RB Strength of Schedule
Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
| RB SOS | ||
| 1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
| 2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
| 4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
| 5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
| 6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
| 7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
| 8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
| 9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
| 10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
| 12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
| 13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
| 14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
| 15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
| 16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
| 17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
| 18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
| 19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
| 20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
| 21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
| 22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
| 23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
| 24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
| 25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
| 27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
| 28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
| 29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
| 30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
| 31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
| 32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
| RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
| 1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
| 2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
| 3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
| 5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
| 6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
| 7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
| 8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
| 9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
| 10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
| 11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
| 12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
| 13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
| 14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
| 15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
| 18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
| 19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
| 20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
| 21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
| 22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
| 23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
| 24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
| 25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
| 26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
| 27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
| 28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
| 29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
| 30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
| 31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
| 32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (holdout) told the media on Friday that he considers himself a game-time decision for Sunday and will be "limited" if he does play, according to Charlie Goldsmith of the Enquirer. Chase returned to practice on Wednesday after being held out of practice due to contract negotiations. While it is a promising sign to have seen Chase at practice over the past three days, he still considers himself a game-time call before Sunday's season opener. Fantasy managers should continue paying close attention to updates regarding the 24-year-old's status. Earlier on Friday, the No.2 receiver, Tee Higgins (hamstring), was not seen at practice. If both Chase and Higgins happen to suit up against the New England Patriots over the weekend, fantasy managers could expect both to play in a limited capacity, which may open more targets for Andrei Iosivas. However, no matter his capacity, Chase should be locked into all lineups if he plays.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey signed a massive three-year extension totaling $72.3M which makes him the highest-paid cornerback in the sport, according to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network. This deal was negotiated by David Mulugheta of Athletes First. The 29-year-old now once again sits as the highest-paid cornerback just days after Patrick Surtain of the Denver Broncos received his first NFL extension, which put him in the top spot for only a few days. Ramsey was limited to just ten games of NFL action last season but still made his mark by intercepting three passes and making 22 total tackles. Ramsey is currently battling a hamstring injury and is in danger of missing the season opener. Fantasy managers playing in an IDP league should continue to monitor the 29-year-old's status entering the weekend.
From RotoBaller
The New Orleans Saints' defense and special teams have one of the strongest Week 1 matchups as they face the Carolina Panthers. Although Pete Werner (shoulder), Willie Gay Jr. (back), and Marshon Lattimore (hip) are on the injury report, all three should be good to go on Sunday. New Orleans remains one of the stronger defensive units in the league, and performed strongly in both matchups with Carolina a season ago. Start the Saints' defense in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice will likely not miss any time during the 2024 season as he awaits a trial date for his felony charges of street racing, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Florio reports that a guilty plea in 2024 is unlikely as Rice has no official trial date. Florio's sources express that since the trial will not happen until December (at the earliest), there is no urgency to reach a plea deal. Florio further emphasized that Rice will likely be suspended at some time, but it is hard to picture that he will miss time this season. Fantasy managers who have Rice on their team should continue to follow any updates regarding his legal issues throughout the season in case he does miss time. After being a league-winner down the stretch last season, the 24-year-old continued his breakout run by catching seven passes for 103 yards in the season opener on Thursday. Rice should continue to be a lineup lock for the foreseeable future as he is shaping up to be Patrick Mahomes' go-to option in the passing game.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson opened camp up on the PUP list, but is now fully recovered from his June foot surgery. Johnson had a down season a year ago, finishing as the TE26 overall. The veteran is available in many leagues, but could emerge as a consistent target earner behind Chris Olave. He grades as a low-end TE2 for Week 1, making him a very deep option, but the matchup with Carolina is not a great one for tight ends. Leave Johnson on the waiver wire for now, but monitor his Week 1 target share.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill showed in the preseason that he again will be used in the Saints' offense, creating headaches for fantasy managers. Hill is a high-end TE2 in Week 1 against Carolina, whose porous rush defense may open up opportunities for Hill to find the endzone. He likely won't pay off without a touchdown but is a solid tight end flier if your team lacks one of the top options. Hill's red zone usage will determine if he can be a viable fantasy option after he finished as the TE10 a season ago.
