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FFL: Week 1 | NFL: Week 1

RB Strength of Schedule

Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Robinson setup for big season


Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.

  RB SOS  
1. Green Bay Packers 356.01
2. Houston Texans 361.46
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 361.46
4. Las Vegas Raiders 361.48
5. Seattle Seahawks 362.28
6. Buffalo Bills 363.19
7. Arizona Cardinals 363.76
8. Dallas Cowboys 363.9
9. Jacksonville Jaguars 364.51
10. Washington Commanders 364.86
11. Chicago Bears 364.89
12. Indianapolis Colts 365.41
13. San Francisco 49ers 365.86
14. New Orleans Saints 366.49
15. New York Jets 368.23
16. Detroit Lions 368.49
17. Philadelphia Eagles 369.05
18. Minnesota Vikings 369.06
19. Carolina Panthers 369.88
20. Cleveland Browns 370.34
21. Kansas City Chiefs 371.71
22. New York Giants 372.21
23. Los Angeles Chargers 373.19
24. Denver Broncos 373.32
25. Cincinnati Bengals 373.66
26. Los Angeles Rams 374.09
27. Baltimore Ravens 374.16
28. New England Patriots 375.60
29. Atlanta Falcons 376.19
30. Miami Dolphins 377.49
31. Tennessee Titans 378.2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers 378.72


The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.

The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.

The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.

The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.

The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.

Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.

The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.

We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.

  RB PLAYOFF SOS  
1. San Francisco 49ers 291.43
2. Washington Commanders 325.2
3. Houston Texans 327.8
4. Pittsburgh Steelers 332.03
5. New York Jets 337.57
6. Cleveland Browns 340.8
7. Las Vegas Raiders 341.1
8. Miami Dolphins 348.27
9. Chicago Bears 350.37
10. Buffalo Bills 350.53
11. Arizona Cardinals 352.8
12. Dallas Cowboys 358.87
13. Detroit Lions 359.7
14. New York Giants 365.67
15. Kansas City Chiefs 366.53
16. Green Bay Packers 368.97
17. Seattle Seahawks 370.23
18. Carolina Panthers 377.15
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 378.37
20. Los Angeles Chargers 380.73
21. Jacksonville Jaguars 381
22. Baltimore Ravens 381.43
23. Cincinnati Bengals 383.50
24. Philadelphia Eagles 391.07
25. New England Patriots 397.95
26. Indianapolis Colts 398.40
27. Denver Broncos 399.53
28. Tennessee Titans 401.63
29. Los Angeles Rams 403.92
30. New Orleans Saints 406.33
31. Minnesota Vikings 407.87
32. Atlanta Falcons 422.4

 

There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.

And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.

Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.

One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.

Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.

So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.

Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.

The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Spencer Shrader Sep 7 1:30pm ET
Spencer Shrader

The Indianapolis Colts elevated rookie kicker Spencer Shrader and cornerback Chris Lammons from the practice squad to the active 53-man roster on Saturday in advance of the Week 1 regular-season opener on Sunday against the division-rival Houston Texans. This is a clear sign that starting kicker Matt Gay (hernia), who is listed as questionable for Week 1, will end up being inactive on Sunday morning after he recently underwent surgery for a sports hernia. Gay is questionable to kick on Sunday, but he missed practice all week and is probably more doubtful than anything. Fantasy managers that were planning to use Gay in Week 1 should have already been looking for other options this weekend. Rolling with Shrader in his first NFL game would be unwise given all the other options available on the waiver wire.

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Jaelon Darden Sep 7 1:20pm ET
Jaelon Darden

The Cleveland Browns signed wide receiver Jaelon Darden to their active 53-man roster on Saturday and also elevated cornerback Mike Ford Jr. and offensive tackle Germain Ifedi to the active roster ahead of their Week 1 showdown in Cleveland against the Dallas Cowboys. The Browns released former third-rounder David Bell earlier this week, so the 25-year-old Darden will essentially replace him on Cleveland's roster as additional receiver depth behind Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. Darden will be competing for playing time with Cedric Tillman and rookie Jamari Thrash and is off the fantasy radar everywhere for now. Darden was originally drafted in the fourth round in 2021 out of North Texas by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last year in 16 games with the Browns, he only served as a kick returner on special teams and wasn't involved in the offense.

