Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Justin Watson caught two passes for 60 yards and a touchdown in the 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day. The 28-year-old grew up just outside of Pittsburgh, so he got to score in his homecoming game. Watson received just two targets in this game but ended up third on the team in receiving yardage due to a 49-yard chunk play. Despite finding the endzone in this contest, Watson is typically the fourth or fifth option on any given play. His lack of volume in the passing game leads to volatility, but Watson has proven he can break off a big play in any game. The Chiefs clinched the top seed in the AFC with their Christmas Day win, meaning they no longer need to start their stars in the regular season. Watson and the rest of the supporting cast could see more playing time in Week 18 against the Denver Broncos.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco handled six carries for 18 yards in the 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. Pacheco was forced out of the game in the fourth quarter with a rib injury and did not return. The severity of Pacheco's rib injury is not yet known. The 25-year-old once again played second fiddle to veteran Kareem Hunt, but both backs were inefficient on the ground. Pacheco also did not receive any work in the passing game this week. With Hunt receiving more work every week and Pacheco picking up a rib injury, the Chiefs likely lean in Hunt's direction the next time both backs are active. The Chiefs have nothing left to play for in the regular season since they clinched the top seed in the AFC with this win. Pacheco should be expected to rest in Week 18 against the Denver Broncos.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy caught eight passes for 79 yards and a touchdown in the 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day. Worthy started the scoring in the first quarter and was only up from there. The rookie set new career highs in receptions and receiving yards against the strong Steelers defense in Week 17. Worthy has been the Chiefs WR1 over the last few weeks, and that usage has translated into valuable fantasy production. The 21-year-old contributed to this win and helped the Chiefs clinch the top seed in the AFC. Kansas City no longer has any incentive to win in the regular season, given they have already guaranteed themselves home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Worthy and the rest of the starters should be expected to rest in Week 18 against the Denver Broncos.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt handled nine carries for 20 yards and a touchdown in the 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Hunt found himself with the most carries out of the backfield for another week and got into the endzone despite being inefficient on the ground. The 29-year-old averaged just 2.2 yards per carry in this contest against a formidable defense, but his rushing score saved his fantasy day. Fellow running back Isiah Pacheco split work with Hunt before leaving the game in the fourth quarter with a rib injury. Neither back saw any work in the passing game this week, with all the receiving work going to Samaje Perine. The Chiefs clinched the top seed in the AFC with this Christmas Day win, meaning they have nothing left to play for in the regular season. Hunt and the rest of the starters should be expected to sit out Week 18 against the Denver Broncos.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce caught eight passes for 84 yards and a touchdown in the 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day. The veteran tight end had not scored a touchdown in six straight games coming into this contest but passed Tony Gonzalez for the Chiefs franchise touchdown record when he found the endzone in the fourth quarter. Despite not scoring double-digit fantasy points in Weeks 14 through 16, Kelce pulled off a vintage performance in Week 17. The 35-year-old led the team in catches, receiving yards, and targets against the Steelers. The Chiefs officially clinched the top seed in the AFC with this win, guaranteeing them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With nothing left to play for in the regular season, Kelce should be expected to rest in Week 18 against the Denver Broncos.
From RotoBaller
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed 29 of 38 pass attempts (76%) for 320 yards and three touchdowns in the 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mahomes passed for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns for the first time this year in Week 17. The veteran quarterback also rushed once for 12 yards in this game. After leading the league in interceptions to begin the year, Mahomes has now gone six straight games without a turnover. With this win, the Chiefs have officially locked up the top seed in the AFC. Given that the team has nothing to gain by playing their starters next week, it should be assumed that we have seen the last of Mahomes in the regular season. That said, Mahomes did tell the media that he will prepare to start in Week 18 against the Broncos until Coach Andy Reid says otherwise.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell was successful on both his lone field goal attempt and lone extra-point try of a 29-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Boswell was good from 36 yards out in the third quarter but was otherwise not asked to do much as Pittsburgh's offense struggled to move the ball on Wednesday. While it is unfortunate that Boswell underwhelmed throughout the fantasy playoffs, the 33-year-old was incredibly impactful for much of the regular season and has cemented himself as one of the best kickers in the NFL. He'll close out the campaign with a divisional showdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Calvin Austin III posted four receptions for 31 yards on five targets in a 29-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Although Austin was quiet for fantasy purposes, it was encouraging to see him remain involved in the offense despite the return of fellow wideout George Pickens. Austin has now earned five opportunities in three straight contests and is clearly the WR2 in Pittsburgh ahead of Mike Williams and Van Jefferson. He is worth rostering in dynasty formats and will hope to close out the regular season on a high note against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens hauled in just three of his seven targets for 50 yards in a Week 17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers struggled to get much of anything going on offense in this one, but Pickens didn't appear to be hampered by his hamstring injury that kept him sidelined from Weeks 14 through 16. He made an impressive catch for a 41-yard gain on a deep ball from quarterback Russell Wilson and had an 18-yard reception in the fourth quarter called back due to an offside penalty. Although fantasy managers that deployed Pickens in his return were likely let down by this performance, he should still be viewed as a solid WR2 against the Cincinnati Bengals in any leagues that compete in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth finished with seven receptions for 60 yards on eight targets in a 29-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Freiermuth operated as quarterback Russell Wilson's go-to guy for much of the contest, but he unfortunately lost a fumble early in the fourth quarter with Kansas City's lead still within reach. It was his second lost fumble of the season and just the third of his four-year career. Nonetheless, Freiermuth was solid for fantasy purposes and led the Steelers in targets, catches, and receiving yards. He'll look to turn in another strong showing in next week's regular-season finale against the Cincinnati Bengals.