Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 11
Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey had a big game in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. McConkey ended up leading the team in targets, catches, and yards, making six catches on nine targets for 123 yards. The rookie ended up missing a few plays after being forced to leave with a shoulder injury, but he was back on the field soon after. He made some huge catches at the end of the fourth quarter that helped lead the Chargers to score a game winning touchdown with just 18 seconds left in the game. McConkey has clearly gotten comfortable with quarterback Justin Herbert and is often the first read over the middle of the field. He should continue as a solid and reliable WR3 option most weeks.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers caught just four passes on six targets for 28 yards and rushed for an additional 28 yards, netting him 8.8 PPR points in fantasy football on the week as his team fell to the Miami Dolphins 19-34. It was a quieter day than usual for Meyers, and he had less than half the target volume of teammate tight end Brock Bowers. Meyers is the clear WR1 of this team, but he was handled effectively by Dolphins quarterback Jalen Ramsey and his fellow defensive backs. Things won't get any easier in Week 11, when Las Vegas has a date with the Denver Broncos -- cornerback Patrick Surtain II is elite and is licking his chops at a chance to lock down Meyers. He's a risky start next week, as are all WRs that face the Broncos.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders running back Ameer Abdullah rushed just one time for one yard and caught three passes for sixteen yards, but one of those receptions went for a touchdown in his team's Week 11 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Teammate Alexander Mattison (ankle) was pulled from the game with an ankle injury, allowing Abdullah to earn some playing time. He capitalized by finding the end zone. It's not known whether Mattison will play in Week 11, but even if he doesn't, Abdullah may have to compete with Zamir White (quad). If neither can play, it's probably not worth starting him anyway, as he will fact a stiff Denver Broncos defense that just held Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson to 63 total yards and 2.9 yards per carry.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins scored two touchdowns in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Dobbins ran the ball 11 times, gaining 56 yards and scoring on the ground twice. He was only targeted once in the passing game and made the grab for a three-yard gain. Dobbins ran well in this one despite a usually strong Bengals run defense. His first touchdown was on a one-yard goal line plunge in the second quarter, and his second was a game-clincher in the fourth quarter that came on a 29-yard rush with 18 seconds left. Dobbins was once again in charge of this backfield despite only tallying 11 carries, as all other Chargers running backs combined for eight total carries. Dobbins will again be on the RB2 radar next week on Monday Night Football against the Ravens.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper (wrist) caught two passes for 55 yards in the team's 30-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Cooper returned to the lineup after missing the last two games with a wrist injury. Unfortunately, he didn't see a lot of opportunities. Josh Allen only targeted Cooper three times. Fortunately, there were no setbacks to his injury and he'll have extra time to further recover as Buffalo takes their bye week. The veteran will be a WR3 when the Bills host the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew II completed 30 of his 43 pass attempts for 282 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in his Week 11 loss to the Miami Dolphins. He also carried the ball two times for seven yards. He was once again outmatched by the opposing quarterback, and wasn't able to lift his team to a victory, in what is becoming a common theme for the team. He actually started the game by leading drives of 61 and 66 yards, but both ended with field goals. His TDs twice brought the Raiders within five points of the opposition, but the offense fizzled, and he threw a pick to effectively seal the deal on his next drive. He's likely to be the starter again next week, but will be a risky option in fantasy -- Las Vegas will face the tough Denver Broncos defense, which just handled the Atlanta Falcons with ease.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards tallied just six carries in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Edwards ran it the six times for a total of 27 yards with a long run of nine yards. He was not targeted in the passing game. Edwards settled in behind starter J.K. Dobbins in a role that he'll likely fill for the rest of the season as long as everyone remains healthy. Edwards does not have much standalone value, but he could be an immediate fantasy starter if Dobbins were ever forced to miss any time.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir caught eight of 12 targets for 70 yards in the team's 30-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. The slot receiver led the Bills in targets, receptions, and yards. However, he did not find the endzone. Buffalo's lone passing touchdown went in Curtis Samuel's direction. Shakir hasn't scored since Week 3. Still, he's been Allen's go-to receiver this season and will be in the WR2/3 range when Buffalo returns from their bye week.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. stayed involved in the offense in Sunday's 38-6 blowout win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 11 after receiving a season-high seven touches in last week's loss to the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs. Mims caught both of his targets for 49 yards and his first touchdown of the year while also carrying the ball three times for a pickup of four yards. The 22-year-old, who also contributes on special teams in the return game, has given the surging Broncos offense a different dynamic the last two weeks, but his involvement hasn't been enough to really turn the heads of fantasy managers. That will especially be the case whenever Josh Reynolds (finger) returns from Injured Reserve. With quarterback Bo Nix spreading the ball around to a receiving corps that is suddenly ripe with options, Mims will continue to struggle to find weekly fantasy relevance.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel caught five of six targets for 58 yards and a touchdown in the team's 30-21 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Those were season-best marks in catches and yards. It was also his first touchdown of the 2024 campaign and the only touchdown pass for Buffalo in Week 11. Samuel took advantage of Keon Coleman's (wrist) absence by operating as Josh Allen's primary outside receiver. The Bills will take their bye in Week 12. Coleman could be back when the Bills return to action which would move Samuel back down the depth chart.