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Tee Higgins Sep 7 1:10pm ET
Tee Higgins

New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers (hip) was added to the Week 1 injury report on Saturday and is now questionable to suit up for the season opener on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Peppers is one of the team's key defenders, not just in the secondary, so not having him on Sunday would be a big blow as the Pats try to slow down a Bengals offense that could be without its top two receivers in Ja'Marr Chase (holdout) and Tee Higgins (hamstring). The 28-year-old is worth stashing in IDP leagues but should probably be on benches in Week 1 now that he's up in the air to play. The former 25th overall pick in 2017 out of Michigan is heading into his third year in New England after racking up 87 solo tackles, seven tackles for loss, two interceptions, eight pass breakups, a forced fumble, two fumble recoveries and a sack in 32 games (20 starts) over the last two years.

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Jordan Love Sep 7 12:10pm ET
Jordan Love

According to NFL Media's Tom Pelissero, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love's (knee) ACL is "intact." The latest update comes after ESPN's Diana Russini indicated the signal-caller would undergo an MRI once the Packers' flight from Brazil landed, adding that an ankle injury was "ruled out." Love, who signed a lucrative extension during the offseason, played most of Friday's opener versus the Eagles before suffering a leg injury with only seconds remaining in the contest. At this point, fantasy managers are willing to accept an absence of a game or two, considering the alternative. But until Love is cleared to return to the field, Malik Willis is the favorite to take over under center, with the former Titan failing to connect on his only pass attempt in Week 1.

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Jacoby Brissett Sep 7 10:30am ET
Jacoby Brissett

The Cincinnati Bengals' defense should be started in all fantasy leagues ahead of their Week 1 matchup against the New England Patriots. While the Bengals ranked near the middle of the league for fantasy points in 2023, they get a juicy matchup against the Patriots to open the 2024 season. New England is widely expected to be the worst team in the NFL this year and the Bengals' defensive unit could have a field day against Jacoby Brissett and company. Not only is Cincinnati worth starting in fantasy football, but they also rank as a top-three unit with the potential to finish as this week's No. 1 defense.

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Matt Gay Sep 7 9:50am ET
Matt Gay

Indianapolis Colts kicker Matt Gay (hernia) is officially questionable for Sunday's game against the Houston Texans. Although he was officially listed as a non-participant in practice all three days this week, head coach Shane Steichen did note that Gay has been doing some kicking. Therefore, with the questionable tag, Indianapolis is leaving the door open for him to play. In the event that he can't suit up, the Colts could choose to elevate Spencer Shrader from the practice squad. Shrader was 4-for-4 on field goals and 2-for-2 on extra points during the preseason. Gay would rank as a low-end K1 option if he does play in the season opener.

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Tyler Bass Sep 7 9:50am ET
Tyler Bass

Buffalo Bills kicker Tyler Bass is worth starting in most leagues ahead of Week 1 versus the Arizona Cardinals. Although Bass is coming off a down year in which he made just 82.8 percent of his field goals and tied his career-low for extra point attempts, he's still someone worth considering for lineups given the strong state of Buffalo's offense. In particular, Bass could find himself busy this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-most points per game to opposing offenses in 2023. The 27-year-old kicker is still a top-12 fantasy option this week.

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Kayvon Thibodeaux Sep 7 9:43am ET
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The New York Giants defense could be the surprise play of Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings. With a formidable front seven (including pass rush specialist Brian Burns, stud players Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence) and a secondary brimming with high draft picks (such as 2023 first-round pick Deonte Banks), they're poised to challenge Sam Darnold early. While facing the daunting task of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the Giants' defense managed to create 12 interceptions last season, showing their potential if they can pressure Darnold into mistakes. With new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, the Giants could see a significant resurgence on the defensive side of the ball, offering hope to fantasy managers.

