Tue May 28 9:03am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Robinson setup for big season
Using our rules for our money leagues, we came up with a schedule strength ranking for the running back position. We are using our fantasy defenses report to calculate the rankings. This report can be found in all of our leagues under the "reports" heading. We took the schedule of each team and entered the average number of fantasy points allowed to running backs last season from all of their opponents to get our fantasy points allowed number. This is a good indication of the running backs with the most favorable schedules for fantasy scoring for the coming season. Defenses obviously change from year to year, but knowing the running backs that might have the easiest schedule for fantasy is always a good idea when formulating your rankings and draft strategy.
RB SOS | ||
1. | Green Bay Packers | 356.01 |
2. | Houston Texans | 361.46 |
3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 361.46 |
4. | Las Vegas Raiders | 361.48 |
5. | Seattle Seahawks | 362.28 |
6. | Buffalo Bills | 363.19 |
7. | Arizona Cardinals | 363.76 |
8. | Dallas Cowboys | 363.9 |
9. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 364.51 |
10. | Washington Commanders | 364.86 |
11. | Chicago Bears | 364.89 |
12. | Indianapolis Colts | 365.41 |
13. | San Francisco 49ers | 365.86 |
14. | New Orleans Saints | 366.49 |
15. | New York Jets | 368.23 |
16. | Detroit Lions | 368.49 |
17. | Philadelphia Eagles | 369.05 |
18. | Minnesota Vikings | 369.06 |
19. | Carolina Panthers | 369.88 |
20. | Cleveland Browns | 370.34 |
21. | Kansas City Chiefs | 371.71 |
22. | New York Giants | 372.21 |
23. | Los Angeles Chargers | 373.19 |
24. | Denver Broncos | 373.32 |
25. | Cincinnati Bengals | 373.66 |
26. | Los Angeles Rams | 374.09 |
27. | Baltimore Ravens | 374.16 |
28. | New England Patriots | 375.60 |
29. | Atlanta Falcons | 376.19 |
30. | Miami Dolphins | 377.49 |
31. | Tennessee Titans | 378.2 |
32. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 378.72 |
The two teams with the easiest fantasy schedules for running backs are the Steelers and Titans, which is interesting because both teams could platoon running backs. The Steelers split the work between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. And the Titans are likely to use both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. All four backs could be setup for solid seasons with favorable schedules. It is always scary to take a back that might split work but seeing these positive schedules could make pulling the trigger on them a little easier come draft day. All four could be top flex plays for fantasy teams.
The Dolphins had huge success running the ball last year and could have similar solid production this season with the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs. Devon Achane is really looking good in year two. He is expected to get more work and likely lead the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert had a career season last year and a great schedule but he carries a little more risk. He is 32 years old and now has rookie Jaylen Wright pushing him for playing time. Just something to keep in mind come draft day.
The Falcons are another team with a top-five favorable running back schedule, making Bijan Robinson a very intriguing pick this year. Robinson had a bit of a disappointing rookie season, but a new coaching staff and really favorable schedule make Robinson a huge breakout candidate. He is moving up draft rankings in a hurry and is capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring because of his skill set.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a possible rebound candidate. He was slowed by injury last year but is back healthy and with the fifth easiest schedule for running backs. Stevenson has shown in the past he can be a big-time fantasy back. Things are looking up for him this year, making him a good buy-low candidate.
The Packers had the easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks but get the toughest for running backs. This isn’t great news for new back Josh Jacobs. It is hard to bet against the productive back, though. You just might want to temper expectations for him this coming year. Jacobs could have a few down weeks, especially for his standards.
The Texans signed Joe Mixon to shore up their running back spot, but he carries some concerns. He wasn’t highly productive the last few seasons besides all his scores and now gets the second toughest schedule for running backs. Plus, the Texans are likely to be a pass heavy team, which could limit his workload a little. Mixon could end up being a boom or bust player.
Tampa also has a unfavorable fantasy schedule for running backs. Rachaad White had a big season last year but padded his numbers because of all his work in the passing game. That might be a similar scenario for him, having a tough time to run with this schedule. The positive for White is he is very good in the passing game. You have to worry about his rushing totals, though.
The Raiders haven’t really settled on a starting running back, but Zamir White is likely to get first shot at the job. That is great news for his fantasy value but the not so great news is his tough fantasy schedule. This could limit the ceiling of White a little. He has risk to begin with because it isn’t 100 percent certain he wins the job. This makes him a bit of a scary pick for fantasy teams.