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews keeps adding to the franchise-leading receiving touchdown number as he scored in his fifth consecutive game. During the 31-2 Christmas victory, he finished with two receptions for 68 yards and one touchdown on two targets. Almost all of his yards came on his 67-yard catch while his touchdown came on a goal-line throw in the third quarter which put them up by 29. After not finding the end zone in the team's first five games, Andrews is up to 10 touchdowns with one game left against the Cleveland Browns.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers didn't quite join in on the fun during the 31-2 blowout over the Houston Texans on Christmas. The speedy wideout ended the game with two catches for 31 yards on five targets. While he was the only pass-catcher to see more than two targets, he finished with the second-most yards and no touchdowns. Despite breaking the 1,000-yard mark this year, he's scored one fewer touchdown than all of last season. He'll try to tie his five-touchdown figure in their final game against the Cleveland Browns.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely was incredibly efficient with his only target of the night on Christmas. He registered one reception for a nine-yard touchdown on one target during the 31-2 blowout over the Houston Texans. The game script called for a lot more carries on the ground (43) compared to pass attempts (17). While both tight ends continue to be viable options for Lamar Jackson, they don't always produce fantasy-relevant games at the same time. Likely will look to find the end zone again in their regular season finale against the Cleveland Browns.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren turned 11 carries into 71 yards and six targets into five catches and 41 receiving yards in a Week 17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Warren was one of the few bright spots for the Steelers' offensive attack on Wednesday and consistently looked explosive with the ball in his hands. He saw more opportunities than backfield mate Najee Harris, who was ineffective for most of the contest. Warren's solid performance early in the first quarter earned him a few opportunities in the red zone, one of which he took in for an eight-yard score that was unfortunately nullified by a holding penalty. The 26-year-old has logged at least 92 total yards in each of his past two games and will look to end the campaign on a hot streak against the Cincinnati Bengals next week.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson completed 23 of 37 pass attempts for 205 scoreless yards and one interception in a 29-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. However, Wilson was responsible for Pittsburgh's lone touchdown of the day, adding 55 rushing yards and a score on six carries. The Steelers struggled to protect Wilson on Wednesday as the veteran took five sacks and frequently could not find an open receiver before being swarmed by Kansas City's pass rush. After a solid start to his tenure in Pittsburgh, Wilson is 0-3 over the past three weeks with at least one turnover in each contest. He'll hope to end the regular season on a positive note next week against the division-rival Cincinnati Bengals.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry received his favorite present of all, facing the Houston Texans run defense. Going into the Christmas game, he averaged 102.2 yards per game against them with 12 rushing touchdowns. In this one, he finished with 147 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries to go along with two receptions for 18 yards on two targets. The only time he was contained in this matchup was when he was tackled for a safety in the second quarter. Coincidentally, those were the only points the Texans scored. Henry will face off against the Cleveland Browns in the regular season finale to try to win the division.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris handled 13 carries for 74 yards and hauled in two of his four targets for seven yards in a 29-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Harris split backfield work with Jaylen Warren fairly evenly in this one but gained 45 of his rushing yards on Pittsburgh's last possession with the game already out of reach. Warren was much more efficient than Harris throughout the rest of the contest, however. Along with the rest of the Steelers' offense, Harris is in the midst of a rough stretch right now. He will hope to bounce back next week in a showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals, who he performed extremely well against back in Week 13.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson moved to 2-0 on Christmas Day games after leading the team to a 31-2 blowout over the Houston Texans. The MVP candidate finished the game with 168 yards and two touchdowns on 10-for-15 throwing while adding four carries for 87 yards and another touchdown. The first score of the second half came on a 48-yard run by Jackson, who outran the entire defense into the end zone. The Ravens were so comfortably in the lead after the third quarter that Jackson was able to get some rest in the fourth. They now control their division destiny and will take on the Cleveland Browns to finish the regular season.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. (ankle) was listed as a non-participant on Wednesday's practice estimation. The Giants did not practice Wednesday, but if they had, the rookie would not have participated. Tracy picked up the injury during Sunday's loss to the Atlanta Falcons in which he rushed just seven times but carved out a big role in the passing game, catching all four of his targets for 43 yards and one score through the air. Fantasy managers should monitor the Giants' injury reports over the next few days to understand whether Tracy will play in Week 17 against the Indianapolis Colts. If he can't suit up, Devin Singletary would likely operate as the Giants' primary running back.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (knee) was a limited participant during Wednesday's practice. The veteran has maintained the same practice status for two days in a row; he had also been limited in Tuesday's walkthrough. The Cardinals will hold one more practice on Thursday before releasing their final injury report. If Conner can log a full session, he might be able to avoid an official injury designation. Otherwise, he could end up being listed as questionable for Week 17, which would leave his status in doubt until the Cardinals' list of inactives gets released on Saturday evening. Fantasy managers certainly hope that Conner will be able to suit up. He has remained a top fantasy option in his age-29 season, ranking as the RB9 overall with 1,090 rushing yards, 410 receiving yards, and nine total touchdowns. He should continue to be deployed as a top-12 fantasy running backs, assuming he suits up Saturday against the Los Angeles Rams.
From RotoBaller