Jerod Mayo Sep 7 9:43am ET
Jerod Mayo

The New England Patriots' defense falls outside the top-12 units in fantasy football for Week 1. The Patriots are set to kick off their season against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Cincinnati has an offense with plenty of firepower, but there are real questions about their pass-catching group this week with Ja'Marr Chase (personal) questionable and Tee Higgins (hamstring) doubtful. There's a chance that the Bengals could be without their top two receivers, leaving Joe Burrow with Andrei Iosivas, Jermaine Burton, and Trenton Irwin at his disposal. But even if the Bengals do find themselves short-staffed on Sunday, New England will still be difficult to trust in fantasy football. The Patriots have one of the worst offenses, which means the Bengals should win the time of possession battle and therefore be gifted extra opportunities to score. New England also suffered key losses this offseason, headlined by Matthew Judon being traded to Atlanta and Christian Barmore (blood clots) being sidelined until further notice. With a tough matchup and reduced playmakers, the Patriots' defense lacks fantasy appeal in Week 1. You can probably find better options on the waiver wire.

T.J. Watt Sep 7 9:42am ET
T.J. Watt

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense/special teams was great for fantasy purposes last season and will kick off the 2024 campaign in Atlanta against the Falcons. The Steelers allowed the eighth-fewest points in the NFL in 2023, and although the Falcons scored just under 19 points per contest, Atlanta's offense should be much improved this season with Kirk Cousins under center. Nonetheless, Sunday will be Cousins' first game action since tearing his Achilles last October and it may take some time for the new-look Falcons offense to find its rhythm. The Steelers boast the most expensive defense in the league and have the talent to show for it. Fantasy managers should feel confident rolling with the Steelers D/ST in their lineups this week.

Darious Williams Sep 7 9:41am ET
Darious Williams

The Los Angeles Rams' defense/special teams is not in a good fantasy situation in Week 1 at the Detroit Lions. The Lions feature a loaded offense led by former Rams quarterback Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery in the backfield. Not helping issues is the fact that the Rams will be without starting defensive back Darious Williams while they deal with the Lions' explosive offense. Williams was placed on IR with a strained hamstring. The post-Aaron Donald era could get off to a rough start for the Rams in this matchup. In a game that features one of the highest totals of the week, it is best to stay away from the Rams' defense. There should be better D/ST options available in your league.

Marcus Mariota Sep 7 9:30am ET
Marcus Mariota

Washington Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota (chest, pectoral) has officially been ruled out for Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He had been limited on Wednesday but then did not practice on Thursday or Friday. His absence means that Washington will head into its first game of the year with Jeff Driskel backing up Jayden Daniels. Of course, Daniels, this year's No. 1 pick, is the only Washington quarterback worth rostering in fantasy football. He's a mid-to-low QB1 option against the Buccaneers.

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Byron Pringle Sep 7 9:20am ET
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Washington Commanders wide receiver Byron Pringle was released on Friday, according to an announcement from the team. Pringle's best NFL season came in 2021 with the Chiefs. Last year with Washington, he appeared in all 17 games, catching 14 passes for 161 yards but zero touchdowns. He re-signed with the Commanders during the offseason but evidently won't crack the 53-man roster heading into Week 1 versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Terry McLaurin remains the only surefire fantasy receiver in this offense, but rookie Luke McCaffrey could make a name for himself with solid volume and production.

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Josh Allen Sep 7 7:00am ET
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Trey McBride Sep 7 6:20am ET
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Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride is expected to pick up where he left off following his breakout last year. Drafted in 2022, McBride was hardly involved in the offense at all until Zach Ertz was placed on injured reserve halfway through the 2023 season. Once McBride had the TE1 role to himself, he took off, ending the season with the team lead in targets (106), receptions (81), and receiving yards (825). McBride was targeted on 27% of routes run in 2023, tops among tight ends, and his 2.10 yards per route run ranked second behind George Kittle. Arizona faces the Buffalo Bills in the season opener on Sunday. Despite their solid defense, McBride should be locked into starting rosters and should finish as a TE1.