Kenneth Walker didn’t have quite the breakout second season many hoped but was fairly productive with his work. And the good news is Zach Charbonnet didn’t really put a big dent in his workload. The Seahawks seem happy with Walker as the lead back. The unfortunate news for Walker is he has the fifth toughest fantasy running back schedule. Walker might fail to reach his lofty expectations once again in year three.
We also wanted to look at playoff schedules for fantasy running backs. So we crunched the numbers of all the schedules from Week 14-17, which is the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. We know you have to get to the playoffs first, but knowing the running backs with the easiest playoff schedules doesn’t hurt by any means, especially in the big money contests.
RB PLAYOFF SOS | ||
1. | San Francisco 49ers | 291.43 |
2. | Washington Commanders | 325.2 |
3. | Houston Texans | 327.8 |
4. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 332.03 |
5. | New York Jets | 337.57 |
6. | Cleveland Browns | 340.8 |
7. | Las Vegas Raiders | 341.1 |
8. | Miami Dolphins | 348.27 |
9. | Chicago Bears | 350.37 |
10. | Buffalo Bills | 350.53 |
11. | Arizona Cardinals | 352.8 |
12. | Dallas Cowboys | 358.87 |
13. | Detroit Lions | 359.7 |
14. | New York Giants | 365.67 |
15. | Kansas City Chiefs | 366.53 |
16. | Green Bay Packers | 368.97 |
17. | Seattle Seahawks | 370.23 |
18. | Carolina Panthers | 377.15 |
19. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 378.37 |
20. | Los Angeles Chargers | 380.73 |
21. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 381 |
22. | Baltimore Ravens | 381.43 |
23. | Cincinnati Bengals | 383.50 |
24. | Philadelphia Eagles | 391.07 |
25. | New England Patriots | 397.95 |
26. | Indianapolis Colts | 398.40 |
27. | Denver Broncos | 399.53 |
28. | Tennessee Titans | 401.63 |
29. | Los Angeles Rams | 403.92 |
30. | New Orleans Saints | 406.33 |
31. | Minnesota Vikings | 407.87 |
32. | Atlanta Falcons | 422.4 |
There are two teams with a top-five favorable schedule for fantasy running backs for both the regular season and playoffs. Those teams are the Falcons and Titans. Atlanta actually has the easiest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. Robinson was looking good even before hearing this news but looks even better now. He is making a strong case to be the second running back off the board come draft day.
And Pollard and Spears are intriguing running back options with schedules that could produce big for both during the regular season and playoffs. You just have to worry about one back emerging to grab most of the work. If that happens, one of these backs could end up being a bust.
Minnesota has the second easiest playoff schedule for running backs. Aaron Jones has some injury concerns after the last few seasons, but he could be setup for a big workload with an unsettled quarterback situation in Minnesota. Jones has some good upside with his new team, especially during the playoffs.
One other team to mention for the playoff is New Orleans. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger but remains the lead back and still productive. He still seems to have something left in the tank and could be a big fantasy factor for at least one more season, especially when it matters most in the playoffs. He could be a difference maker, having the third easiest fantasy schedule for running backs.
Houston is the lone team in both the top five for the toughest regular season and playoff fantasy running back schedules. This is an obvious concern for Mixon. He is looking more and more like a player you might to avoid come draft day. He might have some big games along the way in this great offense, but you have to wonder about his consistency and playoff performance.
So the top rated fantasy back, Christian McCaffrey, also has the toughest fantasy playoff schedule for running backs. You aren’t fading McCaffrey because of this. He is one of those rare backs that it doesn’t really matter who he plays. McCaffrey will produce. We still think he is the clear No. 1 fantasy back. He can still get it done in the playoffs.
Washington has Brian Robinson and Austin Ekekler likely splitting the work at running back, which hurts both their fantasy values. They also get the second most difficult playoff schedule for running backs. We wouldn’t reach too early for either back because of this.
