Guest of the League
USFFL Est. 2015
FFL: Offseason | NFL: Week 18

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 18

Player Notes
Ricky Pearsall Jan 3 11:50pm ET
Ricky Pearsall

San Francisco 49ers rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (illness, chest) has been removed from the injury report and will try to duplicate his Week 17 breakout in a Week 18 matchup in Arizona against the Cardinals. The 2024 first-round selection was projected in most places as a WR6 or WR7 last week against Detroit but exploded with eight receptions of 10 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown. He added two carries for six yards and even threw one incomplete pass. Pearsall's potential ascendency could face a roadblock on Sunday, as he'll be catching his passes from backup Joshua Dobbs after Brock Purdy (right elbow) was ruled out. On the other hand, Deebo Samuel Sr. (rib, wrist) is also out, perhaps clearing the way for more targets. Consensus rankings have Pearsall just a few slots behind wideout Jauan Jennings given the three-straight zeroes that Pearsall produced following the last time he surged with 15.3 half-PPR points in Week 10. Arizona is the NFL's 10th-toughest matchup for fantasy wideouts. Consider Pearsall a boom/bust WR3 for the final game of his rookie campaign.

From RotoBaller

Jonathan Taylor Jan 3 11:50pm ET
Jonathan Taylor

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has been a force to be reckoned with over the last two weeks, rushing 61 times for 343 yards and five touchdowns. Not only that, he's seen 21 or more carries six of the last seven weeks and gets no competition for work. Anthony Richardson (back) had been stealing some goal line opportunities, but the QB has been ruled out, paving the way for Taylor to take on all he can handle with Joe Flacco under center. With the Colts eliminated from the playoffs, it's uncertain if they'll work in some other backs to close out the year, but if not, the matchup is extremely favorable, going up against the Jaguars who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. The former second-round draft pick projects as a mid-range RB1 for the final week of the season.

From RotoBaller

Mack Hollins Jan 3 11:50pm ET
Mack Hollins

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Mack Hollins could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Buffalo's secured second seed in the AFC postseason. Head coach Sean McDermott noted the starters and backups will both play on Sunday against the New England Patriots. While Hollins plays a significant amount of the offensive snaps, he's not as integral to the offense as other receivers like Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. Hollins could lead a group of practice squad players, and/or Curtis Samuel (ribs) if he's active, for backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky. The Bills (other than running back Ray Davis) are difficult to trust given uncertain playing time and opportunities in the regular season finale.

From RotoBaller

Ray Davis Jan 3 11:40pm ET
Ray Davis

Remember the 23-touch coming-out party for Ray Davis in Week 6? A similar opportunity could await the rookie in Week 18. The Bills can't move out of the second seed in the AFC, meaning starters won't play their full allotment of snaps. Head coach Sean McDermott confirmed earlier in the week that both starters and reserves will play. Davis should be in line for at least 12 touches against a bottom-10 run defense in the New England Patriots. Third-down back Ty Johnson should also be heavily involved in the gameplan. Davis can be counted on as an RB2 for fantasy football lineups.

From RotoBaller

Khalil Shakir Jan 3 11:40pm ET
Khalil Shakir

What do you get when a team has clinched their playoff seeding entering the final week of the regular season? A blend of starters and backups playing on the football field. Head coach Sean McDermott promised that earlier in the week. That could mean an early exit for Buffalo's most utilized wide receiver, Khalil Shakir. The slot receiver has caught 76 passes for 821 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games. He, alongside Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper (back), can't be depended upon against the Patriots due to uncertain playing time and Mitchell Trubisky playing most of the quarterback snaps.

From RotoBaller

Kyler Murray Jan 3 11:40pm ET
Kyler Murray

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is a low-end starting quarterback in Week 18 when the Cardinals host the San Francisco 49ers. Murray and the Cardinals will look to end their season on a high note after watching their playoff hopes dwindle post-bye week. Murray had a solid performance last week, topping 300 yards despite throwing two interceptions. A strong showing in this matchup will help build momentum for the Cardinals heading into next season. With nothing to play for in terms of playoff implications, we can expect the Cardinals to play more freely and open up the playbook to put an exclamation point on their season. Murray should still be viewed as a starter in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Mitchell Trubisky Jan 3 11:30pm ET
Mitchell Trubisky

The Buffalo Bills have secured the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoffs, meaning Week 18 will be treated like a preseason game. Head coach Sean McDermott noted earlier in the week that the team plans on using starters and reserves on Sunday against New England. Quarterback Josh Allen will get the start to extend his consecutive starts streak, which dates back to 2018. Fantasy managers should only expect to see Allen for a series before Mitchell Trubisky takes over. The 2017 second overall pick has played 54 snaps across eight blowout games this season. Fantasy managers still playing in Week 18 should look elsewhere for a starting quarterback. Trubisky ranks as a low-end QB2.