From RotoBaller
Two new safeties, the loss of a key pass-rusher, and a linebacker on Injured Reserve. This is not the same Buffalo DST that finished third in fantasy football scoring a season ago. Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin take over for longtime starting safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Pass rusher Leonard Floyd moved to the Bay Area and linebacker Matt Milano (bicep) will miss most of the season with an injury. The coaching staff won't have the luxury of easing new faces into the starting lineup. While the Arizona Cardinals didn't improve their defense, the offense should take a big step forward. Kyler Murray is another season removed from an ACL tear and they added a number-one receiver (Marvin Harrison Jr.) through the NFL Draft. Add in running back James Conner and tight end Trey McBride and this offense has more than enough firepower to put up points. The Bills are a middle-of-the-pack DST for Week 1. Fantasy managers should be able to find another streaming option (Seattle, Atlanta, or Cincinnati) to plug and play in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints' second-year kicker Blake Grupe is an option at the kicker position heading into Week 1's tout with the Carolina Panthers. Grupe had a solid rookie season, converting 30-of-37 field goal attempts with a long of 55 yards. The Notre Dame product finished the season strong and will look to carry over his late-season success into Week 1. Carolina allowed the fourteenth-most points to kickers a season ago, making it a solid matchup for Grupe.
From RotoBaller
The one returning Buffalo Bill at the position, Khalil Shakir could become the top wide receiver option for Josh Allen in 2024. While he may be the betting favorite, the target distribution in Buffalo is one of the biggest question marks for fantasy football. Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Keon Coleman were all selected late in fantasy football drafts. Shakir will operate primarily out of the slot, giving him a safe PPR floor against a shaky Arizona defense. It's hard to project Shakir or any other wideouts booming in the team's season opener. Allen will spread the ball around while they establish a hierarchy. Because of the uncertainty, Shakir can be left on benches as a WR4 in most league formats and sizes. But if there's one Buffalo wide receiver to start in Week 1, it's Shakir.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints receiver Rashid Shaheed has been dealing with a foot injury over the past couple of weeks, but the third-year speedster avoided the injury report heading into Week 1's matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Shaheed could see a more consistent target share than he has in years past with Michael Thomas no longer on the roster, but he remains a boom-or-bust option until he proves otherwise. Against a Carolina defense that is favorable to the run game, Shaheed is best left on benches as a stash.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase was spotted at practice on Friday ahead of the team's Week 1 matchup against the New England Patriots. Despite his lengthy training camp hold-in, Chase appears on track to play Sunday. However, Tee Higgins showed up on the injury report on Thursday with a hamstring injury. After being a limited participant on Thursday, Higgins wasn't out on the field at the start of Friday's practice. Going from a limited participant to a non-participant this late in the week likely means he won't play on Sunday. Jermaine Burton and Andrei Iosivas would benefit if Higgins misses Sunday's contest.
From RotoBaller
The Buffalo Bills completely revamped their wide receiver room over the offseason, with one of the notable additions being Curtis Samuel. The do-it-all wideout has been good for at least 50 receptions in every season since 2019 (excluding a season-ending injury early in 2021) and a handful of carries out of the backfield. A turf toe injury has kept Samuel from fully participating in training camp and building a rapport with new quarterback Josh Allen. He's practicing in full leading up to the matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Still, there's too much uncertainty in target distribution in upstate New York. Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Samuel are all competing to be the top dog in Buffalo. Samuel is worth a bench spot in fantasy football while we wait to see who Allen favors to target, but shouldn't be started in the meantime.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints veteran running back Alvin Kamara is set to handle his typical workload on Sunday as he suits up to face the Carolina Panthers. With New Orleans favored, it is possible that we see them stick to the ground game against the divisional rival. Carolina's rush defense surrendered the 10th most yards in the league a season ago, and may have even more holes heading into 2024. With Kendre Miller (hamstring) on the injured reserve and Jamaal Williams coming off of a down year, Kamara should be set to dominate touches. He is a low-end RB1 in Week 1 in a plus matchup.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave should once again be set to lead the receiving room in 2024 after the departure of the oft-injured Michael Thomas. Olave was commonly selected in Round 2 of fantasy drafts this draft season, making it likely that he will be thrust into starting lineups in Week 1. Expectations should be tempered, as Carolina offers a strong matchup on the ground but a weaker matchup for receivers. Olave is in WR2 territory entering his season debut, and is the favorite to lead the team in targets.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints' quarterback Derek Carr finished as the QB16 overall last season after some impressive games down the stretch. To kick off 2024, he will face a Carolina defense that has many holes. The matchup still isn't beautiful, as both of these teams like to win through their defense and we could be faced with a lower-scoring game. Carr grades as a low-end QB2 in Week 1, as he has a safe floor but does not offer much of a ceiling. There are likely better options available in leagues where you can start multiple quarterbacks.
