Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 11
On Sunday, Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen had another quiet performance in the team's Week 11 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Allen finished with just four receptions for 41 yards, a far cry from the dynamic playmaker he was last season. Despite being targeted 8 times by quarterback Caleb Williams, Allen could not make a significant impact. That said, it was encouraging to see him come up clutch on a few vital third-down plays, proving he's still effective at getting open in critical situations. The recent coaching change, with Thomas Brown taking over as offensive coordinator, seems to have sparked some life in the Bears' offense, even if Allen's production didn't reflect that shift. The Bears won't have much time to regroup as they host the tough Minnesotabrutalngs at Soldier Field next Sunday. A challenging matchup against Brian Flores' defense awaits.
From RotoBaller
In Week 11, Chicago Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze led the team in receiving yards and targets during the 20-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Odunze finished with six receptions for 65 yards but was kept out of the end zone like many of his teammates. Despite the loss, it was encouraging to see Odunze take on a more prominent role in the Bears' offense under the new coaching direction. With Thomas Brown replacing Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator, Odunze emerged as a go-to target for rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, mainly when the Bears needed a big play. He came up clutch on a crucial 4th down late in the game, keeping the Bears' drive alive and showing his growing rapport with Williams. The Bears won't have much time to regroup as they host the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field next Sunday. A tough matchup against Brian Flores' defense looms on the horizon.
From RotoBaller
In Week 11, Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet had a quiet outing in the team's narrow 20-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Kmet finished with just three receptions for 42 yards, a far cry from the fantasy production many had hoped for. However, it was encouraging to see him more involved in the offense compared to recent weeks, a sign that the Bears may be trying to get him more involved moving forward. The coaching change, with Thomas Brown replacing Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator, seemed to spark some life in the Bears' offense, though Kmet's numbers didn't fully reflect the shift. While he's not a consistent fantasy option, he could still be worth stashing on your bench, especially with bye weeks on the horizon. The Bears won't have much time to regroup as they welcome the tough Minnesota Vikings to Soldier Field next Sunday. Brian Flores' defense presents another challenging matchup for Kmet and the Bears.
From RotoBaller
This Sunday, Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams faced a tough test against the Green Bay Packers in Week 11. While Williams showed flashes of his potential, it was still a mixed performance. He completed 23 of 31 passes for 231 yards but, once again, failed to find the end zone, extending his streak without a passing touchdown. On a positive note, Williams added 70 rushing yardshis highest total of the seasonshowing off his mobility and ability to make plays with his legs. The recent change at offensive coordinator, with Thomas Brown replacing Shane Waldron, seemed to spark a slight resurgence in the Bears' offense. However, despite Williams' improvements, his inability to score touchdowns keeps him relegated to QB2 in fantasy leagues. The Bears won't have much time to regroup as they welcome the tough Minnesota Vikings to Soldier Field next Sunday. Minnesota's defense, led by Brian Flores, will present another significant challenge for the young quarterback.
From RotoBaller
On Sunday, Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift turned in another strong performance in the team's Week 11 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Swift made the most of his 14 carries, rushing for 71 yardsan impressive 5.1 yards per carryand capped off his day with a spectacular 39-yard touchdown run. He also contributed in the passing game, adding two catches for 13 yards. The recent change at offensive coordinator, with Thomas Brown replacing Shane Waldron, seemed to spark a slight resurgence in the Bears' offense, and Swift benefited from the new approach. Despite the tough loss, Swift's performance further solidifies his role as a key piece of the offense moving forward. That said, one of the league's toughest remaining schedules for running backs may test his fantasy value. Still, it will be hard to sit Swift, given how well he's been playing. The Bears won't have much time to regroup as they welcome the tough Minnesota Vikings to Soldier Field next Sunday, where they'll face a challenging defense led by Brian Flores.
From RotoBaller
On Sunday, Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson made his mark in the team's Week 11 loss to the Green Bay Packers. While his role in the offense was limited, Johnson made the most of his opportunities, rushing 10 times for 33 yards and a touchdown. Once again, he served as the short-yardage back, converting a goal-line touch into a score. Johnson also caught one pass for 8 yards. The coaching change, with Thomas Brown replacing Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator, seemed to slightly improve the Bears' offense, and Johnson's role remains steady. While he faces a tough upcoming schedule, his position in the Bears' backfield appears secure. The Bears won't have much time to regroup as they host the tough Minnesotabrutalngs next Sunday at Soldier Field. Minnesota's defense, led by Brian Flores, will provide another significant challenge.
