Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
TFC Champion is Crowned
The New Orleans Saints are projected to be $50 million over the 2025 salary cap, so they are once again going to need to perform salary-cap gymnastics this offseason. Defensive end Cameron Jordan is a beloved and long-time member of the organization and has told ESPN's Dan Graziano he wants to finish his career in New Orleans. However, he turns 36 years old in July, has one year left on his current contract, and has a cap number of around $20 million in 2025. If the Saints don't want to approach Jordan with an extension, they could make him a post-June 1 cut to save $11 million in this year's cap. It will be a difficult decision on a player that has spent all 14 years of his NFL career with the Saints, but Jordan, an eight-time Pro Bowler, has seen his production fall off dramatically the last couple of years and has just six sacks in the last two seasons.
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The Carolina Panthers have said they are interested in working out an extension with cornerback Jaycee Horn that will keep him in Carolina long term, according to ESPN's Dan Graziano. The former first-rounder is scheduled to make $12.472 million in 2025 on his fifth-year option. Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II's four-year, $96 million deal last September is the target for top cornerbacks due for extensions, but it's unclear how high the Panthers will be willing to go for Horn. The 25-year-old defensive back has missed time due to injuries in his career -- he played in only three games in his rookie season and six games in 2023 -- but he was a first-time Pro Bowler in 2024 and has been a key defender when he's been healthy. Horn had a career-high 68 tackles (49 solo), his first two career sacks, five tackles for loss, one interception and 13 pass breakups in 15 starts last year.
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The Tennessee Titans will have top-30 visits with Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter, Colorado cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter, Miami quarterback Cam Ward and Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, as expected, before the start of free agency on March 12. The Titans hold the top pick in this year's NFL draft in April. Around six of the team's other top-30 visits will be for first-round options in case they trade down within the first round, and the other 20 will be for players they might look to draft in the later rounds this year. Aside from the top overall pick, Tennessee has the No. 35 selection in the second round, two fourth-round picks (one from Seattle), two fifth-rounders (one from the Chiefs), a sixth-round pick, and a seventh-round selection. Even though the Titans are expected to add a QB this year, it may not come with the No. 1 overall pick if they decide to trade for or sign a veteran signal-caller.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed write that the Los Vegas Raiders want a No. 1 wide receiver to pair with Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker. Depending on what happens with Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins -- he's expected to be franchise-tagged as the Bengals work out a long-term extension -- he'd be the top option for the Raiders if he's available via a trade. Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs (knee) are also available, but they aren't "X" receivers who have the size, speed and separation skills to thrive on the outside. The best chance for the Raiders to find one of those wideouts, since Higgins is probably off the table, might be in the upcoming NFL draft. Finding a No. 1 receiver won't matter all that much if the Raiders don't find the right quarterback to lead their offense moving forward, though. They have the No. 6 pick in the draft, but the new coaching staff prefers to find the right veteran QB.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White is believed to be available via trade this offseason if some teams want to take a chance on the former fourth-rounder in 2022 out of the University of Georgia, according to The Athletic's Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed. White had some great moments for the Raiders in 2023 before falling off last year to a scheme change while also ending the year on Injured Reserve due to a quadriceps injury. The 25-year-old was set to take over for Josh Jacobs as the Raiders' lead back in 2024, but that did not happen. White ended up playing in only eight games (five starts) in his third year in the NFL and carried the ball 65 times for 183 yards (career-low 2.8 yards per carry) for one rushing touchdown. He added six catches for 30 yards. A change of scenery would probably be best for White's fantasy stock, but he'd still likely be nothing more than a complementary back elsewhere.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed say that the Las Vegas Raiders prioritized trading for Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford because they aren't very high on Minnesota Vikings impending free-agent QB Sam Darnold or the other potential free agents such as the Pittsburgh Steelers' Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. However, according to league sources, there are members of the coaching staff who prefer adding a veteran signal-caller to taking a dice roll on a rookie QB. It makes sense because of the fact that this year's QB draft class isn't perceived to be very deep, and the only options worth drafting in the first round could be gone by the time the Raiders make their pick at No. 6 overall. The Raiders want to win now, but Darnold, who is coming off a career year with Minnesota, might be too expensive for their taste after he collapsed in the final two games in 2024.