The Steelers have the easiest fantasy running back schedule during the playoffs but fourth toughest for the playoffs. This is a tough one. Both backs have potential for good things, showing they can co-exist last year and produce well for fantasy teams. You just have to wonder if fading in the playoffs will make all that good work during the regular season all for nothing.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 18
In a season where injuries have decimated the New Orleans Saints offense, tight end Foster Moreau finds himself as the team's unlikely leader in receiving touchdowns with five. Moreau has found the end zone twice in the last three weeks, most recently in Week 17 on an impressive 30-yard heave from rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler. Rattler will be under center again on Sunday and could lean on Moreau again to pick up the slack left by a depleted offense. Chris Olave (concussion) practiced in full all week but is listed as questionable for the season finale against Tampa Bay, as is fellow tight end Juwan Johnson (knee). Moreau had two catches for 54 yards when the Saints last faced the Buccaneers back in Week 6. Moreau should be good for a chunk gain or two against a Tampa defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season and could push his way into the TE2 conversation with another touchdown.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints kicker Blake Grupe was perfect in Week 17, hitting his lone extra point and a 34-yard field goal try. On the season he is 30-for-32 for extra point attempts and has converted 23 of his 27 field goal attempts. All of those misses have come from 40 yards out or further. Grupe won't be kicking in the comfort of a dome in Week 18 but he will have good weather conditions when the Saints travel to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers. That said, Grupe should probably be avoided for fantasy purposes. Since their Week 12 bye, the Saints have averaged just 11.4 points per game. Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler will be at the helm again in the season finale. The Saints have had a hard time sustaining drives since he took over for Derek Carr (hand), which means there is less of a chance for Grupe to get on the field. Grupe has a good leg and can be of service when called upon but the Saints' woes on offense should steer fantasy managers elsewhere in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler will get one more go under center in the regular season finale. Regular starter Derek Carr (hand) did not practice this week and will be held out of the team's final game. Last week, Rattler looked incredible for the first half, going 11-for-13 with a touchdown and his only incompletions coming on a drop and a throwaway. His second half was disastrous, though, featuring nine completions on 23 attempts, two interceptions, and three sacks. New Orleans is faced with another opportunity to get their fifth-round pick some live-game experience and can be expected to give him a long leash once again. Fantasy managers should avoid the erratic rookie in Week 18, even against the QB-friendly Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Thanks to an abundance of injuries, the Saints have almost no recognizable names left on offense, leaving Rattler with remarkably little help.
From RotoBaller
Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be active on Sunday according to interim head coach Darren Rizzi. With Kendre Miller (concussion) out and Alvin Kamara (groin) doubtful, Edward-Helaire should factor into the run game alongside Jamaal Williams as he did in Week 17. Last week, CEH led the team in rushing attempts with five after Miller was forced out of the game in the second quarter due to his head injury. In comments to the media on Friday, Rizzi complimented Edwards-Helaire's ability to learn the offense so quickly and said that he was impressed with his work ethic and determination. With CEH having joined New Orleans only two weeks ago and Williams being largely ineffective as a rusher this season, it is hard to say who will emerge as the primary back in Week 18's matchup against the Buccaneers. Jordan Mims may also mix in, making all three backs easy fades in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Jamaal Williams should see an uptick in usage in Week 18, with Kendre Miller (concussion) out and Alvin Kamara (groin) doubtful. That may not translate to fantasy value, though, as Williams has done little in the sporadic opportunities he has seen. In 13 games this season, Williams has 40 carries for 149 yards and one touchdown. Even after Miller's exit in the second quarter last week, Williams was outsnapped and outgained by the recently signed Clyde Edwards-Helaire, though his snap share was the highest he had seen since Week 8. Williams may be utilized more as a pass-catcher with Chris Olave (concussion) listed as questionable and the remaining wide receiver ranks thin on talent. Even though injuries have cleared a path up the depth chart for him, Williams will still be vying for touches with CEH and Jordan Mims, making him easy to avoid in fantasy leagues that are still active in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