From RotoBaller

Mike White Jan 3 11:30pm ET
Mike White

The New England Patriots defense/special teams has not been a reliable fantasy option this season, and they remain off the fantasy radar in most leagues ahead of Week 18 against the Buffalo Bills. While the Bills are expected to play their reserves, including quarterbacks Mitchell Trubisky and Mike White, we can't trust the Patriots D/ST amidst one of their worst seasons in recent memory. New England ranks 29th among defensive units in fantasy points this year, so even if they do play most of their snaps against Buffalo's backups, they're not guaranteed to pad their stats. Plus, there remains a significant possibility that the Patriots play a portion of their backups, too, as they hope to gain film on some of their reserves and potentially remain in position for the draft's No. 1 pick. All in all, there are too many uncertain factors at play, leaving New England as an unfavorable fantasy option for Week 18.

From RotoBaller

James Cook Jan 3 11:30pm ET
James Cook

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook averages a shade over 15 touches per game this season but that number could plummet in Week 18. The Bills have clinched the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoffs. Head coach Sean McDermott said the team plans on using starters and reserves on Sunday against New England. That means more opportunities for backup running backs Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. Cook can't be trusted in any fantasy football or DFS lineups without the proper volume. His day could be finished after a handful of snaps.

From RotoBaller

Joey Slye Jan 3 11:30pm ET
Joey Slye

New England Patriots kicker Joey Slye remains off the fantasy radar heading into Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Buffalo Bills. Slye has demonstrated impressive power as the Patriots' kicker this season, but his accuracy issues have been well-documented. Furthermore, as the Patriots' offense continues to struggle, scoring opportunities have been hard to come by for the 28-year-old. He has not attempted a single field goal over the last two weeks, adding just four successful extra points during that span. Although the Patriots have a more promising outlook in Week 18 with the Bills expected to deploy many of their reserve players, New England still isn't a dependable offense, which means Slye, who ranks 24th among kickers in fantasy points this year, remains unreliable. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere for productive kicking options in the final week of the regular season.

From RotoBaller

Demario Douglas Jan 3 11:20pm ET
Demario Douglas

New England Patriots wide receiver DeMario Douglas continues to trend upward ahead of Sunday's Week 18 matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Douglas had consistently been playing fewer than two-thirds of the Patriots' offensive snaps, but his snap share jumped to a season-high 92 percent in Week 17, and he could have a similar role against the Bills during the Patriots' regular-season finale. Douglas has been somewhat productive lately, too, catching 11 passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns over his last three games. The 24-year-old has suddenly found the end zone at a greater frequency than ever, and he remains one of the leading targets in New England's Drake Maye-led offense. Fantasy managers should expect him to rank as a low-end WR3 or high-end WR4 in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Marvin Mims Jan 3 11:20pm ET
Marvin Mims

Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. is coming off by far the best game of his career in the Week 17 overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in which he caught all eight of his targets for 103 yards and two touchdowns, including a miraculous jump-ball TD in the back of the end zone to send it to overtime. Mims will try to have another big game in Week 18 versus the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday to send the team to the playoffs. It will help his cause that the Chiefs defense will be resting several key players for the postseason, but the 22-year-old second-year wideout has been reliant on big plays down the field for most of his inconsistent production. Still, there's no denying Mims has been trending up of late, playing a season-high 47% of the snaps the last two games while scoring three times in the last five games. Mims is the WR20 in average half-PPR points the last five weeks (four games).

From RotoBaller

Kayshon Boutte Jan 3 11:20pm ET
Kayshon Boutte

New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (illness) has been removed from the injury report and will play in Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Buffalo Bills. Boutte has seen the field more than any Patriots receiver since Drake Maye was installed as the team's starting quarterback, but it's worth noting that last week's 77 percent snap share was his lowest mark since Week 5. Despite his reduced involvement, he should remain a central part of the Patriots' offensive game plan on Sunday afternoon. Boutte has caught nine of 12 targets for 123 yards and one touchdown over his last two games, and he's trending upward ahead of this week's matchup against a Bills defense that could rest some of its starters. The 22-year-old is a flashy deep threat, and he could use his speed to beat Buffalo defenders, especially those in depth roles. He remains a low-floor, high-ceiling option, ranking as a solid WR4 option in fantasy football.

