consider him a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in Week 6.

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Bo Nix Oct 12 6:50am ET
Bo Nix

Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix should be treated as a low-end QB2 in fantasy in a Week 6 divisional matchup at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are coming off their bye week. Nix threw for a measly 60 yards in the Week 4 upset win over the New York Jets but was more efficient in last week's win over the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders, throwing for 206 yards and two touchdowns. The 24-year-old has shown improvement during the team's current three-game winning streak with a 3:0 TD-to-interception ratio, but he averaged just 5.48 yards gained per pass attempt during that span and will be facing a Bolts defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs through five weeks. Nix doesn't exactly have excellent weapons on offense to take the pressure off of him and enters Week 6 tied with Trevor Lawrence in overall fantasy points as the QB17.

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Baker Mayfield Oct 12 6:00am ET
Baker Mayfield

The New Orleans Saints D/ST can be avoided in Week 6 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What started out as a unit that exceeded expectations in the first three weeks of the season has since petered out. In Weeks 1 through 3, the Saints averaged 3.6 sacks and 2.3 takeaways per game. Over their last two games, those figures dropped to 1.5 and 1.0, respectively. Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield has been on a heater to start the season and has 11 touchdowns to two interceptions coming into the NFC South matchup. While he has been sacked 16 times already this season, Tampa's offensive line showed a massive improvement in Week 5, allowing just three pressures (including one sack) against the Falcons. Even if the Saints are able to get to Mayfield, the Buccaneers' offense is scoring 25.4 points per game and is a top-five team in preventing turnovers. Fantasy managers in need of a D/ST should shop the wire for a unit with a better matchup in Week 6.

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Wan'Dale Robinson Oct 12 4:20am ET
Wan'Dale Robinson

New York Giants wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson has been a reliable target this season, posting 32 receptions for 230 yards and two touchdowns on 47 targets. In Week 5's win against Seattle, Robinson had six catches for 36 yards and a touchdown, stepping up with Malik Nabers sidelined. Heading into a Week 6 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, Robinson faces a defense that ranks 18th against the pass, allowing 214 passing yards per game and 10 receiving touchdowns. Given the injury to Nabers, Robinson's high target volume, and the Bengals' vulnerability to short-yardage receivers, Robinson is a solid PPR option, making him a strong flex play this week.

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Blake Grupe Oct 12 4:10am ET
Blake Grupe

New Orleans Saints kicker Blake Grupe went without a field goal attempt for the first time this season in Week 5 against the Kansas City Chiefs. Grupe went 1-for-2 on extra point attempts in the game, making it his second missed point through the first five weeks of the season. Grupe's sophomore season started with a bang as he hit four field goals (including two 50-yarders) in Week 1 and benefited from the Saints' early offensive explosion by knocking home 10 extra points over their first two games. However, Grupe has not reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 1, and there's no reason to believe he is due for a big turnout in Week 6. The expected point total for the NFC South matchup against the Buccaneers is a mere 42 points, which is among the lowest on Sunday's slate. Grupe is not a bad option, per se, but fantasy managers can probably find a more promising option elsewhere.

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Chris Olave Oct 12 4:00am ET
Chris Olave

Expectations for New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave will have to be tempered in Week 6 with Derek Carr (oblique) lost to injury. Carr's fill-in, rookie Spencer Rattler, offered some reassurance in comments to the media after being named the starter when he stated his intent to feed Olave the ball. That would be a welcome change from Week 5, when Olave was targeted four times, making two catches for a season-low 10 receiving yards, his worst game since his two-catch, 11-yard performance in Week 1. In the three weeks between, Olave gave fantasy managers more of what they were hoping for when they drafted him, catching 18 of his 22 targets in that span and racking up at least 81 yards in each game. There is no denying Olave's talent but his success is still contingent on how Rattler performs in his professional debut. Fantasy managers should also be aware that Tampa's heavy utilization of zone coverages favors Rashid Shaheed (hip) more than it does Olave. Olave rates as a risky WR3 in Week 6 given the situation in New Orleans.

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Juwan Johnson Oct 12 4:00am ET
Juwan Johnson

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson saw season highs in targets, receptions, and yards in Week 5 against the Kansas City Chiefs. The fifth-year veteran caught all five balls thrown his way for 31 receiving yards, bringing his 2024 totals to nine receptions for 70 yards. Johnson may yet again see more involvement in the passing game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6. Taysom Hill (ribs) has been ruled out and while he isn't utilized as a traditional tight end his absence does leave the door open for more opportunities for others. With Derek Carr (oblique) sidelined due to injury, Spencer Rattler might look for the big-bodied tight end as a safety valve as is often the case for rookie quarterbacks. Even with the allowances for optimism, the fact of the matter is that Johnson is not a priority in the Saints' offense. He rates as a low-end TE2 in Week 6 and should be avoided in most leagues.

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