From RotoBaller
How will the target share be spread out in Buffalo? That's the question many fantasy managers are asking as we approach the Bills' season opener. Tight end Dalton Kincaid is projected to lead the team, with receivers Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel not far behind. Coleman, a second-round pick, is unlike the other two receivers. He's a big body who can develop into a deep threat. He struggles with separation, an issue that could impact him early, even against a weak Arizona secondary. The key is whether Josh Allen and the rookie have developed enough chemistry and timing to get the football where Coleman can make a play. It wouldn't be a big surprise to see Coleman break off a long reception in his NFL debut, but it's a risky gamble. It's safer for fantasy managers to watch how the target and snap shares shake out before inserting Coleman into starting lineups.
From RotoBaller
With 241 targets vacated between the now-departed Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, tight end Dalton Kincaid takes the title of Buffalo's top receiver. When Kincaid was given the starting job midway through last season, he secured at least five receptions in every matchup from Weeks 7 through 14. He finished second on the team in targets (91). Rookie Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel are his primary target competitors in year two. The sportsbooks are banking on the talented second-year professional improving and adding more offensive responsibility to his plate in 2024. He's the betting favorite to lead the Bills in receptions and yards on Sunday. The breakout candidate was drafted as a TE1 in fantasy football and should be started as such against the Cardinals.
From RotoBaller
When Josh Allen wasn't poaching touchdowns from James Cook in 2023, it was 33-year-old Latavius Murray. The veteran logged 17 carries inside the 10 and 11 inside the five-yard line. That role is now projected to be filled by rookie Ray Davis, a fourth-round pick out of Kentucky. The 24-year-old scored 14 touchdowns in his senior season and has the size to finish runs in the red zone. He'll open the season behind James Cook and Ty Johnson on the depth chart. The backups will split a limited amount of touches in Week 1, depending on the situation. Without a healthy amount of opportunities, Davis will need to find paydirt to turn a respectable fantasy football debut. He's a bench stash until proven otherwise.
From RotoBaller
There's little concern for the top quarterback in fantasy football in Week 1. Josh Allen, who finished as the QB1 in three of the last four seasons, will face off against the Arizona Cardinals at home. While the Cardinals' offense has improved from a year ago, the defense remains a work in progress. The roster is devoid of quality pass rushers. Allen should have all day to throw the football, letting his new receiving corps shake the secondary. He ranked second in clean pocket accuracy rating in 2023. Rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir are tasked with replacing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Tight end Dalton Kincaid will also be heavily involved. There's no reason to shy away from Allen in Week 1.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook is again opening the season as the lead back in Buffalo. Despite concerns over touches near the endzone, Cook should be started in all fantasy football leagues. A low touchdown total (six) was the only blemish from Cook's RB12 finish from a season ago. He totaled 1,567 yards and caught 44 passes, despite only playing more than 70% of the team's snaps once. Cook could be even more involved in the passing game in 2024, with two of Buffalo's top target earners (Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis) on other rosters. The Cardinals ranked dead last in rushing yards allowed to running backs in 2023 (2,027) and surrendered eight receiving touchdowns to the position, the most in the NFL. Even if Cook is vultured by Josh Allen or rookie Ray Davis in the red zone, it should still be a productive day for fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