From RotoBaller

Courtland Sutton Jan 3 11:10pm ET
Courtland Sutton

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton should have a high ceiling and high floor in fantasy football in the Week 18 regular-season finale as the Broncos host the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs. Not only are the Broncos playing for a win to get into the playoffs, but the Chiefs are already locked into the AFC's top seed and will be resting key players on defense, including cornerback Trent McDuffie (knee). The 29-year-old Sutton has come on strong in the second half of the season as rookie QB Bo Nix's favorite target, and he had six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting against the Chiefs in KC in Week 10. Sutton has scored seven touchdowns on the year and is 17 yards shy of his second 1,000-yard campaign. He's the WR18 on the year in half-PPR scoring and ranks 13th among all wideouts with his 128 targets. Start Sutton with confidence in Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Rhamondre Stevenson Jan 3 11:10pm ET
Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains an unreliable fantasy option heading into Sunday's Week 18 contest against the Buffalo Bills. Stevenson was effectively benched last Saturday against the Los Angeles Chargers. While he did log the first touch of the game, he finished the contest with just two carries for one yard while Antonio Gibson rushed the ball 12 times. Gibson has led the Patriots' backfield in snaps for two consecutive weeks, which is the product of Stevenson's poor ball security this season, including a costly Week 16 fumble against the Bills. The Patriots have been somewhat quiet about their personnel decision for Sunday's regular-season finale, but we would expect Stevenson to remain in the doghouse. He's not a dependable fantasy option as the Patriots' season wraps up.

From RotoBaller

Antonio Gibson Jan 3 11:10pm ET
Antonio Gibson

New England Patriots running back Antonio Gibson is trending toward leading the backfield in snaps for the third consecutive week when he faces the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon. Gibson rushed 12 times for 63 yards last Saturday against the Los Angeles Chargers, taking advantage of fellow running back Rhamondre Stevenson being in the doghouse amidst consistent ball security concerns. The Patriots haven't commented on their backfield alignment for Week 18, but we'd expect Gibson to remain the primary option once more against the Bills. The 26-year-old has upside in a game where the Bills could rest many of their defensive starters. Gibson struggled against the Chargers' starters last week, but he rushed for 53 yards on six carries (8.8 YPC) once Los Angeles started to play some of its depth defenders. We could see him have similar success once Buffalo turns to some of its non-starters in Week 18. Gibson is a solid RB3 for fantasy football.

From RotoBaller

Jauan Jennings Jan 3 11:00pm ET
Jauan Jennings

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings will finish his 2024 breakout campaign in Arizona for a Week 18 clash with the division-rival Cardinals. The man they call "Third-and-Jauan" has done plenty of damage on other downs this season, coming into the game as the overall half-PPR WR28 in points per game after spending his first four years as a fantasy non-factor. In last week's home loss to Detroit, Jennings caught seven of 10 targets for 67 yards -- roughly half of which came on the last drive of the game after being overshadowed for nearly four quarters by rookie Ricky Pearsall. Both players will be catching passes from backup Joshua Dobbs since starting quarterback Brock Purdy (right elbow) has been ruled out. It's tough to predict which receiver Dobbs will look to more often, but the savvy veteran Jennings should have the edge. It's worth noting that receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. (rib, wrist) has been ruled out. Jennings is a mid-low WR2 for Week 18.

From RotoBaller

Eddy Pineiro Jan 3 10:50pm ET
Eddy Pineiro

Carolina Panthers kicker Eddy Pineiro hasn't gotten many opportunities to kick field goals the past few weeks. Over the past four games, he has only attempted three field goals. The silver lining for Pineiro is that between Weeks 10 and 13, he made nine of his 11 field goal attempts. In Week 18, the Panthers take on their division rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing kickers, giving some hope for Pineiro in this contest. However, the lack of consistent attempts makes it difficult for fantasy managers to trust Pineiro in this one. The 29-year-old comes in as K27 in the latest RotoBaller kicker rankings for Week 18. There are likely better options at the kicker position for fantasy managers.

From RotoBaller

Jaleel McLaughlin Jan 3 10:50pm ET
Jaleel McLaughlin

Denver Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin will be on the RB2/3 borderline for the team's Week 18 regular-season finale against the visiting division-rival Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. After missing the Week 16 loss to the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers with a quadriceps injury, McLaughlin returned in last week's overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals to narrowly lead what has become a three-man committee in Denver with 12 touches for 76 scrimmage yards. He did have an impressive 6.9 yards per carry on 10 rushing attempts, although it was his second straight game seeing fewer than 30% of the offensive snaps. The Chiefs defense has allowed the fewest half-PPR points per game to RBs this year, but they will also be resting key starters for the playoffs. The Broncos need to win to get in. In a three-man committee, McLaughlin will likely need to score to pay off as an RB2.

From RotoBaller

Bijan Robinson Jan 3 10:50pm ET
Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is expected to get a full workload on Sunday as his team still has designs on making the playoffs. If the Falcons win and the Saints beat the Buccaneers, Atlanta is in. Robinson is having a fantastic season, now top 5 in fantasy scoring for RBs with over 1700 all-purpose yards and 13 total TDs. Not to mention, the last time these two teams met, the 22-year-old stampeded his way to 95 yards and two scores on 15 carries (6.3 YPR), adding three catches for 10 yards as well. The Panthers have been run on all season, allowing the most fantasy points to running backs in all of football. With the playoffs in sight, look for Robinson to rumble his way to top-tier RB1 status on Sunday.

From RotoBaller