Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
RTSports Super Bowl Preview
According to the team, Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Bryce Huff (coach's decision) is inactive for the Super Bowl. Huff logged only 12 defensive snaps during their Conference Championship victory over the Washington Commanders. However, the Eagles will welcome back linebacker Brandon Graham (elbow) to the starting lineup, who has been on the injured reserve since Week 12. Across 14 games this season, Huff tallied 13 tackles (five solo) with eight assists and 2.5 sacks. Fantasy managers should expect Josh Sweat and Graham to operate as the team's top outside linebackers in this contest.
From RotoBaller
According to the team, Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Skyy Moore (abdomen) will not suit up for the Super Bowl. Moore was able to practice during the week in a limited capacity but carried a doubtful tag on the final injury report. The third-year wideout was unable to turn the corner in time. During the regular season, Moore played in just six games and did not catch a pass. He saw just three total targets and only logged more than 15 offensive snaps in one game. As a result, fantasy managers should expect rookie Xavier Worthy and tight end Travis Kelce to lead the Kansas City Passing attack. DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster will also see targets in this game. Worthy led the way in their Conference Championship victory over the Buffalo Bills as he tallied over 100 yards with a touchdown and should be viewed as the top option in the wide receiver room.
From RotoBaller
According to the team, Philadelphia Eagles tight end C.J. Uzomah (abdomen) will not play during the Super Bowl. Uzomah joined Philadelphia's practice squad in December. Across seven contests, he ran just 14 routes and did not see a target. He sustained this injury during their victory over the Dallas Cowboys during Week 17. The 32-year-old was able to log two full practice sessions this week but was unable to turn the corner. As a result, fantasy managers should expect Dallas Goedert to operate as the clear TE1, with Grant Calcaterra serving as the backup.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The 49ers have granted wide receiver Deebo Samuel permission to seek a trade. Dynasty Analysis: It was always unlikely the pairing of Brandon Aiyuk and Samuel was going to work for San Francisco financially in the long-term, so this isn't a huge shock. Samuel should have a strong market out there despite a down season that featured him playing at less than full strength most of the way. His landing spot will be critical in determining his dynasty value, but he remains a solid WR2 at the moment.
Dynasty | The Jets have reportedly informed Aaron Rodgers he's no longer part of their future plans. Dynasty Analysis: This was always the likely case after Rodgers failed to elevate the team. He'll apparently be joined on the market with Davante Adams, who was good for New York down the stretch but also doesn't fit their rebuilding timeline. The Jets swung and missed big with Rodgers, who famously tore his Achilles in his first game last season, then went on to look like a shell of his former self most of this season. Retirement seems likely for Rodgers, but he could be a bridge option out there for someone should he choose to continue playing.
According to the team, Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Brandon Graham (elbow) is officially active for the Super Bowl. Graham has been on the injured reserve since suffering a torn triceps following their Week 12 contest against the Los Angeles Rams. Graham was able to log two limited practice sessions to end the week and was eventually activated off injured reserve on Saturday. Before his injury, Graham tallied 20 tackles, five assists, and 3.5 sacks across 11 games. Graham will look to play a critical role for the Philadelphia defense on Sunday afternoon, as he did during their victory in Super Bowl LII, where he forced a fumble on Tom Brady in the final minutes to seal the win for the Eagles. Graham should be deployed as a starter as an outside linebacker.
From RotoBaller
According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, the New York Jets could move on from wide receiver Davante Adams. Rapoport noted that with the Jets and Aaron Rodgers expected to part ways, the team is unlikely to keep his longtime receiver on the roster as well. The Jets traded for Adams prior to their Week 8 tilt against the Pittsburgh Steelers. During his time with the Jets, Adams averaged a strong 77.6 yards per game with seven touchdowns. He saw 10.4 targets per game and brought in 6.1 passes per game. Despite the Jets falling short of expectations, Adams posted his fifth-straight 1,000-yard campaign. Even though Adams will be entering his age-32 campaign, he should still be viewed as a solid WR2 heading into the 2025 campaign, even if he is playing for a new team.
