Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz enters the team's Week 17 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday on a streak of five straight games without missing a single kick. Since having a potential game-winning field goal blocked against the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10, Lutz has made all 11 of his field-goal attempts and all 19 of his extra points in the last five games. He's currently the No. 5 fantasy kicker in 2024 and has made 90.6% (29-for-32) of his field-goal tries over 15 games for the Broncos. He's been as reliable as they come and has pretty much been in the mix as a weekly top-12 kicking option for fantasy managers since midway through the season. The Bengals defense allows the fifth-most points per game (26.2), but they're also allowing only 6.7 fantasy points per game to kickers. Lutz may not be the best fantasy option in Week 17, but he should have a high floor.
From RotoBaller
With injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, Arizona Cardinals running back Michael Carter has a huge range of possibilities in Week 17 against the L.A. Rams that varies from remaining on the practice squad to being the team's starter. Both James Conner (knee) and Trey Benson (ankle) are questionable to play in the game, and with Arizona officially eliminated from playoff contention, the team doesn't have much incentive to rush two players under contract next year back into action now. Last week, Carter earned 10 touches after Conner's injury, five of which were catches. He holds some streaming appeal, particularly for managers relying upon Conner, but they'll have to check in before game time Saturday to see who is active for Arizona.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie wide receiver Devaughn Vele scored his second touchdown of the year in last Thursday night's loss to the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers, but fantasy managers should have more reliable options to choose from for their flex spot this Saturday when the Broncos take on the Cincinnati Bengals on the road. The Bengals defense is ripe for the picking -- they allow 26.2 points per game -- but Vele's lack of consistent opportunities in Denver's passing attack make him far too risky to rely on with championships on the line in most fantasy leagues in Week 17. While the 27-year-old seventh-round selection did find paydirt in LA last week, he only caught two passes for 21 yards. The previous week in the win over the Colts, Vele failed to catch his lone target, and the week before that against Cleveland he caught only one pass for 16 yards.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson is a low-end WR5 option with his team set to take on the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17. The sophomore has been one of the middle-ground receivers who is just productive enough to hold onto in deeper leagues, but without the breakout potential to warrant starting on a weekly basis. Wilson ranks 55th among PPR receivers, doesn't have a top-25 finish this year, and is now on a team playing meaningless games to close out the season. The Rams rank 24th against fantasy receivers, so there is some matchup potential, but mostly in formats with three-plus flex spots.
From RotoBaller
For at least another week, Chad Ryland will maintain the starting kicker role with the Arizona Cardinals, but managers should still look for another option with the Cards playing the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17. The second-year kicker has filled in nicely for the injured Matt Prater (knee), connecting on 25 of 29 field-goal attempts and all 21 extra points. Though Ryland's performance hasn't been the issue, Arizona is beaten up at running back with both James Conner (knee) and Trey Benson (ankle), and now that they're officially eliminated from the playoffs, this is a meaningless game for them. For managers still playing, seeking a better kicker situation is the smart move.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals running back DeeJay Dallas may see some added snaps on Saturday since James Conner (knee) and Trey Benson (ankle) are both considered questionable. Dallas received one target and no carries in their last game against the Panthers, but he did turn it into a touchdown. That was his first offensive touchdown since 2021. The last time he started a game was in 2020 with the Seahawks, and his two starts produced mixed results. The Los Angeles Rams are in the middle of the pack against the opposing backfields as they allow 20.0 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats. Dallas, even if he gets extra opportunities, isn't a reliable option for fantasy managers looking to win their championship.