From RotoBaller
According to league sources, the Las Vegas Raiders have had discussions with teams who have interest in tight end Michael Mayer. The team's second-round selection in 2023, Mayer hasn't had the type of impact the Raiders were hoping for, which is why they took Brock Bowers in the first round in 2024. Not only did Bowers become a first-team All-Pro in his rookie season, but Mayer had only 27 catches for 304 yards and two touchdowns in 14 games in his first year in 2023. He missed six games last season due to personal reasons and was barely heard from as Bowers excelled. It makes more sense for Vegas to trade Mayer for assets, and since he'll be on a team-friendly deal for two more years, there should be several teams that are interested. Mayer was completely off the fantasy radar in 2024, but he could resurface as a sleeper if he's traded to a team that utilizes him much more as a pass-catcher.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Rams and left tackle Alaric Jackson agreed to a three-year, $57 million extension that includes $35 million guaranteed on Thursday, sources tell FOX Sports' Jordan Schultz. Jackson will now remain in L.A. to protect the blind side of veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, who will also stay with the team after agreeing to a restructured deal. If he had reached free agency, Jackson would have been one of the top left tackles available on the market this offseason. It's a big day for the Rams' offense after they narrowly missed a shot at playing in the NFL Championship in 2024. The 26-year-old went undrafted out of the University of Iowa but eventually latched on with the Rams and made his NFL debut in 2021. He played in only 12 games his first two seasons but has started 29 games in L.A. the last two years.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders informed quarterback Desmond Ridder that they will not tender him an offer as a restricted free agent this offseason, a source tells NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Ridder will now hit the open market next month after playing in six games (one start) in his lone season for the Raiders in 2024. He went 52-for-85 for 458 passing yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions as a backup in Vegas. The 25-year-old former third-round selection (74th overall) by the Atlanta Falcons in 2022 out of the University of Cincinnati appeared in 19 games (17 starts) in his first two years in the NFL in Atlanta before the Falcons moved on. Ridder briefly latched on as a backup option with the Arizona Cardinals before joining the Raiders this past season. He has plenty of starting experience since entering the league, but Ridder will just be hoping for a chance to earn a backup gig somewhere else in 2025.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders are now expected to investigate veteran quarterback options that include free-agents Russell Wilson, Justin Fields and Sam Darnold, sources tell ESPN's Adam Schefter. The Raiders recently met with quarterback Matthew Stafford and reportedly offered him a two-year deal worth up to $90-100 million guaranteed, but Stafford instead chose to restructure his deal to stay in L.A. With Stafford now off the table, Vegas will turn to their backup options, including both of the Pittsburgh Steelers' impending free-agent signal-callers. Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew III are currently on the roster, but the new Raiders coaching staff prefers a veteran with experience, and Minshew is expected to be released. The most obvious fit is Wilson due to his history with head coach Pete Carroll in Seattle, but he's also 36 years old and fizzled out down the stretch in his first year in the Steel City.
From RotoBaller
Minnesota Vikings impending free-agent quarterback Sam Darnold was a name brought up to ESPN New York's Jordan Raanan on Friday as a potential option for the New York Giants. The G-Men were interested in Darnold last offseason before he signed a one-year contract with the Vikings, but he was too expensive for what they were looking for. Now, New York is looking for a starter after cutting Daniel Jones midway through the 2024 season. In addition to Darnold, Raanan also mentions veterans Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers as options the Giants will be looking at after Matthew Stafford restructured his deal with the Los Angeles Rams on Friday. Darnold, 27, fell apart in the final two games of the year for Minnesota, but he still had the best year of his career in 17 regular-season starts, throwing for 4,319 yards, 35 TDs and 12 interceptions. He'd be a pretty nice upgrade over what Jones was during his Giants tenure.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Texans and Commanders have been the two teams reportedly showing the most interest in Deebo Samuel. Dynasty Analysis: Samuel is destined to be traded this off-season and it seems Washington and Houston have the most interest at the moment. Other teams like Pittsburgh and New England have been mentioned, but this is all speculation at this point. Regardless, Samuel has a ways to go before he reclaims WR1 status in any way after a down year. His ultimate destination will go a long way in determining just where his dynasty value arrow will point.
Dynasty | The Giants may have some interest in Aaron Rodgers. Dynasty Analysis: Every team with a quarterback vacancy is going to likely kick the tires on Rodgers, who looks like a shell of himself at the moment. Still, it's possible a team is convinced he'll be better after a healthy season and convince themselves they could get one last season or two of greatness from him. Regardless, Rodgers is looking like a QB2 even if he does indeed get another contract with a team.
Dynasty | The Rams have agreed to a restructured contract with quarterback Matthew Stafford. Dynasty Analysis: Matthew Stafford will be the starter for the Rams next season as he agreed to a restructured contract. This was always the expected outcome but Stafford was able to at least dip his toes into the market to see if there was something better out there for him. This is the first domino to fall in the a quarterback carousel that should feature Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, and Sam Darnold all possibly find new homes. Los Angeles won't be one of those. As for Stafford, he'll remain a low-end QB1 for at least next season as his career really is a year-to-year thing at this point.