From RotoBaller
According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, the New Orleans Saints will decide on the future of their quarterback, Derek Carr, in the next few weeks. With the Saints over the salary cap, they may opt to part ways with Carr to shed salary. Mike Garafolo of the NFL Network noted that he expects Carr to have several suitors if he were to enter the open market. The 33-year-old was only able to play in 10 games this season due to an oblique and hand injury. Across this stint, Carr averaged 214.5 passing yards per game with a 15:5 TD:INT ratio. While Carr was sidelined, rookie Spencer Rattler saw most of the starting opportunities. If the team were to part ways with Carr, Rattler would likely be given an opportunity to compete for the starting job during training camp. Rattler tallied 1,317 yards during his rookie season with a 4:5 TD:INT ratio. In addition, the Saints may also target a quarterback with the ninth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
From RotoBaller
According to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, the Seattle Seahawks are expected to bring back quarterback Geno Smith for the 2025 season. The team reportedly "believes in him." The 34-year-old will be entering the final year of his three-year contract. Last season, Smith threw for a career-high 4,320 yards with 21 passing scores and 15 interceptions. He averaged 254.1 passing yards per game and added two scores with his legs. This was a strong increase compared to the 3,624 passing yards and the 20:9 TD:INT ratio he posted across 15 games during the 2023 campaign. Despite just missing the playoffs, the team and the coaching staff still view Smith as the best option to lead their franchise. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor his status in the offseason. If he returns to Seattle, he should be viewed as a solid QB2 in Superflex formats.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Bills quarterback Josh Allen was named the NFL's most valuable player. Dynasty Analysis: Allen edged out Lamar Jackson in one of the closest votes ever. He was again fantastic despite a depleted supporting cast this year, accounting for a whopping 40 total touchdowns. Allen simply proved he was capable of elevating any offense to elite levels and remains one of the very best players to build around in dynasty leagues.
Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II was named the 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year on Thursday night. Surtain tallied 26 first-place votes and became just the second defensive back to win the award since 2010, joining Stephon Gilmore, who won the award as a member of the New England Patriots in 2019. The 24-year-old came just one vote shy of being a unanimous selection for first-team All-Pro honors and recording four interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), 11 pass breakups, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in 16 regular-season starts. According to Next Gen Stats, Surtain was targeted on only 10.9% of his coverage snaps in 2024, the lowest rate among 83 cornerbacks with 300-plus coverage snaps. He allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap, giving up only 306 receiving yards as the nearest defender. Surtain is the first Bronco to win the award since linebacker Randy Gradishar in 1978.
The Athletic's Dianna Russini writes that the San Francisco 49ers will get a long-term contract extension done with quarterback Brock Purdy. The Niners won't drag their feet on this one -- they want a deal done soon and have already started conversations with Purdy's representatives. Even after a disappointing 2024 season, the team has not wavered on Purdy being their franchise signal-caller. "Everybody out there, if you have any questions about Brock Purdy, I'm here to tell you I'm not biased, I know ball he's the guy," linebacker Fred Warner said. The 25-year-old Purdy suffered a right-elbow injury at the tail end of the regular season but should be just fine this offseason and for Week 1 in 2025. He took a step back after his 2023 breakout, but injuries to key offensive weapons didn't help. Purdy should be a rebound candidate and should be considered a low-end QB1 in fantasy, at worst, in 2025.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports that the Carolina Panthers want veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen back for the 2025 campaign. Thielen hinted that he would contemplate retirement this offseason, but he recently said that he has decided to come back for another season. The 34-year-old veteran is due for more than $6 million in overall payout in the final year of his deal, but the two sides could renegotiate on a new one-year contract or extension. Fowler gets the sense that the Panthers don't plan to release Thielen. The two-time Pro Bowler played in just 10 games in 2024 due to a hamstring injury and finished with a 48-615-5 line on 62 targets. Thielen did have over 1,000 receiving yards in his first year in Carolina in 2023 and has plenty of chemistry with rising young quarterback Bryce Young. The upside is limited, but fantasy managers shouldn't discount his rapport with Young if he stays with the Panthers.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports that the Arizona Cardinals hope to re-sign impending free-agent tight end Trey McBride this offseason. The tight end market has been in the $15-17 million per-year range for some time now, but McBride could change that this offseason after recording 192 catches the last two seasons. Although he inexplicably scored just two touchdowns during the 2024 season, McBride led the Cardinals across the board as a receiver and also set new career-highs in receptions (111), targets (147) and receiving yards (1,146) in 16 games played. His 1,146 receiving yards were second at the position, behind only rookie Brock Bowers. McBride was the TE3 in half-PPR scoring, behind Bowers and George Kittle. He will be highly coveted on the open market, but it sounds like Arizona will do everything in their power to retain him. McBride has upside for more in 2025 if he can find the end zone more.