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FFL: Week 1 | NFL: Week 1

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Starts/Sits: Week 1

Player Notes
Alexander Mattison Sep 9 11:40am ET
Alexander Mattison

As expected, Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White spearheaded the Raiders' ground game with 13 carries for 44 yards while catching both of his targets for two yards in Sunday's 22-10 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. His performance was lackluster, with minimal gains and a fumble that didn't help his case. Alexander Mattison out-snapped White 36 to 23 in Week 1. Despite leading in carries, his efficiency was poor, and the fumble could affect his future touches. It doesn't help fantasy managers that Mattison caught a 31-year touchdown from Gardner Minshew II. White's role might not shrink immediately, but his fantasy stock is shaky. Facing a tough Ravens defense in week two, White is considered a flex option with caution; his value could dip if he doesn't secure the ball better.

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Jake Ferguson Sep 9 11:40am ET
Jake Ferguson

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson left Sunday's 33-17 Week 1 win over the Cleveland Browns with a knee injury. Many feared the talented tight end suffered a season-ending injury. Thankfully, tests revealed that Ferguson only suffered a bone bruise and an MCL sprain. The team is listing him as week-to-week, meaning he could return sooner than later. Yet, Ferguson could get placed on injured reserve later in the week, knocking him out for at least four games. 2023 second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker is the most likely candidate to replace Ferguson as Dallas' starting tight end. He is worth a speculative add off the waiver wire. However, Schoonmaker is not someone fantasy players should start in Week 2 unless they are extremely desperate.

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Gardner Minshew II Sep 9 11:30am ET
Gardner Minshew II

In a game where every play counted, Las Vegas quarterback Gardner Minshew II managed 257 passing yards with a 31-yard touchdown to Alexander Mattison. However, his Raiders debut was marred by an interception and a critical fumble in the Raiders' 22-10 defeat to the Chargers. His stats were solid, distributing the ball well among his receivers, yet the fumble was a turning point, gifting the Chargers points. Next week, with the stingy Baltimore Ravens defense on tap, Minshew's role as a facilitator might benefit his receivers more than himself. He's a risky start in fantasy, suitable for deeper or superflex, with his ceiling limited by turnovers.

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Haason Reddick Sep 9 10:33am ET
Haason Reddick

New York Jets EDGE Haason Reddick will forfeit $800,000 for missing Week 1 and will forfeit $800,000 more for every other game he misses. This is on top of $5 million of NFL-mandated fines.

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Puka Nacua Sep 9 10:30am ET
Puka Nacua

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (knee) will undergo testing on his knee Monday afternoon after leaving Sunday night's game against the Detroit Lions. According to Ian Rapoport, the star receiver is scheduled to get some testing done after injuring the same knee that he tweaked during the preseason. Nacua was able to come back for one play in Sunday night's game, but ultimately left again and did not return. There still hasn't been any word or speculation on what's wrong with his knee, so these tests should provide a clear picture of the extent of the injury. If he'll need to miss some time, Tyler Johnson did a good job filling in against the Lions, while Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington may also see some more snaps.

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Tony Pollard Sep 9 10:30am ET
Tony Pollard

Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard rushed 16 times for 82 yards and a score, adding three receptions for 12 yards in the loss to Chicago. Pollard started the game as the Titans top back and out-carried Tyjae Spears by a surprisingly large margin, 16-4, right after the Titans coaching staff made a point that the backfield would be split evenly. The actual snap counts were a bit closer with Pollard taking 65% and Spears with 45%, but Pollard getting twice as many touches as Spears was definitely unexpected. Game script could have been part of the story here, with Tennessee attempting to grind the clock with a 17-0 lead going into the second half and utilizing the more punishing runner in Pollard to do so. The former Cowboy looked every bit of the dynamic player he was in Dallas a couple of years ago, highlighted by his 26-yard TD scamper where outraced the second level of the defense and cruised into the end zone untouched. Up next is a tough matchup with the New York Jets coming to town. .