The Athletic's Tashan Reed and Vic Tafur feel that it's unlikely that the Las Vegas Raiders will make a large financial commitment to a veteran quarterback who is expected to be available this offseason, according to league sources. The Raiders reportedly offered a two-year deal worth up to $90-100 million guaranteed to Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, but he's now off the board after he and the Rams agreed to a restructured deal on Friday. With Stafford now unavailable, the Raiders could be in a tough spot, as league sources say the coaching staff prefers adding a proven veteran QB as opposed to taking a dice roll on an unproven rookie QB in what is considered a weak class. They have the sixth overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft, but the only options worth drafting in the first round could be gone by the time they are on the clock. Aidan O'Connell, Gardner Minshew III and Carter Bradley are the QBs on the current roster, but none of them have been viable starters, and Minshew is expected to be released.
From RotoBaller
There has been no contact or negotiations as of now between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks regarding wide receiver DK Metcalf, a source told The Athletic's Matt Schneidman. A report earlier on Friday suggested that the Packers had already offered an enticing package to the Seahawks to potentially acquired Metcalf this offseason. While the Seahawks aren't necessarily shopping Metcalf, it's clear that some teams are calling about his availability after back-to-back seasons of only 66 receptions for the two-time Pro Bowler. While the 27-year-old former second-rounder still had a healthy 992 receiving yards in 15 games in 2024, he also had a career-low five touchdowns and took a back seat to breakout wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Metcalf moving to Green Bay would certainly make him an intriguing bounce-back candidate, especially with Christian Watson (knee) expected to miss at least half the season.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants are investigating all veteran quarterback options this offseason, including New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, sources tell ESPN's Adam Schefter. The Giants reportedly offered Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford a two-year deal worth $90-100 million guaranteed, but Stafford and the Rams agreed to a restructured deal on Friday, so he's off the table for the G-Men. While the Giants, who could take a rookie signal-caller with the No. 3 overall pick in this year's NFL draft, could still sign a veteran QB like Rodgers or trade for one. Rodgers, who is expected to be designated as a post-June 1 cut by the New York Jets soon, has reportedly already reached out to the Giants. The 41-year-old future Hall of Famer will probably only play one more season in the NFL, and after tearing his Achilles in Week 1 in 2023, he was very inconsistent and looked his age in 2024 in a disappointing year with the Jets.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Rams and quarterback Matthew Stafford reached an agreement on Friday on a restructured deal that will keep him in L.A., sources tell ESPN's Adam Schefter. Financial terms of the restructure weren't immediately available, but this now squashes all trade rumors this offseason after the Rams gave permission to Stafford to talk with other teams about a new contract. Both the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants reportedly discussed two-year deals with the veteran signal-caller that included between $90-100 million guaranteed, but after meeting with the Rams on Friday, Stafford has decided to stay in Los Angeles. The 37-year-old was the QB19 in fantasy in 2024, throwing for 3,762 yards, 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 16 regular-season games. Although he won't be a QB1 in fantasy in 2025, he was playing his best ball late last season and nearly led the Rams to the NFC Championship.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. is expected to be traded this offseason, and the Washington Commanders and Houston Texans have had significant interest in trading for him, according to NFL insider Jordan Schultz. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos have also checked in, among other teams, but Washington and Houston are believed to be the most aggressive in trade talks. Samuel has spent his entire career with Niners since being selected in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft and has posted 334 receptions for 4,792 yards, and 22 touchdowns in 81 games. He has added 1,143 yards and 20 touchdowns as a runner. Both Washington and Houston have quarterbacks on rookie deals and see their Super Bowl window as wide open, making them formidable suitors for the veteran wideout.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is scheduled to meet with the Rams on Friday, feels more likely to return to L.A., according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Nothing is final, but it's looking like a reunion between Stafford and the Rams is more likely than a few days ago when it looked like he would leave. Both the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants have discussed a two-year deal for Stafford that includes $90-100 million guaranteed, according to The Athletic's Dianna Russini. A resolution is expected by the end of the NFL Combine this weekend. The Rams' preference is to stay year-to-year on a potential deal with Stafford -- they've typically averaged an annual salary of $40-45 million for him. It's a figure that ranks around the middle of the NFL this year, while Stafford has mostly produced like a top-10 QB in his time in L.A., including a Super Bowl victory.
From RotoBaller