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that there is a possibility that impending free-agent quarterback Russell Wilson re-signs with the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason. The Steelers are also open to the idea of re-signing Justin Fields, but most likely the team will only bring back one of the signal-callers. Reports this offseason suggest the Steelers would be comfortable using Fields as their starter in 2025 because he's younger and has more mobility. However, head coach Mike Tomlin has been loyal to Wilson, and the Steelers could be priced out of Fields' free-agent market, which could be robust. In addition to Pittsburgh, the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants have been mentioned as potential landing spots for Russ, but if he has it his way, staying with the Steelers would probably be his first choice. The 36-year-old initially gave Pittsburgh's offense a spark but finished the year with five straight losses.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Dan Graziano writes that the Houston Texans might look to fill in around No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins this offseason with more targeted, role-oriented acquisitions. Graziano mentions Buffalo Bills impending unrestricted free-agent wideout Mack Hollins specifically as a potential target for Houston. Many teams like what the Bills did at receiver in 2024 by adding role-player types like Hollins that are more than willing to do the dirty work. Houston's acquisition of Stefon Diggs last offseason didn't work out after he suffered a season-ending torn right ACL. In addition to Diggs' injury, Tank Dell also suffered a season-ending knee injury that could keep him out for all of 2025, so the Texans will need to retool their wideout room this offseason. Hollins had only 378 receiving yards on 31 receptions for Buffalo, but he did add a career-high five touchdowns in 17 regular-season games.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler writes that the Kansas City Chiefs want to keep impending free-agent wide receiver Marquise Brown in the fold going into the 2025 season. Hollywood should have a good market this offseason due to teams wanting speed options on the outside, even though he missed almost all of the 2024 season due to a shoulder injury suffered in the preseason. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was a proponent of the team adding Brown last year and will likely do so again. However, the Chiefs could have competition from the Buffalo Bills, as sources say that quarterback Josh Allen has long wanted to play with Hollywood. Brown had nine catches on 15 targets for 91 yards in two regular-season games and has caught three of seven targets for 35 yards in two playoff games for KC. If he re-signs with the Chiefs, the combination of Brown and Rashee Rice would be busy with Mahomes.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the San Francisco 49ers have granted wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. and his agent, Tory Dandy, permission to seek a trade. It comes after Samuel asked the 49ers to trade him during the players' exit meetings after the regular season. "It was a hard conversation to have with Kyle (Shanahan) because of the relationship that we have," Samuel said. "But I have to do what's best. I'm more than thankful for the Niners giving me the opportunity of a lifetime, but now I think it's best that we find another team." NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported earlier that the 49ers were expected to explore trading Samuel this offseason. Despite Brandon Aiyuk (knee) missing most of 2024, Samuel had only 51 catches -- the second-lowest total of his career -- for 670 yards and three TDs in 15 games. He's due $17.55 million in 2025 in the final year of the three-year, $71.55 million extension he signed in 2022.
From RotoBaller
The New York Jets will continue to have further discussions, but sources tell FOX Sports' Jordan Schultz that the overwhelming belief is that the team is unlikely to move forward with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback in 2025. Most folks are expecting the Jets' new regime, led by first-time head coach Aaron Glenn, to go for a fresh start. A resolution is expected sooner than later. After tearing his Achilles on the first offensive series of the year in 2023, the 41-year-old Rodgers returned in 2024 and was unable to capture his previous Pro Bowl form. Although the future Hall of Famer did throw four touchdowns in the regular-season finale to reach 500 for his career, he ultimately was a disappointment, completing only 63% of his passes for 3,879 yards, 28 TDs and 11 interceptions. Rodgers has said he'd like to play again in 2025, but it looks like it won't be in New York.
From RotoBaller
The New York Jets have been in ongoing discussions with QB Aaron Rodgers regarding his future and a decision on whether he will return to the team next season could come as soon as this upcoming week, according to multiple sources.
Fantasy Spin: New head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey appear to have a great deal of respect for Rodgers but he would probably need to take a pay cut from his scheduled 2025 base salary of $37.5 million to remain with the Jets. He would also likely need to dedicate significant time to the team's offseason program, especially with a new offensive coordinator. Assuming that the 41-year-old Rodgers decides to continue playing next season, he should be viewed as a QB2 option in fantasy leagues regardless of where he winds up.
From TheHuddle