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Will Levis Sep 9 10:20am ET
Will Levis

Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis went 19/32 for 127 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in a 24-17 loss to the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Levis also rushed nine times for 36 yards and lost a fumble. It was a forgettable start to Year 2 for the quarterback, who was constantly under pressure and indecisive with the football, which led to mostly stalled drives and turnovers on the afternoon. Levis also had one of the worst interceptions in recent memory, tossing the ball sideways while getting hit, which led to the game clinching pick-six in the fourth quarter. While Chicago has a great defense, it was an all-around poor performance from the sophomore quarterback who had all three of his turnovers in the last period, essentially giving the game away to the Bears who were held to zero offensive touchdowns in the game. Levis will really need to turn things around in Week 2, though the NFL's best pass defense is up next in the New York Jets.

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Calvin Ridley Sep 9 10:20am ET
Calvin Ridley

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley caught three of seven targets for 50 yards in a 24-17 loss at Chicago. On a day where the Titans struggled to move the ball through the air, Ridley was still able to have a decent afternoon with a 22% target share and over 50% of the Titans passing yards. It's promising for Ridley managers that he was the clear #1 target for this offense, but if quarterback Will Levis struggles to move the ball downfield like he did on Sunday, it will be hard to trust the former Jaguar. Ridley will look to build on this effort in Week 2 against a very stingy New York Jets secondary.

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Adonai Mitchell Sep 9 10:20am ET
Adonai Mitchell

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell didn't find much success in his first NFL regular season game but the potential remains high after seeing the second-most targets in their 29-27 loss to the Houston Texans. The rookie wideout received five targets but only caught one of them for two yards. The silver lining is that Anthony Richardson was looking for him at various depths down the field, and the accuracy of the throws was more to blame. Mitchell was able to get some separation from his defender and he'll likely grow into a bigger part of the offense as Richardson grows as well. He's a risky fantasy start at the moment but will look to get on the board in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers.

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Quentin Johnston Sep 9 10:00am ET
Quentin Johnston

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston didn't put together a standout performance in the opening win against the Las Vegas Raiders but established himself in the receiving order. The second-year wideout finished with three receptions for 38 yards on five targets. He had the second-most targets on the team, right after Ladd McConkey who received seven. The Chargers were in the lead for most of the second half while J.K. Dobbins had a huge day on the ground, so the passing game did take a backseat as seen by Justin Herbert's 26 attempts compared to 27 total carries. Johnston seems to be in line for more targets this year as the offense grows under the new coaching regime, but he would be more viable in deeper fantasy leagues.

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Joshua Karty Sep 9 9:50am ET
Joshua Karty

Los Angeles Rams rookie kicker Joshua Karty did not appear intimidated by a large crowd and raucous road atmosphere in his first NFL game at the Lions on Sunday night. The Stanford rookie made both of his field goals, including a 41-yarder, and buried both of his extra-point attempts. It was a good sign that Karty could be a viable fantasy kicker this season. He looked smooth and unfazed in both of his field goal attempts, albeit in a controlled indoor environment at Ford Field. There could be some growing pains along the way for Karty but he looks like an NFL-ready kicker as the Rams probably expected after selecting him with a sixth-round pick in this year's draft. With other solid kicker options out there, fantasy managers can take a bit of a wait-and-see approach with Karty, but he could end up being a useful fantasy option this season.

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Tyler Johnson Sep 9 9:46am ET
Tyler Johnson

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tyler Johnson took advantage of Puka Nacua (knee) leaving the game early with some big catches against the Lions on Sunday night. Johnson caught five of his seven targets for 79 yards, including a 63-yard catch and run when he stopped on a dime and turned a short pass into a long gain. The Minnesota Golden Gophers product stepped into the void opposite star receiver Cooper Kupp when Nacua left the contest. With Nacua set to undergo testing Monday on his right knee, Johnson could be a popular waiver-wire addition should Nacua be forced to miss any time. Demarcus Robinson also saw seven targets in the game but Johnson looked like the greater big-play threat.

Diontae Johnson Sep 9 9:45am ET
Diontae Johnson

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson caught just two his six targets for 19 yards in the team's loss to the New Orleans Saints. Johnson was the second most targeted pass-catcher, but was unable to connect with quarterback Bryce Young as the team struggled to move the ball on offense. Johnson was brought in to be a WR1 for Young, and did see encouraging enough usage to be a viable fantasy option moving forward. While it was a lackluster performance, Johnson can be considered a WR3 option in Week 2 when the Panthers take on the Los Angeles Chargers.