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert had an up and down game in a Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Herbert was excellent in the first half before struggling in most of the second half but then turning it on for a game-winning drive at the end. In total, Herbert completed 17 of the 36 passes he attempted for 297 yards and two touchdowns. He did not throw an interception, but took two sacks and lost a fumble. On the ground, he added 65 yards on five carries, leading the team in rushing yards. The Chargers ended up with an important win, and will play again in eight days for Week 12's edition of Monday Night Football.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox caught four passes for 40 yards in the team's win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Knox started and operated as Buffalo's top tight end with Dalton Kincaid (knee) inactive. That resulted in a season-high mark for receptions and targets (six). His stat line provided a respectable fantasy score for managers who streamed the position. Buffalo will take their bye week in Week 12. When they return to action, Kincaid may be healthy enough to play. Knox can be dropped in most leagues.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen completed 27 of 40 passes for 262 yards and one touchdown in the team's 30-21 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. He ran for 55 rushing yards and another touchdown. He also threw one interception. Allen was trending toward a poor fantasy performance entering the fourth quarter. He connected with Curtis Samuel on a 12-yard score at the beginning of the frame. Allen's touchdown rush came from 26 yards out with just over two minutes remaining to seal the victory. The Bills take a 9-2 record into their bye week.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London led his team in receiving yards, but it didn't amount to much in a 38-6 blowout loss to the Broncos on Sunday. The 23-year-old caught three of seven targets for 61 scoreless yards. After scoring in six of the Falcons' first nine games, the former first-round draft pick has been held out of the end zone in two consecutive weeks. Even so, Sunday marked the ninth time in 11 games that the USC product drew at least six targets, so he's maintained a strong role in this offense. When the team comes out of the bye in Week 13, another challenge could await against the Chargers, although they haven't been as stingy in allowing fantasy points to receivers in recent weeks as they had been earlier in the year. London is likely a back-end WR1 in that matchup.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie running back Audric Estime was a hot waiver-wire pickup heading into Week 11 against the Atlanta Falcons after leading Denver's backfield in the Week 10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. However, Estime took a back seat to Javonte Williams in the 38-6 win over the Falcons, carrying the ball six times for only 16 yards and catching all three of his targets for nine yards. Williams finished with 13 touches for 87 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. The 21-year-old fifth-rounder from Notre Dame saw most of his work in the second half with the game already in hand. While Estime did not serve as the lead back on Sunday, he'll most likely work in tandem with Williams as at least the RB2 for the Broncos ahead of Jaleel McLaughlin moving forward. That will give him some low-end RB3/flex appeal in Week 12 versus the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook rushed nine times for 20 yards and caught five passes for seven yards in the team's 30-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. As anticipated, Cook struggled to find running room against an outstanding Kansas City run defense. He countered his low efficiency with two short rushing touchdowns, one in the first quarter and one in the second. In the end, Cook nearly reached a 20-point day in PPR formats. Cook and the Bills have a bye in Week 12.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki was unable to catch either of his two targets during Sunday's Week 11 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Gesicki has been streaky this season. Sometimes, he occupies a significant target share and delivers low-end TE1 value. Other times, he takes a backseat in the passing attack and is avoidable in all leagues. This week was classified as the latter; Gesicki was held without a catch for the first time since Week 6, snapping an impressive three-game stretch over which he had caught 16 passes for 203 yards and a pair of scores. The 29-year-old will likely rank as a fringe top-24 fantasy tight end when the Bengals return to action on the other side of their Week 12 bye.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton had another highly productive day in the 38-6 blowout win over the visiting Atlanta Falcons in Week 11 on Sunday, setting team-highs in receptions (seven), targets (eight) and receiving yards (78). With Denver's offense improving greatly under the leadership of rookie quarterback Bo Nix after a slow start in 2024, Sutton has slowly risen up the receiver ranks in fantasy. The 29-year-old didn't have a single target in Week 7 against the Saints, but since then, he has 28 receptions for 370 yards and one touchdown on 38 targets. Sutton has only caught three TD passes in 11 games after going for a career-high 10 TDs in 2023, but because of the heavy volume as Nix's favorite aerial weapon, he is ascending to weekly WR2 territory. He'll have a great chance to continue his run in Week 12 against the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals kicker Evan McPherson went 3-for-3 on extra points but just 2-for-4 on field goals during Sunday's Week 11 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Both of his misses occurred in the fourth quarter and would have given Cincinnati an important lead. Instead, he missed the uprights wide left both times, preserving a tie that would eventually be broken by the Chargers in the final minute. McPherson's made field goals came from 26 and 27 yards out while he missed from 48 and 51 yards. The 25-year-old has ranked outside the top 15 fantasy kickers for most of this season and should continue to be avoided in most leagues when the Bengals return from their Week 12 bye.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall couldn't get anything going in a Week 11 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. The first-rounder was targeted twice but failed to bring in either pass. It's a bummer for anyone hoping Pearsall could build on his 15.3 half-PPR performance in Week 10, but shouldn't be a surprise. San Francisco's offense was never expected to support three receivers and Jauan Jennings strengthened his claim to the No. 2 -- or even No. 1 -- spot with a second-consecutive 11-target game. Pearsall is a decent stash in case Jennings runs into more injury trouble, but can't be trusted with a fantasy starting slot save for deep-league managers fishing for a touchdown. Pearsall will look to get back onto the stat sheet in Week 12 when he finds himself at Lambeau Field for a showdown with the Packers.
From RotoBaller