From RotoBaller
In Week 11, Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore showed signs of improvement in the team's 20-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers. While he finished with seven receptions for seven 62 yards, Moore was again kept out of the end zone. He also had minimal impact in the rushing game, with just one carry for 5 yards. Despite the lack of a touchdown, it was encouraging to see Moore utilized more creatively within the offense. The recent change at offensive coordinator, with Thomas Brown replacing Shane Waldron, seems to have sparked a bit of life in the Bears' attack. While Moore's production didn't reach its full potential this week, his expanded role could signal more fantasy value soon. Looking ahead, the Bears won't have much time to regroup as they welcome the tough Minnesota Vikings to Soldier Field next Sunday. A challenging matchup against Brian Flores' defense awaits.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy had four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs loss against Buffalo. Dynasty Analysis: It sure looked like the Chiefs made a real effort to get the rookie involved as one drive featured him nearly being force-fed the football. This was one of the better days for Worthy, but this was far from a dominant performance as Kansas City seemed content to spread the ball around quite a bit. Worthy will be a risky play moving forward, but this was good to see from a dynasty perspective.
Dynasty | Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce had just two catches for eight yards in a loss against the Bills. Dynasty Analysis: Yikes. Kelce had been white-hot over the past few weeks, but today was a massive letdown as the Bills made sure other players were going to beat them. After catching 32 passes over the past three weeks, Kelce came crashing down in this one. He'll still be a TE1 moving into next week, but this game reminded us there still is some volatility in his game. His dynasty value is likely about as stable as it gets for a veteran player.
Dynasty | Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had ten catches for 110 yards in Seattle's win against San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: It really looks as if JSN has passed Tyler Lockett as Seattle's WR2 behind DK Metcalf. In fact, he has a whopping 24 targets over the past two weeks and that's big-time news for a player who was badly needing a breakout season. While he hasn't been the dominant force many hoped he'd be thus far in his career, things are clearly looking much better for him this season. At this point, it's safe to say any "buy low" window has closed.
Dynasty | 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings had ten catches for 91 yards and a touchdown in a loss against Seattle. Dynasty Analysis: One of the streakiest receivers in the league this year, Jennings again showed he can blow up on any given Sunday. On the plus side, this was the second straight game where had 11 targets, so that's nothing to ignore. Jennings will be a risky play moving forward but he's proving to everyone this year that he has real talent and belongs squarely on dynasty rosters moving forward.
Dynasty | Broncos quarterback Bo Nix completed 28-of-33 passes for 307 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a blowout win over Atlanta. Dynasty Analysis: Wow. While much of the talk this year has revolved around Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, Nix is doing his best to hang with the best of the bunch and today was an absolute masterpiece,. It certainly looks like Sean Payton has found his quarterback and Nix himself is starting to look like a QB1 instead of a QB2 in the process. His dynasty value is clearly on the rise.
A week after he exploded with a 3-109-2 line, Marquez Valdes-Scantling took another catch to the house in the Saints' 35-14 win over the Browns. Similar to his Week 10 performance, MVS was seldom targeted but made the most of his opportunities. On four targets he caught two balls for 87 yards and a touchdown, the score being a 71-yard catch and run in the second quarter. With few other options for quarterback Derek Carr to throw to, Valdes-Scantling seems to have cemented his role as the team's go-to playmaker at wide receiver. Rashid Shaheed (knee) is out for the year so even if Chris Olave (concussion) is activated before the end of the season, MVS may still be featured as the deep threat for New Orleans. After their Week 12 bye, the Saints will face the Rams followed by the Giants who rank 29th and dead last, respectively, in completion rate allowed on deep throws.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson caught all three of his targets for 30 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-14 victory over the Browns. The score came from one yard out and was Johnson's first trip to the end zone since Week 1 and was just the second touchdown against the Browns by an opposing tight end this season. Johnson also impressed with an acrobatic catch for a 20-yard gain in the second quarter, turning and jumping for the pass and reeling it in while twisting around mid-air. On the downside, he was responsible for a holding penalty in the first quarter that negated a 29-yard pickup on a 4th-and-1 that would have brought the Saints to Cleveland's four-yard line. Despite the injuries that have wrecked the Saints' wide receiver room, Johnson has not seen a significant uptick in production. Through 11 games, he now has 25 receptions for 277 yards with two touchdowns on 32 targets. The Saints are on bye in Week 12, then return to face the Rams where Johnson will once again be a touchdown-dependent dart throw.