Javonte Williams Sep 9 9:45am ET
Javonte Williams

Dynasty | Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 23 rushing yards on eight carries, while catching one pass for no gain in Denver's opening day loss at Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: Yuck. Williams was out-carried by Jaleel McLaughlin 10-8, though neither of them looked particularly effective on the day. It's way too early to throw in the towel on Williams but this is a red flag after his disastrous 2023 season. Williams belongs on fantasy benches until Bo Nix can do enough to keep defenses honest as this Denver offense looks anemic at the moment.

Austin Ekeler Sep 9 9:44am ET
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Dynasty | Commanders running back Austin Ekeler had ten rushing yards, four catches, and 52 receiving yards in Washington's season-opening loss to Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: The concerning part here is the fact Ekeler had just six touches on the day and many of them came with the game far out of reach. Brian Robinson had 15 touches and seemed like the clear RB1 on this team today. If that continues, it's going to be very difficult for the former fantasy MVP to return to form or even provide any kind of value this season. At this point, Ekeler is looking the part of a roster clogger but we need to see this pattern to continue before putting that in stone.

Rico Dowdle Sep 9 9:44am ET
Rico Dowdle

Dynasty | Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle had 26 rushing yards, adding one catch for another six yards in a Dallas road victory against Cleveland on opening day. Dynasty Analysis: The Dallas offense looked good today but that was really because of Dak Prescott and the receiving corps more than Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott or anyone in the running game. Elliott out-touched Dowdle 12-9, but neither was particularly good on the day. This has the looks of a frustrating committee, at least at the beginning of the season.

Cooper Kupp Sep 9 9:40am ET
Cooper Kupp

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp turned back the clock a bit with a dominant game in the team's overtime loss at the Lions on Sunday night. With Puka Nacua (knee) forced to exit the game, Kupp was targeted early and often by Matthew Stafford. He saw a ridiculous 21 targets and caught 14 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. Kupp worked the short field relentlessly using pre-snap motion to perfection on a nine-yard touchdown catch. A healthy Kupp is still one of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL and his connection with Stafford along with the way Sean McVay and the Rams' coaching staff schemes him up, is a thing of beauty at times. Nacua came back for one play after being injured but was forced to leave the game and will undergo testing on his right knee on Monday. With his health in question, Kupp's status elevates even more. Kupp is a no-doubt WR1 while healthy and could be one of the best values of this year's fantasy drafts if his target share keeps up at this pace.

From RotoBaller

Jonnu Smith Sep 9 9:40am ET
Jonnu Smith

Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith posted a quiet performance in the first game with his new team. The veteran collected just seven yards after catching one of his two targets. Durham Smythe actually led the tight end group in targets with three while Julian Hill also received a target and caught that for six yards. Smith was only on the field for 20 of the team's 71 total offensive snaps according to Alain Poupart of Sports Illustrated. The general expectation was for Smith to become a key part of the offense after a solid year in Atlanta, but the Dolphins' offense remains built on speed with their star wide receivers and quick backfield. Smith will look to bounce back against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2.

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Kyren Williams Sep 9 9:30am ET
Kyren Williams

Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams dominated the workload out of the Rams' backfield against the Lions on Sunday night and found the end zone. Overall, Williams recorded 18 carries for 50 yards and a rushing score and caught all three of his targets for four yards. The most important note, however, was that Williams saw 67 snaps in the backfield compared to just seven for Ronnie Rivers and none from Blake Corum. That works out to 91 percent of snaps for the Notre Dame product, who was expected to see some of his workload cut into by Corum, the rookie out of Michigan. Against a tough Lions run defense, Williams struggled to 2.78 yards per carry, but the outlook is rosy for the talented and versatile running back because of the extremely large snap-share. While it is natural to think Corum will become more involved as the weeks go on, if Williams dominates touches like this he should be in line for some huge fantasy weeks.

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Tank Bigsby Sep 9 9:20am ET
Tank Bigsby

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby started off the season in a big way by getting a 50-50 split in carries with incumbent starter Travis Etienne Jr. The second-year back finished with 12 carries that went for 73 yards, but he didn't see any targets in the passing game. The good news for fantasy managers with stock in Bigsby is that his efficiency was much better than Etienne's with 6.1 yards per carry versus 3.7. Game script, the hot hand, and plenty of other factors will dictate whether or not this 50-50 split continues, so it could be difficult to judge when Bigsby will have his bigger games. As long as they're not playing from behind too often, this ground game is likely to get a lot of work moving forward.

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