Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 11
Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson is a speculative play in Week 11 as he faces the Green Bay Packers. With the Bears continuing their limited backfield rotation, Johnson is more of a dart throw for fantasy managers in deeper leagues or those looking for a potential sleeper. This week, the Bears made a significant change by firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on Tuesday, just nine games into his tenure. The team promoted passing game coordinator Thomas Brown to take over as offensive coordinator, hoping this coaching change will help improve the offense's overall efficiency. Ideally, a more productive offense would increase goal-line opportunities for Johnson, who has flashed potential when given chances. However, the Bears' offensive line is still dealing with significant injuries and is unlikely to be at full strength this Sunday, which hurts the offense as a whole. Given these concerns, Johnson should be viewed as a deep-league desperation play, with his best hope being a touchdown or two to salvage his fantasy value.
From RotoBaller
This week, Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is a risky WR3 option in fantasy football. After a frustrating performance in Week 10 against the New England Patriots, where Moore posted just three catches for 24 yards and seemed visibly frustrated with his role in the offense, he'll be looking to rebound. This week, a significant change for the Bears is the firing of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who was just nine games into his tenure. In his place, the team promoted passing game coordinator Thomas Brown to take over the offensive reins, hoping his fresh approach would spark a more efficient and dynamic offense. This could lead to more opportunities for Moore, but the offensive line still deals with injuries. It likely won't be at full strength on Sunday, a significant concern for the Bears' offensive production. To make matters worse, Moore will face a tough matchup against the Green Bay Packers, where he'll likely see star cornerback Jaire Alexander shadowing him throughout the game. While Moore's talent remains undeniable, his usage and production are uncertain this week, and if you're stuck starting him, you'll be hoping for a turnaround under the new offensive scheme. Ideally, you should consider other options if available and use this week as a chance to see how the coaching change impacts Moore's role moving forward.
From RotoBaller
This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams presents a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option as he prepares to take on the Green Bay Packers. After a tough outing in Week 10 against the New England Patriots, where Williams completed just 16 of 30 passes for a meager 120 yards and failed to throw any touchdowns, he's looking to redeem himself and showcase his potential. Adding to the drama, the Bears made a significant move this week by firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who was just nine games into his tenure with the rookie quarterback. Waldron's struggles to establish an effective offensive game plan prompted the change, and now the Bears are hoping a new direction will help unlock Williams' playmaking ability. The team promoted passing game coordinator Thomas Brown to replace Waldron, which signals a shift in offensive philosophy. However, it's important to note that the Bears' offensive line is still banged up and likely won't be at full strength on Sunday, following a dismal performance where they allowed nine sacks in their previous game. Given the uncertainty surrounding the offense and the ongoing issues with the offensive line, starting Williams this week carries significant risk. Proceed with caution, especially in leagues where you need a more reliable QB option.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift is positioned to be a solid RB2 option in fantasy this Sunday as the Bears face off against the Green Bay Packers. After an average Week 10 performance, in which Swift rushed for 59 yards on 16 carries, he's primed for another productive outing. This week, however, there's a major shake-up in Chicago's offensive strategy. The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on Tuesday, just nine games into his tenure, hoping to revitalize the struggling offense. With Waldron out, passing game coordinator Thomas Brown has been promoted to offensive coordinator, and the hope is that his fresh perspective will lead to more balanced play-calling and, ultimately, better overall production. This could help take some of the load off Swift's shoulders and open up more opportunities for him in the red zone. That said, the Bears' offensive line is still dealing with significant injuries and is unlikely to be at full strength, which could limit the team's overall offensive effectiveness. Despite these challenges, Swift should remain a reliable option in all fantasy formats, with the potential for positive regression as the offense adjusts under new leadership.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints jack of all trades Taysom Hill should have another week of modest usage with running back Jamaal Williams (groin) listed as out for the upcoming game against the Cleveland Browns. Hill has operated as the primary backup to Alvin Kamara with both Williams and Kendre Miller (hamstring) sidelined by injuries recently. Over the last three games, Hill has eight receptions for 98 yards and 13 rushing attempts for 53 yards and a touchdown. Last week, Hill was a holding penalty away from adding an 88-yard touchdown reception to his resume. The Browns have not been particularly generous to opposing tight ends this season but Hill does not fit the typical mold for the position. His consistent use out of the backfield (4.5 carries per game) elevates his floor and his touchdown potential keeps him in the running for a top-12 finish week-to-week. Hill makes for a solid play in Week 11 with so much of the Saints' offense ailing.