After opening the week with a limited session, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (chest) practiced in full for a second consecutive day and has no designation going into the team's Week 18 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 30-year-old was sidelined in Week 16 due to a combination of a back issue and illness that interrupted his rehab. In Week 17, he was active though a massive hit in the fourth quarter took him out of the game early. Even though he will be active, it will be hard to rely on MVS for fantasy purposes. His success earlier this season was tied to touchdowns and big gains on deep passes. In his three biggest games he racked up 232 yards and four touchdowns but did so on just ten targets. Spencer Rattler will be under center again for the season finale and while he has shown decent arm strength as a spot starter, his accuracy (or lack thereof) will not do MVS any favors. His potential would be further dampened by the return of Chris Olave (concussion) who is listed as questionable. Valdes-Scantling was a bright spot for a few weeks in 2024 but he should not be in a starting lineup in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (knee) was limited in practice all week and is listed as questionable on the team's final injury report ahead of Sunday's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite the slough of injuries that sapped the Saints of depth at wide receiver and running back, Johnson has mustered a lackluster 44-468-3 line through 16 games. Week 17 brought about a change for the better as he led the team in receptions, targets, and yards, catching six of 10 passes sent his way for 66 yards. Alvin Kamara (groin) is doubtful and Chris Olave (concussion) is listed as questionable, which leaves room for Johnson to have another productive day, especially with Spencer Rattler under center once again. Johnson is in the best position on the hard-luck Saints to return fantasy value in Week 18, though anyone starting him must be in a pretty desperate situation to do so.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud III has seen his role fade recently, catching just a single pass in two of the last three contests, but could be in line for an uptick in productivity if Darnell Mooney (shoulder) were to miss Sunday's contest after being limited Thursday and not practicing on Friday. Despite the recent slump, McCloud III has had a career year, setting highs in receptions (58) and yards (620), and on Sunday he'll take on a Panthers defense that is middle-of-the-pack in limiting fantasy production to opposing wide receivers, but just last week allowed five touchdown receptions, four of which went to WRs (one went to a TE). The 28-year-old is probably a WR5 at best if Mooney plays, but if not, he could see a bump all the way to a borderline WR3/4 or Flex option if Mooney misses the game.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London will look to finish strong on Sunday after a 100-yard game last week put him over 1,000 yards receiving for the season. The 23-year-old has seen 21 targets and logged 12 receptions over the last two weeks with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. under center. Although he hasn't caught a touchdown from the lefty QB, he had a near-miss last week and the 6-foot-4 wideout hasn't seen a drop off in production with the rookie throwing him the ball. The USC product was limited in practice earlier this week but is expected to play; Darnell Mooney (shoulder), however, looks like he's on the wrong side of questionable after a limited session Thursday and a DNP on Friday, which would further solidify London's role as No. 1 receiver in a must-win game. The third-year pro sets up nicely in a matchup versus the Panthers who he logged a 6-74-1 line against in Week 6, but with the Falcons likely to lean on the run game, London looks more like a high-end WR2.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers defense/special teams unit will close out the 2024 campaign against the Cardinals in Arizona. To the surprise of nobody the 49ers did fantasy managers no favors in Week 17, sacking Detroit's Jared Goff twice but forcing no turnovers and allowing 40 offensive points. San Francisco has it easier in Week 18, facing a Cardinals offense that is nearly exactly average in points per game. They've performed similarly in turnovers lost while being eighth-stingiest in sacks allowed. San Francisco's starting defense is mostly healthy, with nickel Deommodore Lenoir (shoulder) out, linebacker Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (calf) doubtful, and safety Ji'Ayir Brown (ankle) questionable. Arizona's offense has a tackle and a wideout listed as questionable, but more importantly, both of their top running back options -- James Conner and Trey Benson -- are on Injured Reserve. The 49ers are RotoBaller's 11th-ranked option in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers kicker Jake Moody will spend the final game of his turbulent 2024 season in Arizona to face the Cardinals. The former third-round pick has had a rough couple of weeks. In Week 18 against Detroit, Moody missed field goals from 51 and 58 yards, while missing one extra point out of five chances. In Week 17 against Miami, Moody missed from 41 yards after hitting from 21 yards while connecting on both extra-point attempts. Moody had accuracy issues on the road even before that, which makes Sunday an important chance to demonstrate competence ahead of the 2025 campaign. Arizona has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to kickers this season. Moody -- tenuously clinging to his job -- is RotoBaller's 15th-ranked kicker in Week 18.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet hasn't been a reliable fantasy option throughout the 2024-25 campaign. He finished last year by catching a career-high 73 passes for 719 yards while amassing six touchdowns. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old has struggled this season, totaling 45 grabs for 471 yards and four touchdowns. To be fair, the Bears offense hasn't been the best. However, Kmet can't be trusted in Week 18 versus the Packers, so fantasy managers can keep him out of the lineup. The same can be said for those considering his services for DFS contests.