From RotoBaller
The Taysom Hill boom game we were all waiting for finally happened in Week 11. Hill had A career-high 138 rushing yards with three touchdowns on seven carries and led the Saints in receptions and targets, bringing in eight of his ten looks for 50 yards. He fulfilled the rest of his utility role with an 18-yard completion and a 42-yard kickoff return. His work in New Orleans' 35-14 win over the Browns equated to a whopping 42.52 PPR points. Hill threw an interception on his only other pass attempt in the game and lost a fumble but the turnovers did not deter the Saints from turning away from their jack of all trades. Since his Week 8 return from a multi-week absence due to injury, Hill is averaging 8.3 touches per game and has four touchdowns thanks to his performance against Cleveland. New Orleans is on bye in Week 12 but Hill will continue to be a factor thereafter.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr completed 21 of his 27 pass attempts for 248 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 35-14 win over the Cleveland Browns. Carr's first touchdown pass was a 71-yard job to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who covered most of the ground after the catch as opposed to last week's deep shot through the air. Carr's other score went to Juwan Johnson from a yard out, giving the tight end his first trip to the end zone since Week 1. Carr looked great in the first half, with just two incompletions and a streak of 13 consecutive completed passes that stretched into the start of the third quarter. The performance marked just the second time this season that he eclipsed 20 completions in a game and he now has multiple touchdown passes in five of the eight games he has played. Carr's productivity since returning from his oblique injury is surprising, considering the losses the Saints have sustained to their receiving corps. He will be hard to trust as a QB1 but will be a candidate in formats that utilize two quarterbacks after New Orleans returns from their Week 12 bye.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara handled 16 carries for 67 yards and caught all four of his targets for 22 receiving yards in Sunday's 35-14 win over the Browns. Kamara found enough space to take his first handoff 13 yards and had an 18-yard gain on the ground in the fourth quarter but was stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage seven times. It was the first time since Week 7 that he finished short of 100 scrimmage yards and it was his fifth straight week without a touchdown. The four targets were the fewest that Kamara has seen in a game since Week 3. His use in Week 11 was a surprising step back from the norm, considering how thin the Saints are on offense thanks to their recent spate of injuries. Kamara should return to being the focal point of New Orleans' attack after their Week 12 bye and has a favorable schedule for the fantasy playoffs including a matchup against the Raiders in the championship round.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer made two catches in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Palmer was targeted four times, making the two grabs for a total of 23 yards. Palmer has made two or fewer catches for four games in a row and has scored just one touchdown so far. He's playing a fairly important role in the "real life" Chargers offense, but it hasn't translated into any kind of consistent fantasy value and that's unlikely to change. Palmer and the Chargers will play on Monday Night Football in Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers was targeted 16 times in Week 11 against the Miami Dolphins, catching 13 of those passes for 126 yards and a touchdown. He was once again the lone bright spot in the team's loss, as no other offensive or defensive player on his team shined as bright as he did. It's becoming a common theme in his inaugural season, and it seems set to continue. As long as quarterback Gardner Minshew II starts, at least. But he's an elite player at his position already, and it seems that any QB that plays for this team would be well served in spamming the ball in his direction. He's an elite TE option in fantasy and should be started every week from now on, even in Week 11 against a tough Denver Broncos defense.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker had an excellent game in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Dicker attempted two field goals and made them both and also added four extra points on his four tries. Dicker's first field goal came from 19 yards out at the end of the first half, and his second was a 53-yarder in the third quarter. He's remained consistent at one of fantasy football's least reliable positions, and should once again be a top-10 option next week against the Baltimore Ravens.
From RotoBaller