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Matt Prater Sep 7 6:20am ET
Matt Prater

Arizona Cardinals kicker Matt Prater will begin his 18th NFL season when the team takes on the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. Prater is the active leader in career field goals with 401 and is second on the list in career extra points. Last season Prater was 28-for-33 on field goal attempts and made all but one of his 23 extra point tries. With a healthy Kyler Murray leading the way, Arizona's offense should be more effective out of the gate than it was in 2023 which will lead to more opportunities for Prater to put points on the board. Buffalo is expected to score at will against Arizona's defense on Sunday. If the Cardinals can stay competitive it will be because they engage in a shootout which, again, means more chances to score for Prater. The veteran kicker is not the best option out there but he is widely available, has a strong leg (nine FGs of 50+ yards in 2023), and will be featured in a high-scoring matchup.

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Greg Dortch Sep 7 6:10am ET
Greg Dortch

Now entering his fifth NFL season, Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Greg Dortch may finally have a regular role carved out for himself in 2024. Buzz has been building around Dortch throughout the preseason as he has shown chemistry with quarterback Kyler Murray and demonstrated excellent route running ability. Lauded rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and third-year tight end Trey McBride are the top two targets in Arizona's offense but Dortch should see a fair amount out of the slot. The Cardinals face the Bills in Week 1 and while Buffalo's secondary will be a challenge, in 2023 they gave up more fantasy points per game to receivers lined up in the slot versus out wide. Dortch projects to be in WR5 territory in Week 1. While he may be worth a flex in deeper leagues, he should be held out of lineups in 10- or 12-teamers.

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Marvin Harrison Jr. Sep 7 6:00am ET
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Arizona Cardinals selected Marvin Harrison Jr. is set to make his regular season debut on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. During the preseason, the former Buckeye was kept out of harm's way for the most part, seeing only three snaps in all. The fourth overall selection of the NFL Draft, Harrison is already listed as the team's WR1 and is expected to have an immediate impact. The Bills won't make it easy, as they are the only team returning three cornerbacks with coverage grades of 81.0 or higher from PFF. Still, given the combination of talent, draft capital, and the team situation, Arizona should be feeding Harrison as many targets as possible. Harrison looks like a safe WR2 with upside in Week 1.

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Trey Benson Sep 7 5:50am ET
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Arizona Cardinals running back Trey Benson finished the preseason with 17 carries for 64 rushing yards. The third-round pick out of Florida State was once believed to be a threat to James Conner's playing time but it appears the rookie will have to wait a while before he makes his mark on the league. In recent comments to the press, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing reaffirmed the team's commitment to using Conner as their primary running back, referring to him as the "bell cow in that room." While Benson's performance during training camp and the preseason solidified his role as Conner's direct backup, not much should be expected of the rookie out of the gate. Given Conner's injury history, Benson is certainly a worthwhile bench stash but the bench is exactly where he should be on fantasy rosters in Week 1.

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James Conner Sep 7 5:40am ET
James Conner

When the Arizona Cardinals open their season on Sunday, it will mark running back James Conner's eighth as a pro, and his fourth with the team. Since joining the Cardinals in 2021, Conner has the eleventh-most carries in the league despite missing seven games due to injury over the last two seasons and starting only six games in 2021. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing recently told the media that Conner is "the bell cow in that room," signaling he will maintain his role despite rookie Trey Benson's presence on the depth chart. In 2023, Conner turned in his first 1,000-yard season and finished with the third-most rushing yards per game (80.0). The Buffalo Bills have a stout defense but last season had a weakness against running backs, allowing 4.4 yards per carry (eighth-worst in the NFL) and 6.33 yards per target (fourth-worst) to the position. Conner can be started as a solid RB2 option in Week 1.

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