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore had the best season of his career in 2023-24, amassing career-highs in receptions (96), yards (1,364), and touchdowns (eight). However, his production has decreased significantly during his second year in the Windy City. With the Bears capping off a miserable season on Sunday against the Packers, Moore will be looking for his first trip to the end zone since the Thanksgiving loss to the Detroit Lions. Without question, fantasy managers can't keep him out of the starting lineup in Week 18. Still, Moore hasn't been as reliable this year, so he remains a risky fantasy option.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers backup tight end Eric Saubert could make his fourth start of the season in Week 18 at the Arizona Cardinals. Starter George Kittle (ankle, hamstring) is listed as questionable. To date in 2024, Saubert has caught seven of nine targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. Saubert's fantasy ceiling was established in Week 2 of 2022 when he caught one of two targets for a 22-yard touchdown as a member of the Denver Broncos. The eighth-year pro has been a career fantasy nonfactor, though in Week 16 at Miami -- with Kittle on the field -- he caught his third-career touchdown. Arizona has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR points per game to tight ends. If Kittle plays, Saubert is unplayable. He's barely more than that if Kittle sits, other than as a bargain-bin DFS shot-in-the-dark.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen is nowhere near the player he once was. However, his first season in Chicago hasn't been a total wash. He's appeared in 14 games, which is a blessing in itself. The wideout also has 67 catches for 719 yards and seven touchdowns, which is better than expected, considering the Bears have first-year quarterback Caleb Williams under center. With Chicago limping to the finish line, the team will look for a strong end to the 2024-25 campaign versus the Packers in Week 18. Unlike Allen's days in Los Angeles, he's no longer an automatic fantasy starter. Still, there is no denying he can get hot, so he warrants consideration for any fantasy lineup.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants running back Devin Singletary found the end zone in two of his first three games to begin the 2024-25 campaign. However, he eventually lost the No. 1 job to rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. Things haven't changed, with Singletary getting sporadic work from week-to-week, including amassing just five carries in the win over the Colts in Week 17. It doesn't appear as if head coach Brian Daboll will waive the white flag to close out the season when the Giants play the Eagles on Sunday. As a result, it should be business as usual, with Tracy getting the bulk of the carries and Singletary looking for his leftover scraps.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. has had some quality outings throughout his first season in the National Football League. He's appeared in all 16 games for the G-Men, amassing 780 yards and five touchdowns off 178 carries, adding 36 catches for 277 yards and a score. There are some things the rookie will need to improve moving ahead, specifically, his subpar 4.4 yards per carry. Still, Tracy has at least played well enough to warrant fantasy consideration from week-to-week. With the Giants looking to cap off a miserable season, Tracy will have one more chance to make a positive impression heading toward the offseason when the Giants meet the Eagles in Week 18. Head coach Brian Daboll seemingly implied the team was looking to remain competitive on Sunday. However, it's not entirely clear who will play for Philadelphia, meaning Tracy could have an easier path toward production if the Eagles rest some of their core players on the defensive side of the ball.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper (back) has been a part-time player since he arrived in upstate New York in Week 7. The veteran is listed on the injury report with a back issue but fully practiced on Thursday and Friday. Cooper hasn't played 55% or more of the team's snaps in any game this season. That will likely continue in Week 18. The Bills have clinched the second seed in the AFC playoffs. Head coach Sean McDermott said that starters will play a portion of the meaningless game against the New England Patriots. With uncertain playing time, Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback most of the game, and mediocre play in his time in Buffalo, Cooper shouldn't be anywhere near fantasy football or DFS lineups this weekend.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) turned a potential breakout candidate into a season-long disappointment. A recurring knee injury has kept him on the injury report but has not impacted his practice participation. Fresh off one of the worst games of his season, expectations for Kincaid have never been lower entering the regular season finale. The Bills have clinched the second seed in the AFC playoffs and have nothing to play for against the Patriots. Starters, like Dalton Kincaid, won't play their regular allotment of snaps. That includes quarterback Josh Allen, who will start the game but quickly depart. Mitchell Trubisky will take most of the snaps at quarterback. That makes Kincaid and the rest of the starting Buffalo pass-catchers impossible to trust for fantasy football or DFS lineups.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson has had the best season of his career in 2024-25. He's appeared in 16 games, amassing career-highs in receptions (83), targets (129), receiving yards (656), and touchdowns (three). However, the Giants lack of stability at the quarterback spot hasn't allowed him to reach his full potential. The Giants will finish off a miserable year against the Eagles on Sunday. Head coach Brian Daboll implied the team would remain competitive to close out the season. While that should mean Robinson will get his usual allotment of snaps, he's tough to trust with Drew Lock under center, even if the Eagles rest some of their studs on the defensive side of the ball.
From RotoBaller