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. has been more productive in recent weeks but will still be hard to trust in fantasy championship matchups in most leagues in Week 17 when the Broncos travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals on Saturday in a game with huge playoff implications for both teams. Mims has scored both of his touchdowns on the year in the last five games and also has at least 40 yards in four of his last five games, including a 100-yard performance in Week 13 against the Cleveland Browns. However, the 22-year-old second-year wideout played a season-high 47% of the snaps in last week's loss to the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers, and the most targets he's seen in a game in 2024 is five. Mims has plenty of big-play ability with the ball in his hands and will be facing a vulnerable Bengals defense, but his lack of consistent involvement in the offense makes him a flex play to avoid in most leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Arizona Cardinals defense/special teams should be left on waivers ahead of a Week 17 meeting against the Los Angeles Rams. Aside from having their full rotation of dangerous skill players in running back Kyren Williams and receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Rams have been adept at limiting negative plays, ranking in the top 10 in the league in sack rate and turnover rate. Conversely, Arizona ranks in the bottom 10 in scoring percentage allowed, yards per rushing attempt, and turnover percentage. With most leagues in the championship round, there's no reason to risk playing the Cardinals in this matchup.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has had quite the rollercoaster ride of a rookie season, especially in terms of fantasy football. He's finished as a WR3 or better in six weeks this season but has finished outside of the top 50 in seven weeks. Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals aren't going downfield very often, which directly affects Harrison's value. In Week 17, they'll try to play spoiler against the Los Angeles Rams. While the Rams allow an average of 27.8 fantasy points per game to wideouts, their defense has improved in the second half of the season. They've only allowed one touchdown in the last two games, which leaves Harrison as a flex play in this matchup.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride may still be looking for his first receiving touchdown of the season, but he sits at the TE4 on the year in half-PPR formats. In Week 16, he posted his first finish outside of TE1 territory since Week 7. After some strong words about how his team played that week, McBride is sure to bounce back against the Los Angeles Rams who give up an average of 10.5 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. He's received around a 25% target share through this season, and there isn't any reason for that to change. Fantasy managers can still consider McBride a must-start, especially in PPR leagues.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has had quite the rough stretch over his past seven games and is currently the QB11 on the season. Since Week 9, he's finished as a QB1 just two times, a QB2 three times, and finished even worse in the other two. They face off against their divisional foe, the Los Angeles Rams, in Week 17, and they've been improving on the defensive side of the ball. Murray finished as the overall QB1 the last time these two teams faced off in Week 2, but the tides have changed considerably. Murray holds QB2 value going into this matchup.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift was significantly involved in both the run and pass game in Thursday's 6-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. The former Philadelphia Eagle rusher touched the ball 16 times on Thursday, turning 12 carries to 53 rushing yards while catching four passes for 28 receiving yards in Thursday's defeat. Week 17 continued Swift's streak of double-digit touches, as he has been trusted to handle the ball frequently in every game this season. The former Georgia Bulldog will likely continue to dominate backfield touches next week as the Bears will end their season on the road in Week 18 against the Green Bay Packers.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore was heavily involved within the offense in Thursday's 6-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. The former Carolina Panther receiver had six catches on eight targets for 54 yards receiving while adding eight yards rushing on two carries. However, he could not find the end zone for the fourth consecutive game. Despite his scoring drought, Moore continues to be a focal point for the Bears, as he has had at least six receptions for the seventh consecutive game -- the second-longest active streak in the NFL. Overall, he has caught 89 passes for 880 yards and five touchdowns over 16 games in 2024. Moore will likely continue to be heavily involved in the regular season finale against the Green Bay Packers.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet delivered a solid floor in Week 17 against the Chicago Bears. Seattle could not get much going on offense all night long. After a fast start from Charbonnet, the Bears started to figure out Seattle's running game and limited him to just 57 rushing yards on 3.8 yards per carry. Charbonnet salvaged his fantasy day by adding three receptions for 19 yards. It was not the day many fantasy managers were hoping for. Charbonnet was in a great position to deliver RB1 value this week. His struggles were a microcosm of The Seahawks' struggle as a whole. Despite the offensive struggles, Charbonnet was the lone bright spot of the Seahawks offensive players who were likely to start in fantasy lineups this week. None of either quarterback Geno Smith or wide receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba or DK Metcalf were usable fantasy assets this week. Charbonnet projects to remain heavily involved in Week 18 against the Rams. If running back Kenneth Walker III (ankle) were to miss another game, Charbonnet could bounce back in a big way next week.