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints kicker Blake Grupe was perfect in Week 10, converting both of his field goal attempts and both extra point tries. He scored the first points of the game against the Falcons with a 38-yard field goal in the second quarter and hit another from 26 yards out in the third quarter. On the season he has missed just one of his 19 field goal attempts and is now 21-for-23 on extra points. Grupe offers a solid floor, rarely straying far from his average 7.5 fantasy points per game. In Week 11, the Saints face the Browns, who have offered little to opposing kickers this season, though that may be because they are allowing teams to reach the end zone more often than they are stopping them short, particularly in close range. Cleveland has only seen five field goals attempted at a distance of 39 yards or fewer. They have also had the good fortune of opponents going 8-for-14 from 40 yards out or more, with just one block to their credit. Grupe is 8-for-9 from that range. Grupe isn't an option to get excited about but a top-12 finish isn't out of the question. He is worth a look for fantasy managers seeking a kicker in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Injuries to the New Orleans Saints wide receiver room cleared a path up the depth chart for rookie Mason Tipton. With Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (knee), and Bub Means (ankle) on injured reserve, and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (shoulder) out for Week 10, there seemed to be ample opportunity for Tipton to soak up some targets. Sadly, that wasn't the case as Tipton did not draw a single target in last week's game against the Falcons. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was the main beneficiary of the Saints' lack of receiving talent, catching three balls for 109 yards and two scores against Atlanta, while running back Alvin Kamara was the preferred option on short routes. In Week 11, MVS can be expected to remain the team's deep option and if Wilson shakes his questionable tag, Tipton will have a hard time commanding targets against him or Kamara. He can safely be left on the waiver wire.
From RotoBaller
The New Orleans Saints have been rocked by injuries over the last several weeks. Wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (knee), and Bub Means (ankle) are all on injured reserve, and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (shoulder) has missed two of the team's last three games and has a questionable tag for Sunday. With so many pass catchers ailing, one would expect that it would provide others ample opportunity for a bump in production. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for tight end Juwan Johnson. Over the last three weeks he has seven catches for 111 yards on nine targets. His last trip to the end zone came in Week 1 and his odds to change that against the Browns on Sunday are slim. In 2024, Cleveland has allowed just one touchdown to opposing tight ends and the third-fewest receptions to the position. Johnson can stay on the wire in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara is in line for another week of heavy usage in Week 11 against the Cleveland Browns. As injuries have chipped away at the Saints' depth at both wide receiver and running back, the team's reliance on Kamara has only grown stronger. Over the last three weeks he has been targeted on 41.9% of routes run and has 18.7 carries per game, compared to 25.3% and 15.9 over the first seven weeks of the season. The Browns have allowed the fewest receptions to opposing running backs this season but, given the lack of other options, the Saints will try to extend Kamara's streak of at least five receptions which goes back to Week 4. Kamara has not made it into the end zone since Week 6 but that could change against the Browns, who have allowed nine touchdowns on the ground in 2024, including three in the two games prior to their Week 10 bye. As usual, Kamara is a must-start in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram is still a starting-caliber option in fantasy lineups, but with Mac Jones at quarterback, his upside is limited against the Detroit Lions. After six catches for 40 yards in Week 10 against the Vikings, unless Engram scores a touchdown, it is hard to imagine the veteran tight end having a big day. After just seven points against the Vikings, it is hard to imagine the Jaguars offense as a whole performing well. The Lions are better against the pass against the run, but it is likely the defensive line causes problems for Jones just as the Vikings line did. Engram should still be started in fantasy lineups, but he is a bit more touchdown-reliant in fantasy than usual this week against the Lions.
From RotoBaller
One of the biggest surprises of Week 10 was Marquez Valdes-Scantling. In his second game with the New Orleans Saints, the speedy veteran caught three passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns. MVS has pushed up the depth chart thanks to the glut of injuries dealt to the Saints' wide receiver room. Of the five wide receivers that started the season on the team's active roster only rookie Mason Tipton was left standing last week. The situation might remain the same in the upcoming matchup against the Browns, with Cedrick Wilson Jr. (shoulder) tagged as questionable. Tipton was not targeted at all last week as quarterback Derek Carr focused most of his attention on running back Alvin Kamara and utilized MVS as his field stretcher. The 30-year-old journeyman has a chance for a repeat performance against the Browns, as they have struggled against the deep ball and have given up 11 touchdowns to opposing wideouts in 2024. MVS is worth a look in deeper leagues with 14 or more teams.