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks tight end Noah Fant led the team in receiving on Thursday night against the Chicago Bears. Fant was a considerable safety valve for quarterback Geno Smith all game long. The Seahawks only scored six points en route to an ugly win over the Bears. Fant was the lone bright spot. He delivered near double-digit fantasy points for any fantasy managers that threw a dart at Fant. Even so, throughout this season, Fant has been far more important to the success of the Seahawks as opposed to fantasy managers. It was nice to see him break loose a couple of times in Week 17. However, his final stat line of four receptions for 43 yards was nothing to write home about. Look for Fant's role to remain significant in Week 18. Still, Fant's touchdown upside is severely capped and Week 17 marked just his fifth-highest yardage total on the season.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf did not carry his momentum from Week 16 into Week 17. Metcalf caught three passes for 42 yards on Thursday night against the Chicago Bears. In Metcalf's defense, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith did not play well in this game. The offense only scored six points, and Smith only threw for 160 yards. It continued a tough stretch for Metcalf which includes one touchdown since Week 7 and no 100-yard receiving games over that same span. Seattle should generate more fantasy output in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams for fantasy managers whose championships go into next week. The conversation about Metcalf is sure to be interesting next season. He started the year hot as a top-10 wide receiver. Upon returning from his sprained MCL in Week 11, Metcalf has been borderline unplayable. The emergence of wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has tempered Metcalf's output. However, there is plenty of volume in this offense to go around. Perhaps the knee injury hampered Metcalf more than it seemed.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba recorded a huge dud in Week 17 against the Chicago Bears. JSN caught three of six targets for 32 yards. The Seahawks could not get anything going on offense, and JSN suffered as a result. Quarterback Geno Smith only threw for 160 passing yards which limited the output of Seattle's pass catchers. He also missed Smith-Njigba on a couple of easy throws across the middle that would have boosted JSN's output. Smith-Njigba still led the team in targets this week as he continues to operate as the No. 1 in this offense. The dud is not concerning considering how well he had been playing recently and that the Seahawks' offense struggled as a whole. It is disappointing timing in the middle of the fantasy playoffs. For fantasy managers with championships in Week 18, Smith-Njigba should be able to bounce back against the Los Angeles Rams next week.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith threw for just 160 yards and no touchdowns in Week 17 against the Chicago Bears. Seattle's offense only scored six points on the day as a result. Smith was 17/23 passing, but three and outs and short drives characterized Seattle's day. Smith also missed several easy throws throughout the game that would have moved the chains. The output was surprising considering Smith came into Week 17 at No. 3 in passing yards in the league. Smith's dud also significantly affected Seattle's pass catchers. No one on the Seahawks surpassed four receptions or 43 receiving yards. Seattle managed to come out of the week with a much-needed win. However, it was an ugly win at that. Smith will look to lead the Seahawks to the playoffs with better numbers in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze had a disappointing outing in Thursday's 6-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. The rookie wideout saw four targets from fellow rookie Caleb Williams, turning those targets to 15 yards receiving on one catch. Odunze struggled to find consistency on the year, as did nearly every Bears player. The 22-year-old has racked up 52 catches for 716 yards and three touchdowns over 16 games in 2024. Odunze will hope to end the season on a high note, though he may continue to struggle as his Bears play the Green Bay Packers in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen was reasonably involved within the offense in Thursday's 6-3 loss against the Seattle Seahawks, though disappointed in the production. The 32-year-old pass catcher tied for a team-high eight targets, though only caught five passes for 25 yards receiving. Allen struggled to gain momentum throughout the game as the defense swarmed him on every reception. Entering Thursday's contest, the veteran wideout was coming in hot, catching 15 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns in the previous two games. Overall, Allen has caught 67 passes for 719 yards and seven touchdowns over 14 games during his first season in Chicago. Allen will hope to bounce back in Week 18 as his Bears will end the season against the Green Bay Packers.
From RotoBaller