From RotoBaller
In his second game back following a multi-week absence due to an oblique injury, New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr passed for a season high 269 yards against the Atlanta Falcons. Carr found success going deep, hitting wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling for gains of 40 yards (and a touchdown) and 67 yards. The duo also connected for a two-yard touchdown pass. The performance was reminiscent of Carr's work earlier this season with deep threat Rashid Shaheed (knee). In Week 11, Carr is going against the Cleveland Browns, who have struggled against the deep ball in 2024, allowing the fifth-most receptions of 20 air yards or more. It is hard to trust Carr as a starter in standard leagues but he should be a solid option in two-quarterback or superflex formats.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. has a chance for a work-horse role in Week 11 against the Detroit Lions. Tank Bigsby is out with an ankle injury after not practicing all week. Etienne Jr.'s only competition for touches this week is D'Ernest Johnson, who also happened to be limited at practice all week with a hamstring injury. The Lions are much weaker against the pass than the run, so the Clemson product may have an inefficient day on the ground, but he can salvage his fantasy day if he can get involved in the passing game. With Mac Jones at the helm, the box will be stacked more than usual, and Jones will likely need to rely on the short passing game. Etienne Jr. has a wide range of outcomes given his potential volume in Week 11.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones is difficult to trust as a fantasy option in Week 11 against the Detroit Lions. After a tough performance last week against the Minnesota Vikings, Jones shouldn't be on the fantasy radar. The Lions are a plus matchup, but after putting up just seven points last week, it's hard to fathom Jones as a good fantasy option in his second start of the season. The good news is that Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram are good to go, while Travis Etienne Jr. should be the primary back with Tank Bigsby out. Jones has decent weapons at his disposal, but until he shows he can lead a competent offense, he shouldn't be considered in fantasy lineups. Leave Jones on the bench in Week 11 against the Lions.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is having arguably his best season to date. The wideout has been on a roll and is coming off a potent Week 10 showing against the Ravens, when he caught 11 of his 17 targets for 254 yards and three touchdowns. While Tee Higgins (quadriceps) is cleared to return for Sunday's meeting with the Los Angeles Chargers, Chase's ceiling is higher than ever, despite a difficult game on the horizon. Keep him starting, obviously.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has had an MVP-caliber season. While the Bengals are sitting at a disappointing 4-6, the signal-caller has shined, leading the league in completions (246), yards (2,672), and touchdowns (24). Cincinnati can still make waves in the AFC, but the team will need a win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night. Fortunately for Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase has also thrived during the 2024-25 campaign. The same can be said for Chase Brown. Even better, Tee Higgins (quadriceps) will be back on the field in Week 11. With nine touchdown throws in the last two games, Burrow remains a must-start, despite a challenging matchup on tap.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey has a tough matchup in a Week 11 game against the Cincinnati Bengals. McConkey is in the middle of a very solid rookie season, as he is currently the overall fantasy WR31 in points per game despite playing on an offense that only recently decided to start throwing the ball. McConkey is tied for the team lead in end zone targets and leads the team overall with a 21.8% target share. This week could be tough on McConkey, though. The Bengals defense has been top-10 against slot receivers this season in both receiving yards per game and total fantasy points per game. McConkey is shaping up to be more of a floor FLEX option than a true WR2 this time.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston is set for a strong performance in a Week 11 game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Johnston has been the overall WR37 in fantasy this season, but he has scored a touchdown in two straight games and matches up well with the Bengals defense. "QJ" ranks first on the Chargers yards per route run against defenses similar to Cincinnati's. They've allowed the third-most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers since Week 5. While the running game might struggle against a solid Bengals front, the pass game could thrive, making Johnston a WR3 with clear WR2 upside this week.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer is not worth using in a starting spot in most fantasy formats in Week 11 when the Chargers take on the Cincinnati Bengals. Palmer has been playing well in his "real life" role on the Chargers offense, but it absolutely has not translated to much fantasy value. He's been targeted just 28 times since the season began, making 18 catches. He's had a few deep balls thrown his way and that could always become a huge play that can win a fantasy week, but he's a boom-or-bust option with a lot less boom than others in similar roles. He can be left on the bench in deeper fantasy leagues and on the waiver wire in standard ones.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers tight end Will Dissly has an outstanding matchup in a Week 11 game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Dissly has seen at least five targets in four of the past five games, and has totaled 32 targets and 24 catches in that span. He's become a key part of the short passing game, and against defenses like Cincinnati's, Dissly leads the team in first-read share and is second in yards per route run. The Bengals defense has allowed opposing tight ends to thrive, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. It should be a high floor game for Dissly at worst, with one of his higher possible ceilings of the season.
From RotoBaller